Illgresi Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Having listened to that abortion of a Sportsound episode the other night, I thought we might like to discuss the run up to the split and have a guess at how the table will look at the end of the season. The four teams that have a realistic chance being Aberdeen, Rangers, Hearts, and St. Johnstone. Fixtures up to the split are: Aberdeen - Motherwell (h), Kilmarnock (a), County (h), Hamilton (a), Motherwell (h), Hearts (h), Dundee (a), ICT (h), Rangers (h), St. Johnstone (a) Rangers - Dundee (a), ICT (a), St. Johnstone (h), Celtic (a), Hamilton (h), Motherwell (h), Kilmarnock (a), Aberdeen (a), Thistle (h) Hearts - ICT (h), Thistle (a), County (h), Hamilton (h), Aberdeen (a), Celtic (h), St. Johnstone (a), Dundee (h), Kilmarnock (a) St. Johnstone - County (a), Kilmarnock (h), Rangers (a), Dundee (h), Motherwell (a), Hamilton (a), Hearts (h), ICT (a), Aberdeen (h) From a Dons perspective our remaining fixtures are all but perfect, with the only one I'm somewhat worried about being McDiarmid park just before the split. By that I mean, the games against the tougher teams (or teams we usually struggle against) are all at home. I see no reason why we shouldn't be looking to take 28-30 points from our remaining fixtures before the split. That said, we're still liable for a complete fuck up somewhere along the lines. For the filth, the next four games a crucial. They're on a poor run of form, and two away ties up next is really not what they need; especially one of them being a Friday night trip to Inverness. Then a home tie against St. Johnstone is also a tough fixture, with the Celtic game being a write off. If they fail to take 7-9 points from the first four games then Hearts will be breathing down their necks by the Jambos come to Pittodrie. I think they'll probably win against Dundee, draw with ICT and St. Johnstone, get utterly hosed by Celtic, win three straight then get beat at Pittodrie, and scrape a win against Thistle making 17 points. Hearts are a tough one to predict at the minute given how different their squad is. Who knows whether the last two results are just a wee purple patch? That said, their next four fixtures are kind to them, and I would expect them to take all 12 points, setting up a cracking match at Pittodrie. I'd expect Celtic to beat them, and would think they'll get a point at most at McDiarmid, followed by another couple of wins; giving them 19 points in all. St. Johnstone are another tough pick because they're usually very resolute, but also prone to a lapse in concentration (usually an absolute shiter) ending in a draw or defeat. I reckon they'll take 5 from the first three with draws at County and Rangers. Then I reckon they'll take 6 from the next three games, with a giant horsing at random. Then a win at ICT splitting two draws at home leaving them with 16 points. So I reckon the table will be: Aberdeen 71 Rangers 60 Hearts 56 St. Johnstone 50 Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandomGuy. Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Our record in Inverness is generally poor, I think. Add in the fact they'll be relegated by then means we'll get pumped. Our home form against bottom half sides is also awful. Said for a while we'll finish 5th, and I reckon we'll be adrift of 4th and 6th by the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dons_1988 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 44 minutes ago, Illgresi said: Having listened to that abortion of a Sportsound episode the other night, I thought we might like to discuss the run up to the split and have a guess at how the table will look at the end of the season. The four teams that have a realistic chance being Aberdeen, Rangers, Hearts, and St. Johnstone. Fixtures up to the split are: Aberdeen - Motherwell (h), Kilmarnock (a), County (h), Hamilton (a), Motherwell (h), Hearts (h), Dundee (a), ICT (h), Rangers (h), St. Johnstone (a) Rangers - Dundee (a), ICT (a), St. Johnstone (h), Celtic (a), Hamilton (h), Motherwell (h), Kilmarnock (a), Aberdeen (a), Thistle (h) Hearts - ICT (h), Thistle (a), County (h), Hamilton (h), Aberdeen (a), Celtic (h), St. Johnstone (a), Dundee (h), Kilmarnock (a) St. Johnstone - County (a), Kilmarnock (h), Rangers (a), Dundee (h), Motherwell (a), Hamilton (a), Hearts (h), ICT (a), Aberdeen (h) From a Dons perspective our remaining fixtures are all but perfect, with the only one I'm somewhat worried about being McDiarmid park just before the split. By that I mean, the games against the tougher teams (or teams we usually struggle against) are all at home. I see no reason why we shouldn't be looking to take 28-30 points from our remaining fixtures before the split. That said, we're still liable for a complete fuck up somewhere along the lines. For the filth, the next four games a crucial. They're on a poor run of form, and two away ties up next is really not what they need; especially one of them being a Friday night trip to Inverness. Then a home tie against St. Johnstone is also a tough fixture, with the Celtic game being a write off. If they fail to take 7-9 points from the first four games then Hearts will