Iraqi Kurdistan Referendum

[Savage Henry]

Worth noting, I suppose, that along with the Catalan referendum, the KRG have called a referendum for the 25th of September.  This being in the face of the international community telling them not to and last minute talks aimed at postponement.  Those talks look to have failed, and there's more than likely going to be a yes vote.  What happens next is anyone's guess, as economically the KRG is in no place whatsoever to implement it.  Certainly, the US and UK (and French)  governments have an Iraqi policy based on a unified Iraq.  This referendum is going to piss off a lot of people in Iran, Turkey and Baghdad as well.  There's talk on the ground here that the government hasn't actually got around to printing ballot papers yet.  

Israel has come out and said, in effect, "gaun yerself, Kurdistan".  

It's going to be interesting viewing, certainly.

 

 

[welshbairn]

Kurdistan were close to getting their own state across the region after WW1, think the French stymied it. Had a brief mini state in Iran during WW2, and some recognition as an independent people by the Soviets. This is from memory, some details may be bollocks. They weren't always the good guys though, they basically carried out the Armenian genocide on behalf of the Turks.

[John Lambies Doos]

The Kurds are gid c***s

[NotThePars]

1 hour ago, Savage Henry said:

Worth noting, I suppose, that along with the Catalan referendum, the KRG have called a referendum for the 25th of September.  This being in the face of the international community telling them not to and last minute talks aimed at postponement.  Those talks look to have failed, and there's more than likely going to be a yes vote.  What happens next is anyone's guess, as economically the KRG is in no place whatsoever to implement it.  Certainly, the US and UK (and French)  governments have an Iraqi policy based on a unified Iraq.  This referendum is going to piss off a lot of people in Iran, Turkey and Baghdad as well.  There's talk on the ground here that the government hasn't actually got around to printing ballot papers yet.  

Israel has come out and said, in effect, "gaun yerself, Kurdistan".  

It's going to be interesting viewing, certainly.

 

 

 

I remember reading that de facto Kurdistani independence within the Iraqi state was preferable to full independence as it wouldn't provoke Turkish opposition to the same extent so I wonder what's changed now that they don't appear to give a toss. Israeli and covert US backing? I know that the Kurds are worried about history repeating itself and that they're going to get shafted by the west again as soon as the threat of Islamic State disappears and they're no longer a useful local ally.

[Joey Jo Jo Junior Shabadoo]

53 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

They weren't always the good guys though, they basically carried out the Armenian genocide on behalf of the Turks.

 

31 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said:

The Kurds are gid c***s

^^^Hates Armenians.

[John Lambies Doos]

Edit to above. Recently the Kurds are gid c***s

[Glenconner]

Believe Armenia and the Kurds have had good relations for many years now.

[Lurkst]

My sister in law's dad is Kurdish. His ecstasy when Saddam copped it was a sight to behold.

 

[Savage Henry]

1 hour ago, NotThePars said:

 

I remember reading that de facto Kurdistani independence within the Iraqi state was preferable to full independence as it wouldn't provoke Turkish opposition to the same extent so I wonder what's changed now that they don't appear to give a toss. Israeli and covert US backing? I know that the Kurds are worried about history repeating itself and that they're going to get shafted by the west again as soon as the threat of Islamic State disappears and they're no longer a useful local ally.

Indeed.  There isn't much by way of covert US support for this referendum, by the way.  There's actually a great deal of overt opposition.  McGurk, the heads of the State Department - both local and Washington DC - and various other delegates are currently doing all they can to convince Barzani to hold off.  They seem very downbeat about their chances of doing so, as Barzani has nothing left to lose, and everything to gain.  

The idea was that the US would give tacit support for a referendum once IS was defeated, but there's a serious disagreement on what defeated actually means.  That said, Erbil is a solid, functioning, safe city.  There's no chance the Americans would do a runner, irrespective of the result.  The hope is that Barzani simply uses any yes vote as a serious bargaining chip with Baghdad.  There's no certainty at all what's going to happen in contested territory like Mosul (which is now pretty much occupied by the Peshmerga)  and, particularly, Kirkuk.

[Kejan]

Savage, you really should write a book or at least a blog - I'd certainly pay to read about it. IIR, you've worked in the likes of Libya, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, UAE? Plus other parts of the world too. It would be a fascinating read, and even just about mundane stuff like where you bought beer, what each region was like, how the Afro-Iraqis are treated in Iraq, etc.

