2017 election post-mortem

[DublinMagyar]

Or maybe politicians believe any old sheck the advisors spin them.

Edited

[NotThePars]

Classic "any fat burd" could have have stood for SNP in 2015 and won. Between her and the boyfriend they managed to piss off half the local membership.
Corbyn won the seat not the "any local Sellik fan will do" SLAB candidate in seat where half the population are on benefits.

Aye I've heard enough about her boyfriend to be weary at best. Sounds very unpleasant.

[Glenconner]

Just now, NotThePars said:

 

Aye I've heard enough about her boyfriend to be weary at best. Sounds very unpleasant.

 

Not said on here, the unionists don't seem to be up to speed on this, but two female SNP MPs were shown the door in Glasgow if you add in sticky fingers in Glasgow East.

[NotThePars]

Not said on here, the unionists don't seem to be up to speed on this, but two female SNP MPs were shown the door in Glasgow if you add in sticky fingers in Glasgow East.

Natalie McGarry was innocent! #FreeNatalieMcGarry

[Glenconner]

1 minute ago, NotThePars said:

 

 

Natalie McGarry was innocent! #FreeNatalieMcGarry

 

 

Fair minded come and go the first time but the second time when the branch said "haud oan".........

Plus the Tory boyfriend/husband rounded it off.

[NotThePars]

Fair minded come and go the first time but the second time when the branch said "haud oan".........
Plus the Tory boyfriend/husband rounded it off.

I'm reasonably certain she's the only MP ever to have had a private Twitter account for over half her term.

[Glenconner]

3 minutes ago, NotThePars said:

 

I'm reasonably certain she's the only MP ever to have had a private Twitter account for over half her term.

 

I look at her in Glasgow East and then think of someday like Lesley Riddoch.

Effin night and day.

[Donathan]

McGarry is a wid though tbf

[Bring Your Own Socks]

John Curtice confirmed this morning that nine of the Tory seats were tactical. As much as I loathe what the Tories represent they know how to win. Their tactics in 2015 were spot on, allowing the SNP to smash the Labour vote in Scotland whilst they put all their energy into SW England. This time, they gave Scotland a bit more attention and it's not happenchance that all the SNP big guns who were getting noticed for squaring up to the Tories were either deposed or within a whisker. Precise and sustained targetting.

That said, the SNP were poor. I think they had put a lot into the council elections and didn't have enough in the tank for this one. I hope they learn and are better prepared next time. There might have benn a small number of ex-Labour voters bewitched by Corbyn's wizardry (Kez still trying to claim credit) but it seems evident, as Professor Curtice implied, that in the rural north and south tactical voting switched heavily from SNP to Tory.

Many things were weird this time and all because of Brexit, one way or another. If there wasn't the urgency to be ready for Brexit the DUp wouldn't have got a phone call. If there is another election this year it should be evident how much of an arse the Tories are making of it and "the people" will shift again.

As a footnote, repugnant as it might seem to most in the SNP ranks, will they ever have a better hold over the Tories than right now if they were prepared to enter into an agreement? 35 seats would be very attractive to May, more so than the DUP. If Nicola wants a seat at the big table this is a great opportunity. Unfortunately her 'Wee Glesga Wummin' routine has boxed her in. Might be fun for her fanatics but if she wants to win at politics she'll do better leaving doors open now and again. Anything's posiible in this mad world.

[Sooky]

As much as I loathe what the Tories represent they know how to win.

Ha.

[Monkey Tennis]

28 minutes ago, Bring Your Own Socks said:

John Curtice confirmed this morning that nine of the Tory seats were tactical. As much as I loathe what the Tories represent they know how to win. Their tactics in 2015 were spot on, allowing the SNP to smash the Labour vote in Scotland whilst they put all their energy into SW England. This time, they gave Scotland a bit more attention and it's not happenchance that all the SNP big guns who were getting noticed for squaring up to the Tories were either deposed or within a whisker. Precise and sustained targetting.

