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Slovenia Vs Scotland - Official Match Thread

Gordopolis

By Gordopolis
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vikingTON

vikingTON

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, lubo_blaha said:

The bottom line is that we fail to beat the minnows, particularly the 2nd bottom seeds. If we'd managed to do this over the past 20 years we'd have been to two tournaments and would have been a play-off win away from five more. 

The flaw in your argument is obvious though. Scotland are practically minnows of the international game themselves, on account of their squad and manager being demonstrably gubbins (mediocrity, after all, having been more than enough for the likes of Albania, Czech Republic, Hungary and Ireland to reach a 24 team Euros just last year). The gulf in quality between Scotland and minnows is therefore much less. You should expect third seeds like Scotland to drop some and more points against 'minnows' in any group than higher seeded, better-quality teams.  Scotland being held to a draw by Lithuania, with Slovakia beating them twice en route to second place, is accounted for by that straightforward explanation: Slovakia are a better side and so were able to cigar matches against opposition that Scotland could not.  

So the reason why Scotland didn't qualify for any of the above tournaments is that they are a rancid international team. The quality of that team is demonstrated over an entire campaign, and whataboutery regarding individual results against teams that you 'should' be beating explains nothing at all. 

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lubo_blaha

lubo_blaha

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The flaw in your argument is obvious though. Scotland are practically minnows of the international game themselves, on account of their squad and manager being demonstrably gubbins (mediocrity, after all, having been more than enough for the likes of Albania, Czech Republic, Hungary and Ireland to reach a 24 team Euros just last year). The gulf in quality between Scotland and minnows is therefore much less. You should expect third seeds like Scotland to drop some and more points against 'minnows' in any group than higher seeded, better-quality teams.  Scotland being held to a draw by Lithuania, with Slovakia beating them twice en route to second place, is accounted for by that straightforward explanation: Slovakia are a better side and so were able to cigar matches against opposition that Scotland could not.  
So the reason why Scotland didn't qualify for any of the above tournaments is that they are a rancid international team. The quality of that team is demonstrated over an entire campaign, and whataboutery regarding individual results against teams that you 'should' be beating explains nothing at all. 


The problem is that we've regularly bettered or equalled teams at our level or one seeding above (Slovakia, Slovenia, Poland, Ireland, Croatia, France, Ukraine, Norway over the last 10 or so years). These teams have not tripped up against the lower ranked sides as often as us.

In the last 10/15 years we've had squads made up of players playing at a much higher level than the likes of Lithuania, Georgia, Macedonia, Moldova, Belarus and Faroe had. It's not unreasonable to think we should have been able to pick up maximum points at least more often than we have done.
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vikingTON

vikingTON

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1 hour ago, lubo_blaha said:

 


The problem is that we've regularly bettered or equalled teams at our level or one seeding above (Slovakia, Slovenia, Poland, Ireland, Croatia, France, Ukraine, Norway over the last 10 or so years).

 

Erm no, you didn't actually better or equal them: Slovakia won your head to head 3-1 on aggregate (a scoreline that gives them a fighting chance of going through to the playoffs)., despite playing at Hampden with ten men for fully seventy minutes.

Slovenia were fourth seeds in your group: Scotland were third. So after all these supposed exploits, the group actually finished as follows:

Seed 1 - England

Seed 2 - Slovakia 

Seed 3 - Scotland

Seed 4 - Slovenia

Seed 5 - Lithuania

Seed 6 - Malta

With a relatively weak Seed 2 finishing above Seeds 3 and 4 in a tight contest, with the lower seeds dropping more points to the 'minnows'. That is an entirely predictable outcome. 

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These teams have not tripped up against the lower ranked sides as often as us.

Because they're objectively better teams, and better teams can cigar matches against the lowest seeds when Scotland can not. That is how literally every league or at least two round group system works in football and other team sports. Better teams are both i) more likely to win their head to head fixtures against their rivals and ii) less likely to drop points/lose to minnows. 

Just because Scotland 'held their own' (or in the case of Slovakia, really didn't) in the head to head matches doesn't make them an equally good team. The advantage that a better team has against the minnows still holds, and proved decisive in this campaign and all the other examples that you have provided.  
 

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In the last 10/15 years we've had squads made up of players playing at a much higher level than the likes of Lithuania, Georgia, Macedonia, Moldova, Belarus and Faroe had. It's not unreasonable to think we should have been able to pick up maximum points at least more often than we have done.

By the same token, France, Poland, Slovakia, Ukraine etc. had players playing at a much higher level than the English Championship jobbers normally traipising out for Scotland.  Over a couple of head to head matches, those countries didn't take maximum points though.

Your argument rests on Scotland uniquely having it both ways, and getting to shitfest points against better teams while stomping all over 'minnows' only slightly lower than themselves in the pecking order. That's not how football works.  When Scotland has a team that isn't utterly third-rate in the European international game, then dropping points against 'minnows' will become increasingly rare, but not before that and certainly not with the dross that you've got now. 