be breathing down their necks by the Jambos come to Pittodrie. I think they'll probably win against Dundee, draw with ICT and St. Johnstone, get utterly hosed by Celtic, win three straight then get beat at Pittodrie, and scrape a win against Thistle making 17 points. Hearts are a tough one to predict at the minute given how different their squad is. Who knows whether the last two results are just a wee purple patch? That said, their next four fixtures are kind to them, and I would expect them to take all 12 points, setting up a cracking match at Pittodrie. I'd expect Celtic to beat them, and would think they'll get a point at most at McDiarmid, followed by another couple of wins; giving them 19 points in all. St. Johnstone are another tough pick because they're usually very resolute, but also prone to a lapse in concentration (usually an absolute shiter) ending in a draw or defeat. I reckon they'll take 5 from the first three with draws at County and Rangers. Then I reckon they'll take 6 from the next three games, with a giant horsing at random. Then a win at ICT splitting two draws at home leaving them with 16 points. So I reckon the table will be: Aberdeen 71 Rangers 60 Hearts 56 St. Johnstone 50 Thoughts? Probably a bit optimistic to say we'll win 9 or 10 out of 10 to be honest although clearly every game is winnable individually. I'll say we'll drop points at Hamilton and one of the Motherwell home games and lose to Saints away so 23 points. Your Rangers predictions seem plausible. Fuck knows with Hearts I don't know half their team anymore. Saints again can be quite unpredictable so hard to predict. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tree house tam Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 We'll be back in Europe next season. Can see us finishing 3rd with a couple of points to spare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
topcat(The most tip top) Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 You're suggesting that a team that's dropped 26 points in the first 23 games is only going to drop 2 over the remaining 10? That seems like lunatic optimism As a base hypothesis lets assume that teams continue to acrue points at the rate they have so far That would give us Aberdeen: 43(23) + 19(10) = 62 Rangers: 43(24) + 16(9) = 59 Hearts: 37(24) + 14(9) = 51 Saint Johnstone: 34(24) + 13(9) = 47 You can then argue as to whether teams can be reasonably expected to improve or deteriorate from the standard they've displayed so far. Aberdeen have had a quiet winter and are unlikely to see a dramatic change in their circumstances so 62 probably isn't far off. I've only watched Rangers two games at Tynecastle so I struggle to see how they've beaten anybody but they have. They always look as if they might implode completely amidst bitter acrimony under the weight of expectations. I'll downgrade that forecast to 57. Hearts clearly have the biggest question mark hanging over them. Suddenly switching manager halfway through the season was sure to be disruptive, appointing a rookie who was always going to need some time to get up to speed even more so and then a raft of new arrivals and exits mean that any prediction is going to come with a huge margin of error in both directions. I think the chaos of the transition is now over and we're marginally stronger than we were Two points a game would give us 18 for a total of 55 but less than and 60+ are both easily conceivable. It's usually around now that clubs with less resources who have been doing well begin to suffer from the lack of depth. I'll assume that this goes for Saint Johnstone and downgrade their forecast slightly So that would leave us on Aberdeen:62 Rangers: 57 Hearts: 55 Saint Johnstone: 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Illgresi Posted February 9, 2017 Author Share Posted February 9, 2017 17 minutes ago, topcat(The most tip top) said: You're suggesting that a team that's dropped 26 points in the first 23 games is only going to drop 2 over the remaining 10? That seems like lunatic optimism There are numerous reasons why it's not lunatic optimism, but I can understand how it may appear that way. Part of the reason is as above, the fixtures appear to have fallen kindly for us. Furthermore, we are just beginning to hit our form after a fairly patchy and insipid start to the season. Also, if the past few seasons are anything to go by, we are no strangers at all to going on lengthy winning and unbeaten runs. On top of that, having 71 points going into the split would only be 3 points more than we had last season at the same point, which isn't extraordinary given we have a stronger squad that's more rested. Of course, like I said we'd be more than capable of getting beaten by Motherwell on Wednesday for example. That's the way it goes sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bambino7 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Hearts to finish ahead of sevco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tree house tam Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 23 minutes ago, topcat(The most tip top) said: It's usually around now that clubs with less resources who have been doing well begin to suffer from the lack of depth. I'll assume that this goes for Saint Johnstone and downgrade their forecast slightly Baws, we are just getting warmed up. You keep looking at The Rangers arse while we stroll past the both of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandomGuy. Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Baws, we are just getting warmed up. You keep looking at The Rangers arse while we stroll past the both of you. This is also true, we generally struggle around the winter then come on strong late on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
