Afrojim Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 I've noticed over the last couple of years that people on P&B often make reference to demographics. I've seen posts like "such and such a club should have a bigger fan base because there are X amount of people living in the vicinity" and "Demographically speaking the pyramid needs a West of Scotland senior league". Of course, population size is a very good demographic indicator, but using just population size is too simplistic and leads to univariate analysis, completely ignoring a plethora of other variables that should be taken into consideration such as migratory trends, population density, the ageing population etc. So occasionally, when I have the spare time, I'll post some (hopefully) interesting information on here in regards to Scotland's changing demography and how that will likely impact on clubs, the national side and the game as a whole heading into the future.... Topic One: City Living In 2013 Eurostat published a report that indicated that 60% of Scotland's GDP was generated and concentrated in Scotland's seven cities - Glasgow, Edinburgh, Aberdeen, Dundee, Inverness, Perth and Stirling. This is despite the fact that only 30% of Scotland's population live in these cities. What that means, roughly speaking, is that 30% of Scotland's population is benefiting from 60% of the wealth and opportunities in Scotland, while the remaining 70% of us scrap for a share of the remaining 40% of wealth and opportunities. One of the best predictors of future individual wealth in Scotland is now simply whether or not you live in a city. All seven cities feature in Scotland's top ten regions in regards to GDP Per Capita with Edinburgh, Aberdeen and Glasgow a fair way ahead of everywhere else. GDP Per Capita (2013 Eurostat Figures) Edinburgh €50,400 Aberdeen €47,900 Glasgow €42,700 Shetland €29,900Perth €27,400 Stirling €27,400 Inverness €26,900 West Lothian €26,200Dundee €24,500 Orkney €23,600 This has led to significant population changes within Scotland over the last few decades as more and more people relocate to cities in order to improve their life prospects and reduce the possibility of living in poverty. In 2017, Edinburgh was named the second best city to live in the world according to the Quality of Life Rankings published by Deutsche Bank. In the past Scottish people used to aspire to live in other countries such as Australia, New Zealand and Canada, now they can attain the same (or better) standard of living simply by moving to Edinburgh. The logical solution to Scotland's underlying social problems (that are often linked to poverty) is to create the circumstances in which people choose to live in one of Scotland's cities. This is evident when you consider the numerous large scale infrastructure projects that have been completed recently or that are planned for the future e.g. The Queensferry Crossing, the Edinburgh Tramlink, the rebuilding of the St. James' Centre, the refurbishment of Waverley and Haymarket train stations all in Edinburgh. The Waterfront Development in Dundee, the invest in Perth initiative, the plans to extend Inverness to the south. In Glasgow there is the planned roof garden over the M8, the new "super hospital", the new state of the art City of Glasgow College buildings etc. There are very few plans to invest in any provincial Scottish towns or villages, making life in the city a far more attractive prospect for 100,000's of people - which would appear to be an intentional choice by the powers that be. By some estimates it is projected that in the next few decades the population share of Scotland's seven cities will be 50%. Estimates suggest that Edinburgh will have somewhere around 100,000 new residents within the next 10-15 years. If we analyse population changes in recent years it's easy to see how these huge changes are just the continuation of an already well established trend. Between 2011 and 2016 the combined population of Scotland's cities increased by 44,429 residents, as a comparison that is slightly more than the entire population of Coatbridge the 16th biggest place in Scotland. Between 2001 and 2016 the combined population of Scotland's cities increased by 107,971 residents, or the equivalent of Paisley and Motherwell's combined populations, the 5th and 24th biggest places in Scotland. Between 1991 and 2016 the combined population of Scotland's cities increased by 124,575 residents, which is about 2,000 people more than the current population of East Ayrshire. These combined increases occurred despite the populations of Dundee and Glasgow actually declining slightly over a 25 year period. The population of all seven cities are expected to dramatically increase (relatively speaking) in the next couple of decades. 