2017 election post-mortem

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Whilst the SNP still have the majority of seats in Scotland, the main issue for them is that many of their huge majorities have been wiped out as quickly as they got them. I'm sure I read that Dundee East is the safest SNP seat, but even there Hosie has gone from a majority of over 19,000 to just under 7,000. Losing the likes of Angus, a seat the SNP have held since it was created in 1997, is perhaps testament to the fact that there are no safe seats any more. It'll only take a small decrease in SNP vote share the new time to see them lose a lot more seats.

Equally some of the majorities for other parties are thin - I think what the last two elections have shown is that no seat is safe for any party in Scotland.

[wastecoatwilly]

2 hours ago, Baxter Parp said:

There was 2 opened ballot boxes out of 17 in the Glasgow north east seat damaged on transit was the excuse
with only a majority 250 not sure if votes were lost out of the 2 boxes 

[DrewDon]

To understand why this election was such a success for Corbyn whilst not technically 'winning', you have to acknowledge just how bad the electoral map was for Labour when he inherited the leadership from Miliband only a couple of years ago - and this was before the added complications introduced by Brexit. Corbyn has made the next election, whenever that may be, one that Labour could quite possibly emerge from as the largest party. He and Labour still have work to do, sure, but that is an achievement undoubtedly worthy of praise. 

[ayrmad]

22 minutes ago, Gordon EF said:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/06/jeremy-corbyn-unelectable-political-climate

We were told Corbyn was 'unelectable'.

Yes... and then the point was proven when he wasn't elected, moron.

Only proven in the short term.

[git-intae-thum]

2 hours ago, ayrmad said:

Only proven in the short term.

Sorry to shite on friends.......but he ain't electable in a UK context. He was up against the worst tory pm in history and he had a reactionary bounce......and he still didnae make it.

Support independence.

[Gordon EF]

6 hours ago, ayrmad said:

Only proven in the short term.

True. Corbyn being unelectable is absolutely disproven in a hypothetical future - as all things are.

[McSpreader]

5 hours ago, git-intae-thum said:

Sorry to shite on friends.......but he ain't electable in a UK context. He was up against the worst tory pm in history and he had a reactionary bounce......and he still didnae make it.

Support independence.

^^^Desperate stuff.

I fear we will see more of this dross. There is nowhere near enough support for Independence and if we do ever have indyref2  I think there should be a minimum threshold of 60% anyway.

The only way, the quickest way, the safest way  to remove a Tory Gov't is to vote Labour.

[McSpreader]

23 hours ago, Scary Bear said:

 

Curtice seems a sensible chap and his analysis also looks fairly sensible.

I voted SNP at this GE and at the one in 2015, but I voted Lib Dem in 2010. I don't see the SNP as having much relevance at Westminster now that we have Holyrood. The only reason I voted for the SNP in this Westminster election was that every other party was standing on an anti-independence platform. I can't vote for that. That's a show stopper. Even just not mentioning their opposition would have given them a chance. The Lib Dems will never get another vote from me while Willie 'divisive' Rennie is in charge. Corbyn can thank that daft cow Kezia and her anti-Indy stance for a lack of a vote from me.

The SNP have become a bit meh at Holyrood too. I want to see them tackling some tricky areas such as land reform and just having some sort of vision, so you can get a sense of what an independent Scotland should look like. On this matter, they need to revise the White Paper on independence and issue this as a sort of guidance on current thinking on how an independent Scotland would look. Opponents would no doubt have a go at the document, but it would give a chance to argue pros and cons without this happening during a referendum. They also need to show they can get the economy up here going a bit better than it is.
 

 

I agree, When the SNP actually get on with the day job and prove they can improve lives from within Holyrood with the limited powers they have I will be truly impressed.

As you say, show us a vision, show us the potential of handing them the keys to the nation and stop bitching about being hard done by by the Tories, Westminster and Uncle Tom Cobbly  blah de blah... #.GetOnWithTheDayJob

[git-intae-thum]

39 minutes ago, McSpreader said:

^^^Desperate stuff.

I fear we will see more of this dross. There is nowhere near enough support for Independence and if we do ever have indyref2  I think there should be a minimum threshold of 60% anyway.

The only way, the quickest way, the safest way  to remove a Tory Gov't is to vote Labour.

Lol. Hang on a minute......you are a tory

Desperate britnattery indeed.

[Loondave1]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/06/jeremy-corbyn-unelectable-political-climate
We were told Corbyn was 'unelectable'.
Yes... and then the point was proven when he wasn't elected, moron.

Equally then Indy is unwinnable as was proven by it being lost.

[Loondave1]

If...

Think he is better placed to win an election than YES is to win a referendum any time soon.

[ayrmad]

6 hours ago, git-intae-thum said:

Sorry to shite on friends.......but he ain't electable in a UK context. He was up against the worst tory pm in history and he had a reactionary bounce......and he still didnae make it.

