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19 hours ago, Glenconner said:

ffs LLL, just write No Surrender.

Yet again this guy can only deal with me as a stereotype. Worth noting that what I wrote implicitly concedes that UI could happen in timelines of about 25 years and beyond, so not sure how that translates to  No Surrender,  but whatever. 

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On 10/01/2018 at 19:49, LongTimeLurker said:

Dream on. You must be at the wind up with this as you seem too intelligent to really believe that. No way it happens in a timeline of under 20 years and even after that it's no sure thing. There have been numbers as low as 3% support in NI for UI happening straight away in surveys on the subject this decade and a soft Brexit as Theresa May now appears to have pledged will happen could easily create an environment again where it stays a long term aspiration for a lot of people that they never quite get around to actually doing with NI stumbling on out of force of habit Belgium style. Beyond that the Tim Pat Coogan types always neglect to mention how migration in and out of NI cancels out much of the demographic effect of differences in birth rates, so Ulster isn't quite as doomed as some bloggers would like you to believe.

The 4% for unification now polls were a long time ago now.

Latest polls show a majority of people expressing support for a border poll in 5 years and roughly level support for Yes, No, DK. Those same polls show 56% support for Yes amongst 18-44 year olds.

With that level of caveat you have to take the raw numbers with a pinch of salt but there is no doubting the post Brexit direction of travel.

 

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Anecdotally, the general feeling here in Dublin is the that the North is a basket case that no one here wants to deal with. Although I believe reunification is the morally just outcome, I'd probably vote no in a referendum.

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2 hours ago, invergowrie arab said:

The 4% for unification now polls were a long time ago now....

...but are what things could slowly get back to again now that Theresa May has pledged that there will be no hard border. A lot still to unfold obviously, but what May agreed to recently over the RoI-NI border would lead to a scenario similar to the soft and almost transparent border between Norway and Sweden, which happens despite Sweden being an EU member and Norway being on the outside. A hard no deal Brexit would be a catastrophe in economic terms for both the UK and RoI, so Dublin definitely won't be pushing for the hard Brexit outcome that was most likely to fuel SF electorally and result in UI fairly quickly on a historical type timescale, and despite what gets said about the DUP they are rational actors in all of this as well and likely to steer the Tories towards a softer Brexit with the leverage they have at the moment. The bigger problem for Ulster Unionism in a soft Brexit scenario is what Scotland does down the road, because it makes independence more likely and my guess would be more likely than not to have happened after a generation or so.

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3 hours ago, DublinMagyar said:

Anecdotally, the general feeling here in Dublin is the that the North is a basket case that no one here wants to deal with. Although I believe reunification is the morally just outcome, I'd probably vote no in a referendum.

Everyone, or nearly everyone apart from a few hardcore United Irelanders, who will lose out financially in a United Ireland will vote no, imo.

Somebody in the republic has got to cost out a united Ireland, I'd say you're talking eye watering amounts of money, no doubt the EU would pitch in some money, but it will cost the RoI a fortune. Plus they'll have approx. 1,000,000 unionists with varying levels of antagonism and antipathy towards the new state.

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It was the only decent thing to do.

In all honesty Michelle O'Neill has come out of this as bad as anyone, she basically put him on paid leave for 3 months as a "punishment" , .There goes the respect for all rhetoric the Shinners spurt out every 5 minutes.

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1 hour ago, sureiknow said:

So wee Barry has resigned as M. P.

Bugger. Going to have to find something else Sinn Fein have done/not done to complain about now...

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It was the only decent thing to do. In all honesty Michelle O'Neill has come out of this as bad as anyone, she basically put him on paid leave for 3 months as a "punishment" , .There goes the respect for all rhetoric the Shinners spurt out every 5 minutes.

 

 

Transparently a cynical ploy to let things settle down. A three month ‘holiday’ when he should have been dismissed immediately irrespective of which political party he represents.

O’Neill had the opportunity here to show her true commitment to integrity, equality and respect, (her own mantra btw). As usual, just empty words.

 

 

 

 

ETA, also just seen that he’s resigned. The right decision, whether an individual choice or encouraged by his colleagues.

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On 13/01/2018 at 14:55, Jacksgranda said:

Everyone, or nearly everyone apart from a few hardcore United Irelanders, who will lose out financially in a United Ireland will vote no, imo.

Somebody in the republic has got to cost out a united Ireland, I'd say you're talking eye watering amounts of money, no doubt the EU would pitch in some money, but it will cost the RoI a fortune. Plus they'll have approx. 1,000,000 unionists with varying levels of antagonism and antipathy towards the new state.

Recent polls should a majority for a United Ireland in the south even with OT costing the Republic X (I can't remember) amount.

The feeling I get is that the cost will be worth not having a fucking lunatic state (I'm not even having a go at the Red Hand Gang here I mean the UK) to deal with.

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8 hours ago, Jacksgranda said:

Bugger. Going to have to find something else Sinn Fein have done/not done to complain about now...

Doubt he'll find another £75,000 a year job anytime soon. You could complain about his hygiene when he ends up working in that petrol station shop.

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Barry McElduff a total roaster and very badly handled indeed by Sinn Fein.

Resignation took far too long, and a leadership with anything about them would have forced the issue much sooner. Indefensible, really.

 

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