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Sorry just noticed these questions.

Since I wrote that things have changed again. The withdrawal from the UK of Pinnacle Sports on November 1st 2014 makes betting on American sports and tennis much more difficult for me. In fact betting on anything is tricky now. I'm right at the threshold of Betfair's Premium Charge, most bookmakers won't take a bet (or at least not for more than pocket change) and other exchanges have no liquidity. I was betting heavily on baseball and tennis at one point, but I stopped needing the money so the antisocial hours saw me give those up even before Pinnacle Sport's withdrawal.

Not at all. The only problem for me is getting bets on. The mechanics of betting is just the same, except perhaps the bookmakers aren't as clueless on certain lower leagues as they were 10 years ago.
Bookmakers make too much money from idiots, games of chance and poker. They won't take bets from anyone who remotely looks like they know what they're doing. Betfair's exchange is slowly going down the toilet as it doesn't make them enough money, and thus they have increased their charges while liquidity suffers on various markets. If I could bet as much money as I wanted at the advertised odds all the time, I'd have been long since sitting on my own tropical island drinking cocktails.

Do you think there's a bright future for the exchange, whether its Betfair or someone else?

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It's a difficult one. You have to have liquidity to attract customers, but if you have no customers to start with, where does the liquidity come from? Sporting Options by 2004 were trying to compete with Betfair but were seeding their own markets with money they did not have. They quickly went bankrupt because people were just picking off their good odds and making a lot of money, at Sporting Options' expense as it turned out. Betfair have such a dominant position that it is still hard for anyone else to properly compete. Matchbook have had decent liquidity on some American sports markets over the years, but are seriously lacking everywhere else. I'm not entirely comfortable depositing large sums of money there either as something has always seemed not quite right.

The problem with Betfair was the advent of the Premium Charge, brought on because of their floatation. Some people were making enormous sums of money while paying very little commission. Betfair's argument was that it was costing them millions of pounds spent on marketing to replace this money in the exchange so there had to be an additional charge. A lot of these people were tennis "courtsiders" or people otherwise beating the time delay in-running. People not betting in-running should not be subject to additional charges but any exchange that is going to be a success has to make enough money from their commission charges and finding the correct balance is not easy. As you can see with all of Betfair's TV adverts these days, it's all about nonsense stuff like cashing out accumulators because they've decided there is more money to be made from being a bookmaker. Understandable I suppose as most people lose and they have a large customer base to milk.

Sadly people who win a lot from gambling have virtually nowhere to turn these days.

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  • 3 months later...

apologies if this has been posted already but i thought these maxims are worth a read by anyone who likes a bet.

Mistakes are the portals of discovery. James Joyce - Irish author (1882 - 1941)

When everybody thinks alike, everyone is likely to be wrong.

Losers think of selecting the winner and beating a race. Professionals think of betting for value and beating the races.

Never succumb to anyone who just wants to let you know what you are doing will never work.

Don't fall foul of the favourite/longshot bias i.e. horses with short odds (i.e., favourites) tend to win even more frequently than indicated by the final market odds, while horses with long odds (i.e., longshots) win less. So, during tissue compilation, don't underestimate the chances of preferred contenders and overestimate the changes of marginal contenders.

The best handicapping literature in the world are your own records.

The crowd is smart ... so let them do the handicapping and analyse them.

The difference between success and failure is small. Therefore you need to continually work to maintain your edge and continually work to improve your performance.

Successful punters think in terms of chances, not fancies and certainties. They try to assess the true chance of a horse in a race and bet on the basis of their evaluations.

Value is all-important - not winners. The secret is not getting more heads than tails; it's winning more when a coin comes up heads than you lose when it's tails.

Common sense dictates that you cannot outsmart the public if you are handicapping with the same information and methods as the public.

The successful punter never allows items of news, "whispers" or thoughts of others override his train of thought when assessing a race's runners for betting purposes.

Following the herd is fine until they all run off the side of a cliff together.

If you want to make money ... big money ... do what nobody else is doing.

To be a winner, one must know or perceive things which the public must not grasp. If there is no special insight then there will be no special odds, no bargains, no overlays; the more that information is used by the public, the less it pays off at the bookies.

To be successful you've got to have had some failures in your career - and learnt from them - otherwise you have probably been too conservative.

