Hard Brexit: Relation to Scottish Independence.

[AUFC90]

1 minute ago, Antlion said:

To be fair, 55% of Scottish voters did just over two years ago. 

Funny thing is, if the Tories were looking like they would have gotten a majority I reckon it would have been a slim yes vote. Now, no one gives a f**k 

[Antlion]

1 minute ago, AUFC90 said:

Funny thing is, if the Tories were looking like they would have gotten a majority I reckon it would have been a slim yes vote. Now, no one gives a f**k 

That's the shitebaggery - I recall umpteen polls which said a majority would vote to be a normal nation state if the Tories were likely to win in 2015 (even wee Ruthie claimed her masters would lose, so we'd reject sovereignty). Now the prospect is of Tory rule for the forseeable, and a Tory party which openly treats Scotland as an uppity province (thanks mainly to the amount of Uncle Tams who are keen to deny they're uppity - some of them even try and show their loyal servitude by protesting that they don't even want their cursed region to have devolution!)

[Loondave1]

That's the shitebaggery - I recall umpteen polls which said a majority would vote to be a normal nation state if the Tories were likely to win in 2015 (even wee Ruthie claimed her masters would lose, so we'd reject sovereignty). Now the prospect is of Tory rule for the forseeable, and a Tory party which openly treats Scotland as an uppity province (thanks mainly to the amount of Uncle Tams who are keen to deny they're uppity - some of them even try and show their loyal servitude by protesting that they don't even want their cursed region to have devolution!)

But surely your tick tocking your way to Independence as a shoe in inevitability so no worries...

[Antlion]

Just now, Loondave1 said:

But surely your tick tocking your way to Independence as a shoe in inevitability so no worries...

Word salad. On the sauce?

[The_Kincardine]

14 minutes ago, AUFC90 said:

Really ? I seem to remember the vote was to leave the EU. The leave campaign was at pains to say that we would be a member of the single market and that we would get a trade deal that was absolutely amazing because Britain is great and Germany sells cars. 

I remember the disdain for 'free movement of labour' - a crucial part of the single market -  being the keystone of the 'leave' campaign.  Were it not for White Van Man racism we'd not even be discussing this.

[AUFC90]

Just now, The_Kincardine said:

I remember the disdain for 'free movement of labour' - a crucial part of the single market -  being the keystone of the 'leave' campaign.  Were it not for White Van Man racism we'd not even be discussing this.

Don't make out that people vote for a right Tory view on Brexit though. They voted to leave.. that's it.

[Loondave1]

Word salad. On the sauce?

Nah.Just a bit of pre bedtime trolling.

[ScotSquid]

6 hours ago, Ad Lib said:

It needs a lived experience of a decline in living standards before most will actually change their minds.

You've got to remember that the "swing vote" in the Independence Referendum was essentially lower-middle class Scotland. You've got to think about what motivated that group to vote No last time. It wasn't some sort of enthusiastic British nationalist fervour or hostility to Scottish nationalism: it was the pound in their pocket.

Brexit, and especially a Hard Brexit, is liable to shift if anything a group that was more obviously an "internationalist core No" last time towards being sympathetic to independence. But the deteriorating economic situation since 2014 in Scotland, in terms of tax revenue especially, is liable to push the "pound in your pocket" swing voter more firmly into the No camp. I think Alex Massie articulated this quite well when he said although independence is now a more psychologically attractive proposition, it is a harder business than it was in 2014 and a hard Brexit makes it harder still.

It forces Scotland to choose between, on the one hand, a loss of trade links with the EU, or on the other, to expose itself to a loss of both a structural fiscal subsidy and uninhibited trade links with its main trading partner. This is not what the choice was in 2014, given that an independent Scotland would have had all or nothing in terms of trade links with the EU and the UK.

Scotland's economy is also hugely dependent on the financial sector, and a hard Brexit, either with or without some sort of sector deal on financial services, is liable to make Scotland more dependent on the financial services sector and our access to the City of London rather than less.

At the moment I think independence would probably make Scotland a poorer country with both higher taxes and more austere levels of public spending, but that's not necessarily a red line anymore. The question now is really whether the fact the UK isn't in the EU disproportionately harms Scotland economically, and in ways that would in fact be mitigated by Scotland loosening its ties to the UK in favour of retaining or recreating those with the rest of the European Union.

The Yes movement are in a really bad spot here. This should have dawned on people the second there was a Leave vote - it was horrendous for Independence. Unless it was the softest of Brexits, which is why Nicola Sturgeon has been agitating for that.

iScotland would be facing on day one a substantial budget hole to fill. If everything was as it is today. That's going to require increased taxation from somewhere and/or cuts in spending, of a significant amount. Scotland would be poorer at the start.

