The Championship Run In

[Skyline Drifter]

It's about this time of year each year I start a thread to check out what's confirmed, what's not and who needs to do what to clinch something, updated weekly. A bit more complicated than normal this year with the bottom of the table so tight but here goes...................

Results from Saturday April 1st:
Dumbarton 1 - 0 Morton
Dunfermline 1 - 1 Hibernian
Falkirk 1 - 0 Raith Rovers
Queen of the South 4 - 2 Dundee United
St Mirren 6 - 2 Ayr United

League Title
Destined for Easter Road. Not even Hibs can 'Hibs it' from here surely? Falkirk's relatively late win yesterday kept them honest for another week or two but they are almost there. 68 points at the moment to formally win it though with goal difference in fact 67 would do. They could effectively win it by next midweek with a win at Morton on Saturday, a Falkirk loss at Tannadice and then Morton not winning against St Mirren the following midweek. In practice they will probably win it against us at Easter Road on Easter weekend.

Promotion Playoffs
More or less a done deal. Queen of the South and Dunfermline can both get 54 points which means Falkirk need 3 more points to clinch and Morton need 5. In practice I imagine both have already got enough points. Neither Dunfermline nor us are going to win all their remaining games. Dundee United's form is awful with only two wins since New Year but they will probably still make it into the playoffs. An eight point advantage with just 5 weeks to go will not be bridged. They can more or less finish it by beating Falkirk and Dunfermline in the next 10 days and their fixture list beyond that isn't too unkind either.

Relegation
Looked a done deal just a couple of months ago but St Mirren's post January form is excellent and they are making a real fight of it now, most recently with a 6-2 battering of their closest rivals Ayr. Looks like this will go to the wire. St Mirren sit top of the current form tables with one defeat in eight but they have all of the top four to play away from home within their last 6 games. It looks crucial that they can beat Dumbarton and Raith in their remaining home games. However, at only a point behind Ayr, with all the momentum and a much better goal difference, not going down automatically looks a good bet.

Relegation Playoff
With things so tight at the bottom it pretty much has to be looked at in tandem with the relegation position at the moment. As close as it is down there. it's unlikely anyone is going to be in the bottom two with 39 points so QoS win over Dundee United yesterday has just about got them safe. Whilst I expect all the bottom sides will pick up the odd unexpected point in the run in, especially after the top four clinch their places, it's the head to heads involving the bottom 4 or 5 that will be vital. There's pretty much one every week starting with Dunfermline v Raith this weekend. A Pars win probably takes them out of it and leaves Raith in big trouble. A Raith win on the other hand would leave Dunfermline very much in the mix. St Mirren v Dumbarton this weekend is also massive. In the closing weeks, St Mirren v Raith and then Raith v Ayr look potentially massive games.

Fixtures for Saturday 8th April:
Ayr United v Queen of the South
Dundee United v Falkirk
Dunfermline Athletic v Raith Rovers
Morton v Hibernian
St Mirren v Dumbarton

There's not much meaningless in there! The game with least riding on it is probably at Tannadice but with Falkirk and Morton still very much battling for 2nd and United in such bad form it's still a big game. Ayr really must get something from us to move themselves out of the relegation zone with their other four games being against Hibs, Dundee United and Morton before that potentially massive Raith game in the final week. The Fife derby is never meaningless and it's huge especially for Raith at the moment. St Mirren might potentially get themselves out of the bottom spot for the first time since August but Dumbarton might just about get themselves safe with a win in Paisley. And then there's Duffy v Lennon Part Deux!

[Anthony Fitzgerald]

Excellent preview. Whilst I feel this has been one of the poorest qualities, the way the league is shaping up now is that everyone (to a certain extent) has something to play for.

[Poet of the Macabre]

This league is great for entertainment but the quality has been pretty poor this season. Hibs are effective at picking up points but they don't score many or concede a lot. Disappointed in Falkirk and United. They're both going to be top four but expected much better title challenges from both. Morton have been the team of the season. Even if they ended up 4th it would be a superb season.

I think Ayr and Raith will be the bottom two but ourselves, Dumbarton and St Mirren are still very much in trouble. Going to be an interesting end to the season for sure.

