Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence

[DrewDon]

1 minute ago, Bedford White said:

Dont understand point 2. Labour in 2015 was the second party in majority of 2nd constituencies in Scotland. A big vote for the only UK socialist party with a chance of forming a govt harms the Tories at WM. Surely Scotland would prefer a socialist govt at WM than a Tory one. Corbyn gets a lot of stick from msm over brexit but returned a similar remain vote among Labour voters as Sturgeon did with SNP voters about two thirds. The current stalemate re brexit and indy referendum is not down to him.

Most polling that I have read suggests that Labour will likely win either one or two seats in Scotland; if they have a really poor night, they could potentially lose Edinburgh South and gain none. It is not totally inconceivable, however, that the Tories could climb into double figures. As a result, voting for Labour in a Scottish constituency which will likely be between the SNP and the Tories does not make the return of a Tory MP less likely, but more likely (under FPTP). With the electoral picture as it currently is in England and Wales, it is looking almost inevitable that the Tories will have a comfortable majority at Westminster regardless of how Scotland votes. Therefore, the primary consideration for left-leaning voters in Scotland has to be who is best placed to provide the most competent opposition to a Tory government. In my opinion, from what I have seen since 2015 (and I voted Labour at that election), the SNP is in a better position to oppose the Tories at Westminster more consistently and coherently over the next parliamentary term than (Scottish) Labour. 

Moreover, purely referencing data from 2015 is flawed. Labour won 41 Scottish seats in 2010, so it seemed to make sense in 2015 for the post-referendum Unionist tactical vote to side with Labour in a majority of constituencies. Much has changed since then, however; the Tories finished second at Holyrood last year, and they repeated the feat at the council elections just past. Whilst I'm never particularly keen on comparing results from different voting systems, it is beyond doubt that the picture has changed. As a result, the Unionist vote is now much more likely to go to the Tories rather than Labour. Even if Labour finished runners-up in a certain constituency in 2015, there is now every chance that they could be relegated to a distant third in June - so it is entirely legitimate to believe that voting for Labour in a Scottish constituency that is forecast to be between the SNP and the Tories would help the Tory cause more than damage it. 

[Bedford White]

10 minutes ago, Kyle said:

Labour have made themselves a unionist only party. They've made it perfectly clear any yes voter is not welcome - Thornberry said as much during question time in Edinburgh. I received literature for the recent council elections and all it mentioned was A VOTE FOR LABOUR IS A VOTE AGAINST A SECOND DIVISIVE REFERENDUM, with no mention of what they would do to improve the city. Scottish Labour don't deserve anything other than the utter shoeing that's coming their way. They've been out-union'd by the Tories in Scotland and offer absolutely no olive branches to people who voted yes in 2014 or support independence now. 

The SNP will never back the Tories. The argument saying that a vote for the SNP is a vote for the Tories is just complete shite for that very reason. Any SNP voter switching to labour in loads of parts of the country will help the Tories pinch seats, particularly in the borders, the North East, Perth and East Ren.

 

Obviously entrenched views on both sides. Shame really. Lived in Shetland, Aberdeen and my oldest son was born in Edinburgh. I am old enough to remember the Tartan Tories tag and SNP bringing Thatcher into power with the vote of no confidence in Callaghan. Politics is strange. We have the best socialist platform in terms of a manifesto in my lifetime and will be rejected by a Socialist nation.

[eez-eh]

Scottish Labour are an absolute gang, but they're not standing in this election.

[Kyle]

2 minutes ago, eez-eh said:

Scottish Labour are an absolute gang, but they're not standing in this election.

Well, that's me definitely voting for labour now.

[DrewDon]

Somebody better say something before the ballot papers are printed. 

[eez-eh]

26 minutes ago, Kyle said:

Well, that's me definitely voting for labour now.

 

20 minutes ago, DrewDon said:

Somebody better say something before the ballot papers are printed. 

Wut?

I'm not advocating voting for anyone, I don't even know who I'm voting for myself, merely picking up on some of the language used in this thread. You can save the sarky comments.