That said, the SNP were poor. I think they had put a lot into the council elections and didn't have enough in the tank for this one. I hope they learn and are better prepared next time. There might have benn a small number of ex-Labour voters bewitched by Corbyn's wizardry (Kez still trying to claim credit) but it seems evident, as Professor Curtice implied, that in the rural north and south tactical voting switched heavily from SNP to Tory.

Many things were weird this time and all because of Brexit, one way or another. If there wasn't the urgency to be ready for Brexit the DUp wouldn't have got a phone call. If there is another election this year it should be evident how much of an arse the Tories are making of it and "the people" will shift again.

As a footnote, repugnant as it might seem to most in the SNP ranks, will they ever have a better hold over the Tories than right now if they were prepared to enter into an agreement? 35 seats would be very attractive to May, more so than the DUP. If Nicola wants a seat at the big table this is a great opportunity. Unfortunately her 'Wee Glesga Wummin' routine has boxed her in. Might be fun for her fanatics but if she wants to win at politics she'll do better leaving doors open now and again. Anything's posiible in this mad world.

A good post, but the last paragraph is, as you know, fanciful. 

The best way for the SNP to betray everyone and as a result cement their decline would be to do exactly as you suggest, regardless of any Sturgeon persona.

[DrewDon]

SNP: Weak campaign. They were lacking a compelling and a consistent narrative. Struggled with framing issues as well as they had done in 2015, the 2014 referendum and the 2011 Holyrood election. Messaging was a bit all over the place, too: Sturgeon and Wishart, amongst others, publicly criticising/mocking Corbyn's leadership of the Labour Party weeks before the vote and then, when presumably picking up on the doorstep that some 2015 voters were tempted by Corbyn's offer, this seemingly changing at the last minute to something resembling 'Vote SNP for Corbyn'. In the areas where they did perform poorly, such as the north-east, the Tories appear to have successively laid the blame for job losses and just about everything else at the door of the SNP. They, in my opinion, have not been strong or quick enough in their rebuttal - and they paid the price here. The ‘second referendum’ was certainly an issue, although I'm sure Sturgeon would have been more reticent to play it up previously had she known a snap election was on the horizon when she did. It isn't all bad for the SNP, of course - they still have a majority of Scottish seats, they are strong in west and central Scotland, and are in a much better position at Westminster than the vast majority of people would have believed remotely possible only a handful of years ago.

Labour: I, and many others, underestimated and perhaps even misunderstood Corbyn's appeal. His campaign was energetic, loud and consistent. They were gaining seats in England that I thought impossible for virtually any post-Blair Labour leader to win. Corbyn energised the youth vote, and it does appear to have turned out in big numbers - he gave them a compelling and hopeful offer. Their online campaigning proved particularly fruitful amongst young voters, according to a former Corbyn staffer. This appears to have boosted Labour in Scotland, even if their overall vote share stayed relatively stable. In some Scottish constituencies, they will have benefited from Unionists becoming smarter at tactical voting. In England (and Wales?), they married together the Corbyn enthusiasts with the Corbynsceptics who either disliked May more than they did Corbyn, or were willing to hold their nose and vote for Labour on the assumption that they weren't likely to win power anyway. Also, for all their various faults and flaws, they had a united team at the top of the UK party who appeared to be singing off the same hymn sheet 99% of the time, which I'm sure helped clarify their message and gave the operation a much-needed look and feel of credibility.

Tories: As has been said previously, their message was straightforward and simple in Scotland. They pitched themselves as the most vocal anti-referendum/independence party, and it worked. Some of Davidson’s main lines about “getting on with the day job” obviously hit home. They also positioned themselves to benefit from tactical voting, as well as attracting a small number of SNP voters who are either opposed or uncertain on a second referendum and Scottish independence. Also, for some more ardent Leave voters in Scotland, they might have felt like they had little other option but to vote for the Tories. England is a completely different story, however. May endured a shocking campaign. Their offer was narrow and they completely lost control of the debate. "Strong and Stable" doesn't really work when your candidate for Prime Minister is coming across as, well, the very opposite of that.

