The Pie Shop > Advice Required

gorgiebhoy

Oct 20 2008, 11:37

Had an accy on this weekend-

Ipswich v Swansea Draw (21/10)

Cheltenam v Scunthorpe (21/20)

Falkirk v Aberdeen (13/8)

Hamilton v St Mirren (9/5)

Newcastle v Man City (7/4)

£1 on returns £128.45, as you can see its doing rather well with me only needing Newcastle

to win!

I was thinking of hedging my bets by maybe staking a small amount on the draw and/or Man City just to make sure i was in profit no matter what, any advice on how much i shud put on each? Not feeling confident with Joe Kinnears barmy army anyway!

Fudge

Oct 20 2008, 12:08

Lay Newcastle at Betfair, the amount you lay would depend on how confident you are of them winning.

gorgiebhoy

Oct 20 2008, 12:23

Yeah i reckon thats what i'll do, not confident in a Newcastle win at all but you never know!

Michael W

Oct 20 2008, 12:57

I take it you ticked the wrong box for the Newcastle game?

McMuffin

Oct 20 2008, 12:58

For christ sake lay them before the game. Once it starts and the inevitable collapse happens their odds will skyrocket and your potential profit will go to shit.

Haitch

Oct 20 2008, 13:15

QUOTE (gorgiebhoy @ Oct 20 2008, 12:37)

Had an accy on this weekend-

Ipswich v Swansea Draw (21/10)

Cheltenam v Scunthorpe (21/20)

Falkirk v Aberdeen (13/8)

Hamilton v St Mirren (9/5)

Newcastle v Man City (7/4)

£1 on returns £128.45, as you can see its doing rather well with me only needing Newcastle

to win!

I was thinking of hedging my bets by maybe staking a small amount on the draw and/or Man City just to make sure i was in profit no matter what, any advice on how much i shud put on each? Not feeling confident with Joe Kinnears barmy army anyway!

Well done on the results so far. If I was you I would not want to lay off all my winnings at the moment. What I would do however is back the draw for £20 at approx 5/2.

That way if Newcastle win you win £108.45. But you now have a saftey net if it is a draw as you would return £70. Depends how you feel though. If you want you could stick the £18.45 on Man City at 2/1.

This way you are guaranteed to win £55 in man City win. £70 if draw and you can still cheer on the home win which will net you £90.

A nice position by anyones standards.

Let us know what you decide to do.

Latino Lover

Oct 20 2008, 13:15

Good coupon for a £1 however schoolboy error picking a Monday game on your coupon, I'm going tonight, can see it being a struggle for goals without Owen, Guiterrez and a semi-fit Oba leading the line.

AndyBud

Oct 20 2008, 13:18

Lay Newcastle on Betfair (assuming they're around 2.75) for £47. No matter the result you'll be guaranteed a profit of £43.

Haitch

Oct 20 2008, 13:21

Disagree with that AndyBud.

He initially backed Newcastle. You should leave some extra reward by winning more on the home win.

Latino Lover

Oct 20 2008, 13:24

another option would be to back Man City to open the scoring, if Newcastle score first you will get much better odds to lay them.

gorgiebhoy

Oct 20 2008, 13:24

Cheers for advice so far!

Got a practical at uni at 3 so i'll mull it over for a couple of hours then decide! Want Newcastle to win regardless of bets, dont like Man City!

AndyBud

Oct 20 2008, 13:28

QUOTE (Haitch @ Oct 20 2008, 14:21)

Disagree with that AndyBud.

He initially backed Newcastle. You should leave some extra reward by winning more on the home win.

Personally I'd rather take the maximum guaranteed profit, without worrying about the result

Haitch

Oct 20 2008, 13:57

Cant agree with that either.

So in this situation what would you do?

Man Utd v Celtic - Draw 5/1
Chelsea v Roma - Draw 3/1

£10 double.

If both results come in you win £240.

Celtic draw 1-1 with man Utd. You now have £60 going onto Chelsea to draw at 3/1. Are you saying you would lay the draw for £15 therefore locking in a £5 profit rather than let it ride for the chance to make £240 ?

AndyBud

Oct 20 2008, 14:04

QUOTE (Haitch @ Oct 20 2008, 14:57)

Cant agree with that either.

So in this situation what would you do?

Man Utd v Celtic - Draw 5/1
Chelsea v Roma - Draw 3/1

£10 double.

If both results come in you win £240.

Celtic draw 1-1 with man Utd. You now have £60 going onto Chelsea to draw at 3/1. Are you saying you would lay the draw for £15 therefore locking in a £5 profit rather than let it ride for the chance to make £240 ?

No, what I'm saying is that I'd take the guaranteed, maximised profit of £43.

I'm not quite sure what your hypothetical double has to do with advising the poster on potential ways to mitigate the risk on his 5 team accumulator.

In this example why would I only lay the draw for £15?

I could guarantee myself a profit of roughly £45, by laying at £55.

GavMan_AUFC_1910

Oct 20 2008, 14:21

QUOTE (gorgiebhoy @ Oct 20 2008, 14:24)

Cheers for advice so far!

Got a practical at uni at 3 so i'll mull it over for a couple of hours then decide! Want Newcastle to win regardless of bets, dont like Man City!

For me I'd take into consideration how much I really need some spare cash. Ok when you put the bet on you thought Newcastle would win but if you could really do with £43 in your pocket then do that! Another wayof looking at it is, if Newcastle don't win then you have actually only lost £1.

