2017 election post-mortem

[The Chlamydia Kid]

The Coatbridge stuff from that wings over Scotland was utter nonsense as well the SNP lost 11k votes!?! Yet he put that down to Catholics voting labour to stop the Tories- when the Tory vote went up 4000 and the labour vote only went up 2000?

 

Furthermore , and again I know anecdotal evidence means very little- I know a lot of people in Coatbridge and every super catholic/republican I know was voting SNP.

 

This clown is no different from the ''mainstream media" he is just as ill informed. When I was younger I always used to believe what I read in papers was generally true. However as I grew older and was involved first hand in events which made media reports then I could see that the reports were way off.

 

If he is so far off the mark with Coatbridge and Ayr then how can you believe any of the rest of the dross that comes out his mouth?

[Glenconner]

10 minutes ago, Ad Lib said:

It isn't. You can't just extrapolate like that. Otherwise you would have to say that the SNP losing a by-election would be like losing eleven by-elections in England. That isn't a useful comparison.

The SNP did win a narrow majority of Scottish seats. Just six seats would have to switch for that majority to be lost. That is narrow. A ten seat majority in a Parliament of 100 MPs is not "larger" than a 100 seat majority in a Parliament of, say, 1000 MPs. Narrowness of majorities concerns sufficiency and how vulnerable they are to being overturned.

The SNP now holds more than 10 seats by around or less than 1000 votes. That majority is a vulnerable one.

The SNP would then need to get its vote out. 500,000 missing votes from two years ago?

[Glenconner]

If you've been a SLAB voter all along what are you now thinking. Yippee we done well? or no bad we got a few seats (single numbers) back in Scotland?. Ffs, Coatbridge and Glasgow North East were the safest of the safest seats in the UK. If your an honest SLAB voter you'd say we didn't do that well either in Scotland or the UK. 

[Fide]

12 hours ago, The Chlamydia Kid said:

 

This clown is no different from the ''mainstream media" he is just as ill informed. When I was younger I always used to believe what I read in papers was generally true. However as I grew older and was involved first hand in events which made media reports then I could see that the reports were way off.

 

To be fair, orange walks are the pastime of absolute and utter wankers.

[Scary Bear]

(apologies if posted/pasted elsewhere)
 
John Curtis gives his view:
 
UK’s leading poll expert lays out four possible interpretations of why the SNP lost seats
WHAT’S THE REAL STORY behind the SNP’s shock loss of 21 seats in the 8 June General Election?
Though the SNP still won the election in Scotland, with 35 of 59 seats, the party was challenged by the success of Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party in toppling the Tory majority government.
CommonSpace spoke to leading poll expert Professor John Curtice about the pressures on the SNP vote, and how its relative electoral decline can be explained.
From the (very much incomplete) polling data available, Curtice outlined for possible scenarios for that would explain the blow to SNP support, adding it is “impossible at this stage to tell you which one of these is right and which one is wrong, but they are all perfectly possible candidates”.
CommonSpace presents Curtice’s four interpretations of the SNP’s travails in the 2017 General Election.
 
 
1. Independence supporters were less enthusiastic about the party than 2015
Curtice said: “Some of those who supported independence are not wild on the idea of a second independence vote soon. Either because they don’t think they’d win it and are therefore not keen on it, or because they thought it would be once in a generation and they don’t want to push it again soon.”

This claim suggests that it was calling for a fresh independence vote could have been too early for some previous SNP supporters, and that they opted for others parties that claimed to support other political priorities.
 
 
2. Criticism of devolved policy was enough to put voters off
Curtice said: “The Scottish Government’s domestic record are not regarded as particularly favourable in certain areas, particularly in respect to education, means that some pro-Yes voters have been put off.”

The SNP has been in power in Holyrood since 2007 – first as a minority government, then as a majority government, and now again as a minority government. This has included responsibility for areas including health, education, policing, housing, and some economic and tax powers. Criticism from the left and the right, called on voters to leave the party based on its domestic record.
 
