forameus Posted September 26, 2017 Share Posted September 26, 2017 Almost time for another thrilling round of competitive International football, and once again it's one that's absolutely crucial for us. Our task is simple - we need to win both our games - but should we do it, our fate and set of potential opponents aren't as certain. I'll use this thread to update after each round of fixtures exactly where we stand. Then we can maybe use it as a tearful memorial of what could have been if we get scudded on Thursday night. I posted a wall-of-text on what our hopes were in another thread, that post is in the spoiler tags below EDIT: I fucked up the spoiler tags, and now I can't seem to reassign them. Pish. I know I just said it was hard to predict, but f**k it, I like this kind of thing. Because like Meadow_Jock says, I'm a helpful nerd. All of this is assuming we reach that magic 14 point mark with two wins. 12 would likely see us finish bottom, if we manage 2nd at all. Group A - France, Sweden, Netherlands, Bulgaria. Pretty unlikely that the latter two will make 2nd, looking like either France or Sweden. France's draw with Luxembourg puts them in a dangerous spot, but I'd expect they'd have enough in the tank with matches against Bulgaria and Belarus to come. Sweden have Luxembourg and then the Netherlands, so expecting at least 3 from that, but then the bottom spot in the group isn't decided yet. Luxembourg and Belarus are level on 5 points - if the latter finishes bottom, Sweden can pick up 6 points from these two games, if it's the former, only 3. We'd ideally need a heavy win for Sweden in Luxembourg, them to finish bottom, and then a draw between Sweden and Netherlands. They'd be on 11 points then, and we'd finish above them. If Belarus finish bottom, Sweden would move up to 14, and it would come down to goal difference. We don't want that. Group B - Switzerland and Portugal. Group is irrelevant. We can't catch either side no matter what happens. Group C - Northern Ireland. Germany are pretty much home and hosed, so it's just one team we can potentially catch. Looking unlikely though - they've got Germany in their next game, but then an absolutely dreadful Norway side in the final match. 1 point from two games would likely be enough to see them ahead of us and 3 would definitely be enough. If Norway manage to win somehow, as do Germany, we would finish ahead of them Group D - Wales, Republic of Ireland, maybe Serbia. One of the big ones to watch. Ireland look like they've chucked it with their defeat against Serbia, letting Wales back in. Good result for us though, as it bunches up the table quite nicely. Serbia have Austria and Georgia left to play and 3 points there will see them top no matter what. Think we can forget about them. Wales have to go to Tbilisi (lol) and then have a huge match in Cardiff against Ireland, with them playing Moldova before. I expect both sides will get 3 points in their other matches. Then it comes down to that last game. A win for Ireland and we'd finish ahead of them. A draw and we'd finish ahead of Wales. A Wales win would take it down to goal difference, which we wouldn't come out on top of I don't think. Group E - Poland, Montenegro, Denmark. Likely to be one of the latter 2 that gets 2nd, and 2 wins for either would see them above us. 4 points for either (they play each other) would take it down to goal difference Group G - Italy. Lol. We're not catching them. The only situation we could would be if they lose at home to Macedonia and then away in Albania. One win from two games would see them above us, as could a point. Group H - Bosnia, Greece, Cyprus. Cyprus aren't totally out of it, and play Greece next. A win for them would really help us, particularly while Bosnia play Belgium at the same time. A win wouldn't be the worst thing in the world for us either though - if Greece win and Bosnia lose, Greece will likely qualify due to playing Gibraltar on final day. However, those 3 points will drop off, and the most points they can manage is 13. We'd finish ahead of them. Group I - Croatia, Iceland, Turkey, Ukraine. Big fucking shrug here. 4 sides separated by 2 points, so really is anyone's game. Ukraine and Iceland both have Kosovo to play, so should expect 3 points from that. Iceland also play Turkey and Croatia play Ukraine. Honestly, could be anyone finishing top and 2nd there. Kosovo have been roundly pumped though, so whoever finishes 2nd, they'll drop 6 points from their total. Worst case, Iceland and Croatia win both of their games, finish on 22 points, and out of our reach. Best case, they all cut each others throats. So what have we learned? Short of something crazy happening, 4 points for us is likely to see us finish in either 3rd or 4th. We have to beat Slovakia, but then a draw