[Bedford White]

36 minutes ago, DrewDon said:

Most polling that I have read suggests that Labour will likely win either one or two seats in Scotland; if they have a really poor night, they could potentially lose Edinburgh South and gain none. It is not totally inconceivable, however, that the Tories could climb into double figures. As a result, voting for Labour in a Scottish constituency which will likely be between the SNP and the Tories does not make the return of a Tory MP less likely, but more likely (under FPTP). With the electoral picture as it currently is in England and Wales, it is looking almost inevitable that the Tories will have a comfortable majority at Westminster regardless of how Scotland votes. Therefore, the primary consideration for left-leaning voters in Scotland has to be who is best placed to provide the most competent opposition to a Tory government. In my opinion, from what I have seen since 2015 (and I voted Labour at that election), the SNP is in a better position to oppose the Tories at Westminster more consistently and coherently over the next parliamentary term than (Scottish) Labour. 

Moreover, purely referencing data from 2015 is flawed. Labour won 41 Scottish seats in 2010, so it seemed to make sense in 2015 for the post-referendum Unionist tactical vote to side with Labour in a majority of constituencies. Much has changed since then, however; the Tories finished second at Holyrood last year, and they repeated the feat at the council elections just past. Whilst I'm never particularly keen on comparing results from different voting systems, it is beyond doubt that the picture has changed. As a result, the Unionist vote is now much more likely to go to the Tories rather than Labour. Even if Labour finished runners-up in a certain constituency in 2015, there is now every chance that they could be relegated to a distant third in June - so it is entirely legitimate to believe that voting for Labour in a Scottish constituency that is forecast to be between the SNP and the Tories would help the Tory cause more than damage it. 

I respect your opinion. For me it is quite simple- one party in the UK has set out a clear socialist manifesto and it has the only chance of forming an alternative government. This is as even the leadership of the SNP has said is an election nothing to do with indy referendum. For people in Manchester, London, Liverpool, Newcastle, Sheffield, Leeds and all those other working class cities the votes in Edinburgh, Glasgow, Dundee, Aberdeen matter at this election.

[DrewDon]

1 minute ago, eez-eh said:

 

Wut?

I'm not advocating voting for anyone, I don't even know who I'm voting for myself, merely picking up on some of the language used in this thread. You can save the sarky comments.

It wasn't sarky. I was merely surprised that you don't think Scottish Labour is standing at this election. Every candidate who is standing for Labour in Scotland will be listed as a 'Scottish Labour Party' candidate. The reform package passed at 2016 UK conference granted Scottish Labour increased policy-making powers, including in reserved areas. Even before that, including in 2010 and 2015, Labour candidates in Scotland stood on a distinctive Scottish Labour manifesto. They are standing in this election. 

[Bedford White]

1 hour ago, Kyle said:

Labour have made themselves a unionist only party. They've made it perfectly clear any yes voter is not welcome - Thornberry said as much during question time in Edinburgh. I received literature for the recent council elections and all it mentioned was A VOTE FOR LABOUR IS A VOTE AGAINST A SECOND DIVISIVE REFERENDUM, with no mention of what they would do to improve the city. Scottish Labour don't deserve anything other than the utter shoeing that's coming their way. They've been out-union'd by the Tories in Scotland and offer absolutely no olive branches to people who voted yes in 2014 or support independence now. 

The SNP will never back the Tories. The argument saying that a vote for the SNP is a vote for the Tories is just complete shite for that very reason. Any SNP voter switching to labour in loads of parts of the country will help the Tories pinch seats, particularly in the borders, the North East, Perth and East Ren.

 

Given that Sturgeon and Salmond have said this election is nothing to do with independence then why would it impact on your vote. The mandate was in the 2016 Holyrood elections. This is a election between May and Corbyn at WM surely. Or was what the SNP leadership said disingenuous?