Support independence.

IMO supporting independence involves questioning the YES side as well as supporting it, as for Corbyn, he started off miles behind, faced a constant barrage from the MSM, had his "links" to the IRA, support for scrapping Trident and his anti-terrorism stance all thrown at him following 2 terrorist incidents, had no support from most of his own party in rUK, had SLAB inadvertently fighting against him  up here, despite all that he created a monumental shift in UK politics that ain't disappearing any time soon, he is now as electable as any one else IMHO.

[Mr Heliums]

I don't know if time will prove this election as a success for Labour. As others have said, it was simply a disaster for May – which meant that Labour's vote rose. Many voted to give May a bloody nose and still more who voted Labour wouldn't be able to name many Labour policies, but they'd have a fair idea about Dementia Tax, foxhunting etc. Most surely never considered he'd actually become PM and that surely convinced some to vote for him, safer (they thought) in the knowledge that their vote wouldn't actually count.

Labour was also helped by the absence of UKIP and having Tim Farron as Lib Dem leader. There was a great chance for someone to to steal the Tory votes, but as we effectively reverted to a two-party system there was only one place disenchanted votes could go.

In the longer term, it put the Labour Party in an awkward situation politically. They're now wedded to a left-wing agenda which many of his own party disassociated themselves from. And in five years' time, while the Corbyn surge may have to be taken seriously, it will also come under more balanced scrutiny (I don't mean from the shrill Daily Mail).

The election was good for Corbyn, but in the long-term I'm not sure it makes a Labour Government any more likely.

[ayrmad]

Just now, Loondave1 said:

Think he is better placed to win an election than YES is to win a referendum any time soon.

I would agree in the short term but there's always another mind shift just around the corner.

[Loondave1]

I would agree in the short term but there's always another mind shift just around the corner.

True to an extent but Corbyn acheived something truly significant last Thursday and overturned some of the "rules" about what was required to even be in contention as the governing party.Momentum activists played a huge part with more Labour boots out on the street than people imagined and young people much more savvy about the potential of the internet and how to maximise its potential.The potential too build progressive alliances could be huge and the Tories now can only ally with DUP type nutjobs and little more.I was thinking yesterday how i have seen the "permanent" demise of the Labour Party twice now and the Tories at least once with the Lib Dems becoming a serious contender as one of the main two.Turns out it was all bollocks yet again.

[ICTChris]

In the demographic analysis I've seen so far, the big area that the Tories lost out in was the 30-45 age group.  According to YouGov analysis, Labour and the Tories were running neck and neck among that demographic in 2010, Labour had a lead in 2015 but Labour are now well in front.  That's a huge problem for the Tories and anyone in that party who thinks that you can write off Corbyn and Labour as being a load of students voting for free stuff needs to think about what they are saying.  People in their 30s and 40s are settling into careers, family life, home-ownership (or aspiring to that).  For Labour to be leading so convincingly among this group is a big failure for the Conservatives.  

[thisal]

What  would happen if Labour won a couple of by-elections and were able to get a majority? Would they be able to form a government or would they have to call an election? 

[Loondave1]

In the demographic analysis I've seen so far, the big area that the Tories lost out in was the 30-45 age group.  According to YouGov analysis, Labour and the Tories were running neck and neck among that demographic in 2010, Labour had a lead in 2015 but Labour are now well in front.  That's a huge problem for the Tories and anyone in that party who thinks that you can write off Corbyn and Labour as being a load of students voting for free stuff needs to think about what they are saying.  People in their 30s and 40s are settling into careers, family life, home-ownership (or aspiring to that).  For Labour to be leading so convincingly among this group is a big failure for the Conservatives.  

But again caution required.The lazy old people will die and YES will win as a fact is similar.When i first voted Labour in 83 everyone young hated Thatchers Tories and theoretically 35 years later they should be a busted flush with all their voters long dead.Problem is as a theory its proven to be bollocks.

[Whitburn Vale]

2 hours ago, McSpreader said:

I agree, When the SNP actually get on with the day job and prove they can improve lives from within Holyrood with the limited powers they have I will be truly impressed.

As you say, show us a vision, show us the potential of handing them the keys to the nation and stop bitching about being hard done by by the Tories, Westminster and Uncle Tom Cobbly  blah de blah... #.GetOnWithTheDayJob

In an independent Scotland any scottish party could be in charge of Scotland not just the SNP, the worlds your oyster,you can vote for whoever takes yer fancy.

That point is one that seems to consistently gets missed time and again. We vote and get the party Scotland voted for to govern Scotland.

[Loondave1]

In an independent Scotland any scottish party could be in charge of Scotland not just the SNP, the worlds your oyster,you can vote for whoever takes yer fancy.
That point is one that seems to consistently gets missed time and again. We vote and get the party Scotland voted for to govern Scotland.

13 Scottish constituencies are getting the Govt they voted for ironically.