Skyline Drifter Posted April 13, 2017 Author Share Posted April 13, 2017 Fixtures for Saturday 15th April: Dumbarton v Dunfermline Athletic Falkirk v St Mirren Hibernian v Queen of the South Raith Rovers v Morton Ayr United v Dundee United (5:15pm kick off) I'm away this weekend so early post of ramfications for the weekend's games. League Title Hibernian can win the league this weekend with a win over Queen of the South combined with Falkirk failing to beat St Mirren. Hibs could also potentially win the title with a draw provided: Falkirk lose to St Mirren, Dundee United fail to beat Ayr AND Morton fail to beat Raith Rovers. However, with United not playing to Saturday evening, they can't win it at Easter Road without winning the game. Promotion Playoffs With QoS able to get 54 points at the moment and Dunfermline 51, playoff places can be clinched as follows:Falkirk - A win over St Mirren OR a draw if QoS fail to win, OR a QoS loss at Hibernian,Dundee United - A win over Ayr AND QoS failing to win at Hibs, OR a draw with Ayr AND QoS losing to Hibs AND Dunfermline failing to beat Dumbarton.Morton - A win over Raith Rovers AND QoS failing to win at Hibs. Far too close for 2nd / 3rd / 4th to discuss ramifications at this point. Relegation & Playoffs Too close down the bottom for much to be clinched BUTQoS - Officially removed from race for automatic relegation with a point at Hibs or if ANY of Raith, Ayr or St Mirren don't win. Officially removed from playoff possibility also with a win at Hibs OR any two of Raith, Ayr & St Mirren failing to win (I think).Dunfermline - Can be officially removed from automatic relegation with a win combined with Ayr not beating Dundee United and can be officially safe from the playoffs with a win over Dumbarton, combined with Ayr failing to win AND Raith AND St Mirren both failing to win as there's no combination of results which would get two of them above 41 points. For the bottom four clearly much more at stake, though nothing can actually be clinched. It will be very difficult for Ayr to come back if they were to drop more than 3 points back at the bottom and unlikely for Dumbarton to be relegated if they were to win again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Flash Posted April 13, 2017 Share Posted April 13, 2017 5 hours ago, Skyline Drifter said: Relegation & Playoffs Too close down the bottom for much to be clinched BUTQoS - Officially removed from race for automatic relegation with a point at Hibs or if ANY of Raith, Ayr or St Mirren don't win. Officially removed from playoff possibility also with a win at Hibs OR any two of Raith, Ayr & St Mirren failing to win (I think). Not sure that is quite right in terms of the relegation play-off. If St.Mirren and Ayr don't win, St.Mirren could still get 43 or 44 and, if they do Raith could still get 42 which would mean it would come down to goal difference if we lose all our games. Same applies if Raith and Ayr don't win, Raith could still get 43 and, if they do, St.Mirren could also get 43. Think the only combination of 2 that definitely works is if St.Mirren and Raith both don't win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ranaldo Bairn Posted April 13, 2017 Share Posted April 13, 2017 On 11/04/2017 at 23:44, Skyline Drifter said: Relegation & Playoff St Mirren's win moves them out of the playoff spot and up to 8th. They are now just 1 point behind Dumbarton and probably the most "in form" side in the division. It's looking less and less likely they will be involved and, whilst it was a bad night for all the other three sides seriously involved (we'll ignore Dunfermline in practice), it was especially bad for Raith and Ayr. They are now the bottom two, Ayr's remaining fixtures are Dundee United (H), Morton (A). Hibernian (H) and Raith (A). Raith's games are Morton (H), Hibernian (A), St Mirren (A), Ayr (H). On the face of it it's hard to see Ayr, who were awful on Saturday, winning another point before the final week with three of the top four to play. If they don't do that, and Raith get a point anywhere, then Ayr will be down. However, United have been poor recently even if they fell over the line tonight, Morton's home fortress seems to have collapsed a bit now and Hibs will likely be already champions and on the beach by the time they roll into Ayr so it's not completely hopeless. While in league terms Hibs might be "on the beach" by the time they play Ayr, there is a non-zero possibility they could be playing for Cup final places at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shadwell Dog Posted April 13, 2017 Share Posted April 13, 2017 14 minutes ago, Ranaldo Bairn said: While in league terms Hibs might be "on the beach" by the time they play Ayr, there is a non-zero possibility they could be playing for Cup final places at that point. Hibs are hardly exactly hitting the heights performance wise at the moment . They may actually play better once the league has been won. