The Wee "Will-we-qualify-probably-not" Thread: Nations League Edition

[forameus]

Almost time for another thrilling round of competitive International football, and once again it's one that's absolutely crucial for us.  Our task is simple - we need to win both our games - but should we do it, our fate and set of potential opponents aren't as certain.  I'll use this thread to update after each round of fixtures exactly where we stand.

Then we can maybe use it as a tearful memorial of what could have been if we get scudded on Thursday night.

I posted a wall-of-text on what our hopes were in another thread, that post is in the spoiler tags below

EDIT: I fucked up the spoiler tags, and now I can't seem to reassign them.  Pish.

 

I know I just said it was hard to predict, but f**k it, I like this kind of thing.  Because like Meadow_Jock says, I'm a helpful nerd.  All of this is assuming we reach that magic 14 point mark with two wins.  12 would likely see us finish bottom, if we manage 2nd at all.

Group A - France, Sweden, Netherlands, Bulgaria.  Pretty unlikely that the latter two will make 2nd, looking like either France or Sweden.  France's draw with Luxembourg puts them in a dangerous spot, but I'd expect they'd have enough in the tank with matches against Bulgaria and Belarus to come.  Sweden have Luxembourg and then the Netherlands, so expecting at least 3 from that, but then the bottom spot in the group isn't decided yet.  Luxembourg and Belarus are level on 5 points - if the latter finishes bottom, Sweden can pick up 6 points from these two games, if it's the former, only 3.  We'd ideally need a heavy win for Sweden in Luxembourg, them to finish bottom, and then a draw between Sweden and Netherlands.  They'd be on 11 points then, and we'd finish above them.  If Belarus finish bottom, Sweden would move up to 14, and it would come down to goal difference.  We don't want that.

Group B - Switzerland and Portugal.  Group is irrelevant.  We can't catch either side no matter what happens.

Group C - Northern Ireland.  Germany are pretty much home and hosed, so it's just one team we can potentially catch.  Looking unlikely though - they've got Germany in their next game, but then an absolutely dreadful Norway side in the final match.  1 point from two games would likely be enough to see them ahead of us and 3 would definitely be enough.  If Norway manage to win somehow, as do Germany, we would finish ahead of them

Group D - Wales, Republic of Ireland, maybe Serbia.  One of the big ones to watch.  Ireland look like they've chucked it with their defeat against Serbia, letting Wales back in.  Good result for us though, as it bunches up the table quite nicely.  Serbia have Austria and Georgia left to play and 3 points there will see them top no matter what.  Think we can forget about them.  Wales have to go to Tbilisi (lol) and then have a huge match in Cardiff against Ireland, with them playing Moldova before.  I expect both sides will get 3 points in their other matches.  Then it comes down to that last game.  A win for Ireland and we'd finish ahead of them.  A draw and we'd finish ahead of Wales.  A Wales win would take it down to goal difference, which we wouldn't come out on top of I don't think.

Group E - Poland, Montenegro, Denmark.  Likely to be one of the latter 2 that gets 2nd, and 2 wins for either would see them above us.  4 points for either (they play each other) would take it down to goal difference

Group G - Italy.  Lol.  We're not catching them.  The only situation we could would be if they lose at home to Macedonia and then away in Albania.  One win from two games would see them above us, as could a point.

Group H - Bosnia, Greece, Cyprus.  Cyprus aren't totally out of it, and play Greece next.  A win for them would really help us, particularly while Bosnia play Belgium at the same time.  A win wouldn't be the worst thing in the world for us either though - if Greece win and Bosnia lose, Greece will likely qualify due to playing Gibraltar on final day.  However, those 3 points will drop off, and the most points they can manage is 13.  We'd finish ahead of them.

Group I - Croatia, Iceland, Turkey, Ukraine. Big fucking shrug here.  4 sides separated by 2 points, so really is anyone's game.  Ukraine and Iceland both have Kosovo to play, so should expect 3 points from that.  Iceland also play Turkey and Croatia play Ukraine.  Honestly, could be anyone finishing top and 2nd there.  Kosovo have been roundly pumped though, so whoever finishes 2nd, they'll drop 6 points from their total.  Worst case, Iceland and Croatia win both of their games, finish on 22 points, and out of our reach.  Best case, they all cut each others throats.

So what have we learned?  Short of something crazy happening, 4 points for us is likely to see us finish in either 3rd or 4th.  We have to beat Slovakia, but then a draw against Slovenia would mean we'd have to get a better scoreline against Slovakia than they manage against Malta.  They beat them 1-0, we have to beat them 2-0.  Etc etc.  I can't see that happening.  But if we do win both of our games, I'd be very confident of finishing amongst the 8.

