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The Relegation Battle


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43 minutes ago, ayrmad said:

Not debatable at all unless you're suggesting the combined probabilities of Raith and Hibs winning is approx 50%, I certainly don't see it that way, I think Saints will be 4/6 to 1/2 not to finish 9th.

Hibs were 1/2 against Raith so I'd expect them to be longer odds against Saints, Raith will need to be somewhere in the region of 1/2 to 1/3 next week for Saints not to be clear favourites, nobody would dream of touching them at those odds surely.

Well ok.

While each result has a good chance of happening, the chance of both happening will be less than 50%.

You're therefore right in saying St Mirren are favourites to finish outside the bottom two.  They aren't terribly strong ones though.

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Just now, Monkey Tennis said:

Well ok.

While each result has a good chance of happening, the chance of both happening will be less than 50%.

You're therefore right in saying St Mirren are favourites to finish outside the bottom two.  They aren't terribly strong ones though.

Correct, 60/40 give or take 5, anything could happen next week, I think Saints are more than capable of saving their own bacon but I think Raith could do an Accies if they can score 1 or 2 early doors, I've never watched an Ayr side that can't be arsed as much as this shower, nothing against Raith but I hope Dumbarton don't get the deck chairs out just in case Ayr have a spectacular capitulation.

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1 hour ago, No_Problemo said:

Would rather we just lye down against Raith next week, and hope Hibs win.

We don't want another full time team in league one again next season, and St Mirren are far more likely to win the play offs than Raith.

Well there's some sporting integrity right there. 

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1 minute ago, Salvo Montalbano said:

Surely they won't lose and Raith win by a, what, 9 goal swing? And that assumes St Mirren get something at Easter Road where they'll want to put on a show before getting the trophy. Dumbarton are safe, surely? Surely?

We'll be walking about without a care in the world if we go a goal down next week.

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Correct, 60/40 give or take 5, anything could happen next week, I think Saints are more than capable of saving their own bacon but I think Raith could do an Accies if they can score 1 or 2 early doors, I've never watched an Ayr side that can't be arsed as much as this shower, nothing against Raith but I hope Dumbarton don't get the deck chairs out just in case Ayr have a spectacular capitulation.


There is absolutely no chance of that happening. We won't even win, let alone by that sort of margin.
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cant see us thrashing the sons on our current form but if we do it wont be by a big margin so unless ayr have a morten melt down the sons are safe. i can see raith winning then its down to how the midden get on against hibs which is hard to call.  exciting end to this if you are not involved.

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2 hours ago, Poet of the Macabre said:

St Mirren will finish 9th. Raith will beat Ayr and they'll lose at Hibs.

We are more than capable of getting all 3 points at Easter road. We roasted them in Paisley a few weeks back. We have everything to play for while they will be in party mood.

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6 minutes ago, glenburn bud said:

We are more than capable of getting all 3 points at Easter road. We roasted them in Paisley a few weeks back. We have everything to play for while they will be in party mood.

I think St Mirren will draw at worst next week and if we claw back a 9 goal deficit on Dumbarton I'll curl oot a Mr Whippy on the centre circle, season it and savour every last morsel with a fork and knife.

I can't wait for this shitfest of a season to finish but it looks as though our agony will be prolonged with the playoffs.

RRFC: Promotion playoffs to relegation candidates in the course of a season.

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7 hours ago, paisleysaints said:


This was a better post than your whole quarter by quarter one emoji106.png

We'd have gladly taken 9th months ago and nothings changed.

Away and f**k you drivveling fanny.

I refuse to believe that if you finished 9th from here you would "gladly take it"

absolute nonsense.

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Away and f**k you drivveling fanny.
I refuse to believe that if you finished 9th from here you would "gladly take it"
absolute nonsense.

[emoji23] [emoji23] check the hostility ya spunk bucket. You believe anything you like considering we've got Hibs away and Raith play Ayr.
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[emoji23] [emoji23] check the hostility ya spunk bucket. You believe anything you like considering we've got Hibs away and Raith play Ayr.

You're honestly saying you'd be happy with 9th from this position?

that is absolute nonsense.
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On ‎29‎/‎04‎/‎2017 at 21:24, ayrmad said:

Correct, 60/40 give or take 5, anything could happen next week, I think Saints are more than capable of saving their own bacon but I think Raith could do an Accies if they can score 1 or 2 early doors, I've never watched an Ayr side that can't be arsed as much as this shower, nothing against Raith but I hope Dumbarton don't get the deck chairs out just in case Ayr have a spectacular capitulation.

For a team to lose 5-0 one week and win 9-0 the next would be pretty incredible.. Ayr are bad but not that bad.. and Raith are certainly not that good.

ETA - I suppose if Dumbarton lost by a few Raith wouldn't need as much as 9 but still can't see it.

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You're honestly saying you'd be happy with 9th from this position?

that is absolute nonsense.

Well you see I actually said months ago. And considering the mess we were yes. Although slightly disappointed maybe me personally I'd still take it. As everyone kept pointing out we had a horrific run in etc.
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For a team to lose 5-0 one week and win 9-0 the next would be pretty incredible.. Ayr are bad but not that bad.. and Raith are certainly not that good.


Wouldn't have to win 9-0, they just need a 9 goal swing. Raith could win 4-0 and will finish 8th if Dumbarton lose 5-0. Not going to happen though.

I do expect Raith to win however so I think we will finish 9th if we lose at Easter Road. Whether we do or not... Who can say. A lot of it will come down to how Hibs approach the game.
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Well you see I actually said months ago. And considering the mess we were yes. Although slightly disappointed maybe me personally I'd still take it. As everyone kept pointing out we had a horrific run in etc.


You also said "nothing's changed" directly after that.

so were were talking absolute nonsense and you are a drivelling fanny, as i said?
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Just now, Lex said:

 

 


Wouldn't have to win 9-0, they just need a 9 goal swing. Raith could win 4-0 and will finish 8th if Dumbarton lose 5-0. Not going to happen though.

I do expect Raith to win however so I think we will finish 9th if we lose at Easter Road. Whether we do or not... Who can say. A lot of it will come down to how Hibs approach the game.

 

Yeh realised that after I posted it, main thing is us doing the business ourselves... no reason we can't get a result at Hibs. Exciting last day anyway.

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