No Voters - what say you?

[Jambomo]

21 minutes ago, Skyline Drifter said:

Yes, I wasn't talking about state pension. It will be unchanged I expect. It may even be marginally better. I was talking about personal pension funds. I've been paying into one for years and yes, it is fairly gubbed given the markets over the last decade and the long term is completely uncertain regardless of who goes where, The short term however will undeniably see the big pension companies relocate to England as that's where their customers are. Those of us in Scotland will end up with pots held by smaller hived off firms and however it happens, both lots will end up bearing the restructure costs through increased charges and reduced economies of scale.

I definitely think that was the case in the 1st referendum, I'm not sure that it will be now because of Brexit. Most of these firms aren't only based in the UK but also abroad and work quite internationally. I don't see them relocating until the shape of Brexit is known and I suspect they'll go where they have access to the largest markets which may no longer be the UK.

ETA - I also meant to say thanks for responding in this thread. I think its good to be able to have a good debate about this rather than name-calling etc.

Edited March 14, 2017 by Jambomo

[ICTChris]

Just now, git-intae-thum said:

There are no official figures as such. They are based on an unofficial survey of business. This is riddled with holes. It does not stop unionist commentators continuing to make the claim though. The best description I have found re the complexities of measuring this is from the autonomy Scotland blog:

"If you run a hotel in Edinburgh and lease a room to someone coming from Liverpool, does that count as a transfer of money from rUK into Scotland?

If you run a haulage company in Manchester and buy fuel in Falkirk does that count?

If you produce goods in Edinburgh then ship them to France via an English haulage company and through an English port then how does the profit break down?

What happens if a company in Dundee create something but the final packaging and shipping to customers happens in England?

Say you run a business in Glasgow but the registered office is still your old address in Bristol?"

In effect unionist claims are bollox. No one knows the real figure, but it is likely to significantly undervalue Scots exports to outside the rUK.

Are there any examples of goods and/or services being shipped from Scotland to England, or anywhere else in the rUK, before being sold on to the EU?  

[Skyline Drifter]

11 minutes ago, Jambomo said:

I definitely think that was the case in the 1st referendum, I'm not sure that it will be now because of Brexit. Most of these firms aren't only based in the UK but also abroad and work quite internationally. I don't see them relocating until the shape of Brexit is known and I suspect they'll go where they have access to the largest markets which may no longer be the UK.

Again that may well be true. And it therefore may not matter what we do in that respect if it's going to happen anyway. We can say for relative certainty, they won't stay in Scotland.

Your first sentence is interesting, and I agree with it entirely, but there was much screaming during the first referendum that it wouldn't be the case and "it didn't matter where the nameplate was". Anyone with the slightest of idea how the industry works would have known it did matter. It still does.

Edited March 14, 2017 by Skyline Drifter

[Jambomo]

1 minute ago, Skyline Drifter said:

Again that may well be true. And it therefore may not therefore matter what we do in that respect if it's going to happen anyway. We can say for relative certainty, they won't stay in Scotland.

Your first sentence is interesting, and I agree with it entirely, but there was much screaming during the first referendum that it wouldn't be the case and "it didn't matter where the nameplate was". Anyone with the slightest of idea how the industry works would have known it did matter. It still does.

I think that nearer the time, if we have a reasonable assurance from the EU that we can become members in a reasonable time-frame, then staying in Scotland is a possibility. If not then yes, I'd expect them to move to the likes of Dublin, Frankfurt etc. Freedom of movement for staff and services is more important to them I think.

[Daydream]

A huge No voter in my work claims we could never afford to be independent.   How right or wrong is she? 

 

[git-intae-thum]

26 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

Are there any examples of goods and/or services being shipped from Scotland to England, or anywhere else in the rUK, before being sold on to the EU?  

Read my post again. 

Can I give specific examples.....no. The figures do not exist.

However you have to reasonably assume that there will be numerous such examples.

As such the figures quoted by unionist commentators regarding Scots/rUK balance of trade are bogus.

[git-intae-thum]

14 minutes ago, Daydream said:

A huge No voter in my work claims we could never afford to be independent.   How right or wrong is she? 

 

Tell her to bolt. Do your research and make up yer own mind.

[Crùbag]

I hope to hear more of Alistair Darling's speech at 2.00

"... rioting, the CS cannisters have already been issued..."

 

[welshbairn]

21 minutes ago, Daydream said:

A huge No voter in my work claims we could never afford to be independent.   How right or wrong is she? 

 

Depends on whether we have to feed her.

[paranoid android]

The just love a length of the Conservative Westminster boaby.

[Granny Danger]

1 hour ago, Ross. said:

With regards to pensions, Scotland is in a better position than rUK, ironically because of issues that I would hope an independent Scotland is able to tackle. We die younger and as a result pay out less per capita in this area.

It's a good point but it will take a marketing genius to turn that into a catchy pro-YES slogan.  

1 hour ago, Skyline Drifter said:

Yes, I wasn't talking about state pension. It will be unchanged I expect. It may even be marginally better. I was talking about personal pension funds. I've been paying into one for years and yes, it is fairly gubbed given the markets over the last decade and the long term is completely uncertain regardless of who goes where, The short term however will undeniably see the big pension companies relocate to England as that's where their customers are. Those of us in Scotland will end up with pots held by smaller hived off firms and however it happens, both lots will end up bearing the restructure costs through increased charges and reduced economies of scale.

I think that's a lot of absolute nonsense. I have a SIPP and am about 5 years away from retiring.  I will still have the same access to markets that I have now and if I do so will all the major fund managers.

