1320Lichtie Posted April 12, 2017 Share Posted April 12, 2017 Because I've never tried to claim that isn't a very important factor. Where budgets are very similar, this is clearly by far the most important factor in how successful a team is. Saying that budget is the most important factor does not mean that's it's the only factor. Obviously you'd fancy a shite manager with a bigger budget to do worse than a good manager with a more modest budget. It's like someone saying strength is the most important aspect in boxing and then someone else saying 'I disagree, because when two boxers are evenly matched in strength, fitness is the most important factor'. Agree in a way then as previous post shows. Like I said Livi or any other FT club in L1 are an exception, they should be too far ahead. The rest though is anyone's guess and a good manager is definitely the biggest factor on success/failure imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordon EF Posted April 12, 2017 Share Posted April 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, 1320Lichtie said: You got it? Also, I'm talking about PT clubs here. I'd also like to see the results for this seasons Premiership from the 6th placed team to the 12th placed team. According to figures released in November Budgets are 1. Celtic 2. Rangers 3. Aberdeen (134,000 average salary) 4. Hearts (86,000 average salary) 5. Dundee (61,000 average salary) 6. Inverness 7. Motherwell 8. Kilmarnock 9. Ross County 10. St Johnstone 11. Partick Thistle 12. Hamilton (42,000 average salary) Left the top 4 in their own group because the margin between them and the rest is very big. So they really should be the top 4, you'd imagine Hearts would be if they'd kept Neilson. So I agree when the margins are as big as that it's probably the most important factor in where a club finishes. However between the other 8 clubs the margins are minimal, like they are between the PT clubs in L1 and L2. Think this clearly shows that with these teams the points I made are the most important factors in where a team finishes... See Tommy Wright, Alan Archibald... on the other side of that Foran and Hartley have done terrible jobs. When the margins are as small as they are here a good manager with contacts is worth their weight in gold. Same goes for our league. See it every single season, clubs punching above their weight and clubs well below where they should be, because of how well a manager has done and how well he's recruited players that fit his team. How well they've used the loans and how well they've distributed their budget across the squad. Don't know how to put Excel graphs up without fannying around putting them online. It's basically 6 teams down the bottom corner (Dundee, ICT, Motherwell, Killie, Ross County and Hamilton) who have relatively similar budgets and relatively similar number of points in a little cluster. The top 4 kind of stretch out in a pretty nice line (obviously Aberdeen / Rangers don't fit perfectly). The two biggest anomalies are St Johnstone and Partick who have bottom 3 budgets (although it's all very close between the bottom 8 budgets in relative terms) but are fairly ahead of the cluster of 6 in terms of points. I'm not disagreeing with you at all. When budgets are close, as they are among those 8 Premier Clubs and as they usually are between the bulk of L1 or L2 clubs, then it's not really a factor (obviously) and it's all the things you mentioned that will determine who does better. That doesn't go against budgets being the biggest factor in success, generally, at all. That doesn't mean that if Forfar or Arbroath win L2 this season they'll have done it because they might have a marginally bigger budget than most other teams because the whole point about budgets being so important is that when you have a more level playing field, it's lots of other factors which come into play. I'd be willing to bet extremely heavily that if you picked out L1 or L2 over th epast 10/20 years and looked at the stats between budgets and points, you would see a significant correleation between the two. Obviously not as big as the top leagues where there's huge financial gulfs between the teams but, really, that's my whole point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Chlamydia Kid Posted April 12, 2017 Share Posted April 12, 2017 That's a graph of normalised wage budget (x-axis) vs normailsed points (y-axis) for this season's Premier. In terms of correlation where -1 is a perfectly negative correlation, 0 is no correlation and +1 is a perfectly positive correlation, the correlation for budget to points is +0.87. Edit: Graph's not showing, still though. Such a correlation is absolutely huge BTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bold Rover Posted April 12, 2017 Share Posted April 12, 2017 8 hours ago, Gordon EF said: Yep, and has been pointed out many, many times and should be perfectly obvious, a bigger budget does not guarentee finishing above a team with a smaller budget. There are lots of other factors which are important. Aberdeen will see finishing 2nd as a good achievement and Rangers will view finishing 3rd as a dissapointment precisely because there's that gap in budget between them. How anyone can use the fact that the current top three placed clubs in Scotland are first, third, second in terms of wage budget instead of first, second, third as an argument against budgets being the most important factor in success is mind boggling. Indeed. Unfollowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LIVIFOREVER Posted April 12, 2017 Share Posted April 12, 2017 TBH I think having a shite pitch is the most important thing for a team to win the league. