Future of the party leaders post council elections

[ChrisMFCfan1886]

Thought I should start a thread in preparation for the aftermath of the May elections, as we could see a few leaders being binned after poor performances.

Nicola Sturgeon SNP- Looking likely to take control of all the central belt and Glasgow councils and perhaps gaining seats elsewhere. Should be quite a successful election for Nicola.Verdict-stays in post.

Ruth Davidson Tory- Likely to hoover up unionist voters by making these elections about Independence (much to my anger) and targeting the SNP heartlands in Perth etc. Should make gains overall , but unlikely to control any councils as a majority. Will claim the election is a victory for unionism. Verdict-stays in post

Kezia Dugdale Lab- expecting nothing short of a car crash election for Kez, losing control of the Labour strongholds to the SNP and losing unionists to the Tories. The downward spiral will continue for Labour and we can expect her to leave soon after the elections. Verdict-binned

Patrick Harvie:Greens- Likely to make gains overall, although not quite sure where, heard they are standing several candidates in Lanarkshire so could win some seats here. Could see a few SNP-Green coalitions across Scotland post election and the greens to finish in 4th place overall, above the Lib Dems. Verdict-stays in post

Willie Rennie:Lib Dems- TBH this is a strange one, we were expected to lose seats at Holyrood, yet we stayed the same, and it will likely happen again this year. We only really have the hardcore voters in the traditional areas left who are unlikely to abandon us, but we are unlikely to gain extra voters. Extremely unlikely to have a majority in any council so expect a few anti SNP coalitions involving us. Rennie could claim that standing still is a victory, and stay in post, or resign and allow the party to move on with a new face (hopefully) and I reckon the latter is most likely. Verdict-binned

[Chapelhall chap]

Well done for putting your neck on the line in predictions; a bit like which football managers will survive relegation etc/failure to get promoted/please the fans. I think you are not far away and it may well depend on turnouts in low activism areas. As much of the campaigning in print has been about Referendum and day job I suspect the Davidson for opposition will do well.

[Benjamin_Nevis]

I think the only leader to be binned, sadly will be Dugdale. Labour are almost certainly going to suffer a third electoral evisceration in the last couple of years. She's provided plenty of entertainment but I'll be stunned if Sarwar isn't the branch office manager by July.

I expect the SNP to take a few of Labour's councils in Glasgow and the central belt, with the Tories maybe sneaking a couple in the rural areas.

I hope to see the Greens do well and as usual, no one is really interested in the Lib Dems. However I can't see Rennie getting emptied at all.

[Wee Willie]

The problem with forecasting is that usually it comes back to bite ye on the bum

[NotThePars]

Can't see Rennie getting emptied either even if only because nobody gives a shit about them.

[ChrisMFCfan1886]

It's hard to tell with Rennie I must admit, although in my personal opinion I hope he does go because the party needs fresh ideas, and sadly Rennie isn't exactly the right man to provide that.

[Granny Danger]

Dugdale will only get binned if there's a better option willing to take the gig at this time.  I'm sure SLab have a few ambitious souls who are marginally better than Kez  but who would want the job at this point?

[Colkitto]

Lets face it Dugdale should have been binned a long time ago. Probably because there is a real dearth of talent and they know they are going to get trounced in the local elections.

She's going to take a bullet for the team and see how it goes. Because of the lack of leadership material I'm not certain she will go, but in reality she's already living on borrowed time.

The next leader, probably Sarwar, will come in with the "we've learned our lesson" We need to listen to the people" "Labour need to change" routine that all the others said when they took over. And of course, he will do exactly the same as the others with the same inevitable outcome.

Where Labour in Scotland will be when he does go is anyone's guess, but I believe they will be fighting it out with the LibDems to avoid 5th place  

[Pearbuyerbell]

The Lib Dems and Labour might do a little better than expected via filling in the whole form.   

I've postal voted and ranked them both above the Tories.   They'll receive lots of 2nd and 3rd places from Unionists to complement 1st preference votes from supporters of both parties.   

This will be a council election like no other. 

[Wee Willie]

9 minutes ago, Colkitto said:

Lets face it Dugdale should have been binned a long time ago. Probably because there is a real dearth of talent and they know they are going to get trounced in the local elections.

She's going to take a bullet for the team and see how it goes. Because of the lack of leadership material I'm not certain she will go, but in reality she's already living on borrowed time.

The next leader, probably Sarwar, will come in with the "we've learned our lesson" We need to listen to the people" "Labour need to change" routine that all the others said when they took over. And of course, he will do exactly the same as the others with the same inevitable outcome.

Where Labour in Scotland will be when he does go is anyone's guess, but I believe they will be fighting it out with the LibDems to avoid 5th place  

hopefully.