against Slovenia would mean we'd have to get a better scoreline against Slovakia than they manage against Malta. They beat them 1-0, we have to beat them 2-0. Etc etc. I can't see that happening. But if we do win both of our games, I'd be very confident of finishing amongst the 8. Not that it means anything at all, but below is the second placed table at this stage. Can all change from one game to the next, so will keep updating after each round of fixtures. Pos Grp Team v t e Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts Qualification 1 B Portugal (X) 6 5 0 1 21 3 +18 15 Advance to second round (play-offs) 2 C Northern Ireland (Y) 6 4 1 1 9 2 +7 13 3 G Italy 6 4 1 1 10 7 +3 13 4 I Iceland 7 4 1 2 9 6 +3 13 5 F Slovakia 7 4 0 3 11 5 +6 12 6 A Sweden 6 3 1 2 10 7 +3 10 7 E Montenegro 6 3 1 2 10 7 +3 10 8 H Bosnia and Herzegovina (Z) 6 2 2 2 10 8 +2 8 9 D Wales 6 1 5 0 6 5 +1 8 We play on Thursday night, so we're amongst the first to get kicked off during the window. Matches then continue on through Friday and Saturday, before the final round of fixtures on Sunday through Tuesday. Fixtures are below, with the red ones really of interest to us. either directly or indirectly. Thursday 5th October Group F Scotland vs SlovakiaEngland vs Slovenia Malta vs Lithuania Group C Azerbaijan vs Czech Republic San Marino vs Norway Northern Ireland vs Germany Group E Armenia vs Poland Montenegro vs Denmark Romania vs Kazakhstan Friday 6th October Group D Georgia vs Wales R. of Ireland vs Moldova Austria vs Serbia Group I Turkey vs Iceland Croatia vs Finland Kosovo vs Ukraine Group G Liechtenstein vs Israel Italy vs Macedonia Spain vs Albania Saturday 7th October Group H Bosnia vs Belgium Gibraltar vs EstoniaCyprus vs Greece Group A Sweden vs Luxembourg Belarus vs Netherlands Bulgaria vs France Group B Faroe Islands vs Latvia Switzerland vs Hungary Andorra vs Portugal I'll put up the next round of fixtures after all of Saturday's results are done, unless we're already out, in that case I'll put up a big silly frowny face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
invergowrie arab Posted September 26, 2017 Share Posted September 26, 2017 Will need a massive game to beat Slovakia. What i found interesting in Euro 2016, and I dont know if it was by design or expediency but Slovakia have a huge amount of caps in the squad. Looking at current squads from wiki they still seem t be well ahead and that international experience must count for a lot. Is it because we change, start capping englishmen in their 30s, dont play enough games? 23 GK Martin Dúbravka 15 January 1989 (aged 28) 6 0 Sparta Prague 1 GK Ján Novota 29 November 1983 (aged 33) 4 0 Debreceni VSC 12 GK Martin Polaček 2 April 1990 (aged 27) 0 0 Zagłębie Lubin 3 DF Martin Škrtel (captain) 15 December 1984 (aged 32) 91 6 Fenerbahçe 4 DF Ján Ďurica 10 December 1981 (aged 35) 89 4 Trabzonspor 2 DF Peter Pekarík 30 October 1986 (aged 30) 77 2 Hertha BSC 15 DF Tomáš Hubočan 17 September 1985 (aged 31) 54 0 Marseille 5 DF Norbert Gyömbér 3 July 1992 (aged 25) 18 0 Bari 1908 18 DF Erik Sabo 22 November 1991 (aged 25) 12 0 Beitar Jerusalem 14 DF Milan Škriniar 11 February 1995 (aged 22) 11 0 Inter Milan DF Lukáš Štetina 28 July 1991 (aged 26) 1 0 Sparta Prague 16 DF Róbert Mazáň 9 February 1994 (aged 23) 0 0 Žilina 17 MF Marek Hamšík (vice-captain) 27 July 1987 (aged 30) 99 21 Napoli 7 MF Vladimír Weiss 30 November 1989 (aged 27) 62 7 Al-Gharafa 19 MF Juraj Kucka 26 February 1987 (aged 30) 56 6 Trabzonspor 20 MF Róbert mhak 8 March 1991 (aged 26) 38 9 PAOK 13 MF Patrik Hrošovský 22 April 1992 (aged 25) 17 0 Viktoria Plzeň 8 MF Ondrej Duda 5 December 1994 (aged 22) 16 2 Hertha BSC 6 MF Ján Greguš 29 January 1991 (aged 26) 14 1 Copenhagen 10 MF Albert Rusnák 7 July 1994 (aged 23) 5 0 Real Salt Lake 22 MF Stanislav Lobotka 25 November 1994 (aged 22) 3 1 Celta Vigo 9 MF Jaroslav Mihalík 27 July 1994 (aged 23) 0 0 Cracovia 21 FW Michal Ďuriš 1 June 1988 (aged 29) 36 4 Orenburg 11 FW Adam Nemec 2 September 1985 (aged 32) 30 9 Dinamo București GK Jordan Archer 12 April 1993 (age 24) 0 0 Millwall GK Craig Gordon 31 December 1982 (age 34) 49 0 Celtic GK Allan McGregor 31 January 1982 (age 35) 36 0 Hull City DF Ikechi Anya 3 January 1988 (age 29) 27 3 Derby County DF Christophe Berra 31 January 1985 (age 32) 38 4 Heart of Midlothian DF Liam Cooper 30 August 1991 (age 26) 0 0 Leeds United DF Grant Hanley 20 November 1991 (age 25) 28 1 Norwich City DF Charlie Mulgrew 6 March 1986 (age 31) 29 2 Blackburn Rovers DF Andrew Robertson 11 March 1994 (age 23) 17 2 Liverpool DF Kieran Tierney 5 June 1997 (age 20) 6 0 Celtic DF Steven Whittaker 16 June 1984 (age 33) 31 0 Hibernian MF Stuart Armstrong 30 March 1992 (age 25) 4 1 Celtic MF Barry Bannan 1 December 1989 (age 27) 25 0 Sheffield Wednesday MF Scott