Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence

[NotThePars]

6 hours ago, harry94 said:

It's a google survey so I'd take it with a pinch of salt but there is some sort of scientific methodology in it so won't completely dismiss. It does imply that a referendum is more likely to switch people's votes than the EU. You would imagine that the sort of shift that would see is in line with the prediction for a Conservative revival which is predicted by reputable pollsters.

What I find really interesting though is the 27% don't know if they will change their vote (but the don't know value recorded is 4.7%). That's quite a vast number of people who could be swayed and consistently, over the last ten years, the SNP have had a media operation that far exceeds anything else and tends to pick up those loose votes in the late stages. I'm not sure they've got a message yet but if they manage to form a cohesive message on the shitfest that is Theresa May's negotiating skills (destroying the 'strong and stable' myth that they peddle), they can still take a substantial win.

I'd imagine that the Green vote of 8.4% indicates that they've overestimated the younger age bracket or is just the same sort of issue where people always pledge to vote Green in the polling but that changes closer to the time (thanks FPTP). If it's the later, that's quite good news for the SNP as that is likely to break for them.

 

Obviously taking the current polls with a massive pinch of salt but if the omnishambles that is the current Labour Party can make inroads in the polls when the choice is between an incompetent at war with itself Labour versus this Tory government then the SNP should feel very confident in a future referendum campaign.

[Colkitto]

16 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

There really isn't any science in any polls.

It's all guess work and includes one factor which can never be accounted for - humans.

Humans cannot be trusted and therefore the entire base on which the data is being interpreted is nothing more than sand.

You are kidding yourself if you think it is more credible than that.

I don't know how many more times the polls have to be embarassingly wrong before we realise it's all bollox

As an outsider, what do you think of the human race? 

[Crùbag]

10 hours ago, harry94 said:

It's a google survey so I'd take it with a pinch of salt but there is some sort of scientific methodology in it so won't completely dismiss. It does imply that a referendum is more likely to switch people's votes than the EU. You would imagine that the sort of shift that would see is in line with the prediction for a Conservative revival which is predicted by reputable pollsters.

What I find really interesting though is the 27% don't know if they will change their vote (but the don't know value recorded is 4.7%). That's quite a vast number of people who could be swayed and consistently, over the last ten years, the SNP have had a media operation that far exceeds anything else and tends to pick up those loose votes in the late stages. I'm not sure they've got a message yet but if they manage to form a cohesive message on the shitfest that is Theresa May's negotiating skills (destroying the 'strong and stable' myth that they peddle), they can still take a substantial win.

I'd imagine that the Green vote of 8.4% indicates that they've overestimated the younger age bracket or is just the same sort of issue where people always pledge to vote Green in the polling but that changes closer to the time (thanks FPTP). If it's the later, that's quite good news for the SNP as that is likely to break for them.

I'm not up on Google survey methodology though from what I know of You Gov's it seems as if the perfect method is hard to come by.

Probably worth bearing in mind that many of these polls don't count 16-17 years (or even 15 yos who could vote in Indyref2) or perhaps EU citizens who can't vote in GE17. As to taking Indyref2 into account - that's a huge issue for me but I'm obviously for another Indyref and agree with the timescale set out by the Scot Gov.

Suffice to say, the pro-Indy vote is still gaining ground albeit slowly. I'd expect that to continue to increase as May's Brexit strategy becomes even more chaotic. The current Brexit dinner row is a taste of what's to come. The leaders in WM are as incompetent as they are corrupt.

[topcat(The most tip top)]

I don't know how many more times the polls have to be embarassingly wrong before we realise it's all bollox

I can't give you a precise figure as it would depend on the corresponding number of times they were either right or wrong in a non-embarrassing way

Of course that does kind of rely on you retaining some respect for the value of statistical sampling.

If you don't then you're free to just pick any number you like but you're liable to find yourself in an epistemological rabbit warren made of custard.

[BFTD]

12 hours ago, oaksoft said:

I am an advocate of the SISO philosophy. Put shit in and you get shit out.

We've noticed.

[topcat(The most tip top)]

Its not statistical sampling per se I have a problem with. It can be used in a wide variety of situations to lesser or greater effect. Good examples are the recorded percentages of impurities in chemical compounds coming off the production line or the variation in screw thread size.
It is when you have human opinions as the data that it becomes almost worthless. To then attempt to intepret that worthless data to gain meaningful insight is a complete waste of time and money.
I am an advocate of the SISO philosophy. Put shit in and you get shit out.

