kaisayr

The Relegation Battle

298 posts in this topic

Dunfermline 

Points: 32

Fixtures: Morton, HIBS, RAITH, Arabs, Sons, FALKIRK, MORTON, Queens

Today's result has some people on here suggesting that they're in the mire alongside the rest of us. I don't quite think so and I doubt the Pars fans will have too many sleepless nights over the coming weeks. That said, the next two games are tricky and failure to pick up any points could lead to some twitchiness down East End Park. My prediction: 43 points 

Raith Rovers

Points: 32

Fixtures: QUEENS, Falkirk, Pars, MORTON, Hibs, St. Mirren, AYR

Hughes arrival never seen an immediate upturn in fortunes however there are now signs of improvement. Victory today over an under par Dundee United hasn't completely convinced anyone yet though. Very winnable fixture next followed by some daunting ones. It looks for all the world that the last fixture of the season v Ayr could define the season of both clubs. My prediction: 40 points

Dumbarton

Points: 31

Fixtures: Ayr, MORTON, St. Mirren, PARS, queens, Arabs, FALKIRK

Will be severely disappointed to have lost ground today despite a very good result at Easter Road. An apparent terrible performance at Dunfermline aside they've been turning in very credible performances all year. Next weeks game at Ayr another cup final. My prediction: 39 points

Ayr

Points: 28

Fixtures: SONS, Arabs, St. Mirren, QUEENS, ARABS, Morton, HIBS, Raith

A victory over Dumbarton will see Ayr climb out of the bottom two. Their away form has been very respectable but they will need to do more at Somerset Park. Prior to today they were beginning to look like certs for 10th but that result could be a shot in the arm. My prediction: 38 points

St. Mirren

Points: 27

Fixtures: AYR, SONS, Falkirk, Morton, Arabs, RAITH, Hibs

St. Mirren have undoubtedly turned the corner and popular consensus is that they will now survive. They'll be looking to gather maximum points from their next two games to take them up the league. Failure to do so could leave them with work to do though and beyond the next two matches their run in is very tough. My prediction: 40 points.

Today we learnt that Dunfermline aren't safe and that all of the sides below them have some fight left in them. Dumbarton will be disappointed to lose ground but arguably it's been a worse day for St Mirren who would have felt three points would have been likely to lift them to 9th. We're entering silly season and predicting results is nigh on impossible but how do we think our teams will fare in the run in?

 

 

 

 

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If you aren't mathematically safe then you are involved

/thread

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Where's Queens? Wouldnae 100% rule them out either at the moment.

Anyway Ayr bottom and Midden in the play offs.

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This time next week will be absolute scenes at the bottom.

We all just opened that fucking pit up.  

17:00, 25 March 2017

Queen of the South 36

Raith 33

Dunfermline 32 (game in hand)

Dumbarton 31

Ayr 31(game in hand)

St Mirren 27

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The spoon-burners aren't actually escaping their fate, because every plucky result for them is being matched by similar results for Ayr, Raith and Dumbarton.  

Absolutely delicious. 

1428418639-d2436d6c6a8200a35d65ab4efa46a31a-600x397.jpg

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7 hours ago, kaisayr said:

Ayr
Points: 29
Fixtures: SONS, Arabs, St. Mirren, QUEENS, ARABS, Morton, HIBS, Raith

A victory over Dumbarton will see Ayr climb out of the bottom two. Their away form has been very respectable but they will need to do more at Somerset Park. Prior to today they were beginning to look like certs for 10th but that result could be a shot in the arm. My prediction: 38 points

Only if you win by ten clear goals ;)

Good post though, incredible that we've scored 39 goals this season (most away from home), only Falkirk and Hibernian have more. I'm hopeful that, that firepower might prove to be the difference between us finishing 9th/10th and 8th - but I still have the fear that the injury time collapse against you lot might come back to haunt us.