Brown 25 June 1985 (age 32) 55 4 Celtic MF Darren Fletcher 1 February 1984 (age 33) 78 5 Stoke City MF James Forrest 7 July 1991 (age 26) 19 0 Celtic MF Ryan Fraser 24 February 1994 (age 23) 1 0 Bournemouth MF James McArthur 7 October 1987 (age 29) 30 4 Crystal Palace MF John McGinn 18 October 1994 (age 22) 4 0 Hibernian MF James Morrison 25 May 1986 (age 31) 45 3 West Bromwich Albion MF Matt Phillips 13 March 1991 (age 26) 6 0 West Bromwich Albion MF Matt Ritchie 10 September 1989 (age 28) 15 3 Newcastle United MF Robert Snodgrass 7 September 1987 (age 30) 24 6 Aston Villa FW Steven Fletcher 26 March 1987 (age 30) 30 9 Sheffield Wednesday FW Leigh Griffiths 20 August 1990 (age 27) 15 3 Celtic FW Chris Martin 4 November 1988 (age 28) 15 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sergie's no1 fan Posted September 26, 2017 Share Posted September 26, 2017 Gut instinct is we'll do the usual. I think we'll probably draw twice, maybe even lead against Slovakia and they'll get a late equaliser. England struggled against this mob at Wembley. Then away to Slovenia we'll have the tiniest of chances still to go through, lose an early goal and it will kill off all hope. The Lithuania result done us, we all knew at the time. Beating England at home would have made up for it so that result was a double kick in the nuts. Would love to be proved wrong but the most I can see us getting is 4 points maximum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forameus Posted September 26, 2017 Author Share Posted September 26, 2017 I can't see us losing either game, but I think we may end up drawing on Thursday, which will render Sunday completely pointless. Should we win on Thursday - which absolutely isn't beyond us - then Sunday will be an odd game. When was the last time we had a good chance going into the final game away from home? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lurkst Posted September 26, 2017 Share Posted September 26, 2017 1 hour ago, forameus said: When was the last time we had a good chance going into the final game away from home? Euro2012, but we needed to win in Spain. With the joker option that the Czechs needed to get a result in Lithuania. We didn't and they did though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forameus Posted September 26, 2017 Author Share Posted September 26, 2017 Just now, Lurkst said: Euro2012, but we needed to win in Spain. With the joker option that the Czechs needed to get a result in Lithuania. We didn't and they did though. Was thinking it was that one, but I didn't class beating Spain as a realistic option Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HibeeJibee Posted September 26, 2017 Share Posted September 26, 2017 To answer InvergowrieArab's point - in 10yrs since 2007 we've played 87 internationals. Slovakia have played 113 internationals. That will in part account for the difference in caps totals. Their total is 26 higher. It does include 8 matches in finals tournaments (WC 2010 and Euro 2016) but the remaining 18 will be from playing approximately 2 more friendlies per season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lurkst Posted September 26, 2017 Share Posted September 26, 2017 6 minutes ago, forameus said: Was thinking it was that one, but I didn't class beating Spain as a realistic option True that. It's actually been a long time in that case. Obviously there were the play off 2nd legs v Holland in 2003 & England in 99. But in terms of a final group game crunch away tie, I think you've got to back to Wales in 85 the night Jock Stein died. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adamski Posted September 26, 2017 Share Posted September 26, 2017 There will be a point between the beginning of the Slovakia game and the end of the Slovenia game where if results stay as they are, we'll finish second. We won't finish second. Only alternative is the missed crucial penalty/legit goal chalked off for us/opposition scoring a goal that shouldn't have stood route to see us out. What was it that Renton said about being Scottish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