Picking winners is easy. Beating the odds is not.

In order to make money betting on sports, you must either have information that is not being used by the betting public, or you must have a superior ability to process the information that is public

"The aim of any entrepreneur is to make more money than you lose" - Theo Paphitis

Knowing the moment to sell is what separates the successful entrepreneur from the also-ran. According to George Soros's son, the hedge fund billionaire sells out when his back starts playing up.

The market is incredibly efficient; don't buck the analysis done by others who determine the market.


Punting Maxims of the Form-Pro

The Form-Pro's personal philosophies and ideas about successful punting published so far. The result of years of study, research and punting experience, these tips should immediately improve your bottom line!

1. Proven class is always worth more than potential class. All other things being equal prefer the horse that has already proven itself in the class of today's race.

2. Don't underestimate the importance of form consistency. Regardless of their last start performance; be wary of horses that have a habit of mixing their form from run to run.

3. Race pace has a major influence on the ability of a horse to carry weight over a given distance. A horse will be at a significant disadvantage if asked to carry more weight over more distance in a race with faster early pace.

4. Never discount the clear victories one horse has had over another in their previous runs. Unless there were "significant" excuses for the defeat and / or you expect the horse to notably improve under the new race conditions, it is most likely to be defeated again.

5. Don't be deceived by the "one-off" rating in a horse's previous form that indicates it should easily beat today's opposition. Unless the horse is young, on the way up and has already demonstrated some special talent, the rating is likely to be an aberration. Your bankroll will be in much better shape if you base your assessment on ratings more consistent with the horse's overall record.

6. Knowledge of a horse's ability or potential to compete at different class levels is the basis of effective form analysis. Always start your analysis of each horse with an assessment of its class relative to the race under consideration.

7. If you aspire to make consistent profits from racing a detailed knowledge of individual horses is essential. Spend time noting the characteristics and ability of individual horses in different conditions and you will be well rewarded.

8. Pay particular attention to how a horse finished off the final 50m of its race. A simple note of whether the horse was making, losing or holding ground during this period can prove vital when assessing its form in a future race.

9. The judgement and skill of a jockey is frequently the difference between winning and losing a race, especially on hold-up runners, biased tracks and horses drawn wide. Steer clear of poor and inexperienced jockeys on horses facing these difficult conditions and you will avoid many losing bets.

10. Pay particular attention to young, lightly raced horses that win with something in reserve. Quiet often they can continue to step up in class and string together a few more wins before they reach their class and weight peak.

11. Proven ability in wet going is vital. Horses that have yet to start on slow or heavy tracks represent high risk, regardless of how good other aspects of their form might be. Your bankroll will be much better off if you avoid them as betting propositions.

12. Making an income from racing is about playing the odds and taking advantage of profitable opportunities when they arise. Have the discipline to ignore favoured runners that represent poor value and courage to support others that represent higher value and you will drastically improve your bottom line.

13. When examining the potential disadvantages a horse must overcome to win a race, always consider its class relative to the class of opposition. Horses that have a class edge will often overcome difficulties to still go on and win. However horses that are racing at their class peak will most often only win when everything is in their favour.

Originally published on the Form-Pro website.


The Wisdom of Pittsburgh Phil

Pittsburgh Phil was a legendary US racing punter and his wise words apply to all forms of betting, not just racing in America.

A good jockey, a good horse, a good bet. A poor jockey, a good horse, a moderate bet. A good horse, a moderate jockey, a moderate bet.

A man who plays the races successfully must have opinions of his own and the strength to stick to them no matter what he hears.

Successful handicappers know every detail in regard to the horses upon which they are intending to place their money.

The minute that a man loses his balance on the race track he is like a horse that is trying to run away.

A man cannot divide his attention at the track between horses and women.

All consistently successful players of horses are men of temperate habits in life.

The racing man should arise in the morning cool and clear headed and should then take up the problem of the day.

Some horses will run good races over certain tracks, while in the same company under similar conditions on other tracks they will run very disappointingly. Study the likes and dislikes of a horse in regard to tracks.

If there are two or three very fast horses in a race, one or two of them will quit before the end of the journey. Hence look out for your intelligent jockey.

Many killings are attempted but few are accomplished.

In handicaps the top weights are at a disadvantage always unless they are very high class horses.