St Mirren will be playing Championship football next season, I'm sure of that. They will not finish 10th, and they'll win the playoffs if they drop into them. Before yesterday I'd have said Raith/Ayr would be tenth after their recent rank performances at the Rock. Now it could easily be any of the three of us.

Looking at the teams individually I'm starting to think Raith could be in trouble. We score plenty, St Mirren are on an upward trajectory, Ayr don't lose away from home, Dunfermline have a decent squad and look pretty comfortable. What's in Raith's favour? Hardie is a goalscorer, they have a reasonably competent defence, but their squad is unbalanced and not high on quality. 

Naturally we will now finish 10th and Raith will almost make the playoffs at the right end.

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8 hours ago, kaisayr said:

Dunfermline 
Points: 32
Fixtures: Morton, HIBS, RAITH, Arabs, Sons, FALKIRK, MORTON, Queens

Today's result has some people on here suggesting that they're in the mire alongside the rest of us. I don't quite think so and I doubt the Pars fans will have too many sleepless nights over the coming weeks. That said, the next two games are tricky and failure to pick up any points could lead to some twitchiness down East End Park. My prediction: 43 points 

Raith Rovers
Points: 32
Fixtures: QUEENS, Falkirk, Pars, MORTON, Hibs, St. Mirren, AYR

Hughes arrival never seen an immediate upturn in fortunes however there are now signs of improvement. Victory today over an under par Dundee United hasn't completely convinced anyone yet though. Very winnable fixture next followed by some daunting ones. It looks for all the world that the last fixture of the season v Ayr could define the season of both clubs. My prediction: 40 points

Dumbarton
Points: 31
Fixtures: Ayr, MORTON, St. Mirren, PARS, queens, Arabs, FALKIRK

Will be severely disappointed to have lost ground today despite a very good result at Easter Road. An apparent terrible performance at Dunfermline aside they've been turning in very credible performances all year. Next weeks game at Ayr another cup final. My prediction: 39 points

Ayr
Points: 29
Fixtures: SONS, Arabs, St. Mirren, QUEENS, ARABS, Morton, HIBS, Raith

A victory over Dumbarton will see Ayr climb out of the bottom two. Their away form has been very respectable but they will need to do more at Somerset Park. Prior to today they were beginning to look like certs for 10th but that result could be a shot in the arm. My prediction: 38 points

St. Mirren
Points: 27
Fixtures: AYR, SONS, Falkirk, Morton, Arabs, RAITH, Hibs

St. Mirren have undoubtedly turned the corner and popular consensus is that they will now survive. They'll be looking to gather maximum points from their next two games to take them up the league. Failure to do so could leave them with work to do though and beyond the next two matches their run in is very tough. My prediction: 40 points.

Today we learnt that Dunfermline aren't safe and that all of the sides below them have some fight left in them. Dumbarton will be disappointed to lose ground but arguably it's been a worse day for St Mirren who would have felt three points would have been likely to lift them to 9th. We're entering silly season and predicting results is nigh on impossible but how do we think our teams will fare in the run in?

 

 

 

You've missed a team.

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49 minutes ago, Sonsteam of 08 said:

Only if you win by ten clear goals ;)

 

A 6-0 Ayr win on Saturday would see us go above you on GD, Ayrs would be -12, Dumbarton would be -14 :P

Edited by callum-ayr
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You've missed a team.


Fair point actually.

Queen of the South
Points: 35
Fixtures: Raith, ARABS, Ayr, Hibs, DUMBARTON, Falkirk, PARS

One point from twelve and if the slump continues Queen of the South could find themselves in a very precarious position. Defeat at Starks Park next week will see them joined on points by the Fifers. Not obvious where the next victory will come from but it could be they only need one.

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Yesterday was a kick in the nads. A point at Easter Road would normally be a good result for us, but with the other 3 teams winning we lost ground to everyone. That 2-2 at home to Aye is looking even more painful.

I think being realistic we need to take at least 7 from our games V QotS, Ayr and St Mirren. All away games. Morton at home is a tough one, Dunfermline have had our number this season and Falkirk may well need to win on the final day of the season.