Lib Dems: 

[NotThePars]

49 minutes ago, DrewDon said:

SNP: Weak campaign. They were lacking a compelling and a consistent narrative. Struggled with framing issues as well as they had done in 2015, the 2014 referendum and the 2011 Holyrood election. Messaging was a bit all over the place, too: Sturgeon and Wishart, amongst others, publicly criticising/mocking Corbyn's leadership of the Labour Party weeks before the vote and then, when presumably picking up on the doorstep that some 2015 voters were tempted by Corbyn's offer, this seemingly changing at the last minute to something resembling 'Vote SNP for Corbyn'. In the areas where they did perform poorly, such as the north-east, the Tories appear to have successively laid the blame for job losses and just about everything else at the door of the SNP. They, in my opinion, have not been strong or quick enough in their rebuttal - and they paid the price here. The ‘second referendum’ was certainly an issue, although I'm sure Sturgeon would have been more reticent to play it up previously had she known a snap election was on the horizon when she did. It isn't all bad for the SNP, of course - they still have a majority of Scottish seats, they are strong in west and central Scotland, and are in a much better position at Westminster than the vast majority of people would have believed remotely possible only a handful of years ago.

Labour: I, and many others, underestimated and perhaps even misunderstood Corbyn's appeal. His campaign was energetic, loud and consistent. They were gaining seats in England that I thought impossible for virtually any post-Blair Labour leader to win. Corbyn energised the youth vote, and it does appear to have turned out in big numbers - he gave them a compelling and hopeful offer. Their online campaigning proved particularly fruitful amongst young voters, according to a former Corbyn staffer. This appears to have boosted Labour in Scotland, even if their overall vote share stayed relatively stable. In some Scottish constituencies, they will have benefited from Unionists becoming smarter at tactical voting. In England (and Wales?), they married together the Corbyn enthusiasts with the Corbynsceptics who either disliked May more than they did Corbyn, or were willing to hold their nose and vote for Labour on the assumption that they weren't likely to win power anyway. Also, for all their various faults and flaws, they had a united team at the top of the UK party who appeared to be singing off the same hymn sheet 99% of the time, which I'm sure helped clarify their message and gave the operation a much-needed look and feel of credibility.

Tories: As has been said previously, their message was straightforward and simple in Scotland. They pitched themselves as the most vocal anti-referendum/independence party, and it worked. Some of Davidson’s main lines about “getting on with the day job” obviously hit home. They also positioned themselves to benefit from tactical voting, as well as attracting a small number of SNP voters who are either opposed or uncertain on a second referendum and Scottish independence. Also, for some more ardent Leave voters in Scotland, they might have felt like they had little other option but to vote for the Tories. England is a completely different story, however. May endured a shocking campaign. Their offer was narrow and they completely lost control of the debate. "Strong and Stable" doesn't really work when your candidate for Prime Minister is coming across as, well, the very opposite of that.

Lib Dems: 

 

That reaction to the Lib Dems.  Did they win seats? Lose seats? Apart from Clegg does anyone give a shit? 

[Sooky]

 
That reaction to the Lib Dems.  Did they win seats? Lose seats? Apart from Clegg does anyone give a shit? 

They gained 3 seats yet, quite incredibly, their vote share went down and they lost more deposits this time around than their 2015 disaster. Targeting specific seats evidently helped win them a few more, but they are going backwards in seats that they held until 2015.

[DrewDon]

As a follow-up to my post, questions should perhaps be asked regarding the impact of some of the SNP's local campaigns. I don't know whether or to what extent it was complacency, but some of the constituencies that they lost should surely have been closer than they were - and, ultimately, finishing with 35 seats was never going to be considered a 'good' result in the circumstances. They undoubtedly fell victim, amongst other things, to the referendum talk and Unionist tactical voters becoming smarter, but I think it is legitimate to ask questions of campaigns locally as well as nationally when trying to work out what could have gone better. 