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lubo_blaha

lubo_blaha

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By the same token, France, Poland, Slovakia, Ukraine etc. had players playing at a much higher level than the English Championship jobbers normally traipising out for Scotland.  Over a couple of head to head matches, those countries didn't take maximum points though.
Your argument rests on Scotland uniquely having it both ways, and getting to shitfest points against better teams while stomping all over 'minnows' only slightly lower than themselves in the pecking order. That's not how football works.  When Scotland has a team that isn't utterly third-rate in the European international game, then dropping points against 'minnows' will become increasingly rare, but not before that and certainly not with the dross that you've got now. 


If we can regularly take 3/4/6 points against teams at a similar or higher seeding to ourselves, we should be regularly beating teams ranked 100+ in the world home and away, especially when we've missed out on automatic qualification/play-off places by just a few points nearly every time.

Every team in Europe that has ever qualified for a major tournament has done it more recently than us. Should we just settle for being a handful of points away from qualification for the rest of time?
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vikingTON

vikingTON

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13 minutes ago, lubo_blaha said:

 


If we can regularly take 3/4/6 points against teams at a similar or higher seeding to ourselves, we should be regularly beating teams ranked 100+ in the world home and away, especially when we've missed out on automatic qualification/play-off places by just a few points nearly every time.

 

Because Scotland are entitled to take points from better and higher ranked sides, but no team is entitled to do the exact same thing to Scotland's bunch of abject rent-a-jobbers. Seems legit. 

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Every team in Europe that has ever qualified for a major tournament has done it more recently than us. Should we just settle for being a handful of points away from qualification for the rest of time?

I couldn't give a toss about what you want or choose to settle for.  It's the logical fallacy behind Scotland as a special case study in 'being not very good and dropping points to minnows' that is being pointed out to you. That is what happens to every third-rate team in international and domestic football.  You'd be as well doing the rounds of every club that fails to win promotion  in a league and setting out why if they hadn't drawn away to some clearly inferior team in January, that they would in fact have reached their goal. Truly innovative analysis there. 

 

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DanMc99

DanMc99

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2 hours ago, virginton said:

The flaw in your argument is obvious though. Scotland are practically minnows of the international game themselves, on account of their squad and manager being demonstrably gubbins (mediocrity, after all, having been more than enough for the likes of Albania, Czech Republic, Hungary and Ireland to reach a 24 team Euros just last year). The gulf in quality between Scotland and minnows is therefore much less. You should expect third seeds like Scotland to drop some and more points against 'minnows' in any group than higher seeded, better-quality teams.  Scotland being held to a draw by Lithuania, with Slovakia beating them twice en route to second place, is accounted for by that straightforward explanation: Slovakia are a better side and so were able to cigar matches against opposition that Scotland could not.  

So the reason why Scotland didn't qualify for any of the above tournaments is that they are a rancid international team. The quality of that team is demonstrated over an entire campaign, and whataboutery regarding individual results against teams that you 'should' be beating explains nothing at all. 

can't argue much with what you are saying but get davie irons out my fuckin face 

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DA Baracus

DA Baracus

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The more I consider the more ludicrous that starting line up was. History will not be kind when it looks back on who took to the field last night and where they played, especially considering it was an all or nothing game, that the team had played just 3 days before and how the team was set up for every single previous game in the group.

We were overrun in midfield, meaning we struggled to hold on to the ball and start moving the ball forward in a meaningful manner, often resulting in us losing the ball or resorting to long punts, making the extra man upfront redundant. It also meant that we had to drop deeper when they had the ball, as they had an extra man in midfield and we had to work harder to cover that. This in turn meant we couldn't break as quick. The personnel didn't make the type of runs forward to break in to the box and support the strikers as others have done/would do/could do.

Amazingly we got away with it in the first half, but the warning signs were there. Half time should have seen that addressed, but it seems that since he started with plan B he was lost as where to go. Seemingly his 'playbook' didn't run to plan C or beyond. This saw us persevere with the same formation and what unfolded was just sadly predictable to all but Strachan.

He still could have changed it but his subs were not just ineffective, they were pointless.

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Thomas Wrongun

Thomas Wrongun

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7 hours ago, edinabear said:

Maybe we should play the captain of an on form Leeds at centre half rather than Mulgrew, who is not a centre half and Berra who is now past it.  That just a start. 

and maybe a Shinnie who has proved himself in various positions at the second club in Scotland?

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The_Judge

The_Judge

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19 hours ago, DA Baracus said:

we struggled to hold on to the ball and start moving the ball forward in a meaningful manner, often resulting in us losing the ball or resorting to long punts.

Kind of describes about 80% of every game I've watched Scotland (or a Scottish team in European competition) play.

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