Fuctifano Posted April 8, 2018 Share Posted April 8, 2018 The teams still involved will probably want St Johnstone and Motherwell last due to higher possibility of them being on the beach mentally by that point. But I'd assume we'll have County at home on the last day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paddymcp Posted April 8, 2018 Share Posted April 8, 2018 Dont know why everybody thinks that its a forgone conclusion that the team that finishes 11th will stay up. When pish plays pish any of them can find a way to lose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thistle_do_nicely Posted April 8, 2018 Share Posted April 8, 2018 7 minutes ago, paddymcp said: Dont know why everybody thinks that its a forgone conclusion that the team that finishes 11th will stay up. When pish plays pish any of them can find a way to lose. not all that likely over two legs though - the Killie vs. Falkirk play-offs were a good example of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sherrif John Bunnell Posted April 8, 2018 Share Posted April 8, 2018 It would take a proper Hibsing it for the 11th placed team to lose to whatever pish the Championship throws up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killiefan27 Posted April 8, 2018 Share Posted April 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, Thistle_do_nicely said: not all that likely over two legs though - the Killie vs. Falkirk play-offs were a good example of that. This. We actually dominated the first leg but they snuck a 1-0 win, something that can happen over 90 minutes. For them to go up they'd have had to do it twice though, which was always unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted April 8, 2018 Share Posted April 8, 2018 Dont know why everybody thinks that its a forgone conclusion that the team that finishes 11th will stay up. When pish plays pish any of them can find a way to lose. If it was a one-off match then anything could happen. Just think that two legs (and the battle the Championship teams have to go through to reach the final) helps the Premiership team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy85 Posted April 8, 2018 Share Posted April 8, 2018 Whoever finishes 11th will hose whatever dross stumbles its way to the final from the Championship. I’d imagine they’d also be more than capable of dispatching the current St Mirren side as well tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowman Posted April 9, 2018 Share Posted April 9, 2018 4 hours ago, DeeTillEhDeh said: 8 hours ago, paddymcp said: Dont know why everybody thinks that its a forgone conclusion that the team that finishes 11th will stay up. When pish plays pish any of them can find a way to lose. If it was a one-off match then anything could happen. Just think that two legs (and the battle the Championship teams have to go through to reach the final) helps the Premiership team. Actually the Premiership team and the 2nd place Championship play the same amount of games, the 3rd and 4th Championship team should have to play extra games for the opportunity of promotion. The problem arises when the 11th placed Premiership team knows with a few weeks to spare that they are going to finish 11th, they can let players rest and plan over a couple of weeks, but that wouldn't be the case if the race to avoid 11th went to the final game of the season. The Championship team would actually have 1-2 more day rest before the play off final first leg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted April 9, 2018 Share Posted April 9, 2018 Actually the Premiership team and the 2nd place Championship play the same amount of games, the 3rd and 4th Championship team should have to play extra games for the opportunity of promotion. The problem arises when the 11th placed Premiership team knows with a few weeks to spare that they are going to finish 11th, they can let players rest and plan over a couple of weeks, but that wouldn't be the case if the race to avoid 11th went to the final game of the season. The Championship team would actually have 1-2 more day rest before the play off final first leg. It could all change quickly in the space off 2/3 games - we looked certs for 11th last season yet got the points needed by the 3rd post split match.My gut feeling is that the gap between County and Patrick will open up but the gap to Dundee/Accies won't close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
7-2 Posted April 9, 2018 Share Posted April 9, 2018 The number of games a team plays is basically just an excuse now. Have a couple of weeks off - we were rusty/they were able to rest. Keep playing - we were tired, we had too many games/they had the benefit of match sharpness. It's damned if you do, damned if you don't depending on result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamesM82 Posted April 12, 2018 Share Posted April 12, 2018 On 08/04/2018 at 15:05, Fuctifano said: Updated following weekend's results -538 Method Hamilton 5% Dundee 15% County 56% Thistle 74% Safe% Playoff% Relegated % Motherwell 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% St Johnstone 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% Hamilton 91.5% 6.8% 1.7% Dundee 73.2% 22.7% 4.1% Ross Co 22.3% 44.4% 33.3% Thistle 13.0% 26.1% 60.9% The actual 538 page seems to have been refreshed now that the post-split fixtures have been released. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spikethedee Posted April 12, 2018 Share Posted April 12, 2018 It appears that Partick are the first team this season to offer the "free buses to fans for away trips" that is usually followed by certain relegation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ropy Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 On 8 April 2018 at 14:49, ropy said: Possible scenario : 7. St Johnstone. 41 8. Partick. 40 9. Dundee. 39 10. Hamilton 39 11 Ross County 38 12 Motherwell. 38 needs Hamilton to beat the all conquering Killie. Hamilton did not do the business, Motherwell now can't finish bottom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fuctifano Posted April 22, 2018 Share Posted April 22, 2018 538 relegation probabilities: Dundee 8% Hamilton 23% County 49% Thistle 70% Mine based on same logic Dundee 8% Hamilton 30% County 51% Thistle 61% My stats broken down Safe% Playoff% Relegated % Hamilton 54.1% 31.6% 14.3% Dundee 86.6% 11.3% 2.1% Ross Co 36.0% 25.7% 38.3% Thistle 23.3% 31.4% 45.3% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poet of the Macabre Posted April 23, 2018 Share Posted April 23, 2018 I'd have Hamilton at a lot higher than 14%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
accies1874 Posted April 23, 2018 Share Posted April 23, 2018 8 minutes ago, Poet of the Macabre said: I'd have Hamilton at a lot higher than 14%. The stats don't lie, m9. Spoiler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamesM82 Posted April 23, 2018 Share Posted April 23, 2018 1 hour ago, Poet of the Macabre said: I'd have Hamilton at a lot higher than 14%. 538 seems to rate Hamilton quite highly. Of the teams in relegation trouble, County are given a score of 20.9 (out of 100), Accies 18.5, Dundee 14.3 and Thistle 10.8. It seems to be a goals-based model, so Thistle's relatively bad goal difference (and their recent humping by County) explains their low score. These ratings then inform 538's estimates of what will happen in each match, which in turn drives the % chance of relegation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fuctifano Posted April 23, 2018 Share Posted April 23, 2018 I base it off clubelo which is a bit more simplistic but it has the 4 clubs involved ranked (from highest rated to lowest) as County, Hamilton, Dundee, Thistle, which will explain why County aren't favourites to go down despite being bottom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fifespud Posted April 23, 2018 Share Posted April 23, 2018 I’m getting concerned it’s going to be the DABS v Hamilton playoff final. Just couldn’t pick a team who I’d prefer lost. Ach well if results go the right way this weekend the Accies will be bottom [emoji4][emoji4][emoji4] How many losses on the bounce is that now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YER SISTERS YER MAW Posted April 23, 2018 Share Posted April 23, 2018 I’m getting concerned it’s going to be the DABS v Hamilton playoff final. Just couldn’t pick a team who I’d prefer lost. Ach well if results go the right way this weekend the Accies will be bottom [emoji4][emoji4][emoji4] How many losses on the bounce is that now? Imagine being rattled that much by a wee diddy club like Accies that you couldn't back us over your clubs own derby rivals in a play-off. Minter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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