 
3. The SNP was again sidelined by the Westminster election system 
Curtice said: “Apart from 2015, its always been difficult for the SNP to do well in Westminster elections. Unfortunately no one ever did a poll in which they had both the Holyrood and Westminster voting intentions. So we don’t know to what extent the Westminster voting intention was below what might have been the Holyrood voting intention at the time, but it’s possible we are back to a situation where people are saying – what’s the point of voting for the SNP [in a Westminster election].”

Prior to 2015, the SNP had faired relatively poorly in Westminster elections. The party’s victories in 2007 and 2011 were not replicated in the prior Westminster elections of 2005 and 2010, when the Labour Party swept Scotland. Arguably, it is difficult for the SNP to dominate the agenda where it cannot form the leading government. With the two-largest UK parties in the ascendency, the SNP faced an added challenge in a UK election.
 
 
4. The Corbyn surge squeezed the SNP from the left
Curtice said: “Then the final factor is the impact of the Corbyn surge and the SNP undoubtedly lost out as a result of some of that.”

Labour made a previously unexpected come back in Scotland – winning seats in Rutherglen and Glasgow. As Jeremy Corbyn’s campaign picked up in England, there was also a polling increase for Labour in Scotland – which may have been a crucial factor in reducing SNP support among left-wing, anti-establishment voters that decided to back Corbyn.
 
 

Curtice seems a sensible chap and his analysis also looks fairly sensible.

I voted SNP at this GE and at the one in 2015, but I voted Lib Dem in 2010. I don't see the SNP as having much relevance at Westminster now that we have Holyrood. The only reason I voted for the SNP in this Westminster election was that every other party was standing on an anti-independence platform. I can't vote for that. That's a show stopper. Even just not mentioning their opposition would have given them a chance. The Lib Dems will never get another vote from me while Willie 'divisive' Rennie is in charge. Corbyn can thank that daft cow Kezia and her anti-Indy stance for a lack of a vote from me.

The SNP have become a bit meh at Holyrood too. I want to see them tackling some tricky areas such as land reform and just having some sort of vision, so you can get a sense of what an independent Scotland should look like. On this matter, they need to revise the White Paper on independence and issue this as a sort of guidance on current thinking on how an independent Scotland would look. Opponents would no doubt have a go at the document, but it would give a chance to argue pros and cons without this happening during a referendum. They also need to show they can get the economy up here going a bit better than it is.

[Scary Bear]

Also.

Banging on about the EU and Brexit doesn't seem to be a vote winner. Accept that we're out. If you become independent you can ask the people if they want to be part of the EU. Until then, stop going on about it.

While it must stick in your craw that this was one of the main sticks that Better Together beat you with in 2014, just let it go.

[Whitburn Vale]

1 hour ago, Scary Bear said:

 

Curtice seems a sensible chap and his analysis also looks fairly sensible.

I voted SNP at this GE and at the one in 2015, but I voted Lib Dem in 2010. I don't see the SNP as having much relevance at Westminster now that we have Holyrood. The only reason I voted for the SNP in this Westminster election was that every other party was standing on an anti-independence platform. I can't vote for that. That's a show stopper. Even just not mentioning their opposition would have given them a chance. The Lib Dems will never get another vote from me while Willie 'divisive' Rennie is in charge. Corbyn can thank that daft cow Kezia and her anti-Indy stance for a lack of a vote from me.

The SNP have become a bit meh at Holyrood too. I want to see them tackling some tricky areas such as land reform and just having some sort of vision, so you can get a sense of what an independent Scotland should look like. On this matter, they need to revise the White Paper on independence and issue this as a sort of guidance on current thinking on how an independent Scotland would look. Opponents would no doubt have a go at the document, but it would give a chance to argue pros and cons without this happening during a referendum. They also need to show they can get the economy up here going a bit better than it is.
 

 

Agree with all scary bear is saying in his last 2 posts,also have to give credit to the Scottish Greens for pushing the SNP into a more radical position at Holyrood. The SNP now needs to up its game here in Scotland,start being more radical with the powers we DO have,put indyref 2 on the backburner for now,get the best deal it possibly can for Scotland as regards the brexit question.