 

[welshbairn]

35 minutes ago, Daydream said:

A huge No voter in my work claims we could never afford to be independent.   How right or wrong is she? 

 

We could certainly afford to be independent, comparing our economy with other small European nations. I think we will do better tuning the economy to our own needs rather than the South East of England, and we will prosper in the long run. There are no cast iron certainties though,  other than that she is definitely wrong.

[DI Bruce Robertson]

First and foremost I do not believe the economic case for independence stands up to the slightest scrutiny. The SNP's attempts at a financial plan for independence last time were laughable and I'm pretty sure by son's P2 class could have come up with something about as worthwhile. I appreciate the sentiment that a post independence Scotland may not be run by the SNP (in practice I suspect it would be for many years to come) but no matter who is in charge you can only work with the tools you have.
I think we'll lose a lot of financial sector jobs and it will create labour market problems both with rUk and with Europe, though the latter is probably going to happen anyway post Brexit (which I was also against). I think pensions will be a problem with the main pension funds relocating to England (Standard Life) and the costs of that will inevitably be borne by investors one way or another.
From a personal point of view I don't have a problem being "British". I'm Scottish but I don't think that's incompatible. I have as much or more in common with English people as I do with the rest of Scotland. That may partly be a geographic thing being as we're right on the Border but I don't see the governing of the UK by a UK parliament as being any sort of problem. I think the Scottish parliament is an unnecessary layer of bureaucracy that just costs us all a fortune. I'd merrily disband it tomorrow if it were up to me.

Hi Drifter, can you answer one question from me? Do you think that Scotland would lose more financial jobs out of Europe than they would within the EU?
My thinking is, major financial institutions & traders will move to a market more suited to their needs, that means City of London losing many trade houses, or people within, to trade more centrally with Frankfurt & Paris, I think Edinburgh in the EU would be a more pragmatic decision.
Don't get me wrong, I think the whole betting on futures & people's lives is a horrendous practice, but, why do you think London is better than Edinburgh?

[ICTChris]

Read my post again. 
Can I give specific examples.....no. The figures do not exist.
However you have to reasonably assume that there will be numerous such examples.
As such the figures quoted by unionist commentators regarding Scots/rUK balance of trade are bogus.

The export figures you are referring to are collected by the Scottish Government and published by them. The collection methods for the figures ask the companies exporting to specify the location of the customer so if someone was sending exports by freight to the EU via England (a lot of companies must do that, given that England is directly between Scotland and Europe) that would be recorded as being an export from Scotland to the EU, not an export to the rUK.

Even if you don't believe the statistics collected in this, then you'd surely have some examples of Scottish companies sending exports to England to be shipped on?

[Sooky]

This is a very good thread. I'll throw in my tuppence worth when I'm not as busy, but it's nice to see everyone being respectful.

Just to say quickly though, there's no reason why Scotland can't be independent. It's certainly capable of it, I just don't think it's the best thing to do.

[Cerberus]

I get it from a nationalistic point of view but not from a financial one.
The deal we get from the UK might not be exactly proportional to what we give but it's more than decent.
IMO having Hollyrood and so many MPs at WM is pretty good and means things like the NHS can be ring fenced if we want.
Scotland is well represented and a far better place to live than most places in England.
The ideas that we could build loads of new hospitals with the money we spend on Trident or create a Utopian society reek like shitey Brexit post truth claims.

That said, Scottish people who are very Unionist or subservient to English are horrible OFTW.

[DI Bruce Robertson]

I hope to hear more of Alistair Darling's speech at 2.00
"... rioting, the CS cannisters have already been issued..."
 

This is a thread for genuine debate and no insults.

[Fullerene]

2 hours ago, AyrTroopMajor said:

Does it not bother you that we, as a nation, are voting predominantly on the opposite end of the political spectrum as those down south? Its not a new argument and I appreciate that, but are you okay with the fact that, even if every single person in Scotland voted for the same political party, it still wouldn't make a damned bit of difference to the result of a general election?

Some people would say this is a reason to be out of the EU as well - since the EU outnumber us by 100 to 1 (or only 92 to 1 after Brexit).

[Dunning1874]

2 hours ago, Skyline Drifter said:

From a personal point of view I don't have a problem being "British". I'm Scottish but I don't think that's incompatible. I have as much or more in common with English people as I do with the rest of Scotland. That may partly be a geographic thing being as we're right on the Border but I don't see the governing of the UK by a UK parliament as being any sort of problem.

I agree entirely but don't see this as an argument against independence. Just as there are many English/Welsh/Northern Irish people I have more in common with than other Scots, there are people from outwith Britain I have more in common with than other British people; the sense of how much of an identity I share with other Scottish or British people doesn't enter into my thinking on the correct constitutional arrangement.

It's an entirely political decision that has nothing to do with identity and even if Scotland was independent we could continue having those shared relationships with people in rUK that give us as much in common with them, just as currently being in the same nation-state as them doesn't mean I necessarily have more in common with them than people across Europe. As there will be people in Gateshead I have more in common with than others in Greenock, there'll be people in Gdansk I have more in common with than people in Gateshead. Identities and common interests don't stop at state borders, so creating one between Scotland and England shouldn't prevent the continuation of those common ties.

[Daydream]

This is a very good thread. I'll throw in my tuppence worth when I'm not as busy, but it's nice to see everyone being respectful.

Just to say quickly though, there's no reason why Scotland can't be independent. It's certainly capable of it, I just don't think it's the best thing to do.

Is there any set of circumstances that would ever change your mind?