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ICTChris

2017 election post-mortem

153 posts in this topic

The dust has settled. The zoomball Nats have spent days repeating that they won, they did, they totally won and if you say they didn't then don't speak to them or their son ever again. The Yoons have been re-watching the Gordon declaration over and over, while having the world's angriest stranglewank.

 

But why did the SNP lose so many seats, more than almost anyone predicted? Why did the Tories make strong gains, where did the Lib Dem revival come from and how the f**k did Scottish Labour, for whom a grave was being dug, manage to end up winning seven seats?

 

I have my own thoughts but I'm going to see Wonder Woman so you'll have to wait for them, I'm sure you are all gutted.

 

Have any P&Bers ever predicted an election correctly?

Have any P&Bers ever had a stranglewank while watching an election declaration?

Do any P&Bers have a single clue what is going on?

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28 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

 

 

Have any P&Bers ever predicted an election correctly?

Have any P&Bers ever had a stranglewank while watching an election declaration?

Do any P&Bers have a single clue what is going on?

 

 

Yes, Yes, and No. Not telling you the order, though. 

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SNP - Horrible time for an election to be called for them. Were talking up Independence and marginalising 38% of the country ("Scotland voted to Remain") in response to Brexit and an election has come along, providing a lot of pissed off people an opportunity to give them a slap. Seems clear that their own voter base is suffering electoral fatigue as well. In 2015, the Yes/SNP side had fire in their belly, this time the opposite was true and the Unionists came out on the day. Could maybe write it off as unfortunate timing for them but what is concerning is Corbyn coming up to Glasgow and suddenly taking a few seats that nobody predicted. I saw Sturgeon appearing a lot in places like East Lothian and East Renfrewshire but Glasgow was never anticipated as a battle ground. A touch of Scottish Labour-style complacency on show already?

Conservative - See "pissed off people" above, they did nothing but target these folk and it worked. They talked, almost literally, about nothing other than Independence and went very quiet on Davidson's remainer status. There was a big portion of the electorate up for grabs here and they did an extremely effective job of getting them on board.

Labour - Jeremy Corbyn.

Lib Dem - Dunno. I wasn't paying attention to them and refuse to do so.

Edited by Alan Stubbs
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5 minutes ago, Alan Stubbs said:

SNP -  A touch of Scottish Labour-style complacency on show already?

I'd be inclined to agree with this. Pre-2015, I don't think that anyone bar a few zealots within the independence movement took votes for granted, but now I'm not so sure.

 

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Anne McGlaughlin (sp sorry?), her campaign team, most of the constituency including myself and other mates and even Paul Sweeney did not think Scottish Labour were going to take Glasgow North East.

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The Scottish picture is actually not that remarkable, but seems it in relation to the 2015 picture and what polls were predicting.

The massive anomaly however, was 2015.  The timing of starting to aim at another referendum was of course ultimately disastrous, but it made more sense at the time.  I think that it largely opened the door to the Tories, although I do find the scale of their Scottish recovery pretty baffling.

I maintain though that an awful lot of people who have been voting SNP recently are not committed separatists and it's not surprising that plenty found a more comfortable berth this time in Labour.  I might go there myself if we have to do this again soon.

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What Lib Dem revival? Their highest profile MP got put on his arse.

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The SNP were hit with an almost perfect storm this time round. Brexit, Corbyn, No IndyRef2 and tactical voting. Their own failings contributed massively too, being targeted (rightly or wrongly) by the media and other parties on devolved issues, failure to get the vote out and an insipid campaign almost entirely recycled from 2015 run by Derek McKay.

The Tories scored big time from Brexit in the North East and tactical voting by campaigning on the single No IndyRef issue.

Labour and the Lib Dems barely increased their votes, but still managed to scoop some seats due to the drop in SNP support.

What is more certain now, is that there is a sizable North British nationalist vote, who will continue to cast their ballot on a single issue. This is more apparent now, with the two main parties at WM as further apart ideologically as anytime in the last 40 years.

 

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I see Kenny MacAskill is out briefing against Sturgeon and Murrell. I guess revenge is a dish best served cold.

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I guess it remaims to be seen if labour can keep all these SNP votes.

Depends what will happen in the next couple of years and if Corbyn can survive.

The thing is voting labour in a UK election context is only ever going to give a temporary reprieve from the UK tories. 

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Labour's position on the EU will cause them problems.  They want a "soft Bexit" but reject continued membership of the Single Market.  If the UK rejects the Single Market there is no way that the outcome will be anything other than a hard Brexit.

The SNP must continue to pursue the argument for continued membership of the Single Market and highlight what the impact will be on Scotland if it doesn't happen.

 

 

 

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39 minutes ago, git-intae-thum said:

I guess it remaims to be seen if labour can keep all these SNP votes.

