The Wee "Will-we-qualify-probably-not" Thread: Nations League Edition

[Blootoon87]

So a draw in the Ukraine v Croatia game will do for us now? Fine to have another safety net.

[Fuctifano]

Croatia drawing at home with Finland gives us another "out" in terms of not being worst RU (assuming we win on Sunday, which basically every post does)- if Ukraine and Croatia draw we can't be worst RU

[paddymcp]

Just now, Blootoon87 said:

So a draw in the Ukraine v Croatia game will do for us now? Fine to have another safety net.

Yes. Failing to beat Finland at home is a shocking result for them. Not sure Ukraine are that great either. Hopefully they both cancel each other out with their own shittyness.

[Guest DAVIDB69]

So a draw in the Ukraine v Croatia game will do for us now? Fine to have another safety net.

Will be an open game as a draw does nothing for either but it's something to hold on to as a saver if it drags to monday

[skippy2015]

Bear in mind that our GD isn't +5 as the two Malta results come off.
I think our only hopes are Belgium not taking the foot off the gas vs Bosnia, or Wales / Ireland draw or Ireland win.
I already started the acca, put £20 in play on Wales at HT (didn't realise it was a 5pm ko)

Norway beating ireland and Netherlands beating Sweden also enough as they would both be on 13 we would be 14

[Guest DAVIDB69]

Updated second placer table on wiki

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_(UEFA)

[lionel hutz]

22 hours ago, paddymcp said:

I think we can all agree if we beat Slovenia it's operation avoid Italy and possibly Portugal. All the rest are as beatable as we are.

Nah - I think we can take both Italy and Portugal, just need to get past Slovenia first!

HERE WE FUCKING GO!!!!!

[Fuctifano]

So, assuming we win, we need one of...

Group A still a bit too unclear but ideally wanting Holland to beat Sweden in the last game

Group B we can't catch

Group C we need NI to lose in Norway

Group D we need Wales to not win vs Ireland  OR Serbia to not win vs Georgia

Group E we need Denmark to lose at home to Romania

Group G despite Italy's shithousery tonight we can't catch barring miracle GD swings.

Group H we need Bosnia to not take 6 points vs Belgium H and Estonia A

Group I we need Ukraine - Croatia draw. We could just about pip Ukraine on GS if we win by 3 and they win by 1, but that's a bit fanciful.

[paddymcp]

Our goal difference is 3 worse than Croatia. Unlikely but if we pummel Slovenia by enough and they still win we COULD qualify ahead of them. #clutching

 if Ukraine win their goal difference is only 2 better than ours. The same method applies.

 

[Guest DAVIDB69]

Yes I Ukraine beat Croatia they will likely overhaul us well, Bosnia v Belgium is the likely decider tomorrow

[paddymcp]

Bosnia not winning against Belgium and Wales failing to defeat Ireland are the two main hopes i feel.

The rest is just clutching.

Hopefully Belgium do us a turn tomorrow would be an anti climax winning in Slovenia and not knowing if youve qualified or not lol

[skippy2015]

Portugal Italy Croatia and Wales- no brainer of we win and all goes our way we want 1 Wales 2 Croatia 3 Portugal 4 Italy

[Guest DAVIDB69]

Bosnia not winning against Belgium and Wales failing to defeat Ireland are the two main hopes i feel.

The rest is just clutching.

Hopefully Belgium do us a turn tomorrow would be an anti climax winning in Slovenia and not knowing if youve qualified or not lol

My main concern with both of these is wales and Bosnia both have to go for it.

We will know the likely scenario about 7pm tomorrow

[paddymcp]

1 minute ago, DAVIDB69 said:

 

My main concern with both of these is wales and Bosnia both have to go for it.

We will know the likely scenario about 7pm tomorrow

 

Ireland have to go for it aswell.

Wales and Ireland could still finish top of their group if Serbia get beaten again.  All to play for.

[forameus]

Another interesting night of games, and if nothing else it proves that the Euros campaign last time was no fluke - we're actually getting some interesting permutations in what is usually a pretty closed shop.  Good news all round.

Anyway...

Friday 6th October

Group D

Georgia 0 - 1 Wales
R. of Ireland 2 - 0 Moldova
Austria 3 - 2 Serbia

I had already started to write this up without realising that Austria had got a late, late winner.  That really opens up this group going into the final day.  Three teams separated by 2 points, and any one of them could qualify automatically.  Despite that defeat, Serbia are surely still the favourites with a home match against Georgia to come.  Still, stranger things have happened, and they were just beaten by an Austria side that didn't look too clever previously.  Wales play Eire obviously in Cardiff in Monday, in what will be an enormous clash.  Winner takes it all, and the loser is leaving with nothing.  Big.

Pos	Team v t e	Pld	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Qualification
1	Serbia (Y)	9	5	3	1	19	10	+9	18	Qualification to 2018 FIFA World Cup		—	1–1	2–2	3–2	9 Oct	3–0
2	Wales	9	4	5	0	13	5	+8	17	Possible second round[a]		1–1	—	9 Oct	1–0	1–1	4–0
3	Republic of Ireland	9	4	4	1	11	6	+5	16			0–1	0–0	—	1–1	1–0	2–0
4	Austria (E)	9	3	3	3	13	12	+1	12			3–2	2–2	0–1	—	1–1	2–0
5	Georgia (E)	9	0	5	4	8	13	−5	5			1–3	0–1	1–1	1–2	—	1–1
6	Moldova (E)	9	0	2	7	4	22	−18	2			0–3	0–2	1–3	9 Oct	2–2	—

Group I

Turkey 0 - 3 Iceland
Croatia 1 - 1 Finland
Kosovo 0 - 2 Ukraine

Massive result for Iceland with that win, and they've turned a 4-team group into a 3-team one.  With just Kosovo to come, I'd expect Iceland to wrap it up and qualify automatically, which would be brilliant for them.  Then it'll be between Croatia and Ukraine for the final spot.  Terrible result for Croatia at home tonight, and with that defeat of Kosovo Ukraine have really ramped up the pressure.