2011-16 2001-16 1991-16 ------------------------------------------------------ Glasgow 12,195 28,471 -211 Edinburgh 22,184 50,186 80,602 Aberdeen 7,557 18,225 25,465 Dundee 582 -1,451 -1,541 Inverness 621 6,040 7,062 Perth 2 3,310 5,546 Stirling 1,288 3,910 7,662 --------------------------------------------------------- Total 44,429 107,971 124,575 What does this mean for Scottish football? We will likely see most city based clubs incrementally increase their on-field and off-field performances in upcoming years. We can expect to see them doing far better than they are now relative to their current position in Scottish football. Providing city based clubs are managed correctly they should be able to assert greater economic dominance over most of their provincial rivals. This is due to the relative wealth concentrated in Scotland's cities, meaning that more people have greater disposable income. If city clubs manage their commercial and marketing practices efficiently they could generate far greater revenue streams than their provincial counterparts. For example, Hearts and Hibs both broke their record season ticket sales this season, 25,000 people showed up at Murrayfield for Hearts v Aberdeen, Celtic currently have the 11th highest average league attendance in the world this season - just behind Inter Milan, Atletico Madrid and Arsenal - Rangers are 22nd on the list, with Hibs (144th), Hearts (160th) and Aberdeen (171st) making the top 200. It's worth pointing out that per head of population Scottish football matches are the best attended in Europe. The Scottish Premiership currently has 8 city based clubs, 66% of the total available places. Should Dundee United and Inverness CT sort out their problems it's possible that they will return to the top flight within the next few seasons. If they replace provincial clubs then the Premiership would have a 10-2 split in favour of city clubs. If provincial football is to thrive in the long-term it may be necessary to expand the Premiership to around 16 teams. 13 of the 42 SPFL clubs are city based, that's 31%. As the population of Scottish cities increase the percentage of city based SPFL clubs will also likely increase, with city clubs replacing provincial clubs. Cove Rangers, Spartans and BSC Glasgow look best placed to move up into the SPFL in coming seasons. There is also the prospect of Old Firm Colt teams pushing smaller clubs out of the league set-up. 23 of the 91 clubs that competed in this season's Scottish Cup were city based. That's 25% which is slightly less than the 30% population share. Tynecastle have already qualified for next season's competition guaranteeing Edinburgh 7 representatives. If LTHV win the EoSL and/or get licensed that would make it 8. Glasgow are currently guaranteed to have 6, with Aberdeen (3), Inverness (2), Dundee (2), Stirling (2) and Perth (1) also guaranteed representatives - 23 guaranteed in total, plus the possibility of LTHV and some city based junior teams qualifying through their respective competitions. Pollok, Yoker Athletic and Lochee United are still in the running for the Junior Cup. Dyce are currently pushing BoD in the North Super League. Expect to see an increase in city based clubs in The Scottish Cup in upcoming seasons. Tied into Scottish Cup qualification is club licensing and entry into the 'pyramid structure'. As someone pointed out on one of the Junior threads earlier, within the SPFL average attendances are linked to which tier clubs are currently playing in. Generally speaking the higher the league a club is playing in the higher the average attendance. When you combine this fact with the rapid population increases projected for Scottish cities it would be reasonable to assume that the bigger city based junior clubs would likely thrive in the senior set-up and it would likely be particularly lucrative for them to do so. Some of these junior clubs are already getting higher attendances than some of the smaller SPFL clubs. By removing the glass ceiling, becoming licensed and pushing up through the leagues, whilst tapping into the potential new fans living in the area, clubs like Pollok, Petershill, Maryhill, Edinburgh United, Banks O' Dee, Broughty Athletic, Lochee United and Jeanfield Swifts could entirely reinvigorate their clubs. Even just the possibility of pushing up through the leagues may get some old fans and new fans on board and excited for the future. There will also be increased demand placed on youth and amateur football clubs in these cities as players look for clubs. This will probably result in many youth and amateur clubs changing the way in which they are run - introducing new business models, upgrading facilities, developing new commercial practices, trying to develop a new fan base and such. So it's likely that we will see some youth and amateur clubs making the step up to senior level also, bypassing many Junior clubs on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ross. Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 I suggest we merge the towns of the Angus area to create a "Super Angus" which will enrich the lives of everyone there, as well as improve our chances at football. