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The bigger picture


Donathan

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Scotland are even further away from qualifying than before the game yesterday.  Fallen further behind the Slo's and there is 3 points less available to first catch them, then overtake them.  It's not happening. 

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Not since 2007 - we won 6 games in a row, including 4 qualifiers:

Austria 0-1 Scotland (friendly)
Faroe Islands 0-2 Scotland
Scotland 1-0 South Africa (friendly)
Scotland 3-1 Lithuania
France 0-1 Scotland
Scotland 3-1 Ukraine


EDIT: Before that 1997 (Malta-Belarus-Belarus-Latvia) and 1995 (Ecuador-Faroe-Greece-Finland), but the first were friendlies in both cases. Before that a 3-game tour of Canada and friendly v Uruguay in 1983.

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The big picture is, of our midfield, only Scott Brown gave a passable performance.

If we can keep the same system, and our midfielders actually turn up, then we have a platform for which to build.

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Guest DAVIDB69

Big picture is once again as the international season closes till the autumn we are the only home nation pretty much out of the qualifying picture

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2 hours ago, HibeeJibee said:

Not since 2007 - we won 6 games in a row, including 4 qualifiers:

Austria 0-1 Scotland (friendly)
Faroe Islands 0-2 Scotland
Scotland 1-0 South Africa (friendly)
Scotland 3-1 Lithuania
France 0-1 Scotland
Scotland 3-1 Ukraine


EDIT: Before that 1997 (Malta-Belarus-Belarus-Latvia) and 1995 (Ecuador-Faroe-Greece-Finland), but the first were friendlies in both cases. Before that a 3-game tour of Canada and friendly v Uruguay in 1983.

So 1997, 2007, 2017 doesn't seem so unlikely.

See you all in Russia.

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Having played around with the table calculator these is very much still a chance. A remote one, given, but not as slim a chance as some on here seem to think.

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Having played around with the table calculator these is very much still a chance. A remote one, given, but not as slim a chance as some on here seem to think.

Agree with this. If we can come away from Lithuania with 3 points, that'd be massive, especially if Slovakia and Slovenia draw but even a win for either side isn't a disaster. It's a big ask to win 4 on the trot but it can be done.
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Agree with this. If we can come away from Lithuania with 3 points, that'd be massive, especially if Slovakia and Slovenia draw but even a win for either side isn't a disaster. It's a big ask to win 4 on the trot but it can be done.

 

Quite. We can f**k it up in Lithuania but we should be looking for 6 points in the next two games. In the mean time the Slovakia - Slovenia game could really help us by being a draw, but isn't essential. That leaves us with another must win game at Hampden in the penultimate round and we do have a good home record, win that and it's probably in our hands.

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Quite. We can f**k it up in Lithuania but we should be looking for 6 points in the next two games. In the mean time the Slovakia - Slovenia game could really help us by being a draw, but isn't essential. That leaves us with another must win game at Hampden in the penultimate round and we do have a good home record, win that and it's probably in our hands.

Looking at the best 2nd placed teams, I don't think we can afford to drop points in Lithuania, yes it may still see us finish 2nd but it would leave it extremely tight in making it into the play offs. For example the current bottom side in the 2nd placed teams is Montenegro on 7 points, if we somehow manage to collect all 12 points we will be on 14 points (excluding the Malta games) meaning Montenegro would need 7 points from a possible 9 (they've still to play the bottom placed side again). If we were to draw at any point they would only need 5 points from 9, a bit squeaky bum for my liking.

Everything is great in theory but when you look at it its not too disastrous, still expecting us to f**k up but there's still enough belief there.
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The hardest thing will be beating Slovakia, but as long as England do what they need to, then second is still in our own hands.

As for worst of the runners up danger, I don't see too much danger in that if we win the last 4 games. Northern Ireland and Montenegro are more likely to take that spot.

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I'd think of it as a bigger picture than just the qualifying campaign to be honest.  The cold facts are that even if we do win our final 4 games - which is certainly possible although unlikely - we are likely to miss out anyway as the odd group out.  If that happens we'll get the usual hard luck storylines, but it's our own fault, just like it'll be Slovakia/Slovenia's own fault if they get the same.

But, if I was in charge of the team, I'd be getting them into the mindset to forget about qualifying from now.  Historically we've never managed pressure well, winning the unwinnable and then expertly fucking up the winnable.  It's highly unlikely we'll qualify,  but the difference 4 wins from 4 would make going into the next campaign would be massive.  2020 is going to be our best chance to qualify, either the normal way or through the Nations League, so it's imperative we take some kind of momentum in there.  

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I think as soon as you start looking for other teams to do you a favour, your chances are pretty much slim to none. Not a hope in hell we will win the next four. 

Like most qualifying campaigns we will look back at this one with a lot of "what if" moments. 

In all honesty, if even we won Saturday, I still don't think we would have enough to get to Russia.

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Scotland have only beaten one non minnow in over 3 years.  That was Slovenia at home with a late goal.

There's no chance of us wining our last 4 games, our qualification hopes ended with the Lithuania disgrace at Hampden.

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16 hours ago, TheScarf said:

Scotland are even further away from qualifying than before the game yesterday.  Fallen further behind the Slo's and there is 3 points less available to first catch them, then overtake them.  It's not happening. 

Indeed.

We were in a bad position on Saturday morning and we are in an even worse position now.  It's frankly deluded to think that Scotland have any realistic chance of being in Russia next summer.

 

 

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Guest DAVIDB69

The media are still sticking with the four wins should give us second mantra, however it's not very realistic

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26 minutes ago, DAVIDB69 said:

The media are still sticking with the four wins should give us second mantra, however it's not very realistic

Presumably because they want to stay onside with Strachan.  They know it's not happening.

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