ICTChris Posted April 22, 2017 Share Posted April 22, 2017 Survation poll numbersScottish Westminster voting intention:SNP: 43% (-7)CON: 28% (+13)LAB: 18% (-6)LDEM: 9% (+1)(via Survation / chgs with GE2015) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Master Posted April 22, 2017 Share Posted April 22, 2017 I wouldn't be surprised if the Tories in Scotland end up like UKIP in England in 2015 - a high national percentage and coming second in loads of seats. But I do think they'll win around half a dozen seats. Labour to get zilch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael W Posted April 22, 2017 Share Posted April 22, 2017 I like Curtice but can't quite see how the Tories will get 12 seats. I expect them to hold Mundell's, gain BRS and quite possibly take Dumfries as well, but then we start running into "maybe" territory. East Ren is a good shout, as is the Kincardine seat (Can't remember it's full name) that they won at Holyrood. But, then what? That's 5, and then the bar is set very high - which other seats look vulnerable - Moray? Banff and Buchan? Angus? Stretching it a bit out there, I'd say. I can't see an Edinburgh seat or one of the Ayr seats going blue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Master Posted April 22, 2017 Share Posted April 22, 2017 18 minutes ago, Michael W said: I like Curtice but can't quite see how the Tories will get 12 seats. He'll have undoubtedly caveated it by saying that if the voting is uniform across the country etc. etc. But the papers don't report that - they just pick up on the headline seat figure. The only poll worth listening to is the exit poll. It uses a far more sophisticated methodology that's more than simply asking people how they voted as they leave the polling station (past voting patterns are taken into account). That in turn is what allows it to make accurate seat projections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrewDon Posted April 22, 2017 Share Posted April 22, 2017 Scotland Votes is projecting that the Tories would have 8 seats - Robertson and Wishart would be amongst the casualties, if so. A certain amount of scepticism is necessary, though - this is just one poll. If similar projections are being made 3 or 4 weeks down the line and a trend begins to emerge, I might start to get a bit concerned. It might be helpful in crystallising the choice in the minds of the Scottish electorate between the SNP and the Tories, I suppose - although this admittedly could cut both ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sooky Posted April 22, 2017 Share Posted April 22, 2017 The second of tonight's Scottish polls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HTG Posted April 22, 2017 Share Posted April 22, 2017 I still think the SNP will emerge with a fantastic result and could repeat or improve on 56. Surely to f**k Scotland is better than being taken in by the fucking shitebag that is Teresa May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mizfit Posted April 23, 2017 Share Posted April 23, 2017 SNP to retain 50. Tories to gain the rest, Lib Dems to retain the islands seat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted April 23, 2017 Share Posted April 23, 2017 6 hours ago, mizfit said: SNP to retain 50. Tories to gain the rest, Lib Dems to retain the islands seat. Sounds about right. If the Tories are scooping up a lot of Labour votes from last time around then they will disproprtionately benefit in the central belt rather than rural areas where the Scotland Votes calculator is predicting they will win seats, which will limit their gains a bit. The Lib Dems will be in with a shout on NE Fife, East Dunbartonshire and Edinburgh West and maybe Labour also in East Lothian if they can persuade Tory voters that they have the better chance but more polling numbers like these and I doubt that's happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elixir Posted April 23, 2017 Share Posted April 23, 2017 It will be nauseating seeing the Scotland haters and Conservative British Nationalists stroking their wee maggots over picking up half a dozen seats and claiming it proves Scotland doesn't want another referendum... even though the SNP will still hoover up about 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Antlion Posted April 23, 2017 Share Posted April 23, 2017 6 minutes ago, Elixir said: It will be nauseating seeing the Scotland haters and Conservative British Nationalists stroking their wee maggots over picking up half a dozen seats and claiming it proves Scotland doesn't want another referendum... even though the SNP will still hoover up about 50. The question is what Tory MPs can actually offer voters in Scotland in terms of constituency administration and policy, other than a dedication to fighting against Scotland's self-determination and sovereignty. Of course, I doubt the No Surrender bunch are thinking beyond "Scotland must remain a region at any cost". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mizfit Posted April 23, 2017 Share Posted April 23, 2017 They can't offer anything, the Tories know they'll be hoovering up Labours union at all cost votes this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elixir Posted April 23, 2017 Share Posted April 23, 2017 They're also picking up some of the no-voting punters who voted SNP last time to obliterate Labour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Highland Capital Posted April 23, 2017 Share Posted April 23, 2017 36 minutes ago, Elixir said: They're also picking up some of the no-voting punters who voted SNP last time to obliterate Labour. This is a good point. I seem to recollect polls showing the past that No voting SNP voters in elections was around 8%ish. Seems to be a similar number they'll be losing this time around which isn't a huge surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotThePars Posted April 23, 2017 Share Posted April 23, 2017 The Tories will probably poll well on account of it being the only unionist party that isn't crashing and burning and also being the only realistic option for the 38% of Scots that voted for Brexit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glenconner Posted April 23, 2017 Share Posted April 23, 2017 SNP 46 Tories 10 LibDems 2 Labour 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glen Sannox Posted April 23, 2017 Share Posted April 23, 2017 I still think the SNP will emerge with a fantastic result and could repeat or improve on 56. Surely to f**k Scotland is better than being taken in by the fucking shitebag that is Teresa May. As opposed to being taken in by the "fucking shitebag" that is Nicola Sturgeon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mizfit Posted April 23, 2017 Share Posted April 23, 2017 Glen Minter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjw Posted April 23, 2017 Share Posted April 23, 2017 As opposed to being taken in by the "fucking shitebag" that is Nicola Sturgeon? Not sure she's standing in this election though.Glen Minter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Im_Rodger Posted April 23, 2017 Share Posted April 23, 2017 SNP 47Conservative 10Liberal Democrats 2Labour 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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