[eez-eh]

9 minutes ago, DrewDon said:

It wasn't sarky. I was merely surprised that you don't think Scottish Labour is standing at this election. Every candidate who is standing for Labour in Scotland will be listed as a 'Scottish Labour Party' candidate. The reform package passed at 2016 UK conference granted Scottish Labour increased policy-making powers, including in reserved areas. Even before that, including in 2010 and 2015, Labour candidates in Scotland stood on a distinctive Scottish Labour manifesto. They are standing in this election. 

Yes, the candidates will be members of Scottish Labour, hence why they'll brand themselves as that on the ballot paper. However they're standing to be elected for the wider UK party in the HoC. The manifesto released during the week is a UK-wide manifesto, and given time constraints I'd imagine it's unlikely there'll be a specific Scottish one.

Don't get me wrong, the state of Scottish Labour and their staunch, obsessed stance against independence that they never fail to remind us of whenever they receive airtime is still the main thing that puts me off voting for the wider UK party, but I also find it very hard to disagree with much that has been put forward by Corbyn, independence aside.

[Bedford White]

1 hour ago, DrewDon said:

Most polling that I have read suggests that Labour will likely win either one or two seats in Scotland; if they have a really poor night, they could potentially lose Edinburgh South and gain none. It is not totally inconceivable, however, that the Tories could climb into double figures. As a result, voting for Labour in a Scottish constituency which will likely be between the SNP and the Tories does not make the return of a Tory MP less likely, but more likely (under FPTP). With the electoral picture as it currently is in England and Wales, it is looking almost inevitable that the Tories will have a comfortable majority at Westminster regardless of how Scotland votes. Therefore, the primary consideration for left-leaning voters in Scotland has to be who is best placed to provide the most competent opposition to a Tory government. In my opinion, from what I have seen since 2015 (and I voted Labour at that election), the SNP is in a better position to oppose the Tories at Westminster more consistently and coherently over the next parliamentary term than (Scottish) Labour. 

Moreover, purely referencing data from 2015 is flawed. Labour won 41 Scottish seats in 2010, so it seemed to make sense in 2015 for the post-referendum Unionist tactical vote to side with Labour in a majority of constituencies. Much has changed since then, however; the Tories finished second at Holyrood last year, and they repeated the feat at the council elections just past. Whilst I'm never particularly keen on comparing results from different voting systems, it is beyond doubt that the picture has changed. As a result, the Unionist vote is now much more likely to go to the Tories rather than Labour. Even if Labour finished runners-up in a certain constituency in 2015, there is now every chance that they could be relegated to a distant third in June - so it is entirely legitimate to believe that voting for Labour in a Scottish constituency that is forecast to be between the SNP and the Tories would help the Tory cause more than damage it. 

As a left leaning voter can you genuinely say that Corbyn' s offer presents less opportunity for betterment to working class voters than the SNP manifesto and with a chance (1.5 million new voters registered + a potential slide on OAP tory votes due to social care policies etc) however slim to make a difference to everyone in the UK, including Scotland?

[Benjamin_Nevis]

1 hour ago, Bedford White said:

As a left leaning voter can you genuinely say that Corbyn' s offer presents less opportunity for betterment to working class voters than the SNP manifesto and with a chance (1.5 million new voters registered + a potential slide on OAP tory votes due to social care policies etc) however slim to make a difference to everyone in the UK, including Scotland?

No offence, but your last few posts perfectly demonstrate why Labour have been absolutely destroyed up here. Labour are so far behind in most Scottish constituencies that all voting for them will do is to split the SNP vote and pave the way for the Tory candidates. Labour's only chance is for Corbyn to get within about 30-odd seats of the Tories and look for the support of the other parties when it comes to voting against a minority Tory Government. However this is pie in the sky stuff anyway, Labour will likely get hammered in England to the extent that, as usual, the Scottish vote will make no difference. 

Frankly, given Labour's utter failure to be an effective opposition over the likes of eg, Welfare Reform, means I will likely never vote for them again in my lifetime. 

[Wee Willie]

6 hours ago, Bedford White said:

I respect your opinion. For me it is quite simple- one party in the UK has set out a clear socialist manifesto and it has the only chance of forming an alternative government. This is as even the leadership of the SNP has said is an election nothing to do with indy referendum. For people in Manchester, London, Liverpool, Newcastle, Sheffield, Leeds and all those other working class cities the votes in Edinburgh, Glasgow, Dundee, Aberdeen matter at this election.

