Question Time Leaders Special 5/06/17

[Jambomo]

22 minutes ago, strichener said:

For fishermen, even if the EU did not reach agreement on tariffs, the current level applicable in the EU would still see a net benefit to Fishermen as the tariff amount (up to 24%) will be less than the increased catches (even if we continue to impose EU levels of catches).   The most recent figures I have is from 2015 where EU vessels caught 683,000 tonnes (£484m revenue) in UK waters and UK vessels caught 111,000 tonnes (£114m revenue) in member states’ waters”.   It is commonly accepted that the non-UK fishing fleet catch more than 50% of the fish taken from UK waters. 

As we are currently a net importer of fish, it is safe to assume that we are not seeing the economic benefits of the EU catches.  If we were removed from the CFP, we would see an increase of approx 75% in value of UK fishing.

If we look at farming, Scotland currently receives less than the stipulated EU minimum per acre at the expense of England and Wales.  This is the situation whilst we are currently in the EU.  What is for certain is that the UK's treatment of their fishing and agriculture will have to change if there are significant tariffs imposed by the EU.  I am pretty sure that, for example, dairy farmers would quite like to see significant tariffs on milk and dairy produce. 

We also have the EU threatening to Scotland for not making the payments quickly enough whilst the Scottish government spend over £150 million trying to put together a computer system to process the payments.  There is certainly nothing free about this type of trade.

There is quite a good article on it here: https://theconversation.com/fact-check-is-80-of-uk-fish-given-away-to-the-rest-of-europe-39966

Also this one: http://nffo.org.uk/eu-referendum/2016/05/09/fisheries-facts-not-fantasy

[strichener]

23 minutes ago, Jambomo said:

There is quite a good article on it here: https://theconversation.com/fact-check-is-80-of-uk-fish-given-away-to-the-rest-of-europe-39966

Also this one: http://nffo.org.uk/eu-referendum/2016/05/09/fisheries-facts-not-fantasy

I am not sure that I agree that it is quite a good article.  It is very misleading in that in never mentions the entirety of the CFP and states that we export 45% of the UK catch but ignores that substantially more than this is exported without any UK economic interest.  It is also quite clearly ignoring that the catch levels could remain at current EU levels and be better for the UK.

The second article would provide an even greater case for the fishermen albeit that the following:

Quote

If Farage’s point is that most of the quota for fish stocks that live in UK waters are fished by other member states, then he is correct; but the figure is not 80%, more like 70%. However, these are not “our” fish, the fish that live in UK waters are no more British than they are German, Dutch, Belgian, Irish or Norwegian: they are in fact European.

ignores the generally accepted 200 mile EEZ.

[Jambomo]

2 minutes ago, strichener said:

I am not sure that I agree that it is quite a good article.  It is very misleading in that in never mentions the entirety of the CFP and states that we export 45% of the UK catch but ignores that substantially more than this is exported without any UK economic interest.

The second article would provide an even greater case for the fishermen albeit that the following:

ignores the generally accepted 200 mile EEZ.

Well I disagree with you and think you have missed out some important points such as recovery of stocks and the local controls. Unfortunately I have to go to what will be a very tedious and long meeting now so I can't debate the point with you at the moment.

[strichener]

Just now, Jambomo said:

Well I disagree with you and think you have missed out some important points such as recovery of stocks and the local controls. Unfortunately I have to go to what will be a very tedious and long meeting now so I can't debate the point with you at the moment.

I am not sure how the recovery of stocks is in anyway related to the current CFP quota allocation.  I have edited my last post with clarification.

I really don't see that this will cause the EU any problems, they will just sign other agreements with under-developed countries to rape them of their fish rather than catch it from the UK waters.  This is already done - https://ec.europa.eu/fisheries/cfp/international/agreements/mauritania_en and in many other African countries.

[kevthedee]

The good news is, is that the wee lassie who was first to go to uni due to free tuition represents c. 45-50% of Scots....not this utter planted pish in Edinburgh tonight
Only show will romp in... 50+ seats
 
 

You seem convinced it will be 50+ SNP MPS,any specific reason for this confidence before I stick my rent/council tax on this outcome.

[ayrmad]

31 minutes ago, strichener said:

I am not sure how the recovery of stocks is in anyway related to the current CFP quota allocation.  I have edited my last post with clarification.

I really don't see that this will cause the EU any problems, they will just sign other agreements with under-developed countries to rape them of their fish rather than catch it from the UK waters.  This is already done - https://ec.europa.eu/fisheries/cfp/international/agreements/mauritania_en and in many other African countries.

Will that not mean that they might have less need to import from Scotland?.

[strichener]

16 minutes ago, ayrmad said:

Will that not mean that they might have less need to import from Scotland?.

Yes they might but it will also mean that they have to change their tastes as well as you are not going to be getting cod and haddock from the coast of Africa.  I have already pointed out, we are a net importer of fish and therefore any move towards self-sufficient should be welcomed. 

[O'Kelly Isley III]

3 hours ago, TartanWarrior said:

The SNP's incompetence is why they are losing votes.

Explain......

[John Lambies Doos]

 

You seem convinced it will be 50+ SNP MPS,any specific reason for this confidence before I stick my rent/council tax on this outcome.

