Theresa May Statement - 11:15

[renton]

In terms of majorities, if you look at who's got majorities of less than 5,000 in Scotland you get:

SNP

Berwickshire

Caithness

Dumbartonshire East

Edinburgh West

Fife North East

Western Isles

Renfreshire East

Conservatives

Galloway and tweed

Labour

Edinburgh South

Lib Dems

Orkney and Shetland

 

Of the SNP low majority seats, The Tories are second only in 1, Labour in 2 and the LDs in 4. Of the non SNP seats, the SNP are second in all three. You could easily see a range of 49 to 59 seats for the SNP.

 

[sparky88]

45 minutes ago, Bob Mahelp said:

I'm wondering where the Tories will grab another 3 seats from in Scotland ?

Mundell was lucky to hold onto his seat last time and there'll be a concerted effort from the SNP in the next 2 months to try and get him out this time.

I don't think the Tories got close to any other seat in May 2015. The FPTP system doesn't allow them the leeway of claiming MP's because they finish in a distant 2nd or 3rd place.

I suspect that the LibDems could make a comeback in their traditional strongholds like the Borders and north-east Fife, and maybe the Highlands.

Whatever happens, it's likely that the SNP will quite naturally fail to hit the high points of a couple of years ago, and even though they'll probably win around 85% of the seats in Scotland the Unionists will still scream about the country rejecting a second referendum.

God, I hate the Tories.

Old Tory labour marginals like Eastwood and Dumfries must be their best chance. I suspect they'll lose Their mp but increase their vote share at the expense of labour

[Helpma]

49 minutes ago, DrewDon said:

And this hero. 

Luckily he booked his holidays for July this year.  I reckon he got tipped off .....

[glasgow-sheep]

29 minutes ago, renton said:

In terms of majorities, if you look at who's got majorities of less than 5,000 in Scotland you get:

SNP

Berwickshire

Caithness

Dumbartonshire East

Edinburgh West

Fife North East

Western Isles

Renfreshire East

Conservatives

Galloway and tweed

Labour

Edinburgh South

Lib Dems

Orkney and Shetland

 

Of the SNP low majority seats, The Tories are second only in 1, Labour in 2 and the LDs in 4. Of the non SNP seats, the SNP are second in all three. You could easily see a range of 49 to 59 seats for the SNP.

 

Aberdeenshire West may have a maj of 7000 for the SNP but the current MP is very young and has a low profile.  If the unionists rally behind either the Tories or LibDems easy to see that seat going.  The equivalent Holyrood seats saw a big swing to the tories in 2016

[renton]

Just now, glasgow-sheep said:

Aberdeenshire West may have a maj of 7000 for the SNP but the current MP is very young and has a low profile.  If the unionists rally behind either the Tories or LibDems easy to see that seat going.

It depends to what degree the whole thing turns into a proxy-Indy ref or a proxy Brexit affair. It's hard to see how Lib Dem Remainers could get behind a Tory candidate fixed to May's hard Brexit coat-tails and vice versa. Tactical voting becomes harder when you polarize the Unionist camp into EU factions - an inevitable outcome of the wider UK context.

[glasgow-sheep]

37 minutes ago, renton said:

It depends to what degree the whole thing turns into a proxy-Indy ref or a proxy Brexit affair. It's hard to see how Lib Dem Remainers could get behind a Tory candidate fixed to May's hard Brexit coat-tails and vice versa. Tactical voting becomes harder when you polarize the Unionist camp into EU factions - an inevitable outcome of the wider UK context.

 

You wouldn't have expected Scottish Labour voters to switch to the Tories  but they seem to have done so. Unionists are odd.

[stonedsailor]

2 hours ago, NotThePars said:

 

I want revolutionary communism and the death of the aristocratic elite as much as anyone but ideological purity doesn't take precedence over saving the lives the Tories are destroying at this minute. Get your head out your arse and do some good that goes beyond feeling superior on a football forum.

What "good" would you suggest I do? The election will be won by whomever can produce the most psychologically persuasive campaign, the sheep will vote according to whoever are the best manipulators.

 

[Kejan]

We've had the Brexit vote since the Scottish parliamentary election last year too. Most Scots Tory MSPs seemed to or at the least loudest voices were for remain last year; the new election campaign will be a completely different message and if you are a pro-EU Lib/Lab voter in SNP v Tory constituencies :will they realistically back the Tories over the SNP, vote for their own, or abstain?