I'm not a member or activist, mind, so I'm perhaps not best placed to comment. 

[Glenconner]

9 minutes ago, DrewDon said:

As a follow-up to my post, questions should perhaps be asked regarding the impact of some of the SNP's local campaigns. I don't know whether or to what extent it was complacency, but some of the constituencies that they lost should surely have been closer than they were - and, ultimately, finishing with 35 seats was never going to be considered a 'good' result in the circumstances. They undoubtedly fell victim, amongst other things, to the referendum talk and Unionist tactical voters becoming smarter, but I think it is legitimate to ask questions of campaigns locally as well as nationally when trying to work out what could have gone better. 

I'm not a member or activist, mind, so I'm perhaps not best placed to comment. 

You target where you thinks best. Problem with that is you end up meeting people who get one postal leaflet from the SNP and eff all off SLAB, Tory or the diddies. And people think, eff it, i'll give voting a miss this time. Half of Glasgow got one solitary leaflet compared to maybe 20 odd leaflets from various parties 2 years ago. Should the Tories go for it in a few months time the punters might not even get that one leaflet if money is tight. Btw, in 2015 I know folks who received eff all communication from the SNP because they were so far in front. I also didn't see that many window posters around my area, maybe a couple out of hundreds of houses.

[sparky88]

9 hours ago, Savage Henry said:

Labour didn't take many SNP votes at all - the Labour vote in Scotland remained remarkably stable - what do they know of Labour that only Labour know?   Most of the disaffected SNP vote (that's the only way I can express it) went directly to the Conservatives.  Which, you would think, would be a transient thing, but I'm still having a hard time explaining why it happened in the first place.  Tactical voting and single issue politics doesn't even come close to explaining that.  SNP/Leave in the North East perhaps a little more.  The Cult of Personality may be at its peak, with Ruth Davidson being much more appealing to swing voters than the SNP top brass believed.

 

The SNP have had plenty of Tory friendly policies in the recent past, particularly under Salmond. The lowering of corporation tax being a good example. Sturgeon has moved the party to the left since, resulting in pretty left wing manifestos in 2015 and 2017.

The constitution is far less important to the SNP vote than people realise imo. 

In addition, I said before the election that Brexit would f**k over the SNP in the north east, it's why Roberson and white ford signed pledges aimed at ending the Common Fisheries Policy. 

[Fide]

This is some pretty decent insight from everyone's favourite cuddly political commentator

https://wingsoverscotland.com/the-great-stalemate/

The great stalemate

Posted on June 11, 2017 by Rev. Stuart Campbell

We’ve written in the past about how rarely the vote in Scotland has any meaningful impact on the formation of the UK government, but the (first?) election of 2017 was one of those rare occasions. Indeed, it could be argued that Scotland is mainly responsible for the complete mess that UK politics now finds itself in.

Had the seven seats won by Labour in Scotland gone to the Tories, Theresa May would have a working majority today (324 seats – taking out the Speaker and Sinn Fein MPs who don’t participate, the true threshold of majority is 322).

Conversely, had the 13 seats won by the Tories in Scotland gone to Labour OR (more plausibly) stayed with the SNP, Jeremy Corbyn would have been able to assemble a progressive alliance and form a government.

(Labour+SNP+Lib Dem would have added up to the required 322, with a cushion of five extra seats available from Plaid Cymru and the Greens.)

It seems at the first glance, then, that a successful “stop the SNP” tactical voting campaign in Scotland bizarrely ensured that NEITHER the Tories nor Labour could form a stable UK government. (The Tories’ slapstick courting of the DUP looks set to produce the weakest administration since 1974. We see no way that another election this year can be avoided.)

But it didn’t happen quite as straightforwardly as that.

