The DUP

[LongTimeLurker]

Think you'll find that number is misleading and that on other measures the UK is their biggest trading partner at around 50% or so. The reason they won't cave is because they don't get to negotiate separately from the rest of the EU and even if it's not stated publicly the rest of the EU want to make sure that the UK suffers without being too blatant about it. The RoI is just collateral damage when this issue is viewed from Berlin and Paris.

[welshbairn]

3 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Think you'll find that number is misleading and that on other measures the UK is their biggest trading partner at around 50% or so. The reason they won't cave is because they don't get to negotiate separately from the rest of the EU and even if it's not stated publicly the rest of the EU want to make sure that the UK suffers without being too blatant about it. The RoI is just collateral damage when this issue is viewed from Berlin and Paris.

The higher figures are based on bulk rather than value.

[Jacksgranda]

37 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Think you'll find that number is misleading and that on other measures the UK is their biggest trading partner at around 50% or so. The reason they won't cave is because they don't get to negotiate separately from the rest of the EU and even if it's not stated publicly the rest of the EU want to make sure that the UK suffers without being too blatant about it. The RoI is just collateral damage when this issue is viewed from Berlin and Paris.

That's what I said earlier - the big players don't really care how the RoI is affected, as long as the UK gets a kicking.

[HTG]

15 minutes ago, Jacksgranda said:

That's what I said earlier - the big players don't really care how the RoI is affected, as long as the UK gets a kicking.

It's really not that simple though is it? Leaving the EU means just that. The UK has already stated it won't enter a customs union like Norway. That customs union requires sign up to freedom of movement. If you are not prepared to have free movement then you need border controls. And they need to be at the point of entry to the UK.  If they're not going to be at the point of entry then they're somewhere else.  So if not on the NI/ROI border they need to be on the NI/UK mainland border or they need to be on the ROI border. We can rule out the last option - it's a non starter.

The UK has chosen to leave the EU. If I were in the EU, I wouldn't be happy about a non EU country enjoying tariff free access to my markets without playing their part in all the stuff that goes into helping the EU gel. That includes the principle that stronger economies offer some support to those who are not at the same level through input into the EU pot. Nobody particularly wants more Greeces so there is a challenge to those weaker economies too. 

The UK position in a nutshell is that we want to import and export at will like the rest of them but we won't accept any of the rest of the membership criteria. No wonder some would object or want to get a message across. The divorce bill is a sham in its own right given it only covers what we've already committed to. 

The UK wants cake - lots of cake.

[Jacksgranda]

Well, it's obviously a bit more nuanced than "giving the UK a kicking", but helping the  RoI doesn't appear on the EU agenda, as far as I can see. Perhaps a case of the de'il tak the hindmost.

[HTG]

8 minutes ago, Jacksgranda said:

Well, it's obviously a bit more nuanced than "giving the UK a kicking", but helping the  RoI doesn't appear on the EU agenda, as far as I can see. Perhaps a case of the de'il tak the hindmost.

They've got the capability to help the ROI though so you could expect to see a fair bit of investment by the EU into the Irish economy to make sure they're not exposed by another country's decision. 

[Granny Danger]

48 minutes ago, HTG said:

It's really not that simple though is it? Leaving the EU means just that. The UK has already stated it won't enter a customs union like Norway. That customs union requires sign up to freedom of movement. If you are not prepared to have free movement then you need border controls. And they need to be at the point of entry to the UK.  If they're not going to be at the point of entry then they're somewhere else.  So if not on the NI/ROI border they need to be on the NI/UK mainland border or they need to be on the ROI border. We can rule out the last option - it's a non starter.

The UK has chosen to leave the EU. If I were in the EU, I wouldn't be happy about a non EU country enjoying tariff free access to my markets without playing their part in all the stuff that goes into helping the EU gel. That includes the principle that stronger economies offer some support to those who are not at the same level through input into the EU pot. Nobody particularly wants more Greeces so there is a challenge to those weaker economies too. 

The UK position in a nutshell is that we want to import and export at will like the rest of them but we won't accept any of the rest of the membership criteria. No wonder some would object or want to get a message across. The divorce bill is a sham in its own right given it only covers what we've already committed to. 

The UK wants cake - lots of cake.

You seem to be suggesting that what the UK wants for the Irish border is completely unachievable; and guess what, it is.

[HTG]

2 hours ago, Granny Danger said:

You seem to be suggesting that what the UK wants for the Irish border is completely unachievable; and guess what, it is.