topcat(The most tip top) Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, RandomGuy. said: This is also true, we generally struggle around the winter then come on strong late on. Obviously I hadn't included your 15 points after the split in the total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weejoeharper Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 If the Saints finished as they did last year they would end up on 58 points. However that included a win against Celtic which is still very unlikely this year unless the standard of refereeing has suddenly improved, so taking those 3 points off would mean 55. Also they beat Aberdeen and Hearts in the last 14 games, probably not going to happen this year, but lets say they beat Hearts (obviously not the Dons) then the final score would be 52. Still not bad and good enough for top 5 but probably not higher. No one in recent times has got higher than 5th with 52 points so no European adventures for the saintees next year, unless they win the cup of course. There are too many ifs and buts with this but good fun though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the jambo-rocker Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Aberdeen look very good for second. Rangers look like they could crumble if teams would attack them at home, but they won't and will probably shitfest their way to 3rd. We could still go either way, ask me again after the four games before we play Aberdeen. St Johnstone will be Wright (geddit) up our arses at the very least because they are stubborn gits that don't know when to quit when a European Spot is at stake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo Jagsfan Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Will Sevco not have to pass the 'financial fair play' test to get into the Europa League, no matter where they finish in the Premiership? If they don't pass, will the next team go in in their place? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weejoeharper Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 If The Rangers don't pass then St Johnstone in 5th place will probably fill the space, unless a club lower than 5th wins the cup. What are the odds of that happening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swello Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Given how early the start is going to be next season (am I right in thinking that all Scottish teams are starting in June this time?) - I wonder how much the managers will see this as a "prize" this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weejoeharper Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 It's not a great time to begin games, everyone's rusty apart from Jonny Foreigner who's been playing for months it seems. We're stuck with it though and it makes a nice change of scenery for fans to see new teams each year so worth it alone for that. It's also good for us as it gets a lot of match fitness under our belts before we begin the SPFL games. And for those teams, most of us, who won't or don't win something every season it makes the last few games more worthwhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo Jagsfan Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 13 minutes ago, weejoeharper said: If The Rangers don't pass then St Johnstone in 5th place will probably fill the space, unless a club lower than 5th wins the cup. What are the odds of that happening? Will tell you after the Saints -v- Sizzle match on Saturday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Wonder Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Is it 4 Euro spots including the cup this season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandomGuy. Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Is it 4 Euro spots including the cup this season? As far as I know, its 2nd, 3rd and the Cup Winners who enter the Europa League, all in the first qualifying round (first leg 29 June). 4th only gets it if the Cup Winners come from the top three (a high chance with Celtic playing the way they are) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Wonder Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 9 minutes ago, RandomGuy. said: As far as I know, its 2nd, 3rd and the Cup Winners who enter the Europa League, all in the first qualifying round (first leg 29 June). 4th only gets it if the Cup Winners come from the top three (a high chance with Celtic playing the way they are) Thought so. Cheers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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