 

We took a look at the results in most of the Scottish seats that changed hands. (We didn’t bother with the three Borders seats or Orkney & Shetland because they were always foregone conclusions.) We’ve rounded all the numbers off to the nearest 1000 because we’re interested in the broad patterns here.

———————————————————————————————-

ANGUS

SNP vote: down 9000
Tory vote: up 5000
Labour vote: up 1000
Lib Dem vote: static

Not every part of the country needed to engage in tactical voting for the SNP to lose. This seems to be a straight and genuine SNP-Tory swing, probably Brexit-based. The North-East, with its large fishing communities, was Scotland’s most anti-EU region and hasn’t taken well to the SNP’s desire to stay in via a second indyref.

AYR, CARRICK AND CUMNOCK

SNP vote: down 10,000
Tory vote: up 8000
Labour vote: down 3000
Lib Dem vote: static

Ayrshire, just across the sea from Northern Ireland, was always likely to be fertile ground for the Tories’ move towards a hardcore Protestant alignment, and so it proved in this seat. (The SNP lost a lot of ground elsewhere in the area but still held on – their Inverclyde majority, for example, dropped from 11,000 to under 400 despite Labour in 2nd place only gaining about 1000 votes.)

Labour voters shifted in numbers to the Ruth Davidson No Surrender And Unionist Party, and without the help of the 3000 who switched from Labour here – who actually came 2nd in 2015 – the Tories would still have fallen narrowly short of taking the seat despite the SNP collapse.

BANFF & BUCHAN

SNP vote: down 11,000
Tory vote: up 7000
Labour vote: up 1000
Lib Dem vote: down 1000

Another North-East Brexit swing.

CAITHNESS, SUTHERLAND & EASTER ROSS

SNP vote: down 7000
Tory vote: up 5000
Labour vote: up 1000
Lib Dem vote: down 1000

Tactical voting DOESN’T seem to have been a factor here. The Lib Dems took the seat despite a DROP in their vote, but the SNP’s Paul Monaghan had a gaffe-prone two years and shed over 40% of his vote in a seat that’s historically been Lib Dem.

COATBRIDGE, CHRYSTON & BELLSHILL

SNP vote: down 11,000
Tory vote: up 4000
Labour vote: up 2000
Lib Dem vote: static

This seat has been Labour forever – in the 2005 election it had the highest majority of any seat in Britain – yet even here the Tories took more of the SNP vote than Labour did. But with one of Scotland’s highest Catholic populations it’s an area with major historical sectarian tensions, and the Tories’ sash-bedecked message, aided by heavy media attacks on former MP Phil Boswell, did enough damage to let Labour squeeze narrowly back in.

EAST DUNBARTONSHIRE

SNP vote: down 6000
Tory vote: up 3000
Labour vote: static
Lib Dem vote: up 1000

It doesn’t seem like anyone voted tactically for the Lib Dems in this election. But the SNP’s majority in 2015 was one of its thinnest, so it didn’t take much of a drop for the volatile seat to change hands. (Since the 1970s all four main parties in Scotland have held it at one point or another.)

EAST LOTHIAN

SNP vote: down 8000
Tory vote: up 5000
Labour vote: up 2000
Lib Dem vote: static

In a pattern we’re going to see a lot in this article, Labour’s capture of the seat – now its second-safest in Scotland, with a 3000 majority – was less down to any Labour surge than to the Tory one. Labour didn’t gain anywhere near enough votes to overturn the SNP’s 7000 majority from two years ago, but the SNP lost enough to the Tories to fall behind and give it to Labour by default.

EAST RENFREWSHIRE

SNP vote: down 6000
Tory vote: up 9000
Labour vote: down 5000
Lib Dem vote: static

This one, however, has “tactical voting” written all over it. Labour were a pretty close second in 2015, with Jim Murphy finishing 7000 votes in front of the Tory candidate, but Blair McDougall managed to LOSE 5000 Labour votes and ensure that the Tories came from 3rd to win fairly handsomely, perhaps helped by unalert voters not heeding the small print on this genuine billboard McDougall put up all over the constituency.

