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GE 2017 - predictions & likely outcome.


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Scotland : think there will be a few surprises all over the country, but the SNP should retain the bulk of seats. I'll no doubt change my mind in a few days, and probably give it another go and try get the numbers down to a proper number :

Tories (6-8) - Mundell will hold his plus they'll pick up the other two 'Borders' seats. Aberdeenshire West/Kincardine most likely a Tory gain (although where have all those ex Libs gone?) if they returned, the SNP could well hold it. I think the Tories will fail to take Moray and Perth. Although they'll pick up another couple of seats, Ochill/South Perthshire maybe? Not sure about East Renfrewshire as Labour have a reasonably high-profile candidate standing there. 

Labour (1-4) - no logic in this, but I think Labour might well take some of their west-coast seats back. No idea where - although they did well in Inverclyde, Cumbernauld and East Lothian in the local elections - you could argue that means the Tories will win Perth, Angus, etc - and it's a different election. I think Ian Murray might well lose his seat though. 

Libs (1-5) - Hopefully Carmichael is unseated although not thinking it will happen, but not heard much about the campaign up there ; but if they didn't vote SNP back in 2015, I can't imagine the SNP will win this time. And whilst he is unpopular with many in Scotland, is he disliked as much up there? The two gains - Edinburgh West plus somewhere else - NE Fife? Caithness? Skye? Dunbartonshire?

SNP (40-47) - a lot will depend on the turnout, and if the SNP can get 45% plus of the vote then it'll be a very good night and it'll more than 50 returned you'd imagine. There are a few three-ways e.g East Renfrewshire; Edinburgh South; and if enough Tory students fancy their chances, North East Fife. All three could favour the SNP if they get the vote out, and the unionist parties vote splits evenly and you'd hope some natural Tories fancy voting for their lot to split the vote. Likewise West Aberdeenshire seems destined according to most and the bookie 1/5 Tory, but where are those 12,000 Lib Dem voters going? I think there will be some scalps though although I believe and hope that Robertson will win in Moray, and I think whilst it'll be tight, Wishart should keep his seat too in Perth. 

 

 

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9 minutes ago, virginton said:

 


Oh but there are.

 

Haha,

I've heard this before from someone in 'real-life' who doesn't class the Dumfries as the borders.

It fucking well is. Take a look at a map - the south of the constituency borders England. 

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3 hours ago, Kejan said:

Haha,

I've heard this before from someone in 'real-life' who doesn't class the Dumfries as the borders.

It fucking well is. Take a look at a map - the south of the constituency borders England. 

Quite simply wrong.

The Dumfries and Galloway constituency does not touch the border.

Only two Scottish constituencies do. 

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I reckon it will end up something like this

SNP-50

Lib Dems- 4 (Edin West, East Dunbarton, North East Fife, Argyll and Bute or O&S, probably the former)

Tories-3 (Aberdeenshire somewhere and the borders)

Labour-2 (Edinburgh South maybe, and East Renfrewshire)

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Re: Orkney and Shetland seat... SNP have a much better candidate this time round (twenty something that grew up in Shetland and a bit more political savvy).

Carmichael is also not as popular as Tavish Scott who is the MSP for Shetland (I could easily see there being folk who voted Lib Dems for Holyrood but would go SNP for Westminster).

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5 hours ago, ChrisMFCfan1886 said:

I reckon it will end up something like this

Lib Dems- 4 (Edin West, East Dunbarton, North East Fife, Argyll and Bute or O&S, probably the former)

 

17 minutes ago, The Holiday Song said:

Re: Orkney and Shetland seat... SNP have a much better candidate this time round (twenty something that grew up in Shetland and a bit more political savvy).

Carmichael is also not as popular as Tavish Scott who is the MSP for Shetland (I could easily see there being folk who voted Lib Dems for Holyrood but would go SNP for Westminster).

Probably more chance that Libdems will hold O&S than regain A&B in my opinion.

I expect (Tory) Gary Mulvanney to beat (Libdem) Alan Reid to a poor second place.

Incumbent Brendan O'Hara (SNP) will win by a good few thousand though

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Quite simply wrong.
The Dumfries and Galloway constituency does not touch the border.
Only two Scottish constituencies do. 


You do not have directly adjoin the border to be in 'the Borders'. Peebles is some 44 miles from England yet is unquestionably located in 'the Borders'. Whereas Dumfries is just 36 miles from Carlisle.

Your status will be underlined when the bumpkin locals vote Tory just like the neighboring, wannabe-England constituencies throughout the Borders on June 8.

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9 hours ago, virginton said:

 


You do not have directly adjoin the border to be in 'the Borders'. Peebles is some 44 miles from England yet is unquestionably located in 'the Borders'. Whereas Dumfries is just 36 miles from Carlisle.

Your status will be underlined when the bumpkin locals vote Tory just like the neighboring, wannabe-England constituencies throughout the Borders on June 8.
 

 

I was responding to the claim that all three of the most southern Scottish constituencies touch the border, as justification for saying they were in the Borders.  

Clearly, they don't and clearly, your prejudice laden justification is yet flimsier.

I hope your prediction for Thursday is out, but on that we'll have to wait and see.

Either way though, the geography of the place won't be altered.  Neither I fear though, will be the shouty ignorance you share with plenty others on here.

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1 hour ago, virginton said:

You claimed that it wasn't a 'Borders constituency' when that is demonstrably the case. Hard lines.

1496581103402.jpg

And yet it demonstrably is not.

If we employ your 'Peebles' logic of selecting a town and using its proximity to the border as evidence, we'll need to declare each Glasgow seat a Borders one too, as they're all closer to said border than, say, Stranraer.

 

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No we wouldn't. Peebles in the Borders. Its constituency is therefore a Borders constituency. Dumfries and its surroundings are in the Borders and so the same rule applies.

This isn't the first time that you've a meltdown about the basic geographic facts of your locale; perhaps you should move. Not really my problem though.

1496585765774.jpg

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42 minutes ago, virginton said:

No we wouldn't. Peebles in the Borders. Its constituency is therefore a Borders constituency. Dumfries and its surroundings are in the Borders and so the same rule applies.

This isn't the first time that you've a meltdown about the basic geographic facts of your locale; perhaps you should move. Not really my problem though.

1496585765774.jpg
 

You're not making any sense here.

Dumfries is not in the Borders and your only remaining argument seems to be to simply insist that it is, while posting a picture of a TV chef with a cake.

As admissions of defeat go, yours is comprehensive.

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You're not making any sense here.
Dumfries is not in the Borders and your only remaining argument seems to be to simply insist that it is, while posting a picture of a TV chef with a cake.
As admissions of defeat go, yours is comprehensive.

What's the local ITV station for Dumfries called again?

[emoji56]
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35 minutes ago, H Wragg said:


What's the local ITV station for Dumfries called again?

emoji56.png

Border.

Where are we heading here?  Are you going to be to forced to claim that the Isle of Man is therefore also in the borders?

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8 minutes ago, Monkey Tennis said:

Border.

Where are we heading here?  Are you going to be to forced to claim that the Isle of Man is therefore also in the borders?

Or that parts of Ayrshire are in Ulster?

(memories of going to Big Sister's in Irvine to see the FA Cup Final live)

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