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monkey Tennis Posted April 13, 2017 Share Posted April 13, 2017 13 minutes ago, Ranaldo Bairn said: While in league terms Hibs might be "on the beach" by the time they play Ayr, there is a non-zero possibility they could be playing for Cup final places at that point. If Hibs had a Cup Final up ahead, I think that it would if anything, enhance the 'on the beach' effect, rather than minimise it. A weaker team would probably be fielded and those playing would be more likely to be protecting themselves than battling hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavyBlueArmy1876 Posted April 13, 2017 Share Posted April 13, 2017 Remaining fixtures for the battle for 2nd place Falkirk: St Mirren (H) Dunfermline (A) Queen of the South (H) Dumbarton (A) Dundee United: Ayr United (A) St Mirren (H) Dumbarton (H) Morton (A) Morton Raith Rovers (A) Ayr United (H) Dunfermline (A) Dundee United (H) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skyline Drifter Posted April 13, 2017 Author Share Posted April 13, 2017 1 hour ago, Flash said: Not sure that is quite right in terms of the relegation play-off. If St.Mirren and Ayr don't win, St.Mirren could still get 43 or 44 and, if they do Raith could still get 42 which would mean it would come down to goal difference if we lose all our games. Same applies if Raith and Ayr don't win, Raith could still get 43 and, if they do, St.Mirren could also get 43. Think the only combination of 2 that definitely works is if St.Mirren and Raith both don't win. Yes, I think you are right. Was trying to do that quickly this morning and got myself slightly tied in knots with the ramifications and head to heads. Although whilst it wouldn't be "official" St Mirren and Ayr not winning leaves a scenario in which our worst case scenario is tying with Raith for 8th / 9th. Given it would need a 13 goal swing in effectively 8 games, which would include a Raith loss, it's pretty unlikely that could happen. Certainly though if Raith and Ayr don't win, St Mirren do and we lose then that scenario leaves 9th still a possibility for us. A point would be enough along with any two losses by the bottom three based on the same Raith goal difference assumption though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ranaldo Bairn Posted April 13, 2017 Share Posted April 13, 2017 8 hours ago, Shadwell Dog said: Hibs are hardly exactly hitting the heights performance wise at the moment . They may actually play better once the league has been won. Well, we would be guessing at that. 7 hours ago, Monkey Tennis said: If Hibs had a Cup Final up ahead, I think that it would if anything, enhance the 'on the beach' effect, rather than minimise it. A weaker team would probably be fielded and those playing would be more likely to be protecting themselves than battling hard. Why? Some managers might rest their best players for a final, others might want them sharp and competing for a slot. You can play yourself out of a team as well as into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 14, 2017 Share Posted April 14, 2017 It seems that everyone is now assuming St.Mirren are going to be safe. The two below them are clearly in horrible form but St.Mirren have by far the most difficult run in. If the other two were to get a result this weekend and St.Mirren don't they are clearly going to me under huge pressure again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stumigoo Posted April 14, 2017 Share Posted April 14, 2017 14 hours ago, NavyBlueArmy1876 said: Remaining fixtures for the battle for 2nd place Falkirk: St Mirren (H) Dunfermline (A) Queen of the South (H) Dumbarton (A) Dundee United: Ayr United (A) St Mirren (H) Dumbarton (H) Morton (A) Morton Raith Rovers (A) Ayr United (H) Dunfermline (A) Dundee United (H) I'd hope for about 8 points in that run in. I'd like to think we have enough about us to remain unbeaten but although I'd hope for maximum points against Ayr and Dumbarton I think we will struggle