It's achievable if the UK retains a completely open border with part of the EU and the UK doesn't then stop any movement of goods or people who flow across that border. That'll not happen so it's fucked. 

[Co.Down Hibee]

2 hours ago, HTG said:

They've got the capability to help the ROI though so you could expect to see a fair bit of investment by the EU into the Irish economy to make sure they're not exposed by another country's decision. 

The EU have invested massively into the republic already after they took on the Euro, the Celtic Tiger years. Not too sure how the other small nations within the EU would feel if they were given preference over them again.

[HTG]

The other nations know the score here. Nobody wants another Brexit - particularly one that could be extremely messy. Imagine the impact on Portugal if Spain fucked off.

Edited December 1, 2017 by HTG

[Jacksgranda]

53 minutes ago, Co.Down Hibee said:

The EU have invested massively into the republic already after they took on the Euro, the Celtic Tiger years. Not too sure how the other small nations within the EU would feel if they were given preference over them again.

They won't count, either.

[doulikefish]

Best thing about the whole brexit mess is that the Dup are really representing the views regarding the referendum  of there constituents

[DrewDon]

Worthwhile explainer from Stephen Bush: https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/11/could-irish-border-bring-down-conservative-government.

[LongTimeLurker]

Some of that's questionable:

A hard border forces people to choose, and the DUP think that choice favours them. This holds even if there is a severe economic downturn, as the easiest way to escape that will be for people holding both Irish and British passports to move to the Republic, further strengthening the Unionist majority. And in the long term, a hard border encourages economic activity to focus on trading with England, Scotland and Wales, strengthening the union of kingdoms economically.

More likely is that they thought Remain would win and had nothing to lose by waving the Union Jack a lot during the referendum to shore up their base from splinter groups on the fringes of Unionist opinion like TUV and UKIP and have now painted themselves into a corner. The rest is pretty much on the money. No Unionist party in NI could ever go along with there effectively being a hard border between the rest of the UK and NI, so they are definitely not bluffing. Suspect the outcome is probably that Theresa May blinks first and there is a hard no deal Brexit, but it doesn't take much of a Europhile revolt from the Conservative backbenches by MPs that may be on the verge of retiring next time around to make the numbers no long work for the Tory-DUP deal so an interesting few weeks ahead. The EU are probably counting on Theresa May's government collapsing soon now that the sheer absurdity of the path they have chosen is becoming clearer and a soft Brexit EEA type outcome emerging in the aftermath of a general election with the EU's four freedoms remaining intact.  An election in a Scottish context in the next few months would be interesting given the SNP could get anywhere from 0 to 50 seats based on relatively small shifts of public opinion and tactical voting patterns from the last outcome.

[Fullerene]

The Brexiteers expected the Republic to leave the EU at the same time as the UK.
"Come on, we're leaving - grab your coat."

I think they are surprised that the Republic is choosing not to do so.
"It's in your own interest to leave at the same time as us."
"No.  Actually, it's in your own interest as well as ours not to leave at all."

Previously, because the UK had a much bigger population - it could push the Irish about.
They joined the EU at the same time.

Now it is the Republic of Ireland in combination with 26 other countries that has the bigger population.

Personally, I can't see any politician in the Republic agreeing to leave the EU to be part of a UK economic zone.

Maybe we should have a joint EU referendum:
"Do you think the UK and the Republic of Ireland should leave the EU or remain in it?"
Add the combined total.
Of course, that will never happen, although it probably would solve all the problems.

[welshbairn]

I wouldn’t be so sure about Ireland's position re the EU being a continuing lovefest since they've become a net contributor, they voted against expanding the Union and had to hold a second referendum to let it go ahead. If Brexit turns out to be not as much of the shitfest I expect and they get another referendum I could see the ungrateful b*****ds doing the dirty on Europe.

[DublinMagyar]

Recent polling here about 80-90% in favour of EU

[welshbairn]

14 minutes ago, DublinMagyar said:

Recent polling here about 80-90% in favour of EU

Good to hear.

[welshbairn]

Hopefully a sign of generational change. Not that I agree with all his politics.

How working class Catholic from west Belfast broke the mould as an Ulster Unionist

[Glenconner]

8 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Hopefully a sign of generational change. Not that I agree with all his politics.

How working class Catholic from west Belfast broke the mould as an Ulster Unionist

Snap.

I'll raise you Liam Fox from EK Dodgy.