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 I don't have time to read all of this right now but: Quote In 2013 Eurostat published a report that indicated that 60% of Scotland's GDP was generated and concentrated in Scotland's seven cities - Glasgow, Edinburgh, Aberdeen, Dundee, Inverness, Perth and Stirling. This is despite the fact that only 30% of Scotland's population live in these cities. What that means, roughly speaking, is that 30% of Scotland's population is benefiting from 60% of the wealth and opportunities in Scotland, while the remaining 70% of us scrap for a share of the remaining 40% of wealth and opportunities. Lots of people commute into those cities from smaller places - when I worked in Edinburgh the majority of people commuted to work from Fife, West Lothian or elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmontheloknow Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 8 minutes ago, ICTChris said: I don't have time to read all of this right now but: Lots of people commute into those cities from smaller places - when I worked in Edinburgh the majority of people commuted to work from Fife, West Lothian or elsewhere. Figure 1 - Travel to Work Areas (Scottish Household Data 1999-2001) http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2002/08/15224/9743 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Afrojim Posted February 8, 2018 Author Share Posted February 8, 2018 13 hours ago, ICTChris said: I don't have time to read all of this right now but: Lots of people commute into those cities from smaller places - when I worked in Edinburgh the majority of people commuted to work from Fife, West Lothian or elsewhere. GDP Per Capita is the value of an economy divided by the number of residents living within that economy. Of course, there's transactional flows of money between places, you earning a wage in Edinburgh whilst living in Fife would be one such an example. 13 hours ago, cmontheloknow said: Figure 1 - Travel to Work Areas (Scottish Household Data 1999-2001) http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2002/08/15224/9743 'Spheres of Influence' was one of the topics that I was going to write about at a later date. The problem with spheres of influence is that it is similar to the idea of trickle down economics. The idea being that if you invest in the centre of the sphere of influence, say Glasgow for example, then the benefits of that investment will eventually make there way out to the people who live in the outlying areas on the fringe, which is correct to some extent for people who commute. But the issue is that people tend to gradually migrate towards the centre of that sphere of influence. Not everyone will move to the city itself but they will move closer to the city. Within Edinburgh's sphere of influence the population is growing rapidly in Edinburgh and also in places like Dalkeith, Newtongrange, Musselburgh, Bonnyrigg etc. These places are much closer to the centre of the sphere than others and that's the big problem when looking at the idea of 'city regions'. In the east it's not such a big problem though as there's Stirling, Edinburgh, Perth, Dundee and Aberdeen so most towns and villages are quite close to the centre of at least one of those city regions. In the west however there is only Glasgow (and Stirling to some extent) and as people gradually migrate towards the centre of the Glasgow city region the places in the hinterland or on the fringes gradually empty out. Every council area in the west of Scotland has lost population share since 1981 except for East Renfrewshire. Inverclyde, on the fringe of the city region, has lost nearly a quarter of it's population since 1981. The traditional population pattern used to be... Adult couples having more than two children... then their children having more than two children and so on...guaranteeing population growth in most places in Scotland. That's not what is happening now, what is happening is that many young people are gradually moving away from the towns and villages on the fringes towards the centre of city regions - then eventually having their children there, if they have children at all. Leaving behind them a rapidly ageing population in their home towns that is gradually dying out quicker than they're being replaced. It's a huge problem in the west of Scotland particularly in places within Inverclyde, Ayrshire and D & G. Of the 50+ places that host West Region junior teams only 5 of them are achieving annual population growth higher than the national average - Glasgow, Cambuslang, Renfrew, Kirkintilloch and Bishopbriggs - all of them in the centre of the city region. Most of the other towns and villages that host west junior clubs are experiencing population decline, some places, like New Cumnock, are experiencing a decline of over 1% a year. Nearly 33% of New Cumnock's population is over the age of 60 (888 residents out of 2,700). At some point there may not be the 'critical mass' to support a club in many of these places. Which is why the growth in influence of city based clubs is inevitable in the long-term. The process of urbanisation is a long-term one in Scotland, it's been gradually going on since the industrial revolution. But the upcoming phase of rapid urbanisation, where the majority of the population will become concentrated in the centre of city regions hasn't occurred in this way in Scotland before. It is however well under way in many other developed nations such as Germany where the process is maybe a couple of decades further down the road than it is in Scotland. The centre of these city regions in Germany have decimated the populations (and economies) of towns and villages on the outskirts of those city regions. Here's a couple of short videos highlighting what is happening in Germany, we can likely expect the same situation in Scotland. The second video isn't actually 45 minutes long despite it's title... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barry Ferguson's Hat Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 #Perthshire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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