There are few trainers who can send a horse to the post the first time out in perfect condition.

One race for a horse is equal to two or three private trials.

Horses are the same as human beings where condition is the test of superiority.

Winners repeat frequently while the defeated are apt to be defeated almost continuously.

The majority of horses will go further over the turf than they will over the dirt course.

Mud runners are usually good on the turf.

Time enters into the argument under certain conditions but if depended entirely for a deduction it will be found wanting.

The ability to tell whether a horse is at its best before a race is acquired only after years of the closest kind of study.

Special knowledge is not a talent. A man must acquire it by hard work.

A horse that frets is a very dangerous betting proposition.

The majority of the riders and horses are game and will fight for victory no matter where they are placed.

Some jockeys excel on heavy tracks.

A good mud rider will frequently bring a bad horse home.

You cannot be a successful horse player if you are going to get the worst of the price all the time.

The basis of all speculation is the amount of profit to be obtained on an investment.

It is not always the heaviest wager that is collected. The weight of the bet does not make a horse win. A poor man's horse and his $10 speak as loudly as a $10,000 wager from a millionaire. It is the horse that must be considered.

The clocker is something like the scout in the army.

Honest horses, ridden by honest boys, are sometimes beaten by honest trainers. Instructions are given to the riders which mean sure defeat when intended to be the best.

The resistance of the wind is very great in a horse race and it is a correspondingly great when acting as a propeller. Wind and atmosphere have considerable effect on horses that are troubled in their respiratory organs.

Class in a horse is the ability possessed by it to carry its stipulated stake weight, take the track and go the distance that nature intended that it should go,

I figure that two-year-olds can give considerably more weight away to horses in their class, than can horses in the older division excepting in isolated areas.

There is enough natural inconsistency in horse racing without having it forced upon the public by unscrupulous men, yet there is not one-tenth of one per cent, as much crookedness on the turf as it is given credit for.

A horse that is not contented in his stable cannot take on flesh and be happy.

Every horse I ever owned improved after I had him long enough to study his disposition.

A horse expects to race if he is a thoroughbred, just the same as a game chicken is anxious to fight.

When you feel yourself getting out of form then take a rest and freshen up.

What is frequently right in form is wrong in condition. If a horse is not in good condition he might as well be in the stable.

Look for improvement of mares in the autumn of the year. They train better and more consistent.

There are mud riders as well as mud runners in the racing world.

A jockey should not be overloaded with instructions.

It is not bad speculation to pick out two or three sure looking bets and parlay a small amount.

Cut your bets when in a losing streak and increase them when running in a spasm of good luck.

Double your wagers when you have the bookmakers' money in hand.

Condition has more to do with a horse winning or losing a race than the weight it carries.

A horse in poor condition cannot beat one of his own class.

A high class horse could not win a race with a feather on his back if he is not in condition.

Watch all the horses racing closely. You may see something that will be of benefit later on.

It is well to play horses that are in winning form. A horse in winning condition generally repeats or runs into the money.

Different tracks cause decided changes in form frequently. Study horses' whims and fancies for certain tracks and you will see a good "lay" or a good "play." But a high class horse will do his best on any track.

The less one thinks of crookedness and trickery in racing the more successful will be his handicapping.

Look for defect in your own calculating rather than cheating of others.

Learn to finance your money to advantage.

Know when to put a good bet down and when not to.

-- From "Racing Maxims and Methods of Pittsburgh Phil," by Edward W. Cole

Wise words from financial experts

Originally written by Max Gunther, reprinted from www.bfportal.com. Initially written for financial trading, but just as relevant for sports punters and traders.

On Risk:
- Worry is not a sickness but a sign of health - if you are not worried, you are not risking enough.
- Always play for meaningful stakes - if an amount is so small that its loss won't make any significant difference, then it isn't likely to bring any significant gains either.
- Resist the allure of diversification.

On Greed:
- Always take your profit too soon.
- Decide in advance what gain you want from a venture, and when you get it, get out.

On Hope:
- When the ship starts sinking, don't pray. Jump.
- Accept small losses cheerfully as a fact of life. Expect to experience several while awaiting a large gain.

On Forecasts:
- Human behaviour cannot be predicted. Distrust anyone who claims to know the future, however dimly.