EDINBURGH WEST

SNP vote: down 6000
Tory vote: up 5000
Labour vote: up 1000
Lib Dem vote: static

Historically-unpopular idiot Christine Jardine actually LOST the Lib Dems 60 votes on their 2015 figure, but the Tories managed to hurt the SNP enough for that to still give her party back a seat they’d previously held for 20 years.

GLASGOW NORTH EAST

SNP vote: down 9000
Tory vote: up 2000
Labour vote: up 1000
Lib Dem vote: static

This was another seat the SNP lost rather than Labour winning. Kezia Dugdale’s party barely improved on their dire 2015 showing, but a collapse in the vote of another candidate heavily targeted by Daily Mail smears saw Labour pinch it by a couple of hundred thanks to Tory gains from the Nats.

GORDON

SNP vote: down 6000
Tory vote: up 15,000
Labour vote: up 3000
Lib Dem vote: down 13,000

An almost entirely tactical-votes victory, and the most obvious of the night. The Lib Dems were second in 2015, with almost three times the Tory vote, but they simply moved over en masse to let the Tories win from more than 20,000 votes behind, although even then it still needed a hefty number of SNP voters to walk away from former First Minister Alex Salmond (again probably on account of Brexit).

KIRKCALDY & COWDENBEATH

SNP vote: down 11,000
Tory vote: up 6000
Labour vote: down 1000
Lib Dem vote: static

This one’s a bit of a puzzler. Labour captured the seat by a tiny sliver despite their vote going DOWN. The SNP’s Roger Mullin was a conscientious and effective MP, but saw a huge drop in his vote, which mostly went to the Tories despite the seat being traditionally a Labour mining area (it was Gordon Brown’s old heartland).

MIDLOTHIAN

SNP vote: down 9000
Tory vote: up 6000
Labour vote: up 2000
Lib Dem vote: up 1000

This small Labour gain would barely have dented the SNP’s 10,000 majority, but the Tory swing hurt the Nats enough to get Labour the seat back by under 900 votes.

It’s quite hard to ascertain the motivation of Tory voters here. Even with a big swing they had no chance of winning, so we must assume they thought – wrongly – that the UK outcome was so secure they could afford to attack the SNP without helping Jeremy Corbyn. That won’t be the case next time.

(The other possible analysis – that the SNP lost votes back to Labour in a traditionally Labour seat, but Labour voters then squandered most of that advantage by tactically voting Tory – makes no sense, and that applies in lots of other areas too. Swings CAN be in multiple stages – SNP voters go Labour, Labour voters go Tory, producing what looks like a straight SNP-to-Tory move when it actually isn’t – but what sort of loony would be voting tactically for the Tories in, say, Glasgow East?)

MORAY

SNP vote: down 6000
Tory vote: up 7000
Labour vote: static
Lib Dem vote: static

Another Brexit-centred switch rather than a tactical one. Moray was the most Leave constituency in Scotland, voting just 51% Remain.

OCHIL & SOUTH PERTHSHIRE

SNP vote: down 8000
Tory vote: up 10,000
Labour vote: down 6000
Lib Dem vote: static

A big Labour-to-Tory tactical vote here, among a few other likely reasons. Dropping 8000 votes in the wake of a disastrous IT cock-up over EU farm subsidies still wouldn’t have been enough for Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh to lose (by just 3000) without hefty Tory gains from Labour voters.

RUTHERGLEN & HAMILTON WEST

SNP vote: down 11,000
Tory vote: up 6000
Labour vote: down 1000
Lib Dem vote: down 1000

Another historic Labour seat in the West of Scotland where Tory gains from their heavily sectarian campaign hurt the SNP enough to return the seat to Labour by a wafer-thin margin despite Labour actually LOSING votes since their 2015 defeat.

