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June 8th General Election


Mudder

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The only Scottish marginal they are likely to win is Berwickshire - the SNP will take Edinburgh South. Lib Dems will probably hold Orkney & Shetland but it will be tight.

 

Prediction:

 

SNP 56

Tories 2

Lib Dems 1

Labour 0

 

In a weird way, I can almost see Berwickshire being more likely to be Tory than Dumfriesshire come the day after the election. Main aim for Tories will be making sure Mundell holds on and, I presume, John Lamont again in Berwickshire.

 

Dumfries & Galloway and West Aberdeenshire I think are the only two other realistic targets. On a very good night these seem like they'd be possible.

 

After those seats you get to Pete Wishart in North Perthshire and Angus Robertson in Moray as next targets, but I shan't be so wishful...

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2 hours ago, Glenconner said:

Tory will take East Ren.

SNP have a pretty sizeable majority, though there's a lot of labour votes for the tories to eat into there. I suspect it'll stay SNP with their lead cut. 

 

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 In a weird way, I can almost see Berwickshire being more likely to be Tory than Dumfriesshire come the day after the election. Main aim for Tories will be making sure Mundell holds on and, I presume, John Lamont again in Berwickshire.
 
Dumfries & Galloway and West Aberdeenshire I think are the only two other realistic targets. On a very good night these seem like they'd be possible.
 
After those seats you get to Pete Wishart in North Perthshire and Angus Robertson in Moray as next targets, but I shan't be so wishful...


Wishart's majority is 10000 however and is quite popular, would take a lot for him to lose just now.

Genuinely how are they gong to choose candidates with next to no time?
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I posted this on the independence thread but it may be missed amid the talk of Gregg's the Bakers (yes, really), so am keen to hear thoughts to below:

I've been thinking over what yesterday's General Election announcement could mean for Scotland.

Let me first say that I'm confident that the PM has made this decision for Westminster-, Tory Party-, Brexit-centric reasons. That said, issue of Scotland remains a big challenge for her, one which will rise up her agenda as the terms of Brexit become clearer and one I think she'd concede privately she has insufficient understanding of currently.

So the consequences of this decision on Scotland will have been taken into account: and the feeling from the Tories is likely to have been that there is little for Scottish nationalism to gain in it.

The most likely outcome of the election at present seems to be another Tory government and another strong SNP return, though with fewer than 56 seats. The question of independence remains the dominant issue in Scotland.

I'm fairly sure that all of the above holds true so I think the interesting part is what lies beyond the election result.

Which brings me to the point of my post in this topic. I'm loathe to predict things but I think there is a real possibility that in short order Westminster would then offer an independence referendum, provided it takes place in 2017.

May will realise the hypocrisy of her contrasting statements/approaches to a referendum and to a GE but is likely to justify this by citing 'certainty' and that she's having the poll prior to EU talks beginning in earnest.

She may challenge the SNP to do likewise knowing that it would be difficult for the SNP to refuse, that the SNP still have some significant policy positions to determine, that the polls are slightly in her favour and to draw the stamina from activists and the appetite out of voters following council elections and a GE.

Should the SNP refuse, the offer would be off the table with the Tories safe in the knowledge that they had not ignored the democratic will of Scotland and that Holyrood elections now precede Westminster, at which another pro-independence majority is no given, never mind a pro-SNP majority.

As I say this it still seems moonbeams to think we'll see a 2017 referendum but I think that after yesterday there is now a logic to it being a possibility. Thoughts?

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9 hours ago, Glenconner said:

Tory will take East Ren.

 

6 hours ago, sparky88 said:

SNP have a pretty sizeable majority, though there's a lot of labour votes for the tories to eat into there. I suspect it'll stay SNP with their lead cut. 

 

I wouldn't be too sure on this, they might fancy their chances as we did vote Jackass Carlaw in at the Holyrood elections but even looking at those results he only gained 2.3% of the vote to take the seat  by 1611 votes. Stewart Maxwell in second polled 31.2% of the vote with a gain of 6.9%, so even though the tories did ultimately win the seat the SNP still manage to gain a higher vote percentage increase.

Take that into the general election and as Sparky88 says there is a  majority of 6.6% that they might fancy their chances with but then looking at the fact Kirsten Oswald seems to be doing a solid if unspectacular job so far would that cause her to lose her more than 6.6% of the vote? 

I looked into the 2015 result further and saw Tory's finished 3rd with their share of the vote dropping by 8.4%. They need to reverse that drop and then start eating into the Labour vote to take 2nd before worrying about Oswald's majority.

Given that her majority in the seat is 6.6% over Labour and 18.6% over the tories, she may lose votes but she should be relected taken Eastwood SNP vote increase for Holyrood into account and the actual chasm between her and the tories at the last General Election.   

 

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19 hours ago, Crùbag said:

Remember Maggie's wise words.

With the SNP at 50% for WM intentions (think it was 54% recently) this is one big gamble for May.

thatcher on snp majority.jpg

So where will the SNP find 300+ MPS? 

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On a different note, I wonder how many "big names" will attempt to make a return here? A huge amount of seats changed hands last time both in Scotland & the rUK. Who will try to get back in? A decent chunk of Labour (especially Scottish Labour) were annihilated as were most of the Lib Dems - including then cabinet members.

Danny Alexander? Jim Murphy? Vince Cable? Ed Balls? Will we see the attempted return of any of these?

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I've spoken recently to two Labour voters who oppose Scottish independence; they were both vehement in declaring that even with that position there is no way they will ever vote Tory.  I reckon Davidson and Co might be in for a shock as to how few folk of any political affiliation might be prepared to switch to the Tories.

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Should the SNP put up candidates in the North of England?

 

https://www.change.org/p/the-uk-government-allow-the-north-of-england-to-secede-from-the-uk-and-join-scotland

 

Or do they only care about the people of Northern Britain who reside within lines drawn on maps hundreds of years ago?

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