Dunning1874 Posted August 1, 2017 Share Posted August 1, 2017 As ever I've tried to leave this as late as possible so squads will be close to completion, as ever I'll probably get it extremely wrong anyway. Dundee United Falkirk St. Mirren Morton Dunfermline Inverness Caledonian Thistle Livingston Dumbarton Queen of the South Brechin On paper Dundee Utd and Falkirk have comfortably the strongest squads, but neither are close to being as strong as Hibs were last season. Both have some weaknesses in their sides. For Dundee Utd, Scobbie should be a solid signing but it looks like they'll be using him at left back rather than signing a good left back, playing Scobbie at centre back and getting the Edge as far away from the team as possible. A team with that utter bombscare in it simply can't be solid defensively, and that's before considering Toshney at full back. They're also going to be reliant on some notoriously inconsistent players for creativity. Maybe McKinnon will get the best out of them and Stanton, McMullan and King can all develop into the players they had the potential to be while tearing the league up, maybe one or all of them will never reach that promise and McMullan and King will be the archetypal ineffective Championship sand-dancers forever. Quality options at centre forward though. What jumps out looking at Falkirk's squad is that their first choice left back is an 18 year old. Highly rated at youth level, but he could easily end up not being as good as his reputation suggests and being a weak link. While they do have more depth throughout the squad than anyone else in the division, with excellent centre forwards and probably the best centre backs in the division, the midfield consists of decent to good players at this level rather than anyone you'd expect to be a stand out. If Sibbald does end up signing a new contract that's certainly a big boost though. I'd expect those two to end up comfortably clear of the rest in a title fight but I'd also guess that if they do it's more likely to be because the mid-table outfits are so average rather than how good those two are. It's not wildly unrealistic to suggest that one or more of St. Mirren, Dunfermline, Morton and ICT will be better than expected and compete for the title, but it's also not wildly unrealistic to suggest that any of those four could end up nowhere near the playoffs. The order I've put them in here is total guesswork. St. Mirren should still have some momentum and confidence from the end of last season, but while they're obviously unrecognisable from the team which started 16/17 they're not as strong as the team which ended it either. Reilly could recover his QoS form rather than being the dud he was at Dunfermline but he has to be viewed as a downgrade on Loy. Both Ross Stewarts and Kirkpatrick are unproven, and there's a lot of pressure on the midfield to make up for the loss of Mallan. Getting Davis back is a big boost to the defence, although there will always be question marks over how long he'll stay fit for. Morton have considerably more attacking depth than last season with Quitongo back fit while McHugh and Thomson replace the absolute liabilities that were Shankland and Oyenuga, but have gone backwards defensively. We didn't replace Gunning when he left in January and while all our centre backs are solid Championship players, none of them are the commanding presence who can organise the defence which we missed so much in the last quarter of last season. Even more importantly we haven't replaced Jamie Lindsay in midfield, and Duffy seems to have taken a notion to having the defensive space Lindsay and Murdoch covered last season covered by Gary Harkins alone as a deep lying playmaker - even when that idea is surely consigned to the bin, we're still liable to be overrun in midfield without a holding midfielder coming in. You could say that a couple of loan signings would give us a stronger squad than last season so we should be confident of top four, but equally you can say we still wouldn't be massively different from the squad which ended last season with 11 winless games. Hopefully the further signings to fill the gaps don't wait until we're winless in the middle of September this time. Dunfermline aren't much different from last season. Shiels should be a quality signing while McManus should at least be an upgrade on Reilly even if there are question marks about his ability at this level, but M'Voto is an absolute diddy and overall they just look entirely average. Still, they were only four points off the top four last season and avoiding an awful start like last season could make all the difference if all the other contenders end up being as mediocre as we all fear. I'm entirely unconvinced by ICT's signings. Obviously they've had great success in the past with picking up players from the English lower leagues so it's possible they know exactly what they're doing and some of those players will be mainstays for years to come after they go straight back up to the flight - Jonny Hayes springs to mind - but if those players don't deliver they are fucked. The known quantities they have signed don't inspire confidence. Baird is a competent enough player at this level but unlikely to fire anyone to the title. Then there's Joe Chalmers, Alex Cooper and Mark fucking Ridgers. The players they've held on to from last season are really the only positive, Draper the most obvious, but unless Robertson can get all the players still there back to the kind of form that saw them finishing in the top six of the Premiership you'd have to say a St. Mirren-esque first season down is more likely than a repeat of Caley Thistle's last time in this division. Livingston. Alexander's a great signing, and Gallagher's a solid centre back but they're short on quality otherwise. They have some competent players aside from those two, but no more than competent and they seem to be pinning all