I've taken Man City on my coupon.

dubs

Oct 20 2008, 14:25

I suggest you strap a pair on and leave it as it is.

gorgiebhoy

Oct 20 2008, 18:08

The fact that i cant find my bank card anywhere has made my mind up, no more bets just gonna pray to god Newcastle win

roland sausage

Oct 20 2008, 21:08

Oooft. Unlucky mate!

Haitch

Oct 20 2008, 21:14

Ouch. Unlucky. I had £20 on Newcastle myself. Gutted.

Andybud, I know what your saying but still disagree.

AndyBud

Oct 21 2008, 07:38

QUOTE (Haitch @ Oct 20 2008, 22:14)

Ouch. Unlucky. I had £20 on Newcastle myself. Gutted.

Andybud, I know what your saying but still disagree.

The numbers you provided in your hypothetical double tell me you probably don't know what I'm saying.

Fudge

Oct 21 2008, 16:43

In a situation like this, I think AndyBud is right because Man City were more likely to not lose the game, than Newcastle were to win it. Had Newcastle been evens or less, then I could see why you would want to leave the possibility of Newcatle winning as bringing in more money than if they hand't.

AndyBud

Oct 22 2008, 12:51

QUOTE (Fudge @ Oct 21 2008, 17:43)

In a situation like this, I think AndyBud is right because Man City were more likely to not lose the game, than Newcastle were to win it. Had Newcastle been evens or less, then I could see why you would want to leave the possibility of Newcatle winning as bringing in more money than if they hand't.

To be honest I was just putting the option out there for the OP. He asked for ideas, and got them, which is why I was suprised Haitch could "disagree" when its as valid an option as any of his were. It's really just about the risk the OP was willing to take, and how much he wanted to hedge his bets. As it turns out he went for maximum risk/maximum expected return.

Haitch's crazy example of a Man Utd/Chelsea double didn't do him any favours though.

McMuffin

Oct 22 2008, 13:11

It doesn't matter that Andy Bud (and all the others suggesting the lay) was proved right, he was right regardless of the result. The OP and especially Haitch are fools.

Haitch

Oct 22 2008, 13:23

lol OK... I will try and explain. I was trying to reply directly to your statement of you would take the guaranteed profit.

I was trying to be a smart arse and say that if you placed a double and the first one came in you would green up and lay the 2nd leg of your bet to lock in the winnings.

Basically, what is the point of doing a five fold if you are just going to lay the 5th bet if they all come in. May as well just do a 4 fold. But would you lay off your 4th choice. Or a treble, double or even single, would you green up if your selection went 1-0 up.

What I was saying was instead of laying Newcastle he should have let the bet run. If it comes in you win the most. Also, cover the draw, if that comes in you win slightly less and yes you could even back the away win to win slightly less.

Perhaps it is just the shit or bust you dont like but as I say there are ways round that like what I said above or even back the 1 four fold and 4 trebles.

My Man U / Chelsea bet was garbage. Point accepted

Just dont see the point in closing the bet off.

Haitch

Oct 22 2008, 13:25

QUOTE (McMuffin @ Oct 22 2008, 14:11)

It doesn't matter that Andy Bud (and all the others suggesting the lay) was proved right, he was right regardless of the result. The OP and especially Haitch are fools.

WTF you on about? Care to expand on this?

AndyBud

Oct 22 2008, 13:35

QUOTE (Haitch @ Oct 22 2008, 14:23)

lol OK... I will try and explain. I was trying to reply directly to your statement of you would take the guaranteed profit.

I was trying to be a smart arse and say that if you placed a double and the first one came in you would green up and lay the 2nd leg of your bet to lock in the winnings.

Basically, what is the point of doing a five fold if you are just going to lay the 5th bet if they all come in. May as well just do a 4 fold. But would you lay off your 4th choice. Or a treble, double or even single, would you green up if your selection went 1-0 up.

What I was saying was instead of laying Newcastle he should have let the bet run. If it comes in you win the most. Also, cover the draw, if that comes in you win slightly less and yes you could even back the away win to win slightly less.

Perhaps it is just the shit or bust you dont like but as I say there are ways round that like what I said above or even back the 1 four fold and 4 trebles.

My Man U / Chelsea bet was garbage. Point accepted

Just dont see the point in closing the bet off.

McMuffin - for your information Gorgubhoy lost his bet as he did not lay off or buy in any insurance. So do us a favour and f**k off. Thanks.

Well its all answered by risk, and how much Gorgubhoy wants to take. He took a large risk on backing a 125/1 bet. He had the option 4/5 of the way through this to reduce his risk to nil and accept 45/1. He could also take the option of laying at however much he felt he wanted to risk (he could have for example given himself a "free bet" by laying just enough to cover his initial stake). More risk, the bigger the expected return.

It would be silly to lay off on a double (unless the reason for backing the 2nd part of it, changed dramatically), as you'd effectively get a lower return than if you had just backed the single.

It's also nothing to do with whether I like "sh*t or bust". It was just an offer of another suggestion for Gorgubhoy. Some occassions I'd go down the route I suggested and others I'd not.

Haitch

Oct 22 2008, 13:40

At the end of the day, it was advice he was asking for and he received your and my opinion. I do agree though, different situations require different actions.

Turns out he chose not to take either of us up and lost the lot.

Fudge

Oct 22 2008, 14:53

I think the real mistake was backing Newcastle in their current state in the first place

gorgiebhoy

Oct 25 2008, 11:03

Still scunnered ended up spending £50 drowning my sorrows!! Get it up you Rob Styles!!!