The bigger picture

[Donathan]

The last few minutes last night were heartbreaking but overall I think a draw keeps us in play for second place.

 

Slovakia have 12 points right now, Slovenia have 11 and we have 8. But crucially, we've now played our three toughest games (@ England, @ Slovakia, vs England).

 

To get second place we simply MUST win our last four games. We'll have to beat Slovakia at Hampden which will be very tricky to do but you have to get those results to have any chance.

 

The result that's really killing us just now is that Lithuania game. That was a real slip up. It means we'll need 6 points off Slovenia when 4 would normally be okay.

 

We need England to do us two massive favours and defeat both Slovakia and Slovenia.

 

 

Basically if England win every remaining game OR if Slovakia and Slovenia draw with each other then it's in our own hands

[SuperShug1910]

As much as I agree with this in the sense that it is not over and there is still a chance, another hurdle standing in our way is having enough points to qualify as one of the best 2nd placed teams for the play-offs. Call me foolish but I think we are capable of getting the 4 wins required, of course it won't be easy but there's always the chance and we'd just have to hope from there on that we make the play offs. Had no problems with the team selection yesterday however would have Fraser in for Smodgrass from the start now and Gordon & Anya didn't do themselves any justice yesterday. We need to have a real attacking threat for the final four games and playing Griffiths upfront and having pace in the flanks give us this chance IMO. Sounds so easy to analyse our remaining games on paper and have us in the play offs, we know it'll probably end in disaster but here goes...

Lithuania really aren't any great shakes and I think we can get over the Hampden disaster against them and scrape the 3 points required. We never have it easy in these kind of games but we have the quality to get a result. Please not another Georgia, please.

If we don't beat Malta then quite simply we should just give up.

The Slovakia home game would be absolutely massive and I really don't know how we would get on, it would be tough but hopefully with a full house Hampden we can go one better than the result yesterday which would more than likely take it to the final day.

I haven't taken the time to calculate the points total for different scenarios etc but chances are the Slovenia game would probably be a must win. Without a doubt we were the better team at Hampden against them and I hope that kind of performance could be repeated. If so, I'd be confident we could snatch a win and set us up for going one further and achieving the glorious failure in the play offs [emoji6]

Ahh if only it was this easy.

[wellinwigan]

Wish I could be so optimistic.there is no way we will win these 4 games can see us draw in Lithuania and get beat in Slovenia 

[roman_bairn]

Wish I could be so optimistic.there is no way we will win these 4 games can see us draw in Lithuania and get beat in Slovenia 

Was working it out based on the most likely results (which in itself is unlikely) and we could possibly finish second by drawing in Slovenia in the final game.

However as others have said it would probably cost us a play off spot based on fewest points won.

So really, it's quite simple, win all four and just hope...

[kenny131]

I just have feeling the team and fans really needed that yesterday and we will kick on from here the scenes when that 2nd went in was incredible something even strachan acknowledged. Hopefully that will spur him on to being more adventurous he now has a platform to kick on. Our starting team seems to change lots every game but yesterday 2/3rds of starting team played well and should be starting next game, anya snodgrass Gordon look finished at this level. Gordon has not been helped this season by being a mere passenger in most games not doing anything and it was telling yesterday his decision making all game was horrendous.

Even though that Kane goal was the biggest boot in the baws I can remember I feel much more optimistic going forward strachan has brought more youthful players in certain positions and it's working, fingers crossed burke and gauld can kick on next season and start to show their potential.

It's not all doom and gloom for once.

[Gordopolis]

It can be done. I don't think we will do it though. I can see us throwing everything into these 4 games but having a few moments like the last minute goal yesterday that will undo all of our efforts.

[HibeeJibee]

No different to interminable previous cases of "ah but it works and only needs us to do X and them not to do Y and someone else not to do Z!". It's still pretty unlikely.

We have to win all 4 of our remaining games... That includes visiting Lithuania (who we could only draw with at home), hosting Slovakia (who gubbed us away), then visiting Slovenia (who we scraped past at home). We have to also hope Slovakia or Slovenia don't take maximum points from their other games. We have to further hope that some other group (most likely Group E) cuts each others throats even more than ours to avoid being worst runners-up - however Denmark have already played Kazakhstan twice, meaning fewer points to fall off when recalibrated going forward.

Meanwhile put yourself in Slovakia's position. All they need to do is beat Slovenia at home and draw with us. They can afford to lose at Wembley and their last game is home to Malta which they'd surely win if they needed to. Basically they know 4pts from their next 3 games has them almost home 'n hosed for 2nd... we know 9pts from our next 3 games is required just to avoid outright elimination.

[kenny131]

12 minutes ago, HibeeJibee said:

No different to interminable previous cases of "ah but it works and only needs us to do X and them not to do Y and someone else not to do Z!". It's still pretty unlikely.

We have to win all 4 of our remaining games... That includes visiting Lithuania (who we could only draw with at home), hosting Slovakia (who gubbed us away), then visiting Slovenia (who we scraped past at home). We have to also hope Slovakia or Slovenia don't take maximum points from their other games. We have to further hope that some other group (most likely Group E) cuts each others throats even more than ours to avoid being worst runners-up - however Denmark have already played Kazakhstan twice, meaning fewer points to fall off when recalibrated going forward.