their attacking hopes on Danny Mullen. Yes, it's possible that he does progress and take his League One form onto this level, but we've seen plenty of players run riot in League One then fail in the Championship. He could well hit double figures but it's far from a sure thing. If they stay up they should be happy and it would be a big surprise if they manage to be closer to 4th than 9th. Dumbarton still have more signings to go so it's hard to judge, but I do fear for them a bit. It's only how bad Queen of the South - who still have signings to come - look at the moment that makes me think Dumbarton'll avoid the bottom two. People predict Dumbarton to go down every year and every year they survive but this one does look tougher as their squad stands. They're as reliant on Nade as ever and he will undoubtedly be injured for significant spells of the season. Craig Barr will also get injured, Dowie & Hill are 34 & 32 respectively and Grant Gallagher's out long-term. They simply can't afford injuries with the size of squad they operate with and they've got injury prone players in every area. That said, Handling should be a good signing and if they do have everyone fit they've actually got decent options in midfield and attack, but they'll rarely be at full strength. Can't help feeling letting Fleming go was a rash decision. Everything could change for Queen of the South when the loan signings come in but as it stands they look hopeless. Dobbie and Lyle are both a year older (now 34 and 36), they still have no competent cover for those two, their midfield has nothing about it with Joe Thomson gone and their defence is weak. Alan Martin's an improvement on Lee Robinson but that's the only area where they look stronger than last season. Dobbie will score but if he gets injured they're in massive trouble. Maybe Naysmith will pull two or three great loan signings out the bag, maybe he'll help their defenders develop into better players and get consistency out of their midfield, maybe none of their injury prone players will get injured, but nothing he's done in his career so far suggests Gary Naysmith is a good manager and with a worse squad than last season it's hard to see past a relegation battle. The fact that Dumbarton are about to start their sixth consecutive season up after being promoted through the playoffs should give Brechin some encouragement that part-time sides on League One budgets being relegated isn't a foregone conclusion, but to pull that first season off Dumbarton needed the best escape from relegation this division has ever seen having had 5 points in December. Staying up is an absolutely massive task for Brechin and frankly it's not something you're going to pull off with players the calibre of Isaac Layne getting a game. They finished mid-table in League One and their squad isn't any stronger: it's hard to see how they can survive. Really their best hope of avoiding bottom is another side having a season like St. Mirren did last year without the miracle turnaround after January: it's hard to see how they get to 30 points with that squad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lanky_ffc Posted August 1, 2017 Share Posted August 1, 2017 54 minutes ago, Dunning1874 said: What jumps out looking at Falkirk's squad is that their first choice left back is an 18 year old. Highly rated at youth level, but he could easily end up not being as good as his reputation suggests and being a weak link. While they do have more depth throughout the squad than anyone else in the division, with excellent centre forwards and probably the best centre backs in the division, the midfield consists of decent to good players at this level rather than anyone you'd expect to be a stand out. If Sibbald does end up signing a new contract that's certainly a big boost though. A fair summary of our chances and if you look beyond the bravado of some on here, I doubt you'd get many disagreeing with that. We know there are limitations in our side, but the hope is that we've got enough attacking talent to out-weigh those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavyBlueArmy1876 Posted August 1, 2017 Share Posted August 1, 2017 Agree with everything Dunning has said. Gallacher only turned 18 last week as well, confident he will do well though. If Kidd has fallen out with Houston/gone we have no cover for either fullback. The under 20s guys Henderson and Finlayson are entirely untested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dumfries Boy(new acc) Posted August 1, 2017 Share Posted August 1, 2017 Seem to have queens spot on aswell,Someone's been keeping up with the threads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Moonster Posted August 1, 2017 Share Posted August 1, 2017 2 hours ago, Dunning1874 said: Dumbarton still have more signings to go so it's hard to judge, but I do fear for them a bit. It's only how bad Queen of the South - who still have signings to come - look at the moment that makes me think Dumbarton'll avoid the bottom two. People predict Dumbarton to go down every year and every year they survive but this one does look tougher as their squad stands. They're as reliant on Nade as ever and he will undoubtedly be injured for significant spells of the season. Craig Barr will also get injured, Dowie & Hill are 34 & 32 respectively and Grant Gallagher's out long-term. They simply can't afford injuries with the size of squad they operate with and they've got injury prone players in every area. That said, Handling should be a good signing and if they do have everyone fit they've actually got decent options in midfield and attack, but they'll rarely be at full strength. Can't help feeling letting Fleming go was a rash decision. Can't disagree with any of that aside from your last line. As much as I love Garry Fleming and would've been happy to see him play out his career with us, I think Stevie might have called it right to let him