On Patterns:
- Chaos is not dangerous until it starts to look orderly.
- Beware the historian's trap - it is based on the age-old but entirely unwarranted belief that the orderly repetition of history allows for accurate forecasting in certain situations.
- Beware the chartist's illusion - it is characteristic of human minds to perceive links of cause and effect where none exist.
- Beware the gambler's fallacy - there's no such thing as "Today's my lucky day" or "I'm hot tonight".

On Mobility:
- Avoid putting down roots. They impede motion.
- Do not become trapped in a souring venture because of sentiments like loyalty and nostalgia.
- Never hesitate to abandon a venture if something more attractive comes into view.

On Intuition:
- A hunch can be trusted if it can be explained.
- Never confuse a hunch with a hope.

On the Occult:
- If astrology worked, all astrologers would be rich.
- A superstition need not be exorcised. It can be enjoyed, provided it is kept in its place.

On Optimism & Pessimism:
- Optimism means expecting the best, but confidence means knowing how you will handle the worst. Never make a move if you are merely optimistic.

On Consensus:
- Disregard the majority opinion. It is probably wrong.
- Never follow speculative fads. Often, the best time to buy something is when nobody else wants it.

On Stubbornness:
- If it doesn't pay off the first time, forget it.
- Never try to save a bad investment by "averaging down".

On Planning:
- Long-range plans engender the dangerous belief that the future is under control. It is important never to take your own long-range plans or other people's seriously. In essence these axioms point to the benefit of having an investment strategy and sticking to it, regardless of what other investors say or do. If you don't have an investment strategy, you could do worse than adopt these principles. However, don't be afraid to add or subtract ones according to what works for you.

https://betting.betfair.com/education/-generic-betting-principles/betting-maxims-1-110111.html

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  • 7 months later...
  • 2 weeks later...

Paddy Power works in Spain.

Anyone know of a good reliable proxy site to access UK gambling sites in Spain, in particular McBookies/Betvictor and Bet365? Don't mind paying a wee bit. Paddy Power's odds are usually shite in my experience, and I'm off for a week from Feb 6th with a bit of my daft audit thread still to complete.

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  • 2 months later...

It's a difficult one. You have to have liquidity to attract customers, but if you have no customers to start with, where does the liquidity come from? Sporting Options by 2004 were trying to compete with Betfair but were seeding their own markets with money they did not have. They quickly went bankrupt because people were just picking off their good odds and making a lot of money, at Sporting Options' expense as it turned out. Betfair have such a dominant position that it is still hard for anyone else to properly compete. Matchbook have had decent liquidity on some American sports markets over the years, but are seriously lacking everywhere else. I'm not entirely comfortable depositing large sums of money there either as something has always seemed not quite right. 

 

The problem with Betfair was the advent of the Premium Charge, brought on because of their floatation. Some people were making enormous sums of money while paying very little commission. Betfair's argument was that it was costing them millions of pounds spent on marketing to replace this money in the exchange so there had to be an additional charge. A lot of these people were tennis "courtsiders" or people otherwise beating the time delay in-running. People not betting in-running should not be subject to additional charges but any exchange that is going to be a success has to make enough money from their commission charges and finding the correct balance is not easy. As you can see with all of Betfair's TV adverts these days, it's all about nonsense stuff like cashing out accumulators because they've decided there is more money to be made from being a bookmaker. Understandable I suppose as most people lose and they have a large customer base to milk. 

 

Sadly people who win a lot from gambling have virtually nowhere to turn these days. 

What are your thoughts on Smarkets?

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Smarkets liquidity is actually better than I expected it to be when I signed up there. For football (match odds) and horse racing you seem to be looking at maybe 1/3 of the Betfair liquidity levels, but generally that's enough to get any kind of decent match. Goals markets on football aren't anywhere near the match odds liquidity though, it has to be said.

But at 2% conversion across the board I've been using them lots.

The website design has its good and bad points as well. It runs more smoothly in general than Betfair and is easier jumping from one big match to another, but sometimes it can be a bit of a challenge trying to find certain things inplay.

Edited by Nightmare
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I'm the same. Been using it a lot more than Betfair as the 2% is very fair and I don't bet enough to get my BF commission down to that level.