[Bambino7]

We Hibsed it on May 21st 16 mate. Properly Hibsed it! X 

 

Anyway, Ayr are down. Raith will survive via Playoffs and Falkirk will relegate whoever they play in their final, probably Hamilton.  I hope we give emergency loan signings to Falkirk, Dumbarton and St Mirren as soon as possible.  

[stumigoo]

47 minutes ago, Poet of the Macabre said:

This league is great for entertainment but the quality has been pretty poor this season. Hibs are effective at picking up points but they don't score many or concede a lot. Disappointed in Falkirk and United. They're both going to be top four but expected much better title challenges from both. Morton have been the team of the season. Even if they ended up 4th it would be a superb season.

I think Ayr and Raith will be the bottom two but ourselves, Dumbarton and St Mirren are still very much in trouble. Going to be an interesting end to the season for sure.

Definitely this for me. I've actually enjoyed the competitiveness of the league and I think most teams I've seen have been able to produce some really good football but also some absolute dross. What makes it more frustrating for me (and I'd imagine Falkirk fans in particular) is that it wouldn't have taken too much more to actually provide a serious title challenge. When I look at a set of fixtures like those next Saturday then you can certainly say that in terms of things to play for then this league is providing more than enough entertainment.

[NavyBlueArmy1876]

11 minutes ago, stumigoo said:

Definitely this for me. I've actually enjoyed the competitiveness of the league and I think most teams I've seen have been able to produce some really good football but also some absolute dross. What makes it more frustrating for me (and I'd imagine Falkirk fans in particular) is that it wouldn't have taken too much more to actually provide a serious title challenge. When I look at a set of fixtures like those next Saturday then you can certainly say that in terms of things to play for then this league is providing more than enough entertainment.

I think most of our fans can understand this. It's a feeling of so near yet so far, particularly given the mess we made in the summer of replacing Vaulks and Alston. The reason we are where we are probably boils down to two factors 

a) We had an awful 2nd quarter of the season, 1 win in October, November & December. We lost against Raith & Dumbarton, and drew with St Mirren. As a result we found ourselves 12 points behind Hibs and 11 behind United at New Year.

b) We've picked up as many points from the rest of the teams in the league as Hibs have. Three losses and a draw against them is the reason they're 9 points ahead of us. Two of those defeats were wonder goals in the dying minutes, very hard to take. 

We deserve to be where we are and I'm looking forward to the play-offs. 

 

[bridge of allan bairn]

Definitely this for me. I've actually enjoyed the competitiveness of the league and I think most teams I've seen have been able to produce some really good football but also some absolute dross. What makes it more frustrating for me (and I'd imagine Falkirk fans in particular) is that it wouldn't have taken too much more to actually provide a serious title challenge. When I look at a set of fixtures like those next Saturday then you can certainly say that in terms of things to play for then this league is providing more than enough entertainment.

You are right it is frustrating that pretty much a couple of great last minute goals from hibs has pretty much taken us out of the title challenge but that's the difference between title winners and challengers. At the start of the season I thought we'd finish fourth or fifth after losing vaulks and Alston so if we finish second I'd say that was a pretty decent return again from Houston. I'm really looking forward to the play offs

[Zing.]

We have drawn a disgusting amount of games this season. Im sure we've only come from behind to win about once all season as well. Scoring a goal against us basically guarantees you at least a point. It's been said a few times but if any other team in this league was half decent we'd be fucked. 47 league goals in 30 games. Minter.

[Rovers1992/1993]

We have drawn a disgusting amount of games this season. Im sure we've only come from behind to win about once all season as well. Scoring a goal against us basically guarantees you at least a point. It's been said a few times but if any other team in this league was half decent we'd be fucked. 47 league goals in 30 games. Minter.

I hear your 47 league goals in 31 games and I'll raise you 29 league goals in 31 games.

 

Now that's fucking depressing.

[Bambino7]

1 hour ago, Rovers1992/1993 said:

I hear your 47 league goals in 31 games and I'll raise you 29 league goals in 31 games.

 

Now that's fucking depressing.

In fairness you boys aren't expected to skoosh the league, have one of the best strikers in the country and you had that c**t Locke punt your best striker in place of that tattooed weirdo. I think we are in the be leinient on you gus territory. 

