LongTimeLurker Posted September 25, 2017 Share Posted September 25, 2017 We are slowly moving back into an era when elections offer parties with genuine idological differences again, which used to be very much the norm up until the Blair/Clinton/Schroeder moved their traditional social democratic type parties towards the right. The relatively strong performances of AfD and die Linke can be understood as people on the left and right wanting genuinely left and right wing parties again after many years of having the two major parties in a grand coalition pushing very similar variants of a rigidly imposed consensus, rather than a desire to have the SS or Stasi operational again. Hope so anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HibeeJibee Posted September 25, 2017 Share Posted September 25, 2017 Final seat breakdown:CDU-CSU... 246 SPD... 153 AfD ... 94 Liberals ... 80 Die Linke ... 69 Greens ... 67 Majority ... 355 CDU-CSU and SPD both lost about about one-fifth of their vote. AfD almost trebled their vote and Liberals almost doubled theirs. Greens and Die Linke were prettymuch unchanged, slightly up. Some interesting stats in the BBC article, several of which again came as a surprise to me... AfD support was lowest among those aged over 70 and highest among those under 40 (1 in 6 votes of those aged 35-44)... They won a few constituency seats in the extreme south-east, when usually only CDU-CSU and SPD win constituency seats (plus Die Linke in East Berlin); came second in the states that make-up the former East Germany with just short of 1 in 4 votes, and came first among male votes in the former East Germany; they won the most votes in Saxony... Turnout up 4.7%... Final week opinion polling overstated CDU-CSU by 3 points; SPD by 2 points; Die Linke by 1 point - understated AfD and Liberals both by 2 points; Greens by 1 point. As noted it's a good time to have shares in whoever makes seats and desks for the German parliament with almost 80 extra parliamentarians compared to last time courtesy the top-up seats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted September 25, 2017 Share Posted September 25, 2017 This gives the Greens a huge amount of sway given the SPD have ruled themselves out as a coalition partner and AfD and Die Linke are obvious non-starters, so the Germans will be seeing even more wind turbines on the horizon in future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HibeeJibee Posted September 25, 2017 Share Posted September 25, 2017 I can't find the bit, but there was something about energy being a potential flashpoint in a 3-way coalition tbf, as the "pro-business" Liberals aren't keen and even back coalfired powerplants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted September 25, 2017 Share Posted September 25, 2017 49 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said: This gives the Greens a huge amount of sway given the SPD have ruled themselves out as a coalition partner and AfD and Die Linke are obvious non-starters, so the Germans will be seeing even more wind turbines on the horizon in future. They might find it difficult to get their agenda past the Liberals according to this. http://www.dw.com/en/germany-heads-for-green-government/a-40676147 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
topcat(The most tip top) Posted September 25, 2017 Share Posted September 25, 2017 The AFD seem to share this with UKIP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrewDon Posted September 25, 2017 Share Posted September 25, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheProgressiveLiberal Posted September 25, 2017 Share Posted September 25, 2017 5 hours ago, Alan Stubbs said: What are the 'legitimate concerns' crew's thoughts on these concerns usually coming from those with the least contact with immigrants? If AfD are the voice of these concerns in Germany, why would there be over twice as much concern in the country's whitest state than the national average? Folk being convinced by Goldman Sachs bankers to rail against those elites and take out their own sense of inadequacy on immigrants thar they've had relatively little contact with. Thick bigots sounds fair to me. The argument is that those "white areas" in Germany, much like the USA, have experienced massive economic losses in the post cold War globalist economy. The people there notice this. Where race comes in is that they notice the people flooding the successful areas of the country are not the people from domestic economically disadvantaged areas, it's people from the 3rd world. In America we've seen a reversal of the traditional movement from rural areas towards modern economic prosperity in California as immigrants have replaced working class people from small farm towns in middle America (think Ronald Reagans family moving from Illinois to California) as the main source of migrants. Then there's been a second trend of working class California natives moving out, literally by the millions. I'd imagine something similar is in the process of happening in Germany. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheProgressiveLiberal Posted September 25, 2017 Share Posted September 25, 2017 11 minutes ago, DrewDon said: Right, it's the same as your stereotypical Trump voter in the US. Trump voters weren't the methheads. The most stereotypical Trump voters were the semi-successful people in areas of the country where the culture has taken a nosedive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HibeeJibee Posted September 25, 2017 Share Posted September 25, 2017 I think the 'economic situation' chart is very interesting. Despite the German economy being strong and unemployment being low versus elsewhere, plus most people (even 3/4 of hard left or hard right voters) saying their personal economic situation is good, the hard left vote rose slightly on 2013 and the hard right vote trebled. No simple "it's the economy stupid" maxim fits this. Three more interesting stats: - turnout up 2.6M of which number-crunchers think at least 1.1M were new voters choosing AfD. - CDU/CSU lost over 2.6M votes but only 20k went SPD and 50k to Greens. More went Die Linke (70k); minors (70k); AfD (1.1M); and Liberals (1.3M). - meanwhile SPD's 1.7M losses were very evenly distributed - 0.4M to Greens, 0.4M to Die Linke, 0.5M to AfD, 0.4M to Liberals. Took hits from all sides. - 1 in 5 voted hard left/hard right... in former East Germany: 2 in 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bob the tank Posted September 25, 2017 Share Posted September 25, 2017 These fuckin Germans just can't stop putting people in charge who try to destroy the West. Your adopted country supplied the German rearmament during the 1930's after all, which maybe helped with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bob the tank Posted September 25, 2017 Share Posted September 25, 2017 These fuckin Germans just can't stop putting people in charge who try to destroy the West. Your adopted country supplied the German rearmament during the 1930's after all, which maybe helped with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bob the tank Posted September 25, 2017 Share Posted September 25, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted September 26, 2017 Share Posted September 26, 2017 13 hours ago, HibeeJibee said: I think the 'economic situation' chart is very interesting. Despite the German economy being strong and unemployment being low versus elsewhere, plus most people (even 3/4 of hard left or hard right voters) saying their personal economic situation is good, the hard left vote rose slightly on 2013 and the hard right vote trebled. No simple "it's the economy stupid" maxim fits this... The part of the former East Germany that voted most heavily AfD was the area that was most out of range of West German TV transmission before the Wall came down and hence most East European in its outlook in a post-Communist sort of way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
topcat(The most tip top) Posted September 26, 2017 Share Posted September 26, 2017 4 hours ago, LongTimeLurker said: The part of the former East Germany that voted most heavily AfD was the area that was most out of range of West German TV transmission before the Wall came down and hence most East European in its outlook in a post-Communist sort of way. "The Valley of the Clueless"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tal_der_Ahnungslosen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HibeeJibee Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 Austria held their parliamentary election today. Preliminary results:OVP (Conservatives) ... 61 seats FPO (Far Right) ... 53 seats SPO (Social Democrats) ... 52 seats NEOS (Liberals) ... 9 seats Pilz (Green splinter) ... 8 seats Greens ... 0 seats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 12 hours ago, HibeeJibee said: Austria held their parliamentary election today. Preliminary results:OVP (Conservatives) ... 61 seats FPO (Far Right) ... 53 seats SPO (Social Democrats) ... 52 seats NEOS (Liberals) ... 9 seats Pilz (Green splinter) ... 8 seats Greens ... 0 seats The results are even more disappointing than your choice of topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suspect Device Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 Captain Von Trapp will not be happy with the anschluss into the German election thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glassnahalf Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 Too much anger .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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