 

[NotThePars]

Indeed.  There isn't much by way of covert US support for this referendum, by the way.  There's actually a great deal of overt opposition.  McGurk, the heads of the State Department - both local and Washington DC - and various other delegates are currently doing all they can to convince Barzani to hold off.  They seem very downbeat about their chances of doing so, as Barzani has nothing left to lose, and everything to gain.  
The idea was that the US would give tacit support for a referendum once IS was defeated, but there's a serious disagreement on what defeated actually means.  That said, Erbil is a solid, functioning, safe city.  There's no chance the Americans would do a runner, irrespective of the result.  The hope is that Barzani simply uses any yes vote as a serious bargaining chip with Baghdad.  There's no certainty at all what's going to happen in contested territory like Mosul (which is now pretty much occupied by the Peshmerga)  and, particularly, Kirkuk.

Aye giving the Kurds greater leverage is probably the reasoning behind it. I know Patrick Cockburn at least is ambivalent about their chances of surviving on their own. As you say, Erbil is a safe (relative to Iraq anyway) city but their economy is nearly as much in the dirt as the rest of the country. Maybe what Kurdistan needs is the Best of Both Worlds? [emoji848]

[Savage Henry]

2 minutes ago, NotThePars said:

 

Aye giving the Kurds greater leverage is probably the reasoning behind it. I know Patrick Cockburn at least is ambivalent about their chances of surviving on their own. As you say, Erbil is a safe (relative to Iraq anyway) city but their economy is nearly as much in the dirt as the rest of the country. Maybe what Kurdistan needs is the Best of Both Worlds?

 

The economy here is beyond fucked.  They are proposing a new state backed entirely on non-guaranteed loans, which they currently get from Baghdad. KRG staff get paid one month in three.  The timing is so wrong, it's just "unhelpful", to use diplomatic language, to be proposing a referendum at this point.

[welshbairn]

Aye giving the Kurds greater leverage is probably the reasoning behind it. I know Patrick Cockburn at least is ambivalent about their chances of surviving on their own. As you say, Erbil is a safe (relative to Iraq anyway) city but their economy is nearly as much in the dirt as the rest of the country. Maybe what Kurdistan needs is the Best of Both Worlds? [emoji848]

As usual a big part, the biggest probably, is control of the oil fields. They could probably get independence in a second if they ceded them.

[NotThePars]

I'd have made working with Turkey a priority considering Turkey are able to heavily restrict entry into the country like they did a decade ago if my memory is correct by shutting off or restricting access to the safer bridges.

[Savage Henry]

I'd have made working with Turkey a priority considering Turkey are able to heavily restrict entry into the country like they did a decade ago if my memory is correct by shutting off or restricting access to the safer bridges.

Trouble is, the single issue most pressing for Erdogan is the idea that Kurdish autonomy splits his own Kurdish populace away from Ankara. Turkey's utter malfunction is another thorn in the Yes movement's side in the respect that, yes, what you suggest is entirely logical. Or at least would be in ideal situations.

And Erdogan's rhetoric is increasingly worrisome for the US presence here.

[welshbairn]

I'd have made working with Turkey a priority considering Turkey are able to heavily restrict entry into the country like they did a decade ago if my memory is correct by shutting off or restricting access to the safer bridges.

Unfortunately Turkey are at war with the Kurds in Turkey and Syria. There is no chance of cooperation from them, especially with the power crazed Erdogan in charge.

[NotThePars]

Unfortunately Turkey are at war with the Kurds in Turkey and Syria. There is no chance of cooperation from them, especially with the power crazed Erdogan in charge.

Aye I know I was more thinking an independent Kurdistan would give greater impetus for separatist movements in Turkey than having the World's Most Powerful Devolved Parliament[emoji769].

[AMMjag]

Provided they start wearing balaclavas, another fleg for Celtic fans to wave about.

 

 

[Savage Henry]

Absolutely mental on the ground here.  Partly because Baghdad closed the airspace and threatening to cut off the internet, and also because of a serious rise in verbally aggressive nationalism.  All the journalists - who for the most part are pretty clueless - got on the last train out of Dodge, as it were.  Turkey is threatening to close the border, which would mean an armoured vehicle to Jordan, as Baghdad airport (internal flights are still flying) is notoriously poor at processing visas on arrival at the best of times.  Things are still safe, but the chances of a Fall of Saigon type evacuation are certainly growing.

 

 

[welshbairn]

3 minutes ago, Savage Henry said:

Absolutely mental on the ground here.  Partly because Baghdad closed the airspace and threatening to cut off the internet, and also because of a serious rise in verbally aggressive nationalism.  All the journalists - who for the most part are pretty clueless - got on the last train out of Dodge, as it were.  Turkey is threatening to close the border, which would mean an armoured vehicle to Jordan, as Baghdad airport (internal flights are still flying) is notoriously poor at processing visas on arrival at the best of times.  Things are still safe, but the chances of a Fall of Saigon type evacuation are certainly growing.

 

 

Is the Iran border closed?