[Skyline Drifter]

Never found time to do an updated preview for this weekend's games on Friday (sorry, I was busy!) but had done a limited preview last week anyway. Let's see where we are now.

Results from Saturday April 8th:
Ayr United 0 - 2 Queen of the South
Dundee United 1 - 1 Falkirk
Dunfermline Athletic 1 - 0 Raith Rovers
Morton 1 - 1 Hibernian
St Mirren 1 - 1 Dumbarton

An interesting bag of results. The top four drawing with one another changes nothing much and delays Hibs title celebrations but they are a week nearer without anyone closing the gap. Queen of the South and Dunfermline pretty much safe now. Tighter than ever among the bottom four though probably a good day for Dumbarton relatively speaking.

League Title
Could have been better but a decent day for Hibs. They apparently should have won but the important thing was they didn't lose and, with Falkirk failing to win also, they are nearer to the title. Nine points clear of Falkirk with 4 games to go, and 11 clear of Morton who have an extra game in hand. They can also still be caught by Dundee United who have 15 points to play for too. Hibs can win the title next weekend against Queen of the South IF they get more points than Falkirk do against St Mirren AND Morton remain at least 10 points behind after games against St Mirren and Raith Rovers. The situation will be clearer after midweek with Dundee United and Morton both playing.

Promotion Playoffs
Although this is still the more or less a done deal I said it was last week, victories for both Queen of the South and Dunfermline whilst Dundee United, Morton and Falkirk all failed to win mean nothing is clinched yet. Either Queens or Dunfermline can get 54 points (but not both as they have each other to play) which means Falkirk need 2 more points to clinch and Morton need 4 given the better goal differences both have. Dundee United's form has been awful lately but they have the oppportunity to prety much clinch their position in mdweek against Dunfermline at Tannadice. Victory in that game would move them 12 points clear of the Pars with 4 games to go and whilst Queen of the South would be 9 behind, they have a trip to Easter Road next week where victory is unlikely and United are at Ayr United that day.

Relegation
Well St Mirren are finally off the bottom but they will be disappointed with failing to beat Dumbarton at home I'd think given the fixtures ahead of them. The good news was Ayr's defeat at home to Queens meaning they moved up anyway. Given how close it is with the next few teams though, lets just skip to the Playoff discussion and deal with it all in there:

Relegation Playoff
Firstly, Queens are gone from this. They already can't be caught by BOTH Ayr and Raith (either one can do it but not both) and it would take 12 points from 15 for St Mirren to catch them too. And even if all of that happened, Dumbarton would need at least 7 from 12 to equal them too.
Dunfermline aren't gone yet but it looks very likely the 39 points they already have will be more than enough and three more points from 5 games will certainly do them.
So two from four for relegation and playoff spot. Dumbarton had the best day. They remain best placed of the bottom four on 35 points, grabbed a draw in a crucial game at Paisley and with Raith Rovers playing both the other bottom sides in the last fortnight, two of the bottom three coming past them seems unlikely. Still they need another three points somewhere I think. Not sure 35 points will be enough to miss the playoffs. It may well do to avoid outright relegation though.
St Mirren will be pleased to be off the bottom but they missed their second best opportunity for a win between now and season's end. Still, with it likely at least some of United, Falkirk and Hibs will be playing for little by the time they meet them, a derby with Morton where anything might happen, and a home game against a Raith team who haven't won away from home in months, they are in decent shape despite occupying the playoff spot at the moment.
It's a very bad day for Ayr who were well beaten at home and went bottom. The must hope Dundee United beat Dunfermline in midweek and come to Ayr more or less already in the playoffs. If not then a result off United is a big ask. They then have to go to Morton where they will certainly still be fighting for second at that stage and they've lost at home once all season and then welcome Hibs. Hibs will likely be Champions by then which will help their chances of getting something but in reality it looks like Ayr's best hope is to still be within touching distance of Raith by the time the two meet on the final day. They have a much worse goal difference though and are two points behind now so they can't afford to lose any more ground at all.
And then there's Raith Rovers whose form is also awful at the moment, particularly away from home. Apparently deservedly beaten today, they are still outside the playoffs right now but will drop into the playoff spot if St Mirren were to win at Morton on Tuesday. Their last four games are Morton (H), Hibs (A), St Mirren (A) and Ayr United (H). Morton will certainly still be playing for something in that one although Raith are no pushovers at Starks Park. If Hibs don't clinch the title next weekend then, unless other teams win it for them on Saturday week while Hibs are playing in the Cup, the Raith game is their most likely title winning point. Raith will be hoping they already have it won by then, and possibly that they've had an energy sapping extra time semi final with Aberdeen at the weeknd too. They do at least have the sceurity of having those last two games against their closest rivals at the bottom though which means even if they lose the two games before that, they are still likely to have their fate in their own hands heading into the last fortnight.

