QUOTE(Radford @ Sep 6 2006, 22:28) [snapback]1182198[/snapback]
Why?
Andy Gray called it spot on earlier. After Saturday's result, our hope has to be France scud everyone (ourselves excepted) and that gives us the best chance of qualifying. If we now match Italy's results, they need to beat us in both games to finish ahead of us. Considering they drew at home with Lithuania and have lost away to France, we have a shot at doing that.
I don't agree, and didn't when I heard Andy Gray say it either.
I can see the theory no problem, ie that France beat everyone and we ONLY need worry about outpointing Ukraine (who are being very conveniently ignored at the minute) and Italy. But I don't think it's practical. At best it leaves us trying to nick one spot with two other sides in the hunt for it.
I much prefer our chances of getting one of two spots available in a four team melee for it. To be honest even now it's too early to get carried away with our chances. We've beaten the worst two sides in the group. But if we're to have any chance at all then we'd obviously be better with our three closest rivals dropping as many points in total as possible. Last night France got three. Had it been a draw they'd have got one each (two in total) and both dropped points. France, despite their world cup final soiree are not world beaters and were fortunate to even qualify for Germany ahead of Israel and Ireland. They won't go through the group winning every game (hopefully starting at Hampden) and I don't think we should want them to do so yet. Obviously if in time it becomes clear they are going to qualify then we will need them to start beating everybody.