GE 2017 - predictions & likely outcome.

[ICTChris]

3 minutes ago, renton said:

It'd be highly amusing if the Tories came out with the exact same majority they went in with.

Every single seat held by the incumbent would be hilarious.

[renton]

Just now, ICTChris said:

Every single seat held by the incumbent would be hilarious.

I suppose the serious point is that May coming out with a majority equal to or less than she has currently is a bit of a fucker for her. Given the reasons stated for calling it were to give her a big personal mandate to stop others opposing her, actually failing to get a bigger majority would majorly erode her authority.

[DrewDon]

80-100+ seat Tory majority. Tories to win somewhere between 8 and 12 seats in Scotland, with the Lib Dems picking up a couple and Labour clinging on in Edinburgh South - SNP to take the rest. Hope I'm wrong and being overly pessimistic on basically all counts. 

[Monkey Tennis]

21 minutes ago, renton said:

It'd be highly amusing if the Tories came out with the exact same majority they went in with.

It would, but I can't see it.

I think May will just get away with a result good enough from her viewpoint, to be able to spin that it justifies having had an election.  It won't be as emphatic however, as was anticipated when she called it.

[BerwickMad]

Unfortunately the Tories with 350-375 and an increased majority. It would be hilarious to see them try and spin a hung parliament or any majority less than they currently have.

I think it would be the end of May tbh. She's run a horrendous campaign. They're probably all frantically trying to decide whether to concentrate on Brexit or Corbyn/IRA. If it's the later, I think they'll complete the f**k up.

[Thistle_do_nicely]

32 minutes ago, Colkitto said:

Would absolute love it if the Tories were the largest party and the SNP put Corbyn in as PM. Along with a raft of powers to the Scottish parliament (including a permanent Section 30 to hold a legally binding referendum when ever we chose).

That should throw not only the Tories in Scotland over the edge, but also Blairite Labour members like Dugdale. Add England seethe at Nicola holding the strings!

Beautiful though a permanent section 30 would be, and i may be misreading the tone of your post so apologies if so, but would a time restriction of some sort not make that an easier sell i.e. a referendum on indy could not be called within say five years and a day from a prior No vote in such a referendum? Or come to an agreement to hold a second indyref sooner than 2019 but if its a no vote again then change it so that a further referendum can take place no sooner than ten years?)

[DublinMagyar]

Beautiful though a permanent section 30 would be, and i may be misreading the tone of your post so apologies if so, but would a time restriction of some sort not make that an easier sell i.e. a referendum on indy could not be called within say five years and a day from a prior No vote in such a referendum? Or come to an agreement to hold a second indyref sooner than 2019 but if its a no vote again then change it so that a further referendum can take place no sooner than ten years?)

Wouldn't be possible. The opposite of democracy.

[John Lambies Doos]

Would absolute love it if the Tories were the largest party and the SNP put Corbyn in as PM. Along with a raft of powers to the Scottish parliament (including a permanent Section 30 to hold a legally binding referendum when ever we chose).
That should throw not only the Tories in Scotland over the edge, but also Blairite Labour members like Dugdale. Add England seethe at Nicola holding the strings!

That would be beautiful mate, just beautiful

[Antlion]

2 hours ago, Thistle_do_nicely said:

Beautiful though a permanent section 30 would be, and i may be misreading the tone of your post so apologies if so, but would a time restriction of some sort not make that an easier sell i.e. a referendum on indy could not be called within say five years and a day from a prior No vote in such a referendum? Or come to an agreement to hold a second indyref sooner than 2019 but if its a no vote again then change it so that a further referendum can take place no sooner than ten years?)

It really boggles the mind that allowing a country to have referenda when its people elect a party pledging one is a hard sell in this family of nations. Scotland really does appear a joke of a country when you see what it can't do in relation to what sovereign states would be horrified at not being permitted to do.

[Colkitto]

2 hours ago, Thistle_do_nicely said:

Beautiful though a permanent section 30 would be, and i may be misreading the tone of your post so apologies if so, but would a time restriction of some sort not make that an easier sell i.e. a referendum on indy could not be called within say five years and a day from a prior No vote in such a referendum? Or come to an agreement to hold a second indyref sooner than 2019 but if its a no vote again then change it so that a further referendum can take place no sooner than ten years?)

What I'm suggesting is a permanent transfer of powers to the Scottish parliament from Westminster to hold a referendum on Scottish Independence. This of course, would be voted through democratically by the elected parliament and put to the people of Scotland to decide. 

To be honest, it's an absolute affront to democracy that the very people who would have a vote in this process have to wait until the members of a completely separate parliament give their consent for us to hold one.