Depends what will happen in the next couple of years and if Corbyn can survive.

The thing is voting labour in a UK election context is only ever going to give a temporary reprieve from the UK tories. 

Labour didn't take many SNP votes at all - the Labour vote in Scotland remained remarkably stable - what do they know of Labour that only Labour know?   Most of the disaffected SNP vote (that's the only way I can express it) went directly to the Conservatives.  Which, you would think, would be a transient thing, but I'm still having a hard time explaining why it happened in the first place.  Tactical voting and single issue politics doesn't even come close to explaining that.  SNP/Leave in the North East perhaps a little more.  The Cult of Personality may be at its peak, with Ruth Davidson being much more appealing to swing voters than the SNP top brass believed.

 

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Most interesting part of this election, from a P&B perspective, is that there's been a minimal amount of goading from all sides. You might have thought the Tory boys would have been soaked in their own fluids, a la Randy Marsh, but it seems even they're realised that a bigger vote than anticipated still only resulted in about a fifth of Scotland's seats. Doesn't seem like anybody honestly feels that they won.

Surely, though, we can all come together to laugh at UKIP. A touch over five thousand votes across the entire nation. Anyone know if Coburn's sources were telling him he'd won in Fife this time?  :1eye

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37 minutes ago, Savage Henry said:

Labour didn't take many SNP votes at all - the Labour vote in Scotland remained remarkably stable - what do they know of Labour that only Labour know?   Most of the disaffected SNP vote (that's the only way I can express it) went directly to the Conservatives.  Which, you would think, would be a transient thing, but I'm still having a hard time explaining why it happened in the first place.  Tactical voting and single issue politics doesn't even come close to explaining that.  SNP/Leave in the North East perhaps a little more.  The Cult of Personality may be at its peak, with Ruth Davidson being much more appealing to swing voters than the SNP top brass believed.

 

My guess is that some Labour voters moved directly to Tories due to tactical voting... these were replaced by SNP voters moving to Labour (due to dissatisfaction with SNP, Corbyn boost etc.)

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3 hours ago, NotThePars said:

Anne McGlaughlin (sp sorry?), her campaign team, most of the constituency including myself and other mates and even Paul Sweeney did not think Scottish Labour were going to take Glasgow North East.

Classic "any fat burd" could have have stood for SNP in 2015 and won. Between her and the boyfriend they managed to piss off half the local membership.

Corbyn won the seat not the "any local Sellik fan will do" SLAB candidate in seat where half the population are on benefits.

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The SNP message was frankly a mess, the announcement of the second referendum, even on here, was seen as far too soon so as you can imagine 55% of the country plus those who voted for Brexit weren't especially enamoured by the prospect. In the long run this result might not be a total disaster if they learn the lessons and put independence on the back burner for period. Longer term, Jeremy Corbyn's resurgence is a concern as it is showing up the SNP not being as left wing as perhaps their supporters would like them to be. Another election could be extremely bad for them if the matter is framed as simply as Labour or Tories. People voted SNP because they believed that a left wing country wasn't possible in Britain, now that Corbyn has proved that there is more chance than ever, the SNP could lose a whole lot of people and so called Irish Republican Jez could be the saviour of the union. 

For Labour, Corbyn has rehabilitated the Party, the sooner SLAB gets away from undermining him and points out various SNP failings much more productively, they could be relevant again. The independence question being buried for now is an opportunity to get as far away from Unionism as possible as they just sound muddle especially compared to the Tories.  Next general election they really aren't far off taking more SNP seats and possibly Tories so there is a lot to be excited about. Punting Dugdale and putting someone more left wing/competent would be helpful.

The Tories worked because it was a simple message that resonated with a lot of people and they kept the manifesto and Theresa May out of the way as much as possible. Hopefully the scrutiny is well and truly on now but so many rural seats are now safe for them. That it does feel like the Union is ranked far higher than any issue for so many people which is frankly quite sad. 

Whether Davidson is content in Scotland or seeks the lights of Westminster where she could make a lot of noise.

Lib Dems - 'Shrug shoulders'

 

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13 minutes ago, Sloop John B said:

Longer term, Jeremy Corbyn's resurgence is a concern as it is showing up the SNP not being as left wing as perhaps their supporters would like them to be. Another election could be extremely bad for them if the matter is framed as simply as Labour or Tories.

Tend to agree here. If there's another election this year with Corbyn leading Labour, the SNP MP count could be heading back down towards single figures.

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Voters are thickle.

That is all.

 

Edit--politicians are worse than voters.

 

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4 minutes ago, DublinMagyar said:

Voters are thickle.
That is all.

Or maybe politicians believe any old sheck the advisors spin them.

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