to beat St.Mirren and Morton. All three sides have a very similar run in. Basically it will come down to who will shit the bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poet of the Macabre Posted April 14, 2017 Share Posted April 14, 2017 Dundee United should always be looking to beat St Mirren at home, regardless of their form. I'd say you should be getting 10 from that lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stumigoo Posted April 14, 2017 Share Posted April 14, 2017 16 minutes ago, Poet of the Macabre said: Dundee United should always be looking to beat St Mirren at home, regardless of their form. I'd say you should be getting 10 from that lot. I'll take that! I'm just trying to be overly cautious. I'd like to think if we did get 10 points then it would just about be enough to get 2nd. A huge game tomorrow between Falkirk and St.Mirren for us. If that maybe ends in a draw and then we beat Ayr it swings back in our favour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rovers1992/1993 Posted April 14, 2017 Share Posted April 14, 2017 I'll take that! I'm just trying to be overly cautious. I'd like to think if we did get 10 points then it would just about be enough to get 2nd. A huge game tomorrow between Falkirk and St.Mirren for us. If that maybe ends in a draw and then we beat Ayr it swings back in our favour. Lets all hope it's a draw then for obvious reasons.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stumigoo Posted April 14, 2017 Share Posted April 14, 2017 6 minutes ago, Rovers1992/1993 said: Lets all hope it's a draw then for obvious reasons.. Plus if you guys could beat Morton i'd be okay with that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rovers1992/1993 Posted April 14, 2017 Share Posted April 14, 2017 Plus if you guys could beat Morton i'd be okay with that... That's the ideal results. A win for us and draw for St Mirren would be ideal. As long as Hibs win as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Moonster Posted April 14, 2017 Share Posted April 14, 2017 2 minutes ago, stumigoo said: Plus if you guys could beat Morton i'd be okay with that... Just you concentrate on beating Ayr. Raith don't need encouragement, thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rovers1992/1993 Posted April 14, 2017 Share Posted April 14, 2017 Just you concentrate on beating Ayr. Raith don't need encouragement, thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bridge of allan bairn Posted April 14, 2017 Share Posted April 14, 2017 I'll take that! I'm just trying to be overly cautious. I'd like to think if we did get 10 points then it would just about be enough to get 2nd. A huge game tomorrow between Falkirk and St.Mirren for us. If that maybe ends in a draw and then we beat Ayr it swings back in our favour. Irrespective of what United do at Ayr tomorrow I don't think a draw with st mirren would be a disaster for us given they are the form team in the league and United play them next week. We'd only be a point behind United with a superior goal difference and you guys still have st mirren and Morton to play. My fear us we lose tomorrow which could well happen. Exciting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monkey Tennis Posted April 14, 2017 Share Posted April 14, 2017 8 hours ago, Ranaldo Bairn said: Why? Some managers might rest their best players for a final, others might want them sharp and competing for a slot. You can play yourself out of a team as well as into it. Yes, but I'd see it as likelier to have the effect of weakening the side rather than strengthening it, if it had any at all, which is pretty much what I said. It might provide additional focus for one or two peripheral figures, but most are likelier to play more within themselves, if it's to have any discernible impact, especially given that such a league fixture would be genuinely meaningless for Hibs. I suppose that if they're due to receive the trophy that day it might provide the incentive of not having things fall flat. That would be the case irrespective of whether a Cup final was on the horizon though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dudu Dahan pal Posted April 14, 2017 Share Posted April 14, 2017 If we do win next Saturday in the semi final then I think the league season finishes about a month before the cup final so I don't think we will be "taking it easy" at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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