The website design frustrates me at times, but you're right, it does allow pages to load quicker. I've never had an issue with liquidity unless it's something really obscure and I don't tend to bet on much beyond 1X2, so I've no issues with the lack of coverage on goal markets either.

One feature I'd like them to develop is the cash-out Betfair has where it's automatically calculates your required lay stake and places that for you. Maybe that's just me being lazy though.

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  • 6 months later...
On 26/01/2015 at 15:15, blue4578 said:
Sorry just noticed these questions.
 

Since I wrote that things have changed again. The withdrawal from the UK of Pinnacle Sports on November 1st 2014 makes betting on American sports and tennis much more difficult for me. In fact betting on anything is tricky now. I'm right at the threshold of Betfair's Premium Charge, most bookmakers won't take a bet (or at least not for more than pocket change) and other exchanges have no liquidity. I was betting heavily on baseball and tennis at one point, but I stopped needing the money so the antisocial hours saw me give those up even before Pinnacle Sport's withdrawal.

 
Not at all. The only problem for me is getting bets on. The mechanics of betting is just the same, except perhaps the bookmakers aren't as clueless on certain lower leagues as they were 10 years ago.
 
Bookmakers make too much money from idiots, games of chance and poker. They won't take bets from anyone who remotely looks like they know what they're doing. Betfair's exchange is slowly going down the toilet as it doesn't make them enough money, and thus they have increased their charges while liquidity suffers on various markets. If I could bet as much money as I wanted at the advertised odds all the time, I'd have been long since sitting on my own tropical island drinking cocktails.
 

Unfortunately I've only just seen this. Hope blue is still around.

See,I'm fascinated by this answer because almost everywhere else I read that making a profit from football betting* isn't easy.Or as easy as it seems to be for blue that is.

So it seems to me that the most likely explanation is that blue has a great talent for soccer betting and because of this he is unaware that it's hard for nearly everyone else.

And my interest in this subject is such that I would like to know if this is true. My position is that I believe that  in fact betting on soccer isn't easy at all and that most markets are unbeatable.

But obviously blue will say that might well be because I can't beat them. 

But I think there's a way to try to find out if I'm right. I would ask blue if he wouldn't mind telling us how he became so brilliant at betting. I mean if he has always been able to do it that would suggest he's a genius since most bettors lose at first. If he also has say a first class degree in maths then that would pretty much confirm it.

 

And so I will personally still believe that I'm right and that only a tiny gifted minority can do this. BUT if it's far easier than I believe and blue isn't in fact a betting genius ,rather he learnt how to do it,then it would be wonderful for all of us I think if he could let us know how he learned to win from football.

 

Id love to know also whether stats are that useful -this may seem a stupid question to most but some bettors on forums insist they don't use them . And I do believe that there are exploitable situations ,it's just that they don't happen too often.

 

I have other questions but this post is long enough and I don't even know if blue is still around.

 

As I say I have a great interest in this.

 

I mentioned Tony Ansell before and one of the things he has claimed,I think I'm right in saying,is that people who can do what he dies are born not made.

So the point is if blue seems to confirm this then those of us who aren't winning after say 3 or 4 years if trying can just stop wasting out time and money.

(Yes I know many are doing it for entertainment but some really think they will win eventually)

*and in fact even trading football is supposed to be harder nowadays than it was although blue has already given an explanation for this to be fair

Edited by Mr pink
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1 hour ago, Mr pink said:

So the point is if those of us who aren't winning after say 3 or 4 years of trying can just stop wasting out time and money.

This. Why are you still trying?

Edited by welshbairn
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2 hours ago, Mr pink said:

Unfortunately I've only just seen this. Hope blue is still around.

See,I'm fascinated by this answer because almost everywhere else I read that making a profit from football betting* isn't easy.Or as easy as it seems to be for blue that is.

So it seems to me that the most likely explanation is that blue has a great talent for soccer betting and because of this he is unaware that it's hard for nearly everyone else.

And my interest in this subject is such that I would like to know if this is true. My position is that I believe that  in fact betting on soccer isn't easy at all and that most markets are unbeatable.

But obviously blue will say that might well be because I can't beat them. 

But I think there's a way to try to find out if I'm right. I would ask blue if he wouldn't mind telling us how he became so brilliant at betting. I mean if he has always been able to do it that would suggest he's a genius since most bettors lose at first. If he also has say a first class degree in maths then that would pretty much confirm it.

