weejoeharper Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Yes, 4 spots in total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Desp Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Kinda reiterating Swello's point, but is European football the prize it once was? This year, the first game is on 29th June, for a competition that doesn't begin properly until mid-September. The chances of a Scottish side actually getting to the Group Stages of the Europa League are pretty much non-existent going by the carve up by UEFA. I know I got bored of the same old routine when watching Motherwell play in the qualifying rounds over a few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ross. Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, Desp said: Kinda reiterating Swello's point, but is European football the prize it once was? This year, the first game is on 29th June, for a competition that doesn't begin properly until mid-September. The chances of a Scottish side actually getting to the Group Stages of the Europa League are pretty much non-existent going by the carve up by UEFA. I know I got bored of the same old routine when watching Motherwell play in the qualifying rounds over a few years. Short sighted in the extreme though. The cash involved even in the Europa League now could see some clubs make 50%+ more on their usual turnover by qualifying. While it will take a monumental effort to get into the groups, getting to the play off round should be achievable with a bit of luck in the draw. That still brings in decent money. I think only the first qualifying round would produce an overall loss for most sides, but stand to be corrected if thats not the case. You also have the chance to test your side at a higher level than domestic competition, with the first round probably being the only exception. Any manager with ambition would see European football as a positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmothecat Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 You're suggesting that a team that's dropped 26 points in the first 23 games is only going to drop 2 over the remaining 10? That seems like lunatic optimism As a base hypothesis lets assume that teams continue to acrue points at the rate they have so far That would give us Aberdeen: 43(23) + 19(10) = 62 Rangers: 43(24) + 16(9) = 59 Hearts: 37(24) + 14(9) = 51 Saint Johnstone: 34(24) + 13(9) = 47 You can then argue as to whether teams can be reasonably expected to improve or deteriorate from the standard they've displayed so far. Aberdeen have had a quiet winter and are unlikely to see a dramatic change in their circumstances so 62 probably isn't far off. I've only watched Rangers two games at Tynecastle so I struggle to see how they've beaten anybody but they have. They always look as if they might implode completely amidst bitter acrimony under the weight of expectations. I'll downgrade that forecast to 57. Hearts clearly have the biggest question mark hanging over them. Suddenly switching manager halfway through the season was sure to be disruptive, appointing a rookie who was always going to need some time to get up to speed even more so and then a raft of new arrivals and exits mean that any prediction is going to come with a huge margin of error in both directions. I think the chaos of the transition is now over and we're marginally stronger than we were Two points a game would give us 18 for a total of 55 but less than and 60+ are both easily conceivable. It's usually around now that clubs with less resources who have been doing well begin to suffer from the lack of depth. I'll assume that this goes for Saint Johnstone and downgrade their forecast slightly So that would leave us on Aberdeen:62 Rangers: 57 Hearts: 55 Saint Johnstone: 45 When you consider that 9 of those points were dropped to Celtic and we don't play them again in the run in, and the two toughest fixtures we have left are both at home, I think our average will be higher than it has thus far. We have the advantage that The Rangers and Hearts both have Celtic yet to play, which we don't. I would be disappointed if we dropped 10 points in the run in, I think realistically 24 points would be a reasonable return over the pre-split games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dons_1988 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 8 minutes ago, Desp said: Kinda reiterating Swello's point, but is European football the prize it once was? This year, the first game is on 29th June, for a competition that doesn't begin properly until mid-September. The chances of a Scottish side actually getting to the Group Stages of the Europa League are pretty much non-existent going by the carve up by UEFA. I know I got bored of the same old routine when watching Motherwell play in the qualifying rounds over a few years. There's probably an element of truth to this but personally I love the European games. I really enjoyed pitting ourselves against the likes of RIjeka, Groningen and Almaty. Even when the team is shite there is that first half an hour where you shit yourself everytime the opposition come forward because you've no idea what they're capable of. Pittodrie is usually a much better atmosphere when we reach a round worth shouting about too. I'm sure I'm not in the majority but I love playing unknown