Achievable? Sure.

A huge ask? Unfortunately it's massive

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We were the main winners yesterday. Absolute kick in the balls for Dumbarton to get a point at Hibs and lose ground, and for Ayr/St Mirren to get great away wins and not gain any ground.

 

 

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IMG_1489920194.502547.jpg

Mental to think we were 1/6 to be relegated a few weeks ago.

Dumbarton and Raith odds are pretty high. Value for money could be Saints at 3/1 though given our run in.

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IMG_1489920194.502547.thumb.jpg.517add78d3b371d81318651660a74a89.jpg

Mental to think we were 1/6 to be relegated a few weeks ago.

Dumbarton and Raith odds are pretty high. Value for money could be Saints at 3/1 though given our run in.


Ayr must be favourites, St Mirren will be fine. Both Raith and Dumbarton odds look a little high though.
Btw don't think Saints run in is any harder than anyone else.
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52 minutes ago, kaisayr said:

 


Fair point actually.

Queen of the South
Points: 35
Fixtures: Raith, ARABS, Ayr, Hibs, DUMBARTON, Falkirk, PARS

One point from twelve and if the slump continues Queen of the South could find themselves in a very precarious position. Defeat at Starks Park next week will see them joined on points by the Fifers. Not obvious where the next victory will come from but it could be they only need one.
 

 

The slump is not really a recent development. If you take the first 6 games off every team's record, we would be bottom of the league on 19 points from 23 games, along with Ayr who have played a game less.

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Ayr must be favourites, St Mirren will be fine. Both Raith and Dumbarton odds look a little high though.
Btw don't think Saints run in is any harder than anyone else.


Can work both ways play the top 4 in the last few games i suppose, we have shown we can beat Hibs and Utd recently, the top 4 is pretty much set too so whilst their could be a battle for 2nd, maybe 1st, the focus will surely be preparing for the play offs.

Much more interesting at both ends now!
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10 hours ago, kaisayr said:

QueeDunfermline 
Points: 32
Fixtures: Morton, HIBS, RAITH, Arabs, Sons, FALKIRK, MORTON, Queens

Today's result has some people on here suggesting that they're in the mire alongside the rest of us. I don't quite think so and I doubt the Pars fans will have too many sleepless nights over the coming weeks. That said, the next two games are tricky and failure to pick up any points could lead to some twitchiness down East End Park. My prediction: 43 points 

Raith Rovers
Points: 32
Fixtures: QUEENS, Falkirk, Pars, MORTON, Hibs, St. Mirren, AYR

Hughes arrival never seen an immediate upturn in fortunes however there are now signs of improvement. Victory today over an under par Dundee United hasn't completely convinced anyone yet though. Very winnable fixture next followed by some daunting ones. It looks for all the world that the last fixture of the season v Ayr could define the season of both clubs. My prediction: 40 points

Dumbarton
Points: 31
Fixtures: Ayr, MORTON, St. Mirren, PARS, queens, Arabs, FALKIRK

Will be severely disappointed to have lost ground today despite a very good result at Easter Road. An apparent terrible performance at Dunfermline aside they've been turning in very credible performances all year. Next weeks game at Ayr another cup final. My prediction: 39 points

Ayr
Points: 29
Fixtures: SONS, Arabs, St. Mirren, QUEENS, ARABS, Morton, HIBS, Raith

A victory over Dumbarton will see Ayr climb out of the bottom two. Their away form has been very respectable but they will need to do more at Somerset Park. Prior to today they were beginning to look like certs for 10th but that result could be a shot in the arm. My prediction: 38 points

St. Mirren
Points: 27
Fixtures: AYR, SONS, Falkirk, Morton, Arabs, RAITH, Hibs

St. Mirren have undoubtedly turned the corner and popular consensus is that they will now survive. They'll be looking to gather maximum points from their next two games to take them up the league. Failure to do so could leave them with work to do though and beyond the next two matches their run in is very tough. My prediction: 40 points.