Are you for real?
This so-called 'socialist' manifesto is determined to keep Trident and all its costs.
There is eff-all mention of reforming the HoL in this 'socialist' manifesto yet people like you are gulled into accepting this brand of quasi-socialism.

Just ask the true socialists like Scargill, Prescott, McConnell and Martin (this is sarcasm)

4 hours ago, kilbowie2002 said:

The people in those working class cities except London didn't really give two fucks about all the working people in Scotland when they voted to take us out of the EU against our will so why should voters up here care a single bit about them? Im voting SNP because they are the only real opposition and constantly fight for their constituencies.

[Bedford White]

5 hours ago, kilbowie2002 said:

The people in those working class cities except London didn't really give two fucks about all the working people in Scotland when they voted to take us out of the EU against our will so why should voters up here care a single bit about them? Im voting SNP because they are the only real opposition and constantly fight for their constituencies.

Would have been a good point but Manchester, Liverpool, Newcastle, Leeds all voted along with London to remain and given one third of all SNP voters voted to leave the EU, did they not give two fucks about working class people either?

[NotThePars]

Corbyn's manifesto is a belter and he's a top boy but my local candidate's barely even acknowledged him focusing instead on attacking the SNP at every turn. I would happily vote Labour if Slab wasn't so toxic and determined to undo any goodwill generated by Corbyn.

[Fide]

4 hours ago, jupe1407 said:

No offence, but your last few posts perfectly demonstrate why Labour have been absolutely destroyed up here. Labour are so far behind in most Scottish constituencies that all voting for them will do is to split the SNP vote and pave the way for the Tory candidates. Labour's only chance is for Corbyn to get within about 30-odd seats of the Tories and look for the support of the other parties when it comes to voting against a minority Tory Government. However this is pie in the sky stuff anyway, Labour will likely get hammered in England to the extent that, as usual, the Scottish vote will make no difference. 

Frankly, given Labour's utter failure to be an effective opposition over the likes of eg, Welfare Reform, means I will likely never vote for them again in my lifetime. 

Labour's habit of continual abstention throughout the last Government should NEVER be forgotten.

[John Lambies Doos]

I respect your opinion. For me it is quite simple- one party in the UK has set out a clear socialist manifesto and it has the only chance of forming an alternative government. This is as even the leadership of the SNP has said is an election nothing to do with indy referendum. For people in Manchester, London, Liverpool, Newcastle, Sheffield, Leeds and all those other working class cities the votes in Edinburgh, Glasgow, Dundee, Aberdeen matter at this election.

^Nonsense. Corbyns only chance of power is in coalition with a 50+SNP representation. Advocating SNP voters to vote Labour in Scotland will only sneak the Torys in in some marginals. It really is that simple. A vote for Labour in Scotland is a vote for the Torys
Use your vote wisely on June 8th. Vote SNP.

[Wee Willie]

6 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said:

 

^Nonsense. Corbyns only chance of power is in coalition with a 50+SNP representation. Advocating SNP voters to vote Labour in Scotland will only sneak the Torys in in some marginals. It really is that simple. A vote for Labour in Scotland is a vote for the Torys
Use your vote wisely on June 8th. Vote SNP.

 

Amen tae that

[madwullie]

1 hour ago, NotThePars said:

Corbyn's manifesto is a belter and he's a top boy but my local candidate's barely even acknowledged him focusing instead on attacking the SNP at every turn. I would happily vote Labour if Slab wasn't so toxic and determined to undo any goodwill generated by Corbyn.

Basically 

[Kyle]

Yougov (18/19 May)

English voting intentions (Change since 20/21 Apr)

CON 47% (-5%)
LAB 37% (+11%)
LD 10% (-3%)
UKIP 4% (-2%)
GRN 2% (-1%)

this is much better. Still not great, but that's the first time you can see a direct link between the Tory drop and labour rise in England.