invergowrie arab Posted September 26, 2017 Share Posted September 26, 2017 47 minutes ago, HibeeJibee said: To answer InvergowrieArab's point - in 10yrs since 2007 we've played 87 internationals. Slovakia have played 113 internationals. That will in part account for the difference in caps totals. Their total is 26 higher. It does include 8 matches in finals tournaments (WC 2010 and Euro 2016) but the remaining 18 will be from playing approximately 2 more friendlies per season. As well as that I noticed their top players had more caps. Again maybe no more to it than you pick your best players continually from a young age but I thought it was interesting and noticed it in a few other squads too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christophe Posted September 26, 2017 Share Posted September 26, 2017 My first instinct is that most countries recognise a potential talent and get him into the full squad and playing minutes as teenagers...Scotland managers over the years have seemed to agonise about exposing 25-year old 'laddies' to too much first team football. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted September 26, 2017 Share Posted September 26, 2017 So after last month's farce, is this the official thread for the matches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Highlandmagyar 2nd String Posted September 27, 2017 Share Posted September 27, 2017 We won't do it. We are pish, with a fud as a manager. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordopolis Posted September 27, 2017 Share Posted September 27, 2017 18 hours ago, Christophe said: My first instinct is that most countries recognise a potential talent and get him into the full squad and playing minutes as teenagers...Scotland managers over the years have seemed to agonise about exposing 25-year old 'laddies' to too much first team football. I'd agree with that (along with @HibeeJibee's point about shiting out of taking friendlies). We've always been too choppy-changey with squads and as a result I'd bet we have far less 50 cap plus players than most other countries (HJ to confirm?) More caps doesn't make you a better international, but it does give you a better chance of becoming a veteran at that level before you're in your 30s. That said, maybe only Burke and Tierney from the current crop would - IMO - fit into that 'pick them regardless of form' level of quality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HibeeJibee Posted September 27, 2017 Share Posted September 27, 2017 Below is a rank of UEFA nations by number of players with 50+ caps who've featured in squads during last year. Given we're not having a squad rebuild I'd speculate its down to playing noticeably fewer games, and more rotation/experimentation. 14 - Belgium 9 - Germany, Switzerland 8 - Austria, Estonia, Iceland, Northern Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Turkey 7 - Belarus, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Eire, Italy, Malta, Slovakia, Ukraine, Wales 6 - Croatia, Finland, France, Luxembourg, Moldova, Poland 5 - Andorra, England, Hungary, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Russia 4 - Armenia, Azerbaijan, Denmark, Georgia, Greece, Netherlands, Serbia, Slovenia, Sweden 3 - Cyprus, San Marino 2 - Albania, Faroe Islands, Israel, FYR Macedonia, Scotland 1 - Bulgaria, Czech Rep, Kazakhstan, Lithuania, Montenegro, Romania 0 - Gibraltar, Kosovo, Norway Azerbaijan, Eire, England, Estonia, Hungary, Israel, Italy, Liechtenstein, Malta, Netherlands, Northern Ireland, Portugal, Russia and Spain have players with 100+ caps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest DAVIDB69 Posted September 27, 2017 Share Posted September 27, 2017 As always I think we will fall just short, personally I would prefer the last two falling the other way round. Just can't see us beating Slovakia . We do seem to have inherited the English way of thinking, if they aren't from one of the big countries we should be better than them. Which is far from reality.Wales v Ireland is the crucial other game, the sitting waiting on other results for two days is a problem as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blootoon87 Posted October 3, 2017 Share Posted October 3, 2017 Bale out of Wales final two games. Nice one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakeSAFC Posted October 3, 2017 Share Posted October 3, 2017 I think we will beat Slovakia on Thursday. Then get a hammering out in Slovenia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanMc99 Posted October 3, 2017 Share Posted October 3, 2017 just can't see us winning two in a row Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forameus Posted October 3, 2017 Author Share Posted October 3, 2017 I'm oddly confident to be honest. I think there will actually be a belief amongst the players that they can do it, rather than the usual "well we'll probably get beat anyway" one, and that seems to be backed up by the interviews coming out of the camp. My worry is the Slovenia game. We eked out those 2 wins in the last window fairly easily, but if we're still alive by Sunday then we will have probably had an absolutely grueling Thursday night behind us. We've definitely got it in us to win one, but two? As long as we go out swinging, then the campaign will have looked a lot better by the end than it did midway through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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