This is a seductive yet fallacious oversimplification resting on a false dichotomy between "useful" and "useless" information.

[NotThePars]

That's an interesting philosophy. Who pioneered it? Nietzsche? Kant?

[DublinMagyar]

not a doctor

[topcat(The most tip top)]

That's an interesting philosophy. Who pioneered it? Nietzsche? Kant?

Who you calling a Kant?

[topcat(The most tip top)]

The qualtiy of the Information was not the point. I was talking about the trustworthiness of the raw data.
If the raw data is worthless, and it almost always is when human opinions are involved, there is no "information" to be gleaned. You may as well not bother with the analysis.

Leaving aside the way that in replacing "quality" with "trustworthiness" you're merely reframing the same fallacy there's a more unsettling thing here.

If taken to it's logical conclusion then not only does this line force us to conclude that asking humans for their opinions is worthless in terms of predicting the results of elections but it would render those elections themselves meaningless

After all what is an election but a huge gathering of data on people's opinions.

[Kyle]

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 48% (+2)
LAB: 24% (-)
LDEM: 11% (-)
UKIP: 7% (-1)

(via @TNS_UK / 27 Apr - 02 May)

 

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 48% (+4)
LAB: 29% (-2)
LDEM: 10% (-1)
UKIP: 5% (-1)

(via @YouGov / 02 - 03 May)
Chgs. w/ 28 Apr

Absolute dug shite. 

Edited May 3, 2017 by Kyle

[John Lambies Doos]

Westminster voting intention:
CON: 48% (+2)
LAB: 24% (-)
LDEM: 11% (-)
UKIP: 7% (-1)
(via @TNS_UK / 27 Apr - 02 May)
 
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 48% (+4)
LAB: 29% (-2)
LDEM: 10% (-1)
UKIP: 5% (-1)
(via @YouGov / 02 - 03 May)
Chgs. w/ 28 Apr
Absolute dug shite. 

Man. Britain is just fukin awful. The people are lapping up the them vs us shite being spouted by may

[Londonwell]

44 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said:

 

Man. Britain is just fukin awful. The people are lapping up the them vs us shite being spouted by may

 

There's no hope for rUK, I mean I've given up hope anyway. 

We're the last part of Britain that at least still has a chance of choosing a different path. I believe when the time comes, we will take that chance. 

[vikingTON]

UKIP's vote is disappearing like snow off a dyke and is mostly returning to its natural home on the Tory far right. Can't believe some people didn't that see coming. No idea why we're supposed to be rooting for a mumbleclown comeback, given the absolute mess of a shadow Cabinet he has put together and Labour's own, vile brand of British nationalism.

A thumping Tory majority in London and a thorough humiliation of the Labour left will be sufficient to achieve independence IMO. England can solve its own problems. 

[Guest]

I hope so.

I still fear Scotland is still top to bottom with far too many eat yer cereal wallopers but hopefully the clusterfuck that will follow a thumping Tory majority would be enough to see it over the line. 

[Colkitto]

UKiP voters jumping to Tory in England and Labour voters in Scotland jumping to Tory, there is only one option - get us out of this Union! 

Edited May 4, 2017 by Colkitto

[Kyle]

56 minutes ago, virginton said:

UKIP's vote is disappearing like snow off a dyke and is mostly returning to its natural home on the Tory far right. Can't believe some people didn't that see coming. No idea why we're supposed to be rooting for a mumbleclown comeback, given the absolute mess of a shadow Cabinet he has put together and Labour's own, vile brand of British nationalism.

A thumping Tory majority in London and a thorough humiliation of the Labour left will be sufficient to achieve independence IMO. England can solve its own problems. 

I think it's even worse than that. The labour to UKIP people have not gone back to labour, they've jumped to the Tories. Inexplicably.

[renton]

7 minutes ago, Kyle said:

I think it's even worse than that. The labour to UKIP people have not gone back to labour, they've jumped to the Tories. Inexplicably.

UKIP ended up being a gateway drug to full on right wing fucknuttery.

[TonMan]

26 minutes ago, renton said:

UKIP ended up being a gateway drug to full on right wing fucknuttery.

Probably. Perhaps Labour folk who felt quite disillusioned but wouldn't vote Tory switching to UKIP instead, before abandoning UKIP when the Tories starting expressing a lot of views which were sort of similar to what UKIP were saying anyway.

[NotThePars]

I know I've accused the above poster of having a 19th century attitude but I didn't know he still lived there. Fair play.