It's going to be VERY interesting down at the bottom end in the next few weeks..

Fixtures for Tuesday 11th April:
Dundee United v Dunfermline Athletic
Morton v St Mirren

Fixtures for Saturday 15th April:
Dumbarton v Dunfermline Athletic
Falkirk v St Mirren
Hibernian v Queen of the South
Raith Rovers v Morton
Ayr United v Dundee United (5:15pm kick off)

[Skyline Drifter]

Fixtures for Tuesday 11th April:

Dundee United v Dunfermline Athletic
Morton v St Mirren

The last two "games in hand" will be played this Tuesday, after which everyone will be in line again. Nothing will be decided out and out this midweek but there are ramifications at both ends of the table here.

League Title
Both Dundee United and Morton can still theoretically win the title. A loss for Dundee United removes them from contention altogether. In theory a point keeps them alive but in practice with Hibs 20 goals clear, a point finishes them also. Victory however will mean nothing less than a win against Queen of the South would give Hibs a chance to win the title at Easter Road on Saturday as United are a late kick off on Saturday at Ayr and can't drop any more points before the end of the Hibs game.

Even defeat for Morton would leave them alive in the title race but it would open up the chance for Hibs to win the league on Saturday if United also drop something on Tuesday and Falkirk do on Saturday.

Promotion Playoffs
With QoS or Dunfermline both still able to get 54 points, nothing can be clinched on Tuesday but certainly the opportunity arises for both United and Morton to move closer to that goal. Victory for Morton would move them to 53 points and in practical terms would be enough. Victory for United would get them to 51 points. It would also restrict Dunfermline to a maximum of 51 points.

Similarly draws for both would move them closer, and in taking points off Dunfermline, whilst QoS are at Hibernian on Saturday, it's likely that they would be enough.

Relegation & Playoffs
Dunfermline aren't formally out of the hunt yet, and can't be even if they win on Tuesday but in practice a win would be more than enough to take them out of it. A win WOULD remove them from the possibility of 10th.

The significant issue on Tuesday at the bottom is what St Mirren get in their last game in hand. They need a win to move above Raith Rovers into 8th. A draw would still leave them 9th but with a goal difference better than Rovers already it could still be very valuable. A loss would leave them tied with Ayr at the bottom and would be great news for all three of Raith, Dumbarton and Ayr, all of whom will surely be Morton fans for the evening. In particular a defeat would mean two clubs are more than one result behind Dumbarton and make it even less likely they will drop into the bottom two.

[MarkoRaj]

Playoff teams are pretty much settled at this point. The more intriguing battle is for second place imo which you don't really talk about

[Skyline Drifter]

7 hours ago, MarkoRaj said:

Playoff teams are pretty much settled at this point. The more intriguing battle is for second place imo which you don't really talk about

I will address that when it gets nearer to being settled. At this stage clearly all three sides could get it.

[Poet of the Macabre]

I knew all of this information already but doubt I could have set it out in such organised, plain terms. Cheers SD.

[Mr.Blue]

Cheers for the update SD. I've thoroughly enjoyed this season so far. As others have said it's been low on quality at times but the fact that every club still has something to play for with 4 games to go has kept it very interesting. Looking forward to the next couple of weeks. Still think there's a few twists and turns to come.

[Rovers1992/1993]

Cheers for the update SD. I've thoroughly enjoyed this season so far. As others have said it's been low on quality at times but the fact that every club still has something to play for with 4 games to go has kept it very interesting. Looking forward to the next couple of weeks. Still think there's a few twists and turns to come.

I would rather we had absolutely nothing to play for with 4 games to go tbh.