 

Not that it means anything at all, but below is the second placed table at this stage.  Can all change from one game to the next, so will keep updating after each round of fixtures.

Pos	Grp	Team v t e	Pld	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Qualification
1	B	Portugal (X)	6	5	0	1	21	3	+18	15	Advance to second round (play-offs)
2	C	Northern Ireland (Y)	6	4	1	1	9	2	+7	13
3	G	Italy	6	4	1	1	10	7	+3	13
4	I	Iceland	7	4	1	2	9	6	+3	13
5	F	Slovakia	7	4	0	3	11	5	+6	12
6	A	Sweden	6	3	1	2	10	7	+3	10
7	E	Montenegro	6	3	1	2	10	7	+3	10
8	H	Bosnia and Herzegovina (Z)	6	2	2	2	10	8	+2	8
9	D	Wales	6	1	5	0	6	5	+1	8

 

We play on Thursday night, so we're amongst the first to get kicked off during the window.  Matches then continue on through Friday and Saturday, before the final round of fixtures on Sunday through Tuesday.  Fixtures are below, with the red ones really of interest to us. either directly or indirectly.

Thursday 5th October

Group F

Scotland vs Slovakia
England vs Slovenia
Malta vs Lithuania

Group C

Azerbaijan vs Czech Republic
San Marino vs Norway
Northern Ireland vs Germany

Group E

Armenia vs Poland
Montenegro vs Denmark
Romania vs Kazakhstan

Friday 6th October

Group D

Georgia vs Wales
R. of Ireland vs Moldova
Austria vs Serbia

Group I

Turkey vs Iceland
Croatia vs Finland
Kosovo vs Ukraine

Group G

Liechtenstein vs Israel
Italy vs Macedonia
Spain vs Albania

Saturday 7th October

Group H

Bosnia vs Belgium
Gibraltar vs Estonia
Cyprus vs Greece

Group A

Sweden vs Luxembourg
Belarus vs Netherlands
Bulgaria vs France

Group B

Faroe Islands vs Latvia
Switzerland vs Hungary
Andorra vs Portugal

I'll put up the next round of fixtures after all of Saturday's results are done, unless we're already out, in that case I'll put up a big silly frowny face.

[invergowrie arab]

Will need a massive game to beat Slovakia. 

What i found interesting in Euro 2016, and I dont know if it was by design or expediency but Slovakia have a huge amount of caps in the squad. Looking at current squads from wiki they still seem t be well ahead and that international experience must count for a lot.

Is it because we change, start capping englishmen in their 30s, dont play enough games?

23	GK	Martin Dúbravka	15 January 1989 (aged 28)	6	0	Sparta Prague
1	GK	Ján Novota	29 November 1983 (aged 33)	4	0	Debreceni VSC
12	GK	Martin Polaček	2 April 1990 (aged 27)	0	0	Zagłębie Lubin
3	DF	Martin Škrtel (captain)	15 December 1984 (aged 32)	91	6	Fenerbahçe
4	DF	Ján Ďurica	10 December 1981 (aged 35)	89	4	Trabzonspor
2	DF	Peter Pekarík	30 October 1986 (aged 30)	77	2	Hertha BSC
15	DF	Tomáš Hubočan	17 September 1985 (aged 31)	54	0	Marseille
5	DF	Norbert Gyömbér	3 July 1992 (aged 25)	18	0	Bari 1908
18	DF	Erik Sabo	22 November 1991 (aged 25)	12	0	Beitar Jerusalem
14	DF	Milan Škriniar	11 February 1995 (aged 22)	11	0	Inter Milan
	DF	Lukáš Štetina	28 July 1991 (aged 26)	1	0	Sparta Prague
16	DF	Róbert Mazáň	9 February 1994 (aged 23)	0	0	Žilina
17	MF	Marek Hamšík (vice-captain)	27 July 1987 (aged 30)	99	21	Napoli
7	MF	Vladimír Weiss	30 November 1989 (aged 27)	62	7	Al-Gharafa
19	MF	Juraj Kucka	26 February 1987 (aged 30)	56	6	Trabzonspor
20	MF	Róbert mhak	8 March 1991 (aged 26)	38	9	PAOK
13	MF	Patrik Hrošovský	22 April 1992 (aged 25)	17	0	Viktoria Plzeň
8	MF	Ondrej Duda	5 December 1994 (aged 22)	16	2	Hertha BSC
6	MF	Ján Greguš	29 January 1991 (aged 26)	14	1	Copenhagen
10	MF	Albert Rusnák	7 July 1994 (aged 23)	5	0	Real Salt Lake
22	MF	Stanislav Lobotka	25 November 1994 (aged 22)	3	1	Celta Vigo
9	MF	Jaroslav Mihalík	27 July 1994 (aged 23)	0	0	Cracovia
21	FW	Michal Ďuriš	1 June 1988 (aged 29)	36	4	Orenburg
11	FW	Adam Nemec	2 September 1985 (aged 32)	30	9	Dinamo București