 

And so I will personally still believe that I'm right and that only a tiny gifted minority can do this. BUT if it's far easier than I believe and blue isn't in fact a betting genius ,rather he learnt how to do it,then it would be wonderful for all of us I think if he could let us know how he learned to win from football.

 

Id love to know also whether stats are that useful -this may seem a stupid question to most but some bettors on forums insist they don't use them . And I do believe that there are exploitable situations ,it's just that they don't happen too often.

 

I have other questions but this post is long enough and I don't even know if blue is still around.

 

As I say I have a great interest in this.

 

I mentioned Tony Ansell before and one of the things he has claimed,I think I'm right in saying,is that people who can do what he dies are born not made.

So the point is if blue seems to confirm this then those of us who aren't winning after say 3 or 4 years if trying can just stop wasting out time and money.

(Yes I know many are doing it for entertainment but some really think they will win eventually)

*and in fact even trading football is supposed to be harder nowadays than it was although blue has already given an explanation for this to be fair

I don't think Blue will tell you how he managed it, it's worth far money than the average paid tipsters receive.

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On 17 October 2016 at 01:48, Marr1 said:

I Turned 18 on Saturday, depoisited £10 in a McBookie account, now I have £24 in my account, I'm up!

I stick £50 in my McBookies account at the start of every season & just put a weekly fiver bet (usually) on a double win for my Scottish & English team, then at the end of the season, whatever is left I donate to the local economy (the Malt & Hops). 

Yesterday Spartans won 2-0 so now I'm just going to sit back & cheer & beer on Man City to complete the double. The odds were shite but it just adds to the fun. I would never go big time Charlie & bet £100's on anything. Even if I could afford it I wouldn't. 

Grimbo 

 

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21 hours ago, Grim O'Grady said:

I stick £50 in my McBookies account at the start of every season & just put a weekly fiver bet (usually) on a double win for my Scottish & English team, then at the end of the season, whatever is left I donate to the local economy (the Malt & Hops). 

Yesterday Spartans won 2-0 so now I'm just going to sit back & cheer & beer on Man City to complete the double. The odds were shite but it just adds to the fun. I would never go big time Charlie & bet £100's on anything. Even if I could afford it I wouldn't. 

Grimbo 

ETA - fucking Man City! 

 

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 10/16/2016 at 22:59, Mr pink said:

Unfortunately I've only just seen this. Hope blue is still around.

I apparently hadn't signed in here since January, but just happened to notice this. 

I've never said that winning at betting is easy, because it isn't. I've had my fair share of stupid bets and there are some sports where I cannot make a profit despite trying (the NFL springs to mind). There are two main things to remember above all else I think:

  • Betting always comes down to simple probability and your ability to estimate the chance of something occurring (ie a team or player winning)
  • Discipline is everything. It is far easier to lose than win, so if you have no discipline you have little chance of winning long-term 

There are no secrets. I do have a maths degree, but then I've never used anything more than you'd learn doing GCSE maths to bet on football (baseball would be different). If I could put my finger on one helpful attribute, it is being able to look at lots of different information and process it all in your head to make decisions. I have always been able to do this, even when I was 13 or 14. Given a bit of mathematical knowledge, and having followed football (and looked at football odds) for a long time, then being able to estimate the probabilities of teams winning comes fairly easily to me. Other sports are far harder for me to be successful at. 

I would say if you've been betting for a while and you feel like you're not getting close to cracking it, then you need to be honest with yourself about why. You can't just wake up and decide to be good at something. Past experience and knowledge are all important. 

Statistics are absolutely fundamental. If you're trying to bet without them, then you're basically guessing. You can of course use the statistics in a million different ways. 

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  • 7 months later...
On 17/10/2016 at 00:11, welshbairn said:

This. Why are you still trying?

Well I didn't say that I can't make money from betting on football.

I do believe that 90 minute markets are very hard to beat for most people including myself probably.

I concentrate all my efforts on betting on long term markets which I believe to be far easier to profit from.

Indeed the main reason I'm a member here is for some invaluable insight into what's going on in the lower leagues in Scotland. Especially pre season of course. :)

Edited by Mr pink
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