teams and the carrot (however elusive) at the end of these qualifiers is definitely worth its weight in gold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussellAnderson Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Aberdeen have consistently played above our seeding for the last three years, and taking (modest, but still) scalps like Gronigen and Rijeka have been fantastic. I would be gutted if we didn't get the chance to go for that again by not qualifying for Europe. We are Scotland's Premier European Team (patent pending) after all; we have a reputation to keep up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Desp Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Fair points. It's probably the fact that Motherwell haven't done anything of note in those Euro games to get me excited about them. Up until the Sjarnan debacle, we won every game where we had been seeded, and lost (comfortably) in the ties where we weren't seeded. Aberdeen and St. Johnstone have put in some fantastic performances in recent years. I hope Aberdeen do manage to get a wee bit of luck in the draw next season. I suppose you could have Dundalk as the example of what might happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussellAnderson Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Dear Russell, I am pleased to inform you that your patent application has been successful based on the evidence of both the photays of Johnny Hewitt banging in a header vs Real Madrid in 1983 and Simmie and Mutley giving Hamburg the furry boaby later on that same year. Yours etc The Patent Office Couldn't find the copyright symbol on my iPhone keyboard though... [emoji24] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
accies1874 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Kinda reiterating Swello's point, but is European football the prize it once was? This year, the first game is on 29th June, for a competition that doesn't begin properly until mid-September. The chances of a Scottish side actually getting to the Group Stages of the Europa League are pretty much non-existent going by the carve up by UEFA. I know I got bored of the same old routine when watching Motherwell play in the qualifying rounds over a few years. Seeing Accies play in Europe would be a dream come true. Being abroad with all my pals watching Accies in a European competition would genuinely be the greatest experience of all time. I do get your point, but for us European football virgins, we all want to have a crack at it. We'd no doubt be drawn to some team that no one could actually get to, though. ETA: I actually kept money back from Christmas under Alex Neil's brilliant spell in case we got into Europe Obviously it was squandered once Canning was appointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandomGuy. Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Kinda reiterating Swello's point, but is European football the prize it once was? This year, the first game is on 29th June, for a competition that doesn't begin properly until mid-September. The chances of a Scottish side actually getting to the Group Stages of the Europa League are pretty much non-existent going by the carve up by UEFA. I know I got bored of the same old routine when watching Motherwell play in the qualifying rounds over a few years. Yes and no. It can ruin the start of your season, cause injury problems and doesn't even guarantee a profit. On the other hand, you get a competitive edge early on, you get the intrigue of seeing different sides, and you get an away day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Desp Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 I do get your point. For a fan, it's a brilliant experience to see your team away in Europe. I've been lucky to have attended a few away games in Europe. The experience, as a fan, is brilliant. My point of view was from a footballing side. The chances of getting through what is now four rounds (getting harder and harder as you go) to the actual tournament aren't great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksburnDandy Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Realistically, we will not win nearly all of our games. My guesses would be the below: Aberdeen - Motherwell (h) W, Kilmarnock (a) W, County (h) W, Hamilton (a) L, Motherwell (h) W, Hearts (h) D, Dundee (a) W, ICT (h) W, Rangers (h) W, St. Johnstone (a) L = 22 Rangers - Dundee (a) W, ICT (a) W, St. Johnstone (h) D, Celtic (a) L, Hamilton (h) W, Motherwell (h) W, Kilmarnock (a) W, Aberdeen (a) L, Thistle (h) W = 19 Hearts - ICT (h) W, Thistle (a) W, County (h) W, Hamilton (h) W, Aberdeen (a) D, Celtic (h) L, St. Johnstone (a) D, Dundee (h) W, Kilmarnock (a) W = 20 St. Johnstone - County (a) D, Kilmarnock (h) W, Rangers (a) D, Dundee (h) W, Motherwell (a) L, Hamilton (a) W, Hearts (h) D, ICT (a) W, Aberdeen (h) W = 18 That would leave the state of play at the split: Aberdeen - 65 Points Rangers - 62 Points Hearts - 57 Points St Johnstone - 52 Points Rangers will still be in there as despite being rancid, the wee diddy teams still fear the Rangers badge and everything around them. Hearts will have a good run to the split I feel, some decent incoming players. Their biggest drawbacks are the November to January spell and the diddies rolling over to Rangers. Aberdeen v Rangers will come down to the head to head games, and despite my optimistic prediction above, we will also shite ourselves at Ibrox and finish 3rd likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