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATLIS Posted April 12, 2017 Share Posted April 12, 2017 On 10/04/2017 at 13:05, Diamond Oracle said: I'm sure it was said somewhere that Alloa had the biggest budget in the league. Can't remember where I read that now, was possibly the journo that covers the Livi games. ETA: If the above is true I would expect the league of budgets to look like: Alloa Livingston $tranraer Airdrie Peterhead Brechin East Fife Albion Rovers Stenhousemuir Queens Park From what I'd heard he also mentioned that Peterhead and Stranraer's budgets were bigger than Livi's. Bearing in mind our entire squad's average age is around 22/23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mattmc Posted April 12, 2017 Share Posted April 12, 2017 I'd imagine at the start of the season we had a better budget than we've had for a while, given our fortune with cup ties and a couple of seasons in the play offs. Quite clear that the wrong manager can ruin it. Nade signs and hardly kicks a ball, looks uninterested, leaves before his contract is up and then signs for Dumbarton and starts banging them in. Not sure what kind of money we offer for players these days. I'd think the likes of Gibson would be on a decent wage, from what I've heard he tries to milk every penny he can, the club offer £101 and he wants £101.01. Worth it if his goals keep up all the same. Location doesn't really come in to it. The club train in Glasgow so only additional thing would be budgeting for more busses than some other teams. We're fortunate in that the club being in a good income from a lottery, our pub and then hospitality packages at home games. If we do have one of the highest budgets a massive congrats need to go to everyone who played their part in getting us to a position that we can offer so well given where we were about ten years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yoda8 Posted April 12, 2017 Author Share Posted April 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, Mattmc said: I'd imagine at the start of the season we had a better budget than we've had for a while, given our fortune with cup ties and a couple of seasons in the play offs. Quite clear that the wrong manager can ruin it. Nade signs and hardly kicks a ball, looks uninterested, leaves before his contract is up and then signs for Dumbarton and starts banging them in. Not sure what kind of money we offer for players these days. I'd think the likes of Gibson would be on a decent wage, from what I've heard he tries to milk every penny he can, the club offer £101 and he wants £101.01. Worth it if his goals keep up all the same. Location doesn't really come in to it. The club train in Glasgow so only additional thing would be budgeting for more busses than some other teams. We're fortunate in that the club being in a good income from a lottery, our pub and then hospitality packages at home games. If we do have one of the highest budgets a massive congrats need to go to everyone who played their part in getting us to a position that we can offer so well given where we were about ten years ago. Very true. Stranraer have a big budget for this league due to the fact that they are a very well run club. Everything from the condition of their ground to their lottery just gives the impression that people behind the scenes take pride in their club. Celtic on Sky helps mind you and was it Utd on Sky before that as well lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mattmc Posted April 12, 2017 Share Posted April 12, 2017 Very true. Stranraer have a big budget for this league due to the fact that they are a very well run club. Everything from the condition of their ground to their lottery just gives the impression that people behind the scenes take pride in their club. Celtic on Sky helps mind you and was it Utd on Sky before that as well lol Correct, ties with Aberdeen, Talbot, league games with Rangers have all helped. Ayr United coming down will help our budget for next if we stay up [emoji23] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sergeant Wilson Posted April 13, 2017 Share Posted April 13, 2017 5 hours ago, Yoda8 said: Very true. Stranraer have a big budget for this league due to the fact that they are a very well run club. Everything from the condition of their ground to their lottery just gives the impression that people behind the scenes take pride in their club. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/south_of_scotland/7952564.stm It hasn't always been like that and rumours have always circulated about Stranraer's ability to run on fresh air. It should be remembered as well that lottery money is ring fenced for youth development. The licence to operate it would be lost if money was proven to be diverted elsewhere. That said, the same could be said a quite a few clubs who operate on a similar basis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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