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Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence


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Corbyn not doing as badly as expected will have both Tory and Labour people with their head in their hands.

Tories worried the gamble of an election may not come off as they would have liked and Labour lining up to over-throw Corbyn after the expected electoral disaster.

Best we can hope for is a reduced majority for the Tories or a hung parliament which would just be incredible, especially if there is no "Lib-dem fightback" and Labour have to rely on the SNP  

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I take solace in the fact opposition polls have a tendency to peak a few weeks before an election...

IMG_1495450902.874640.jpg

Also, this is somewhat relevant I suppose:

IMG_1495450972.292462.jpg

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I think thoughts of a hung parliament are extremely fanciful. People seem to forget about the silent Torys who always slither out and vote. I remember someone on here making a fortune on a Conservative majority two years ago - the odds were good in the face of decent polling for Labour. My own feeling is that the, in terms of seats, there will be little movement. The best we can hope for is that the May doesn't increase her majority by more than a handful of seats.

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Welsh Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 44% (+9)

CON: 34% (-7)

PC: 9% (-2)

LDEM: 6% (-1)

UKIP: 5% (+1)

A 16 point swing from the Tories to Labour compared to the last Wales only poll. The Tories have made an utter mess of what should have been a complete cake walk.

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12 minutes ago, Kyle said:

Welsh Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 44% (+9)

CON: 34% (-7)

PC: 9% (-2)

LDEM: 6% (-1)

UKIP: 5% (+1)

A 16 point swing from the Tories to Labour compared to the last Wales only poll. The Tories have made an utter mess of what should have been a complete cake walk.

Momentum is building. 

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It would be good to see a marginal seat poll, anyone know if they are being conducted? The swing seats are key. I fully expect a Tory majority, just not on the scale they expect, a reduced majority would be a dream, with May going for early election to back her Brexit stance, if a lower majority was returned (hypothetically) where would that leave her stance?

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22 minutes ago, DI Bruce Robertson said:

It would be good to see a marginal seat poll, anyone know if they are being conducted? The swing seats are key. I fully expect a Tory majority, just not on the scale they expect, a reduced majority would be a dream, with May going for early election to back her Brexit stance, if a lower majority was returned (hypothetically) where would that leave her stance?

We're kind of relying on Ashcroft for those. I think the snap election has caught a lot of pollsters on the hop.

Only one I've seen is Edinburgh South, which had the SNP on 30, Labour on 40... but with the greens (who aren't standing) on 7. The Tories had only made tiny gains there, which I doubt would be the case across Scotland.

 

 

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We're kind of relying on Ashcroft for those. I think the snap election has caught a lot of pollsters on the hop.
Only one I've seen is Edinburgh South, which had the SNP on 30, Labour on 40... but with the greens (who aren't standing) on 7. The Tories had only made tiny gains there, which I doubt would be the case across Scotland.
 
 

Thanks.
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4 hours ago, oaksoft said:

Sane people should be able to read these sorts of wild swings and instantly realise they are bollox and should be ignored.

The idea that this sort of swing is real is actually pretty obviously ridiculous.

Or perhaps the initial poll, which goes completely against the trend of history, is the outlier? ^_^

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