They were always gonna lose seats but i.m.o. 40 was probably acceptable but they slipped below that and in a strange way it's probably a good thing in the long run,as it has given them a kick up the backside and woken them from their slumber.

As for Europe,accept we are out for now,try to get the best deal we can from the brexit mess and if we gain indy in the future that is a question that can be put to the Scottish people if we want to re-join the EU.

[Kejan]

1 hour ago, Scary Bear said:

Also.

Banging on about the EU and Brexit doesn't seem to be a vote winner. Accept that we're out. If you become independent you can ask the people if they want to be part of the EU. Until then, stop going on about it.

While it must stick in your craw that this was one of the main sticks that Better Together beat you with in 2014, just let it go.

Yeah, that looks very much the case. Also in England/Wales with the Lib Dems basically running an EU campaign and their vote pretty much stayed static - gained four seats mostly thanks to Scotland.  The SNP obviously tried to win over NO/but Yes to EU liberal voters ; but it hasn't worked. The JK Rowlings - whilst they don't like being out of the EU, they will never vote for the SNP. I can see why and by doing this they alienating their tartan Teuchter fermer/fishermen.

The SNP also seem to have polled much lower than most polls had them. I think SurveyMonkey had them on 39% and that was written off as an outlier. Most had them from 44-41% yet polled 37% on the day. That is concerning for any future election.

There also does not look like any safe SNP seats anymore. Those big Glasgow majorities have been slashed and then there's NE Fife, Perth and two Glasgow seats that are a bawhair away from going to the parties in second place. 

TBH, losing the likes of Paul Monaghan and Tasmin Sheikh are not big loss, yet also Salmond and Robertson are gone, which is terrible. I was convinced that Wishart might go but thought Robertson would've held on, and even won by the margin Ross ended up winning by. 

The SNP still won and there's no doubting that, but the momentum is slipping. The next few months are vital and hopefully with the likes of Salmond and Robertson now not in parliament they can be used by the party to re-asses lots of things.

I'd get rid of McKay as campaign director too. Didn't he run the 2012 council election as well? Not that its all his fault and if the electorate are bored or tired of you ; but the campaign was negative and boring. The PPB was a shocker too. 

I'm hoping the Tory/DUP govt lasts a few years as it will no doubt end up in utter disaster and eating from within. Although if Corbyn gets stronger then you'd fear for the central belt seats if there is another election.

 

 

[Loondave1]

Yeah, that looks very much the case. Also in England/Wales with the Lib Dems basically running an EU campaign and their vote pretty much stayed static - gained four seats mostly thanks to Scotland.  The SNP obviously tried to win over NO/but Yes to EU liberal voters ; but it hasn't worked. The JK Rowlings - whilst they don't like being out of the EU, they will never vote for the SNP. I can see why and by doing this they alienating their tartan Teuchter fermer/fishermen.
The SNP also seem to have polled much lower than most polls had them. I think SurveyMonkey had them on 39% and that was written off as an outlier. Most had them from 44-41% yet polled 37% on the day. That is concerning for any future election.
There also does not look like any safe SNP seats anymore. Those big Glasgow majorities have been slashed and then there's NE Fife, Perth and two Glasgow seats that are a bawhair away from going to the parties in second place. 
TBH, losing the likes of Paul Monaghan and Tasmin Sheikh are not big loss, yet also Salmond and Robertson are gone, which is terrible. I was convinced that Wishart might go but thought Robertson would've held on, and even won by the margin Ross ended up winning by. 
The SNP still won and there's no doubting that, but the momentum is slipping. The next few months are vital and hopefully with the likes of Salmond and Robertson now not in parliament they can be used by the party to re-asses lots of things.
I'd get rid of McKay as campaign director too. Didn't he run the 2012 council election as well? Not that its all his fault and if the electorate are bored or tired of you ; but the campaign was negative and boring. The PPB was a shocker too. 
I'm hoping the Tory/DUP govt lasts a few years as it will no doubt end up in utter disaster and eating from within. Although if Corbyn gets stronger then you'd fear for the central belt seats if there is another election.
 