GK	Jordan Archer	12 April 1993 (age 24)	0	0	Millwall
	GK	Craig Gordon	31 December 1982 (age 34)	49	0	Celtic
	GK	Allan McGregor	31 January 1982 (age 35)	36	0	Hull City
	DF	Ikechi Anya	3 January 1988 (age 29)	27	3	Derby County
	DF	Christophe Berra	31 January 1985 (age 32)	38	4	Heart of Midlothian
	DF	Liam Cooper	30 August 1991 (age 26)	0	0	Leeds United
	DF	Grant Hanley	20 November 1991 (age 25)	28	1	Norwich City
	DF	Charlie Mulgrew	6 March 1986 (age 31)	29	2	Blackburn Rovers
	DF	Andrew Robertson	11 March 1994 (age 23)	17	2	Liverpool
	DF	Kieran Tierney	5 June 1997 (age 20)	6	0	Celtic
	DF	Steven Whittaker	16 June 1984 (age 33)	31	0	Hibernian
	MF	Stuart Armstrong	30 March 1992 (age 25)	4	1	Celtic
	MF	Barry Bannan	1 December 1989 (age 27)	25	0	Sheffield Wednesday
	MF	Scott Brown	25 June 1985 (age 32)	55	4	Celtic
	MF	Darren Fletcher	1 February 1984 (age 33)	78	5	Stoke City
	MF	James Forrest	7 July 1991 (age 26)	19	0	Celtic
	MF	Ryan Fraser	24 February 1994 (age 23)	1	0	Bournemouth
	MF	James McArthur	7 October 1987 (age 29)	30	4	Crystal Palace
	MF	John McGinn	18 October 1994 (age 22)	4	0	Hibernian
	MF	James Morrison	25 May 1986 (age 31)	45	3	West Bromwich Albion
	MF	Matt Phillips	13 March 1991 (age 26)	6	0	West Bromwich Albion
	MF	Matt Ritchie	10 September 1989 (age 28)	15	3	Newcastle United
	MF	Robert Snodgrass	7 September 1987 (age 30)	24	6	Aston Villa
	FW	Steven Fletcher	26 March 1987 (age 30)	30	9	Sheffield Wednesday
	FW	Leigh Griffiths	20 August 1990 (age 27)	15	3	Celtic
	FW	Chris Martin	4 November 1988 (age 28)	15	3

[sergie's no1 fan]

Gut instinct is we'll do the usual. I think we'll probably draw twice, maybe even lead against Slovakia and they'll get a late equaliser. England struggled against this mob at Wembley. 

Then away to Slovenia we'll have the tiniest of chances still to go through, lose an early goal and it will kill off all hope.

The Lithuania result done us, we all knew at the time. Beating England at home would have made up for it so that result was a double kick in the nuts.

Would love to be proved wrong but the most I can see us getting is 4 points maximum. 

[forameus]

I can't see us losing either game, but I think we may end up drawing on Thursday, which will render Sunday completely pointless.  Should we win on Thursday - which absolutely isn't beyond us - then Sunday will be an odd game.  When was the last time we had a good chance going into the final game away from home?

[Lurkst]

1 hour ago, forameus said:

 When was the last time we had a good chance going into the final game away from home?

Euro2012, but we needed to win in Spain.  With the joker option that the Czechs needed to get a result in Lithuania.  We didn't and they did though.

 

[forameus]

Just now, Lurkst said:

Euro2012, but we needed to win in Spain.  With the joker option that the Czechs needed to get a result in Lithuania.  We didn't and they did though.

 

Was thinking it was that one, but I didn't class beating Spain as a realistic option

[HibeeJibee]

To answer InvergowrieArab's point - in 10yrs since 2007 we've played 87 internationals. Slovakia have played 113 internationals. That will in part account for the difference in caps totals.

Their total is 26 higher. It does include 8 matches in finals tournaments (WC 2010 and Euro 2016) but the remaining 18 will be from playing approximately 2 more friendlies per season.