go. He hasn't been fit for over a year and wasn't nearly as effective as he has been in previous seasons. Looking at Alloa's highlights so far he doesn't seem to have shifted much of the weight he was carrying and is hardly getting rave reviews from their fans. There are reasons for Garry's condition and I feel for the guy, but on our budget there's no room for sentiment. Our last two (or possibly three) signings will make or break us and if they're more players with a history of injuries I might just have a wee cry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shuggie_Murray7 Posted August 1, 2017 Share Posted August 1, 2017 Falkirk Dundee Utd Dunfermline Morton St Mirren Inverness Livi Dumbarton QotS Brechin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shandon Par Posted August 1, 2017 Share Posted August 1, 2017 2 hours ago, Dunning1874 said: As ever I've tried to leave this as late as possible so squads will be close to completion, as ever I'll probably get it extremely wrong anyway. Dundee United Falkirk St. Mirren Morton Dunfermline Inverness Caledonian Thistle Livingston Dumbarton Queen of the South Brechin Dunfermline aren't much different from last season. Shiels should be a quality signing while McManus should at least be an upgrade on Reilly even if there are question marks about his ability at this level, but M'Voto is an absolute diddy and overall they just look entirely average. Still, they were only four points off the top four last season and avoiding an awful start like last season could make all the difference if all the other contenders end up being as mediocre as we all fear. My expectations for Pars have been creeping up a bit. M'Voto is no more than cover or someone we can bring on if someoneneeds put in the stand. Our points tally improved with each quarter. We still have the solid spine of Murdoch in goal, Morris and Ashcroft at CB and big Wedderburn in front of them but we are looking like a slicker attacking unit. Our new playing surface should help too. It was really causing us bother last season with so many moves breaking down due to bobbles etc. I don't think we needed radical surgery, just a way to maintain the solid core but to add a bit more of a goal threat and the glorified friendlies of the Betfred at least hint at us having a real threat on the counter, plus we've learned how to take penalties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted August 1, 2017 Share Posted August 1, 2017 3 hours ago, Dunning1874 said: As ever I've tried to leave this as late as possible so squads will be close to completion, as ever I'll probably get it extremely wrong anyway. Dundee United Falkirk St. Mirren Morton Dunfermline Inverness Caledonian Thistle Livingston Dumbarton Queen of the South Brechin Morton have considerably more attacking depth than last season with Quitongo back fit while McHugh and Thomson replace the absolute liabilities that were Shankland and Oyenuga, but have gone backwards defensively. We didn't replace Gunning when he left in January and while all our centre backs are solid Championship players, none of them are the commanding presence who can organise the defence which we missed so much in the last quarter of last season. Even more importantly we haven't replaced Jamie Lindsay in midfield, and Duffy seems to have taken a notion to having the defensive space Lindsay and Murdoch covered last season covered by Gary Harkins alone as a deep lying playmaker - even when that idea is surely consigned to the bin, we're still liable to be overrun in midfield without a holding midfielder coming in. I would say we have replaced Lindsay. I'm very impressed with McManus and although it's an early call I think he will be every bit as good as Lindsay when he gets moved out of defence as our injured return Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted August 1, 2017 Share Posted August 1, 2017 We clearly can't claim to have replaced Lindsay with someone who hasn't even played a game yet in that position. Another absolutely insane claim from yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted August 1, 2017 Share Posted August 1, 2017 Dundee United Falkirk Dunfermline Morton St Mirren Inverness CT Queen of the South Livingston Dumbarton Brechin Not much to choose in the middle of this league as usual - I wouldn't be surprised if we ended up finishing 3rd or 7th. Brechin will be doing well to finish on more than 15 points. Falkirk will get to the play-off final and lose in hilarious circumstances yet again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunning1874 Posted August 1, 2017 Share Posted August 1, 2017 1 hour ago, Colkitto said: I would say we have replaced Lindsay. I'm very impressed with McManus and although it's an early call I think he will be every bit as good as Lindsay when he gets moved out of defence as our injured return He's played two games, both at centre back, one a 4-0 defeat to Motherwell where our defence was torn apart and the other a 5-0 cakewalk v Edinburgh City where the defence didn't receive anything like the test they'll get in the league. I'm looking forward to seeing what he can do in his natural position but saying he's as good as Jamie Lindsay when he hasn't even played in holding midfield yet is more than a bit of a leap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheScarf Posted August 1, 2017 Share Posted August 1, 2017 United ICT Falkirk St Mirren Morton Dunfermline QOS Dumbarton Livingston Brechin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted August 1, 2017 Share Posted August 1, 2017 1 hour ago, Dunning1874 said: He's played two games, both at centre back, one a 4-0 defeat to Motherwell where our defence was torn apart and the other a 5-0 cakewalk v Edinburgh City where the defence didn't receive anything like the test they'll get in the league. I'm looking forward to seeing what he can do in his natural position but saying