[bridge of allan bairn]

For the first time this season checked the dates for the play offs tonight. "If" falkirk finish 2nd then it looks like Morton will play United 3 times in a week. One of them will drop points as they have to play each other in the last game of the season. Think we will drop points v st mirren Saturday so plenty twist and turns. Exciting times

[Skyline Drifter]

Results from Tuesday April 11th:
Dundee United 1 - 0 Dunfermline Athletic
Morton 1 - 4 St Mirren

A couple of interesting results tonight with ramifications at both ends of the table. After a bad run Dundee United went a long way towards clinching their playoff spot and moved up to 3rd. Morton dropped to 4th with their worst home result in a very long time. Dunfermline's chances of a promotion playoff place have gone and they are not entirely out of the relegation playoff race yet. Great night for St Mirren who moved out of the bottom two with a fine win.

League Title
A decent night for Hibs without playing. Morton's loss opens up one possibility for them to win the league on Saturday though Dundee United's win removed the possibility of them winning the title directly themselves with a draw. They can win the title on Saturday by beating QoS at home as long as Falkirk fail to win at home to St Mirren. A draw would be enough on Saturday if Falkirk lose, and Morton and Dundee United both fail to win BUT as United are playing late on Saturday they can;t do so whilst actually at Easter Road.

Promotion Playoffs
Dundee United went a long way towards clinching a playoff spot tonight. They probably removed Dunfermline from being any threat too. Morton dropped to 4th after their big loss, Dunfermline can now only get 51 points which means Falkirk are out of reach, United need 1 point and Morton 2 points. Queen of the South now trail 4th placed Morton by 8 points (and 8 goals). Morton need five more points to clinch a playoff spot. If Queens lose at Easter Road on Saturday as expected then Falkirk would be in, United would need a point at Ayr later to clinch and Morton would clinch with a win over Raith in the afternoon.

As far as the race between the three for 2nd, 3rd and 4th is concerned, with 2 points across the three sides, it's too close to discuss meaningfully at this point. However, sitting 2nd just now and with a much better goal difference than the other two, Falkirk are certainly in pole position for runners up.

Relegation & Playoff
St Mirren's win moves them out of the playoff spot and up to 8th. They are now just 1 point behind Dumbarton and probably the most "in form" side in the division. It's looking less and less likely they will be involved and, whilst it was a bad night for all the other three sides seriously involved (we'll ignore Dunfermline in practice), it was especially bad for Raith and Ayr. They are now the bottom two, Ayr's remaining fixtures are Dundee United (H), Morton (A). Hibernian (H) and Raith (A). Raith's games are Morton (H), Hibernian (A), St Mirren (A), Ayr (H). On the face of it it's hard to see Ayr, who were awful on Saturday, winning another point before the final week with three of the top four to play. If they don't do that, and Raith get a point anywhere, then Ayr will be down. However, United have been poor recently even if they fell over the line tonight, Morton's home fortress seems to have collapsed a bit now and Hibs will likely be already champions and on the beach by the time they roll into Ayr so it's not completely hopeless.

For Raith's part, Easter Road, with Hibs quite possibly clinching the title that night, looks a forlorn hope for points which St Mirren's form and Raith's away record make anything in Paisley unlikely too though if per chance St Mirren are already safe by then which they may well be, then they would have a better chance. They aren't bad at home though and will harbour some hopes of points from Morton on Saturday. If not then a last day shoot out with Ayr looks likely.

In all likelihood, if Ayr and Raith have any hope at all of not being the bottom two they probably need neither St Mirren nor Dumbarton to win another game. I think a win would probably save Dumbarton, certainly from 10th and probably from 9th. A home game against Dunfermline on Saturday now largely playing for nothing may offer a good chance of that. QoS may be playing for nothing the following week also. However if they are still in trouble at that point then closing games at Dundee and at home to Falkirk look a problem.

Three points would probably be enough for St Mirren too as long as they don't lose at home to Raith.

Fixtures for Saturday 15th April:
Dumbarton v Dunfermline Athletic
Falkirk v St Mirren
Hibernian v Queen of the South
Raith Rovers v Morton
Ayr United v Dundee United (5:15pm kick off)

[Poet of the Macabre]

We apparently haven't lost at Dumbarton in 36 years so I'm hopeful we'll get at least a point on Saturday. We might have enough already but another win would make me feel comfortable.