[Lurkst]

6 minutes ago, forameus said:

Was thinking it was that one, but I didn't class beating Spain as a realistic option

True that.  It's actually been a long time in that case.  Obviously there were the play off 2nd legs v Holland in 2003 & England in 99.  But in terms of a final group game crunch away tie, I think you've got to back to Wales in 85 the night Jock Stein died.

 

[Adamski]

There will be a point between the beginning of the Slovakia game and the end of the Slovenia game where if results stay as they are, we'll finish second. We won't finish second.

Only alternative is the missed crucial penalty/legit goal chalked off for us/opposition scoring a goal that shouldn't have stood route to see us out.

What was it that Renton said about being Scottish?

[invergowrie arab]

47 minutes ago, HibeeJibee said:

To answer InvergowrieArab's point - in 10yrs since 2007 we've played 87 internationals. Slovakia have played 113 internationals. That will in part account for the difference in caps totals.

Their total is 26 higher. It does include 8 matches in finals tournaments (WC 2010 and Euro 2016) but the remaining 18 will be from playing approximately 2 more friendlies per season.

As well as that I noticed their top players had more caps.

Again maybe no more to it than you pick your best players continually from a young age but I thought it was interesting and noticed it in a few other squads too.

[Christophe]

My first instinct is that most countries recognise a potential talent and get him into the full squad and playing minutes as teenagers...Scotland managers over the years have seemed to agonise about exposing 25-year old 'laddies' to too much first team football.

[John Lambies Doos]

So after last month's farce, is this the official thread for the matches?

[Highlandmagyar 2nd String]

We won't do it. We are pish, with a fud as a manager.

[Gordopolis]

18 hours ago, Christophe said:

My first instinct is that most countries recognise a potential talent and get him into the full squad and playing minutes as teenagers...Scotland managers over the years have seemed to agonise about exposing 25-year old 'laddies' to too much first team football.

I'd agree with that (along with @HibeeJibee's point about shiting out of taking friendlies). We've always been too choppy-changey with squads and as a result I'd bet we have far less 50 cap plus players than most other countries (HJ to confirm?)

More caps doesn't make you a better international, but it does give you a better chance of becoming a veteran at that level before you're in your 30s. That said, maybe only Burke and Tierney from the current crop would - IMO - fit into that 'pick them regardless of form' level of quality.

[HibeeJibee]

Below is a rank of UEFA nations by number of players with 50+ caps who've featured in squads during last year. Given we're not having a squad rebuild I'd speculate its down to playing noticeably fewer games, and more rotation/experimentation.


14 - Belgium
9 - Germany, Switzerland
8 - Austria, Estonia, Iceland, Northern Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Turkey
7 - Belarus, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Eire, Italy, Malta, Slovakia, Ukraine, Wales
6 - Croatia, Finland, France, Luxembourg, Moldova, Poland
5 - Andorra, England, Hungary, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Russia
4 - Armenia, Azerbaijan, Denmark, Georgia, Greece, Netherlands, Serbia, Slovenia, Sweden
3 - Cyprus, San Marino
2 - Albania, Faroe Islands, Israel, FYR Macedonia, Scotland
1 - Bulgaria, Czech Rep, Kazakhstan, Lithuania, Montenegro, Romania
0 - Gibraltar, Kosovo, Norway


Azerbaijan, Eire, England, Estonia, Hungary, Israel, Italy, Liechtenstein, Malta, Netherlands, Northern Ireland, Portugal, Russia and Spain have players with 100+ caps!

[Guest DAVIDB69]

As always I think we will fall just short, personally I would prefer the last two falling the other way round. Just can't see us beating Slovakia . We do seem to have inherited the English way of thinking, if they aren't from one of the big countries we should be better than them. Which is far from reality.

Wales v Ireland is the crucial other game, the sitting waiting on other results for two days is a problem as well.

[Blootoon87]

Bale out of Wales final two games. Nice one.

[JakeSAFC]

I think we will beat Slovakia on Thursday. Then get a hammering out in Slovenia.

[DanMc99]

just can't see us winning two in a row

[forameus]

I'm oddly confident to  be honest.  I think there will actually be a belief amongst the players that they can do it, rather than the usual "well we'll probably get beat anyway" one, and that seems to be backed up by the interviews coming out of the camp.  

My worry is the Slovenia game.  We eked out those 2 wins in the last window fairly easily, but if we're still alive by Sunday then we will have probably had an absolutely grueling Thursday night behind us.  We've definitely got it in us to win one, but two?  As long as we go out swinging, then the campaign will have looked a lot better by the end than it did midway through.