Then again will the SNP get the same boost they received in 2015 after the referendum. Is there still the goodwill towards them, and any apathy setting in for what will be another election?

Nae idea.

 

[EdgarusQPFC]

Conversation with my mum earlier, she was wondering where im looking to vote. Last time she was a staunch SNP pro independence voter, i don't quite understand but now shes a pro union, pro brexit person who plans to vote Tory. Im utterly confused by that, how someone can make such a radical change. 

[stonedsailor]

2 minutes ago, EdgarusQPFC said:

Conversation with my mum earlier, she was wondering where im looking to vote. Last time she was a staunch SNP pro independence voter, i don't quite understand but now shes a pro union, pro brexit person who plans to vote Tory. Im utterly confused by that, how someone can make such a radical change. 

Perhaps the thought that if independence had been won, and if the SNPs financial forecasts were correct, we'd have been more bankrupt than Greece after the slump in the oil price.

[1320Lichtie]

What "good" would you suggest I do? The election will be won by whomever can produce the most psychologically persuasive campaign, the sheep will vote according to whoever are the best manipulators.
 

Oooooooh, you're so controversial mate.

[NotThePars]

12 minutes ago, stonedsailor said:

What "good" would you suggest I do? The election will be won by whomever can produce the most psychologically persuasive campaign, the sheep will vote according to whoever are the best manipulators.

 

Well go out and help those affected by Tory cuts or support those that do for one. 

[dogmc]

Perhaps the thought that if independence had been won, and if the SNPs financial forecasts were correct, we'd have been more bankrupt than Greece after the slump in the oil price.

This nonsense whilst calling other people sheep.......[emoji23]

[stonedsailor]

5 minutes ago, dogmc said:

This nonsense whilst calling other people sheep.......

Nice wee but of ad hominem rhetoric there. Well played.

[Wee Willie]

20 minutes ago, dogmc said:

This nonsense whilst calling other people sheep.......

[Alan Stubbs]

Are there any bigger roasters in life than back-patting ballot spoilers? Freaks.

I expect something similar to 2016 with the SNP vote holding up or increasing but the consolidation of the Unionist vote giving the Tories a few seats at the their expense. Calum Kerr is a goner, Ian Murray's seat is up for grabs, anywhere where the SNP don't have too big a majority and/or the Tories start from second is uncertain and the healthy number of seats that are comfortably up above 50% SNP should stay that way.

They'll lose a few seats but if the SNP can't turn this into an overall positive, we may as well all give up. Another election win, all the arguments about the evils of holding a vote you said you wouldn't being immediately placed in the sea, a dystopian angry little English British future confirmed.

[Elixir]

Imagine what sort of fucking weirdo you'd have to be to prefer perpetual Conservative government from England over Scotland running its own affairs.

Absolute mind cripples.

[Granny Danger]

13 minutes ago, Elixir said:

Imagine what sort of fucking weirdo you'd have to be to prefer perpetual Conservative government from England over Scotland running its own affairs.

Absolute mind cripples.

I was just thinking this.  What sort of craven c**t would rather be governed by a Tory government headed by a woman who patronised the Scottish people and their Parliament with her "now is not the time" comment and is too much of a coward to take part in a TV debate in the run up to an election she has called?

 

[Alan Stubbs]

16 minutes ago, Elixir said:

Imagine what sort of fucking weirdo you'd have to be to prefer perpetual Conservative government from England over Scotland running its own affairs.

Absolute mind cripples.

Unless anyone thinks this is, or is likely to ever be, the most popular way of thinking in Scotland, the Unionist vote coalescing around the Tories is a blessing in disguise for Independence long-term.

There's not going to a remotely credible "ach Labour will be in soon enough", centrist or left wing vision for Unionism any time soon. It's right-wing, hard-Brexit, Tory Britain vs Scotland from now on. Going to be a fucking sare yin in the mean time but it only hastens the inevitable.

[Mark Connolly]

5 hours ago, AyrshireTon said:

The only real winners of this are Modern Studies teachers.

I reckon John Curtice will be doing alright for himself too.

ETA: Must remember to read the whole thread before replying.