The fact that we now find ourselves in a situation where our parliament has voted to have a referendum but the leader of the government in power at Westminster has said basically "not now, when we see fit, as we don't agree with what you want to do" should make all of us living in Scotland incandescent with rage!

This is about democracy, plain and simple. It should be up to the people of Scotland and our Scottish parliament to decide our constitutional future - no one else! 

[Ned Nederlander]

I've been a floating voter over the years, I've voted in 7 General Elections, 3 Tory votes, 2 Labour, 1 Lib Dem & 1 SNP and I've always gone for who I personally thought was the best to represent where I've lived at that particular time (my 3 Tory votes were cast in England)

I think the SNP are going to go sub 50 seats, this will be down to a flag, folk will try to unseat the likes of Angus Robertson because they like a flag. I genuinely can't see past the policies and politics of the SNP in Scotland, the Tories offer absolutely nothing ... but a flag.

SNP 48

Tory 7

Lib Dems 2

Labour 2

 

Now that is still a trouncing, it gives the SNP four times that of the others, but it will be spun as a crushing defeat.

 

I've read a Unionist site where a prediction of 48 seats saw 'sad faces' in return, many Unionists appear to be expecting a Tory win in Scotland, I think if my prediction is anywhere near the mark than there will be a good few disappointed flag supporters.

[cdhafc1874]

Tories - 3 Borders seats, West Aberdeenshire, East Ren & a few other surprise ones sadly (possibly taking out Angus [emoji20] ) = 10
Labour - Murray holds & take East Lothian = 2
Lib Dems - Orkney/Shetland, Caithness, NE Fife, Edin West & East Dun = 5

Leaving SNP with 42
I'm a SNP member so I bloody well hope I'm wrong but I have a horrible feeling about this.

I fear our voter base won't come out & the unionist voters will.

[itzdrk]

The huge tory majority we presumed when it was called before the 'pollsters' decided to make it interesting

[Kyle]

Tory majority of 50. 

 

SNP 47 Tories 7 Lib Dems  3 Labour 2 

 

 

[Paco]

Labour to increase vote share but lose seats, I think. SNP to hold virtually all seats in Scotland, one or two losses is ultimately irrelevant.

[Bully Wee Villa]

Late swing to the Tories from uttercunts. Just as there is nearly always a late swing to the right in British votes.

Tories to get a majority over 50. Labour to lose lots. Lib Dems to lose one or two.

Scotland: SNP 55, Tories 3, Lib Dem 1.

[Fide]

4 hours ago, Bully Wee Villa said:

Late swing to the Tories from uttercunts. Just as there is nearly always a late swing to the right in British votes.

Tories to get a majority over 50. Labour to lose lots. Lib Dems to lose one or two.

Scotland: SNP 55, Tories 3, Lib Dem 1.

I can see this being pretty much bang on.  History has shown there's a swing to the opposition about two weeks before an election, but then the stupid electorate, in the main, shite it on election day and vote for the incumbent.

BTW, all this talk of circa 45 SNP seats?  Not gonnae happen.

[Monkey Tennis]

8 hours ago, cdisaaccie said:

Tories - 3 Borders seats, West Aberdeenshire, East Ren & a few other surprise ones sadly (possibly taking out Angus ) = 10
Labour - Murray holds & take East Lothian = 2
Lib Dems - Orkney/Shetland, Caithness, NE Fife, Edin West & East Dun = 5

Leaving SNP with 42
I'm a SNP member so I bloody well hope I'm wrong but I have a horrible feeling about this.

I fear our voter base won't come out & the unionist voters will.

There aren't three "Borders seats".

[Mr Heliums]

15 hours ago, BerwickMad said:

Unfortunately the Tories with 350-375 and an increased majority. It would be hilarious to see them try and spin a hung parliament or any majority less than they currently have.

I think it would be the end of May tbh. She's run a horrendous campaign. They're probably all frantically trying to decide whether to concentrate on Brexit or Corbyn/IRA. If it's the later, I think they'll complete the f**k up.

I think May has been fatally damaged irrespective of how successful the Tories campaign turns out to be. I think it's shown her up as what many of us here suspected she was: sclerotic, stubborn, paranoid and unable to think on her feet or engage in debate and discussion. Nobody can now seriously think she'll do well in Brexit negotiations, irrespective of the majority in Parliament behind her.

[Mr Heliums]

1 hour ago, Fide said:

I can see this being pretty much bang on. 

Would love it to be, but can't see the repugnant Carmichael losing, nor can I see even the horrendous Jardine throwing away the gift that is Edinburgh West. So that's two Lib Dems straight away.