 

If Corbyn looks like he could potentially form a genuine left of centre UK Govt he will siphon off more SNP support.The faux "left wing" flannel the SNP come out with while having the grudging support of The SUN and bankrolling by the likes of Bryan Soutar looks piss poor in comparison.

[Sooky]

Whilst the SNP still have the majority of seats in Scotland, the main issue for them is that many of their huge majorities have been wiped out as quickly as they got them. I'm sure I read that Dundee East is the safest SNP seat, but even there Hosie has gone from a majority of over 19,000 to just under 7,000. Losing the likes of Angus, a seat the SNP have held since it was created in 1997, is perhaps testament to the fact that there are no safe seats any more. It'll only take a small decrease in SNP vote share the new time to see them lose a lot more seats.

[ayrmad]

2 minutes ago, Sooky said:

Whilst the SNP still have the majority of seats in Scotland, the main issue for them is that many of their huge majorities have been wiped out as quickly as they got them. I'm sure I read that Dundee East is the safest SNP seat, but even there Hosie has gone from a majority of over 19,000 to just under 7,000. Losing the likes of Angus, a seat the SNP have held since it was created in 1997, is perhaps testament to the fact that there are no safe seats any more. It'll only take a small decrease in SNP vote share the new time to see them lose a lot more seats.

Since indyref and brexit there's no such thing as a safe seat anywhere in the UK IMHO, people are now becoming accustomed to voting for people/parties that were unimaginable a decade ago, interesting times ahead.

[Sooky]

Since indyref and brexit there's no such thing as a safe seat anywhere in the UK IMHO, people are now becoming accustomed to voting for people/parties that were unimaginable a decade ago, interesting times ahead.

Something in that also, particularly in all the Scottish seats.

[Shades75]

2 hours ago, Sooky said:

 

Something in that also, particularly in all the Scottish seats.

 

Yeh, like Canterbury in the highlands and Kensington down in the borders.

[ayrmad]

20 minutes ago, Shades75 said:

Yeh, like Canterbury in the highlands and Kensington down in the borders.

Nah, I'd give him a wee bit of room for now as rUK are 2 years behind us, another year or 2 and the old swingometer will be redundant in it's present form.

I remember being at a meeting in Ayr Town Hall just after indyref and Douglas Campbell was showing how he thought the SNP could get a majority of Westminster seats, while it was very plausible your head still had a wee voice saying it was just fanciful nonsense to keep us engaged, we all know how that went, we've went from 30 seats being wishful thinking 3 years ago to 35 seats being an utter disaster today, exciting times indeed.

[DublinMagyar]

 

[DublinMagyar]

[Baxter Parp]

[Gordon EF]

On 6/13/2017 at 15:53, Ad Lib said:

It isn't. You can't just extrapolate like that. Otherwise you would have to say that the SNP losing a by-election would be like losing eleven by-elections in England. That isn't a useful comparison.

The SNP did win a narrow majority of Scottish seats. Just six seats would have to switch for that majority to be lost. That is narrow. A ten seat majority in a Parliament of 100 MPs is not "larger" than a 100 seat majority in a Parliament of, say, 1000 MPs. Narrowness of majorities concerns sufficiency and how vulnerable they are to being overturned.

The SNP now holds more than 10 seats by around or less than 1000 votes. That majority is a vulnerable one.

It is a useful and valid comparison of electoral performance, just not of 'stability of majority'.

[Gordon EF]

10 hours ago, Loondave1 said:

If Corbyn looks like he could potentially form a genuine left of centre UK Govt he will siphon off more SNP support.The faux "left wing" flannel the SNP come out with while having the grudging support of The SUN and bankrolling by the likes of Bryan Soutar looks piss poor in comparison.

If...

[Gordon EF]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/06/jeremy-corbyn-unelectable-political-climate

We were told Corbyn was 'unelectable'.

Yes... and then the point was proven when he wasn't elected, moron.