STIRLING

SNP vote: down 6000
Tory vote: up 6000
Labour vote: down 2000
Lib Dem vote: static

This is another seat where co-ordinated tactical voting looks like a certainty. Labour were 2nd in 2015 and would have been the logical recipients of a Unionist vote, yet the Tories came from 3rd to win it because Labour’s vote went DOWN. And every tactical vote was needed, because the Tories won the seat by just 148, with Labour miles behind in 3rd.

WEST ABERDEENSHIRE AND KINCARDINE

SNP vote: down 6000
Tory vote: up 9000
Labour vote: up 3000
Lib Dem vote: down 7000

As with Gordon, this was a big Lib-Dem-to-Tory tactical switch where the drop in the SNP vote alone wouldn’t have been enough to give the Tories the seat, but the big boost from Lib Dems ensured what was in the end a comfortable win.

———————————————————————————————-

So it’s a complicated picture. Overt and direct tactical voting, counter-intuitively, seems to only have played a significant part in a handful of seats (eg Gordon, East Renfrewshire, Edinburgh South, Ayr, Ochil, Stirling).

More commonly, SNP losses appear to have been – whether accidentally or on purpose – the result NOT of a surge to the party that won the seat, but of the Tories’ nationwide swing hurting the SNP so much that Labour or the Lib Dems won “by default”, without actually making any ground themselves.

Labour was in truth pretty startled to gain six new seats in which their total combined net vote only went up by 4,000. In two of the six its vote went DOWN, and the Lib Dem story was even more striking – of its three gains, two were won off the back of a LOWER vote than the party got in 2015.

Except in a very small number of seats, this election wasn’t so much a triumph of tactical voting as a case of a rising Tory tide lifting all Unionist boats. And while 21 seats were swept away – and the damage could easily have been considerably worse – the SNP may take some comfort from that fact.

It’s hard to see the Tory vote getting much bigger than this – we’ve always been of the view that it had a ceiling of around 30%, and it’s more or less there now – and even a very modest SNP recovery would take back quite a lot of seats very quickly.

Conversely, even in seats where Labour ran the Nats very close, the actual Labour vote barely moved. The SNP might have only held Glasgow East, for example, by 75 votes, but that was entirely down to the collapse of its own vote – down by 10,000 after a string of scandals hit former MP Natalie McGarry. Labour still only actually managed to pick up 220 of those votes, with 20 times as many going to the Tories.

So in short: despite their seat gains, there’s no Labour surge in Scotland, no Lib Dem revival, and the Tories have probably just about hit their maximum but still only won a fifth of seats and just scraped into second place in vote share.

None of that changes the broader picture – support for independence is still basically unchanged and the SNP will still have a challenge on their hands to secure a pro-Yes majority at the next Holyrood election. A difficult couple of years are ahead.

But it does suggest that unless they do something stupid their grip on Scottish politics in general looks secure for some time yet, and in a rough week that might just cheer them up a little.

[sparky88]

Ayrshire is just across the sea from Northern Ireland and that's why there was likely to be a big Orange vote...Utter mince.

The real reason is that Ayr votes Tory anyway mostly because it's a well heeled area, so a small swing to the tories in the other parts of the constituency would see them take it . 

I think mr Campbell is using perceived sectarianism as a comfort blanket to distract from the SNP campaigns failings personally.

[Fide]

24 minutes ago, sparky88 said:

Ayrshire is just across the sea from Northern Ireland and that's why there was likely to be a big Orange vote...Utter mince.

The real reason is that Ayr votes Tory anyway mostly because it's a well heeled area, so a small swing to the tories in the other parts of the constituency would see them take it . 

I think mr Campbell is using perceived sectarianism as a comfort blanket to distract from the SNP campaigns failings personally.

Actually, on that particular score, I would agree with you.

I'm from Prestwick (still SNP thank f**k) and I know from personal experience that large chunks of Ayr, in particular places like Alloway, Doonfoot, Maidens etc, a large chunk of people there are either affluent, elderly or "fur coat and no knickers".  Prime Tory fodder.