[John Lambies Doos]

Thought I should start a thread in preparation for the aftermath of the May elections, as we could see a few leaders being binned after poor performances.
Nicola Sturgeon SNP- Looking likely to take control of all the central belt and Glasgow councils and perhaps gaining seats elsewhere. Should be quite a successful election for Nicola.Verdict-stays in post.
Ruth Davidson Tory- Likely to hoover up unionist voters by making these elections about Independence (much to my anger) and targeting the SNP heartlands in Perth etc. Should make gains overall , but unlikely to control any councils as a majority. Will claim the election is a victory for unionism. Verdict-stays in post
Kezia Dugdale Lab- expecting nothing short of a car crash election for Kez, losing control of the Labour strongholds to the SNP and losing unionists to the Tories. The downward spiral will continue for Labour and we can expect her to leave soon after the elections. Verdict-binned
Patrick Harvie:Greens- Likely to make gains overall, although not quite sure where, heard they are standing several candidates in Lanarkshire so could win some seats here. Could see a few SNP-Green coalitions across Scotland post election and the greens to finish in 4th place overall, above the Lib Dems. Verdict-stays in post
Willie Rennie:Lib Dems- TBH this is a strange one, we were expected to lose seats at Holyrood, yet we stayed the same, and it will likely happen again this year. We only really have the hardcore voters in the traditional areas left who are unlikely to abandon us, but we are unlikely to gain extra voters. Extremely unlikely to have a majority in any council so expect a few anti SNP coalitions involving us. Rennie could claim that standing still is a victory, and stay in post, or resign and allow the party to move on with a new face (hopefully) and I reckon the latter is most likely. Verdict-binned

Well done for having the courage to admit u are a lib dem supporter

[Wee Willie]

14 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said:

 

Well done for having the courage to admit u are a lib dem supporter

 

a dying breed

[Joey Jo Jo Junior Shabadoo]

16 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said:

 

Well done for having the courage to admit u are a lib dem supporter

 

Was Chris not the pro-Indy guy on the TV at the Lib Dem conference? 

[John Lambies Doos]

Was Chris not the pro-Indy guy on the TV at the Lib Dem conference? 

 

If he was it would surprise me. The biggest issue in Scottish politics last 5 yrs has been independence. For a guy who is an independence supporter to remain with these 'heads in the sand' clusterfucks headed up by bawbags like Rennie and carmicheals would just begger belief

 

[Joey Jo Jo Junior Shabadoo]

6 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said:

If he was it would surprise me. The biggest issue in Scottish politics last 5 yrs has been independence. For a guy who is an independent fan to stay with the heads in the sand clusterfuck headed up by wankstains like Rennie and carmicheals would just begger belief

 

Here he is (I think!?):

https://www.commonspace.scot/articles/10525/liberal-democrat-youth-activist-changes-mind-back-scottish-independence-party

Some of the crowd reactions are wonderful.

[Wee Willie]

58 minutes ago, Joey Jo Jo Junior Shabadoo said:

Was Chris not the pro-Indy guy on the TV at the Lib Dem conference? 

 

6 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said:

 

If he was it would surprise me. The biggest issue in Scottish politics last 5 yrs has been independence. For a guy who is an independence supporter to remain with these 'heads in the sand' clusterfucks headed up by bawbags like Rennie and carmicheals would just begger belief

 

I remember him but what's an Indy guy doing with the Lib-Dems?

[NotThePars]

Because independence isn't the number one issue to literally everyone. Having pro-indy supporters in "the enemy camps" so to speak only benefits the cause anaw.

[DublinMagyar]

Because independence isn't the number one issue to literally everyone. Having pro-indy supporters in "the enemy camps" so to speak only benefits the cause anaw.

Agreed, Labour and lib dems (maybe even Tories?) must have a decent number of Indy supporters in their ranks. If more of them stand up like Chris then Scotref2 is in the bag. I applaud his actions even if I disagree with his politics.

[invergowrie arab]

I was canvassing an area today where we had't been to since 2012. In 2012 it was about 50/50 Lab/SNP. Council estate, although many will own now, older settled population with some first time buyer families. 

You almost get blase at the extent to which Labour have disappeared but not until going door to door and checking off canvass sheet today that it really hits home. from the 40 odd 2012 Labour supporters we spoke to there are about 4 left. Area is now about 80% SNP 20% Tory 

They are going to get absolutely trashed in all communities in Scotland - looks like deciding to compete in the biggest unionists competition didnt really work out for them.

[Wee Willie]

1 hour ago, NotThePars said:

Because independence isn't the number one issue to literally everyone. Having pro-indy supporters in "the enemy camps" so to speak only benefits the cause anaw.

 

1 hour ago, DublinMagyar said:

Agreed, Labour and lib dems (maybe even Tories?) must have a decent number of Indy supporters in their ranks. If more of them stand up like Chris then Scotref2 is in the bag. I applaud his actions even if I disagree with his politics.

Do you two really agree that there are indy supporters in the unionist camp.
Does that even make sense.
If independence isn't the main issue then they are committed NO supporters/unionists.
If you don't want it then it isn't an issue for you.
If you do want it then then you vote for it.
Everything else then follows.

By that I mean that if you are shaping in your mind the kind of society you want then you have to consider unionism or independence cos that's the issue in today's Scotland.
Obviously people who are not members of any political party have to decide which way to turn.
But they will be voting for a political party which is for or against independence whether they want to or no.

 

34 minutes ago, invergowrie arab said:

I was canvassing an area today where we had't been to since 2012. In 2012 it was about 50/50 Lab/SNP. Council estate, although many will own now, older settled population with some first time buyer families. 

You almost get blase at the extent to which Labour have disappeared but not until going door to door and checking off canvass sheet today that it really hits home. from the 40 odd 2012 Labour supporters we spoke to there are about 4 left. Area is now about 80% SNP 20% Tory 

They are going to get absolutely trashed in all communities in Scotland - looks like deciding to compete in the biggest unionists competition didnt really work out for them.

Well done you walking the streets on our behalf.
Kudos to you

Unfortunately I'm a pessimistic auld git and I'll wait until 5th May to see the actual results of the council elections.