Today we learnt that Dunfermline aren't safe and that all of the sides below them have some fight left in them. Dumbarton will be disappointed to lose ground but arguably it's been a worse day for St Mirren who would have felt three points would have been likely to lift them to 9th. We're entering silly season and predicting results is nigh on impossible but how do we think our teams will fare in the run in?

 

 

 

If you convert your predicted points gain for each team into wins and draws:

Dunfermline with 8 games remaining need 11 points - 3 wins 2 draws 3 defeats is plausible but look at their fixtures and ask where the three wins are coming from?

Raith need 8 points - maybe home wins v Queens and Ayr and a point from Morton and a point from?? ...hmm!

and so on.

 

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Each game a mountain

Dumbarton is Vesuvius.

Forrest coming of age game

2-1

eruptions 

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We MUST win our next 2 games to have any chance of being in the mix. Think we can certainly beat Dumbarton at home next week however we need to turn up at home which doesn't always happen. For St Mirren away the following week i'm obviously not as hopeful for a win and would maybe even take a draw from that if other results went our way.

On our chances of survival i would love to say that we're going to finish 8th however the best i think we can get is 9th, hopefully i'm wrong but i fear the last 2 home games to Arabs and Hibs could be a deciding factor in where we finish. The last game of the season away to Raith looks more likely as the weeks go by to be a case of whoever wins that game stays up.

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10 hours ago, kaisayr said:

Dunfermline 
Points: 32
Fixtures: Morton, HIBS, RAITH, Arabs, Sons, FALKIRK, MORTON, Queens

Today's result has some people on here suggesting that they're in the mire alongside the rest of us. I don't quite think so and I doubt the Pars fans will have too many sleepless nights over the coming weeks. That said, the next two games are tricky and failure to pick up any points could lead to some twitchiness down East End Park. My prediction: 43 points 

Raith Rovers
Points: 32
Fixtures: QUEENS, Falkirk, Pars, MORTON, Hibs, St. Mirren, AYR

Hughes arrival never seen an immediate upturn in fortunes however there are now signs of improvement. Victory today over an under par Dundee United hasn't completely convinced anyone yet though. Very winnable fixture next followed by some daunting ones. It looks for all the world that the last fixture of the season v Ayr could define the season of both clubs. My prediction: 40 points

Dumbarton
Points: 31
Fixtures: Ayr, MORTON, St. Mirren, PARS, queens, Arabs, FALKIRK

Will be severely disappointed to have lost ground today despite a very good result at Easter Road. An apparent terrible performance at Dunfermline aside they've been turning in very credible performances all year. Next weeks game at Ayr another cup final. My prediction: 39 points

Ayr
Points: 29
Fixtures: SONS, Arabs, St. Mirren, QUEENS, ARABS, Morton, HIBS, Raith

A victory over Dumbarton will see Ayr climb out of the bottom two. Their away form has been very respectable but they will need to do more at Somerset Park. Prior to today they were beginning to look like certs for 10th but that result could be a shot in the arm. My prediction: 38 points

St. Mirren
Points: 27
Fixtures: AYR, SONS, Falkirk, Morton, Arabs, RAITH, Hibs

St. Mirren have undoubtedly turned the corner and popular consensus is that they will now survive. They'll be looking to gather maximum points from their next two games to take them up the league. Failure to do so could leave them with work to do though and beyond the next two matches their run in is very tough. My prediction: 40 points.

Today we learnt that Dunfermline aren't safe and that all of the sides below them have some fight left in them. Dumbarton will be disappointed to lose ground but arguably it's been a worse day for St Mirren who would have felt three points would have been likely to lift them to 9th. We're entering silly season and predicting results is nigh on impossible but how do we think our teams will fare in the run in?

 

 

 

By the way i know it's wishful thinking but we've unfortunately only got 28 points.

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By the way i know it's wishful thinking but we've unfortunately only got 28 points.


Good spot. That's why I thought a win next week would lift us to 8th.
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