And what's that final fixture?  Croatia vs Ukraine, in Kiev.  Daaaayum.  

Pos	Team v t e	Pld	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Qualification
1	Iceland (X)	9	6	1	2	14	7	+7	19	Qualification to 2018 FIFA World Cup		—	1–0	2–0	2–0	3–2	9 Oct
2	Croatia	9	5	2	2	13	4	+9	17	Possible second round[a]		2–0	—	1–0	1–1	1–1	1–0
3	Ukraine	9	5	2	2	13	7	+6	17			1–1	9 Oct	—	2–0	1–0	3–0
4	Turkey (E)	9	4	2	3	12	11	+1	14			0–3	1–0	2–2	—	2–0	2–0
5	Finland (E)	9	2	2	5	7	11	−4	8			1–0	0–1	1–2	9 Oct	—	1–1
6	Kosovo (E)	9	0	1	8	3	22	−19	1			1–2	0–6	0–2	1–4	0–1	—

In terms of potential opponents, a win for either Croatia or Ukraine would take them onto 20 points, which would become 14 given both have beaten Kosovo twice so far.  I expect both will end up with a better goal difference than we will, unfortunately.  I believe Croatia will be seeded, but not sure Ukraine will be.

Group G

Liechtenstein 0 - 1 Israel
Italy 1 - 1 Macedonia
Spain 3 - 0 Albania

Well, looks like Italy have chucked it.  Guaranteed a playoff spot, probably even if they get a bad defeat in their final game, but is this a chink in their armour they're showing to potential playoff opponents?  They'll still be a daunting opponent, but a 1-1 with Macedonia at home is not the best preparation.  Other than that, it's essentially academic.  Italy will take their place in the playoff, Spain will go to the World Cup, and everyone else goes home to plan for the Nations League.

Pos	Team v t e	Pld	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Qualification
1	Spain (Q)	9	8	1	0	35	3	+32	25	Qualification to 2018 FIFA World Cup		—	3–0	3–0	4–1	4–0	8–0
2	Italy (A)	9	6	2	1	20	8	+12	20	Possible second round[a]		1–1	—	2–0	1–0	1–1	5–0
3	Albania (Z)	9	4	1	4	10	12	−2	13			0–2	9 Oct	—	0–3	2–1	2–0
4	Israel (E)	9	4	0	5	10	14	−4	12			9 Oct	1–3	0–3	—	0–1	2–1
5	Macedonia (E)	9	2	2	5	11	15	−4	8			1–2	2–3	1–1	1–2	—	9 Oct
6	Liechtenstein (E)	9	0	0	9	1	35	−34	0			0–8	0–4	0–2	0–1	0–3	—

Second Placed Sides

 

Pos	Grp	Team v t e	Pld	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Qualification
1	B	Portugal (X)	6	5	0	1	21	3	+18	15	Advance to second round (play-offs)
2	G	Italy (Y, Z)	7	4	2	1	11	8	+3	14
3	E	Denmark	7	4	1	2	12	5	+7	13
4	C	Northern Ireland (Y, Z)	7	4	1	2	10	5	+5	13
5	D	Wales	7	2	5	0	7	5	+2	11
6	I	Croatia	7	3	2	2	6	4	+2	11
7	F	Scotland (Z)	7	3	2	2	8	9	−1	11
8	A	Sweden	6	3	1	2	10	7	+3	10
9	H	Bosnia and Herzegovina (Z)	6	2	2	2	10	8	+2	8

 

again, this is hard to predict until at least tomorrow, and could well change from minute to minute in the final round of games, but the picture is starting to get a little clearer.  Our heavy defeats to England and Slovakia are weighing heavy around our neck in terms of goal difference, as is that draw against Lithuania.  Still, with Groups A and H coming tomorrow, it could look a lot better come this time tomorrow night.  

And to polish it all off, if things were to stay as they were, here would be the seeds/non-seeds

Portugal (3rd)
Wales (13th)
Italy (17th)
Croatia (18th)
---------------------------------
Northern Ireland (20th)
Sweden (23rd)
Denmark (26th)
Scotland (43rd)
---------------------------------
Bosnia and Herzegovina (36th)

If it was to stay this way, we would replace Northern Ireland as a potential opponent with Croatia.  Not so good.  If Ukraine could pip Croatia, they would become the non-seeds and Northern Ireland would be seeded instead.  Still so much to play for.

[professor challenger]

1 hour ago, Highlandmagyar 2nd String said:

All this expectation. Desperately thrashing about hoping for this result and that result. I just find it utterly hilarious. We are rank with a fud as a manager. It would just be typical Scotland to go into the Slovenia game needing a win as results elsewhere going for them and blowing it.

I'm actually embarrassed at someone with your outlook purporting to support Thistle

[forameus]

Just now, professor challenger said:

I'm actually embarrassed at someone with your outlook purporting to support Thistle

To be fair, he fits the profile of some of the zoomers that sit behind me in the JHS.  I wouldn't be surprised if he was one of them.

[Big Fifer]

Reading the past few pages has made my heid hurt.

[Gordopolis]

Reading the past few pages has made my heid hurt.

Yep, I read about 8 pages. Conclusion: f*ck knows

[Big Fifer]

Yep, I read about 8 pages. Conclusion: f*ck knows

I think I'll read this thread again at 10pm tomorrow and see where we're at. Hopefully I'll read it after a 3-0 Belgium win.