 

 

I wouldn't be taking my advice Kev

I'm a glass half full guy. As long as it's over 40 I'll be happy as the corbyn bounce is well and truly happening..

Best case scenario would be Corbyn as PM being propped up by SNP. That would be glorious

 

[kevthedee]

 
I wouldn't be taking my advice Kev [emoji38]
I'm a glass half full guy. As long as it's over 40 I'll be happy as the corbyn bounce is well and truly happening..
Best case scenario would be Corbyn as PM being propped up by SNP. That would be glorious
 

45 SNP MPS is my guess but it's difficult to judge.

Far To many polls are put out now that are conflicting especially the English ones.

[Loondave1]

 
I wouldn't be taking my advice Kev [emoji38]
I'm a glass half full guy. As long as it's over 40 I'll be happy as the corbyn bounce is well and truly happening..
Best case scenario would be Corbyn as PM being propped up by SNP. That would be glorious
 

Hand in hand with the "Red Tories"....tut tut.

[Jim McLean's Ghost]

4 hours ago, strichener said:

Yes they might but it will also mean that they have to change their tastes as well as you are not going to be getting cod and haddock from the coast of Africa.  I have already pointed out, we are a net importer of fish and therefore any move towards self-sufficient should be welcomed. 

That isn't going to work. A lot of the fish exported is high quality fish which goes to the international market where as we import a whole lot of lesser quality fish for use in ready meals, fish fingers and the like.

Scottish fishermen won't be able to provide for that market at current prices and will face tariffs to export into other markets which means their whole industry will be devalued by Brexit.

[McSpreader]

8 hours ago, NorthernJambo said:

Not if it wasn't the case. How much of an arse does she look now if we call a second Indy ref before the end of the Brexit process? You may have noticed when Theresa May done her last U-turn it was highlighted by even the BBC. It would be like that but tenfold.

Personally, I'm quite comfortable with politicians doing u-turns . The whole macho ' we are not for turning' is bollocks.

As I've said before, changing your mind is a sign of intelligence, however .........with regard to Sturgeon the problem is that I, and many others, believe that you cannot listen to her speak on any issue or subject without knowing she is calculating how it fits in with her ultimate aim of Indy. Therefore her mind is always deflected from the task at hand.

She needs to prove she can run the devolved Gov't effectively and within it's well publicised constraints before she will ever deserve the right and privilege of running and Indy Scotland.

[McSpreader]

4 hours ago, O'Kelly Isley III said:

Explain......

Head in the sand!

Is this why they call you Ostrich O'Kelly ?

[O'Kelly Isley III]

Head in the sand!
Is this why they call you Ostrich O'Kelly ?

That isn't going to work. A lot of the fish exported is high quality fish which goes to the international market where as we import a whole lot of lesser quality fish for use in ready meals, fish fingers and the like.
Scottish fishermen won't be able to provide for that market at current prices and will face tariffs to export into other markets which means their whole industry will be devalued by Brexit.

As Denis Healey once said, it's like being savaged by a dead sheep.

[strichener]

24 minutes ago, Jim McLean's Ghost said:

That isn't going to work. A lot of the fish exported is high quality fish which goes to the international market where as we import a whole lot of lesser quality fish for use in ready meals, fish fingers and the like.

Scottish fishermen won't be able to provide for that market at current prices and will face tariffs to export into other markets which means their whole industry will be devalued by Brexit.

Sorry but the import and export statistics do not back you up.  We import fish at an average of £3925 per tonne an export at £3018 per tonne.  This also completely ignores that we are re-importing fish that has been caught in the UK EEZ.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Explain......

You'll have a long wait.

Take out the no IndyRef2 argument and they can't give one good reason for voting for their unionist party.

[McSpreader]

2 hours ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

You'll have a long wait.

Take out the no IndyRef2 argument and they can't give one good reason for voting for their unionist party.

I can. 

[John Lambies Doos]

I can. 

Maybe you should become a politician?

[Billy Jean King]

Sorry but the import and export statistics do not back you up.  We import fish at an average of £3925 per tonne an export at £3018 per tonne.  This also completely ignores that we are re-importing fish that has been caught in the UK EEZ.

Those figures are skewed by the fact that the fish we import are largely in a processed state and hence the added cost. The value pound for pound of exported unprocessed fish is considerably greater than that imported. Filleted , sea frozen Icelandic cod loin is imported as that is what the UK market wants. Compared to a raw UK caught whole fish it's expensive. A lot of the fish caught in our waters has to be exported as it's just not eaten enough here. There is very little market for Hake, Prawns, Scallops, Monkfish etc in the UK, all we want is cod, haddock and farmed salmon. Walk into any fishmongers or supermarket fish counter and it will be "cod loin". This is the strip of meet above the ribcage and constitutes a fraction of the weight of a fish. As a consequence you need cod of a large size and there simply are not enough big cod in UK waters to satisfy demand. Post Brexit the fishing industry in the UK are going to have to try to reeducate the UK consumer or continue to import fish at what will be an unsustainable rate while facing probable export tariffs when trying to export the fish they can catch but for which there is no demand in the UK. The UK fishing industry needs tariffs free access to overseas markets, primarily the EU. All this also precludes that access to UK waters will be very likely a bargaining chip in the Brexit deal.