he's as good as Jamie Lindsay when he hasn't even played in holding midfield yet is more than a bit of a leap. Sure, I'll give you that and accept it's a bit of a leap. Still think he can do a good job in midfield from what I've seen so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Moonster Posted August 1, 2017 Share Posted August 1, 2017 1 hour ago, Dunning1874 said: He's played two games, both at centre back, one a 4-0 defeat to Motherwell where our defence was torn apart and the other a 5-0 cakewalk v Edinburgh City where the defence didn't receive anything like the test they'll get in the league. I'm looking forward to seeing what he can do in his natural position but saying he's as good as Jamie Lindsay when he hasn't even played in holding midfield yet is more than a bit of a leap. Is McManus likely to start at centre half against us? I can imagine Nade having a field day there. On the subject of McManus vs Lindsay, I'm not sure Celtic would bin McManus if the same potential as Lindsay was there. Not that I think Lindsay will ever get near the Celtic first team, but they obviously rate him highly enough to keep a hold of him. McManus also has nowhere near the mobility that Lindsay has. Seem different players, albeit they play similar positions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gert.T.Fock Posted August 1, 2017 Share Posted August 1, 2017 St. Mirren Dunfermline Falkirk Inverness Caledonian Thistle Dundee United Livingston Queen of the South Morton Dumbarton Brechin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roman_bairn Posted August 1, 2017 Share Posted August 1, 2017 St. Mirren Dunfermline Falkirk Inverness Caledonian Thistle Dundee United Livingston Queen of the South Morton Dumbarton Brechin Quite entertaining. Especially Dundee U in 5th. [emoji16] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theoriginalhedge Posted August 1, 2017 Share Posted August 1, 2017 5 hours ago, Dumfries Boy(new acc) said: Seem to have queens spot on aswell,Someone's been keeping up with the threads Aye , not bad . ........As a general overview . I have a slightly different take on ours though. 7 hours ago, Dunning1874 said: The fact that Dumbarton are about to start their sixth consecutive season up after being promoted through the playoffs should give Brechin some encouragement that part-time sides on League One budgets being relegated isn't a foregone conclusion, but to pull that first season off Dumbarton needed the best escape from relegation this division has ever seen having had 5 points in December. Staying up is an absolutely massive task for Brechin and frankly it's not something you're going to pull off with players the calibre of Isaac Layne getting a game. They finished mid-table in League One and their squad isn't any stronger: it's hard to see how they can survive. Really their best hope of avoiding bottom is another side having a season like St. Mirren did last year without the miracle turnaround after January: it's hard to see how they get to 30 points with that squad. What seems to be forgotten is that from about November on we went through an horrendous spell of injuries to our key players. Andy Jackson was out for about a month , Euan Smith was having the season of his life and did his cruciate. Paul McLean was in and out of the team and playing with the help of injections . Alan Trouten hardly played due to a recurring groin injury. Our back four / five changed weekly due to knocks and strains picked up to at least one of them per match . Graeme Smith also had a couple of injuries suspensions at key times (down to stupidity on his part most of the time ) . It was only when they all regained fitness ( Euan Smith excepted) towards the end of the season that any consistency kicked in . Our play off displays were outstanding . It also should be noted that by October / early November we were top of the table with the reputation of having the best defensive record in the league. If we can get some of that consistency going this season , I think we could surprise quite a few teams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marshmallo Posted August 1, 2017 Share Posted August 1, 2017 Dunning the best poster on this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roman_bairn Posted August 1, 2017 Share Posted August 1, 2017 What seems to be forgotten is that from about November on we went through an horrendous spell of injuries to our key players. Andy Jackson was out for about a month , Euan Smith was having the season of his life and did his cruciate. Paul McLean was in and out of the team and playing with the help of injections . Alan Trouten hardly played due to a recurring groin injury. Our back four / five changed weekly due to knocks and strains picked up to at least one of them per match . Graeme Smith also had a couple of injuries suspensions at key times (down to stupidity on his part most of the time ) . It was only when they all regained fitness ( Euan Smith excepted) towards the end of the season that any consistency kicked in . Our play off displays were outstanding . It also should be noted that by October / early November we were top of the table with the reputation of having the best defensive record in the league. If we can get some of that consistency going this season , I think we could surprise quite a few teams. Given all the injury problems though, and presuming that your squad is no bigger, are you not operating on the assumption that the team will stay injury free for most of the season? Would be rather lucky if you got away without a spate of injuries this season too surely? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Bauer Posted August 1, 2017 Share Posted August 1, 2017 Dundee Utd Inverness Falkirk Dunfermline St Mirren Morton Livingston QOS Dumbarton Brechin City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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