June 8th General Election

[Granny Danger]

6 minutes ago, Bully Wee Villa said:

The Tory "hardliners" may still be there, but with a 100+ majority she can do what she likes.

 

My worry is she has called an election so as to be able to force through the most Daily Mail-friendly, vile form of Brexit without having to worry about protest votes from the few Tory MPs who aren't total arseholes.

 

 

You may be right, but the harder the Brecit the worse the aftershock will be.  As other European countries reject the far right the resolve will be stiffened to make an example of the UK - a 'no compromise' stance by May wil f**k the Tories in the longer term.

[mizfit]

Anyone else thinking the SNP will lose Mcgarry and that other suspended MP's seats, yet get Ian Murray's and Alistair Carmichael's?

[dogmc]

Anyone else thinking the SNP will lose Mcgarry and that other suspended MP's seats, yet get Ian Murray's and Alistair Carmichael's?

If they are standing against the suspended mps snp may still take them. Can defo see lib dems n slab being wiped out but I'd be amazed of the tories don't pick up 2 or 3 of the rural unionists seats.

[NotThePars]

1 minute ago, dogmc said:

If they are standing against the suspended mps snp may still take them. Can defo see lib dems n slab being wiped out but I'd be amazed of the tories don't pick up 2 or 3 of the rural unionists seats.

 

I'm sure they've announced the candidate standing in McGarry's seat already. 

[dogmc]

Been out for a walk and kept trying to work out what May thinks she will get out of this.
It won't make her negotiations with Europe any easier; the Tory hardliners will still be there and won't back down; the Tory remainers will still be there arguing their corner.
Does she really need a bigger majority to get the final deal done?  Am I missing something or looking at it too simplistically?

Agree....plus she has blown away her own arguments against indyref2.....labour were no opposition to her anyway. I don't see any real gain and if remainers down south organise themselves a hung parliament is a possibility.

[Mr Heliums]

3 minutes ago, mizfit said:

Anyone else thinking the SNP will lose Mcgarry and that other suspended MP's seats, yet get Ian Murray's and Alistair Carmichael's?

Michelle Thomson will lose her seat definitely. Would love Carmichael to be hounded out of office, but I can't see it. There will be the sort of polarisation of the vote we saw in the Holyrood elections this time around, so unless the argument is about Brexit, the Unionists will sneak a few seats.

[J_Stewart]

If May maintains the refusal to debate, the other parties should just agree to empty chair her, not mention it once from the moment it's arranged and then just use it as a platform to discuss their policies and not slaughter each other. Say 20 minutes each between SNP, Labour, Lib Dems and Greens. Would give the tories no publicity (like they did for Cameron in 2015) and wouldn't hurt any of the rest of them whilst getting their message across. Win-win.

Will never happen in a billion years of course.

[jmothecat]

No tv debates seemingly

Not too surprising. May seems to eschew the more showy side of politics, preferring tradition. I don't think she is very good at debates, whilst she may prove to be better than Corbyn I think she would come across badly compared with the competent leaders of the other parties.

[Shades75]

56 minutes ago, Mr.Bojangles said:

A similar outing to last time will be a mandate for a new Independece referendum. 

There's already a cast iron mandate for an independence referendum.

[Mr.Bojangles]

Just now, Shades75 said:

There's already a cast iron mandate for an independence referendum.

I agree, but May has stripped all of her arguments away. 

[Bully Wee Villa]

You may be right, but the harder the Brecit the worse the aftershock will be.  As other European countries reject the far right the resolve will be stiffened to make an example of the UK - a 'no compromise' stance by May wil f**k the Tories in the longer term.

You're making the assumption that voters will be voting based on reason and logic.

If that was the case, we wouldn't be burdened with Brexit in the first place.

I really hope I'm wrong, but I think she will go all out for a massively harsh deal, with the poor (as usual) and immigrants suffering the most. If she was even vaguely amenable to some sort of common sense approach to the negotiations, surely she would already have agreed that those EU citizens already resident in Britain would be allowed to stay?

[mjw]

Will Slab be able to find 59 candidates to stand in Scottish constituencies?

[Granny Danger]

10 minutes ago, Bully Wee Villa said:

 

You're making the assumption that voters will be voting based on reason and logic.

If that was the case, we wouldn't be burdened with Brexit in the first place.

I really hope I'm wrong, but I think she will go all out for a massively harsh deal, with the poor (as usual) and immigrants suffering the most. If she was even vaguely amenable to some sort of common sense approach to the negotiations, surely she would already have agreed that those EU citizens already resident in Britain would be allowed to stay?

 

Ultimately self-interest will prevail.  When it's clear that a hard Brexit has fucked our economy people will turn on the Tories even the same people who gave them the mandate.

The NHS, the care sector and the hospitality sector have already all said that they won't be able to function with migration cuts.

[dogmc]

Ultimately self-interest will prevail.  When it's clear that a hard Brexit has fucked our economy people will turn on the Tories even the same people who gave them the mandate.
The NHS, the care sector and the hospitality sector have already all said that they won't be able to function with migration cuts.

It'll be interesting to see how remainers down south vote. They potentially could deliver a bloody nose to may depending on how motivated they are and how strategically they vote. It's easy to forget that brexit was a relatively close vote n a lot of the remain constituencies were tory n a lot of leave were labour. Kippers could also throw a spanner in the works.

[glasgow-sheep]

EU seem to be making noises that the election will make negotiations easier. Guess they are presuming big tory majority

[Alan Stubbs]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	SNP	Calum Kerr[5]	20,145	36.6	+27.4
	Conservative	John Lamont[6]	19,817	36.0	+2.2
	Liberal Democrats	Michael Moore[6]	10,294	18.7	−26.7
	Labour	Kenryck Jones[7]	2,700	4.9	−5.3
	UKIP	Peter Neilson[7]	1,316

 

If the SNP are anywhere near the Tories odds-wise here when these get priced up, I'll be doing an almost literal mortgage job on the Tory in Berwickshire. The tactical vote will increasingly go to the Tories generally, particularly in seats where they start from second obviously. Throw in a wafer thin lead anyway and the SNP can forget about it.

Luckily the rest of the closer seats have Labour or Lib Dems as 2015's runner up and the tactical voting won't be so straight forward. The Beeb might have to find a way to get that Microsoft Paint wheel on the screen for a bit longer this time.

Love the idea of Carmichael or Fluffly losing but can't see it at all. I'd say Edinburgh South is the SNP's best bet for a gain.

There's "nothing to gain" for the SNP in terms of overall seats but it will be a good day for the Yes movement if they return another commanding majority of MPs. All the arguments against another referendum in the bin for the sake of a few MPs, I'm sure the SNP would take that.

My concern would be turnout and apathy as well. Last GE it was the Yes voters with a bit of fire in the belly, fancy the Unionists to be up for this one.

 

[Granny Danger]

13 minutes ago, glasgow-sheep said:

EU seem to be making noises that the election will make negotiations easier. Guess they are presuming big tory majority

Where are you seeing this?

[DrewDon]

[The Chlamydia Kid]

. If she was even vaguely amenable to some sort of common sense approach to the negotiations, surely she would already have agreed that those EU citizens already resident in Britain would be allowed to stay?

Just like the EU has agreed to let all UK nationals remain in the EU eh...

[mjw]

Just like the EU has agreed to let all UK nationals remain in the EU eh...

Justlikery.