Meanwhile put yourself in Slovakia's position. All they need to do is beat Slovenia at home and draw with us. They can afford to lose at Wembley and their last game is home to Malta which they'd surely win if they needed to. Basically they know 4pts from their next 3 games has them almost home 'n hosed for 2nd... we know 9pts from our next 3 games is required just to avoid outright elimination.

Yes it will be difficult but we got to believe we can do it or what's the point. It's about time all us supposed Scots fans ditched the negativity and got behind the team no matter what, the scenes yesterday at Hampden has gave me a boot up the arse in this respect as seeing my fellow country men celebrating with such emotion has changed my negative out look for the better, we are not going to win every game we play or qualify for every tournament but we're all there to support the team through thick and thin. The good times will come back sooner or later.

[kenny131]

.

[RandomGuy.]

We're not finishing second, that's been clear since we drew with Lithuania.

That's not being "negative" or "defeatist", it's just stating a blatant fact.

[HibeeJibee]

There's a difference between realism and negativity.


EDIT: RG got in there first... Also I don't perceive this "negativity"? For umpteem campaigns on end* we drop points early doors but telling ourselves it wasn't a must-win, end up chasing an ever decreasing set of chances with a kind of blind optimism, rally somewhat, then come up short perceiving it as sort of glorious failure or bad luck.

That's not "negativity" - you could actually call it over-positivity. If I can be particularly controversial - maybe it's actually part of the problem.

*with odd exception like Euro 2008 where we reversed it by doing really well then dropping points to Georgia on the cusp of qualification against all odds

[kenny131]

2 minutes ago, RandomGuy. said:

We're not finishing second, that's been clear since we drew with Lithuania.

That's not being "negative" or "defeatist", it's just stating a blatant fact.

So we don't finish 2nd it's not our God given right too, but it's still possible so yes it's negative to say we won't 

[Blootoon87]

Winning four games in a row? Let's get real lads, it's not happening.

[tree house tam]

We'll win 3 and draw with Malta. It's the Scottish way.

[kenny131]

2 minutes ago, Blootoon87 said:

Winning four games in a row? Let's get real lads, it's not happening.

Each to your opinions I believe we can do it. Slovakia at home we can win Slovenia we should have beat 3 nil and outplayed them lithunia was our worst performance so far if we win away it's on in my opinion.

[HibeeJibee]

17 minutes ago, HibeeJibee said:

There's a difference between realism and negativity.


For umpteem campaigns on end* we drop points early doors but telling ourselves it wasn't a must-win, end up chasing an ever decreasing set of chances with a kind of blind optimism, rally somewhat, then come up short perceiving it as sort of glorious failure or bad luck.

That's not "negativity" - you could actually call it over-positivity.

 

10 minutes ago, kenny131 said:

Each to your opinions I believe we can do it. Slovakia at home we can win Slovenia we should have beat 3 nil and outplayed them lithunia was our worst performance so far if we win away it's on in my opinion.

I rest my case. We didn't beat Slovenia 3-0, we scraped home 1-0 at the death... we didn't beat Lithuania at home at all... and yep, we "can" beat Slovakia, but they humped us 3-0.

You criticise others for "negativity" while exhibiting the sort of "if only, if only, what if, what if" that can equally be labelled "over-positive" or at least sufficiently unrealistic or uncritical.


I'm not saying we can't do it - as long as it's mathematically possible, of course, it can be done.

Whether it will be is different - and whether being open about that is "negative" is highly debateable.

[kenny131]

4 minutes ago, HibeeJibee said:

 

I rest my case. We didn't beat Slovenia 3-0, we scraped it 1-0 in stoppage time... we didn't beat Lithuania at home at all... and yep, we "can" beat Slovakia, but they humped us 3-0.

You criticise others for "negativity" while exhibiting the sort of "if only, if only, what if, what if" that can equally be labelled "over-positive" or at least sufficiently unrealistic or uncritical.


I'm not saying we can't do it - as long as it's mathematically possible, of course, it can be done.

Whether it will be is different - and whether being open about that is "negative" is highly debateable.

Meh what a negative post. 

[Grangemouth Bairn]

1 hour ago, kenny131 said:

I just have feeling the team and fans really needed that yesterday and we will kick on from here the scenes when that 2nd went in was incredible something even strachan acknowledged. Hopefully that will spur him on to being more adventurous he now has a platform to kick on. Our starting team seems to change lots every game but yesterday 2/3rds of starting team played well and should be starting next game, anya snodgrass Gordon look finished at this level. Gordon has not been helped this season by being a mere passenger in most games not doing anything and it was telling yesterday his decision making all game was horrendous.

Even though that Kane goal was the biggest boot in the baws I can remember I feel much more optimistic going forward strachan has brought more youthful players in certain positions and it's working, fingers crossed burke and gauld can kick on next season and start to show their potential.

It's not all doom and gloom for once.

Gordon's a big fearty.

[Monkey Tennis]

3 hours ago, tree house tam said:

We'll win 3 and draw with Malta. It's the Scottish way.

It's not particularly.

[Monkey Tennis]

HJ has got this.

If anything we're not realistic enough.  Convincing ourselves we're still alive and that rotten results like the early ones in this campaign aren't that bad, is childlike and deluded.

We need to recognise more clearly what is necessary in games.