topcat(The most tip top) Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 I think we can now downgrade Rangers by a couple of points and extend the margin of error by half a dozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
d31 Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 if the dons keep their good run going for a few more games it will be looking very comfortable for them (for europe) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craigkillie Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 I have a feeling that St Johnstone might surge through and take third. I'm not sure they're as good as they have been in previous years, but they typically finish the season very well. Murty reminds me of Kenny McDowell, and the longer he stays in charge, the more Rangers will slump. Even if they get someone competent in, the squad is still shite and gutless. Cathro's record in the league has been pretty poor so far too, so there's no guarantee Hearts will be able to keep pace with Saints. BTW, Contrary to the hysteria in the media, it's pretty likely that the Scottish Cup winners (or 2nd placed club if Celtic win the cup) will enter in the 2nd Qualifying Round. At the moment, they are slated to play in QR1, but spots in both are held back in later rounds for the holders of the CL and EL, and typically these clubs qualify via the league anyway which causes things to be reshuffled. It's complicated to work out exactly what is needed right now, but it will become clearer when the European competitions reach the business end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lionel hutz Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 Aberdeen and Hearts seem to both be on big runs of form. Whilst Rangers seem to be in disarray and will take weeks for a new manager/head coach to stamp his philosophy at rangers. Saints have been hit and miss all season, but could be the surprise package. Aberdeen - County (h) W, Hamilton (a) W, Motherwell (h) W, Hearts (h) D, Dundee (a) D, ICT (h) W, Rangers (h) W, St. Johnstone (a) L = 17 Rangers - ICT (a) D, St. Johnstone (h) L, Celtic (a) L, Hamilton (h) W, Motherwell (h) W, Kilmarnock (a) W, Aberdeen (a) L, Thistle (h)D = 11 Hearts - Thistle (a) W, County (h) W, Hamilton (h) W, Aberdeen (a) D, Celtic (h) W, St. Johnstone (a) L, Dundee (h) D, Kilmarnock (a) W = 17 St. Johnstone - Kilmarnock (h) D, Rangers (a) W, Dundee (h) W, Motherwell (a) L, Hamilton (a) D, Hearts (h) W, ICT (a) D, Aberdeen (h) W = 15 That would leave the table after 33 games as Aberdeen - 49 + 17 = 66pts Hearts - 39 + 17 = 56pts Rangers - 43 + 11 = 54pts St Johnstone - 37 + 15 = 52pts That would make a very tasty finish to the season with three teams going for one or two Euro spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PauloPerth Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 Aberdeen are on a great run, but one bad result sometimes sees them fall to pieces and it turns into a bad run of several games. Still strong favourites for second and flying at the minute. Rangers look to be struggling for any rhythm at the minute. Strong at home and will be in the mix, but a month or two back they were going great and seemed to be in very good shape for second place. Can't see it now, and expect them to be inconsistent, so I'm going to say 4th for them. Hearts have struggled under the new manager, and it could go one of two ways after their Cup disappointment: either they regroup and turn it round completely and finish the season strongly... or, the poor form continues, players and supporters lose faith in the manager and the new signings struggle to gel. Probably be wrong, but I'm going to go for the latter, and predict Hearts finish 5th. Been quite an inconsistent season for St Johnstone, but as others have said, usually finish strongly, particularly after the split. Will quietly plug away whilst the attention is on others, and I'm going to (incredibly) optimistically predict a surge to 3rd place! The obvious threat to everyone's ambitions is Hibs, who are a top 4 Premiership side. Apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shootingboots Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 10 points out the next 4 games and it's in the bag IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
babu Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 The chances of any Scottish team getting to group stages of Europa league are pretty slim nowadays. It's hardly worth the anticipation of a whole season hoping to qualify , only to play 2/3 rounds. 1st/2nd round play some team no-ones ever heard of, score a bunch of goals 3rd round play a half decent team no-ones ever heard of . ..& Out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shootingboots Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 We've went out at QR3 the last 3 years but I've really enjoyed it. We've had decent crowds and a few good wins and obviously some cracking trips abroad for the support. It beats playing the league cup groups anyway.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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