Now there's the real problem. It's largest trading partner is going to be out of the single market (assuming here that Scotland is successful in its EU application - a reasonable assumption). 

There's been some idiotic nonsense talked about that . 'Uhhh, so yer saying that the UK won't trade with Scotland'. Err no. Trade will continue as it did before but it won't be tariff free . It will be more expensive for Scottish firms to trade with the UK. This will add costs, and reduce income. Which reduces tax take. This also pishes on the chips of the SNPs wheeze to slash Corporation Tax. The UK are wise to that game and are fully intending to do that too.

Of all the EU members in a future world most disadvantaged by the EU and the UK not negotiating a friendly mutually beneficial deal, it's iScotland.

As I said before, the SNP should be Theresa May's biggest cheerleader in any Brexit negotiations with the EU. Which they will be in private. Of course the flip side if that is that the bigger a success the UK makes of this whole fiasco the less appetising Independence looks. 

So what do you wish for? The SNP won't call a referendum. The financial position is far too uncertain, and as you say the 'pound in my pocket' types who won the 2014 indyref will not sign up for massive uncertainty and likely austerity as a fledging new nation, in the EU, but with the UK out. 

The psychological conditions for Indy have undoubtedly improved. Leaving the EU and the direction Britain is going in will worry a lot of moderate No voters. But the economic position is much much worse than in 2014. Oil has tanked. The deficit has grown. There's no appetite for increased personal taxation. And there's little prospect for massively increased corporate taxation. 

Until Scots steel themselves for a high taxation high public spend economy and buy into that model, there will be no Yes vote. 

 

[The_Kincardine]

1 minute ago, AUFC90 said:

Don't make out that people vote for a right Tory view on Brexit though. They voted to leave.. that's it.

Then you must be Corbyn or the wee LibDem fanny.  If you vote to leave the EU then you vote to leave the single market.  There is no sane way to think otherwise.

[Antlion]

2 minutes ago, Loondave1 said:

Nah.Just a bit of pre bedtime trolling.

This is one of the most tragic things you've ever posted. And you'll know yourself that that's up against some pretty stiff conception.

[Loondave1]

This is one of the most tragic things you've ever posted. And you'll know yourself that that's up against some pretty stiff conception.

I'm honest too a fault and "stiff conception" ?? That's a Freudian thing yeah ??

[AUFC90]

5 minutes ago, ScotSquid said:

The Yes movement are in a really bad spot here. This should have dawned on people the second there was a Leave vote - it was horrendous for Independence. Unless it was the softest of Brexits, which is why Nicola Sturgeon has been agitating for that.

iScotland would be facing on day one a substantial budget hole to fill. If everything was as it is today. That's going to require increased taxation from somewhere and/or cuts in spending, of a significant amount. Scotland would be poorer at the start.

Now there's the real problem. It's largest trading partner is going to be out of the single market (assuming here that Scotland is successful in its EU application - a reasonable assumption). 

There's been some idiotic nonsense talked about that . 'Uhhh, so yer saying that the UK won't trade with Scotland'. Err no. Trade will continue as it did before but it won't be tariff free . It will be more expensive for Scottish firms to export to the UK. This will add costs, and reduce income. Which reduces tax take. This also pishes on the chips of the SNPs wheeze to slash Corporation Tax. The UK are wise to that game and are filling intending to do that too.

If all the EU members in a future world most disadvantaged by the EU and the UK not negotiating a friendly mutually beneficial deal, it's iScotland.

As I said before, the SNP should be Theresa May's biggest cheerleader in any Brexit negotiations with the EU. Which they will be in private. Of course the flip side if that is that the bigger a success the UK makes of this whole fiasco the less appetising Independence looks. 

So what do you wish for? The SNP won't call a referendum. The financial position is far too uncertain, and as you say the 'pound in my pocket' types who won the 2014 indyref will not sign up for massive uncertainty and likely austerity as a fledging new nation, in the EU, but with the UK out. 

The psychological conditions for Indy have undoubtedly improved. Leaving the EU and the direction Britain is going in will worry a lot of moderate No voters. But the economic position is much much worse than in 2014. Oil has tanked. The deficit has grown. There's no appetite for increased personal taxation. And there's little prospect for massively increased corporate taxation. 

Until Scots steel themselves for a high taxation high public spend economy and buy into that model, there will be no Yes vote. 

 

Coming from someone with a woeful record of predictions such as yourself Anthony, i think it's safe to assume the opposite to be true.

[Loondave1]

Coming from someone with a woeful record of predictions such as yourself Anthony, i think it's safe to assume the opposite to be true.

Loving the complaceny that is YES at the moment.

[AUFC90]

1 minute ago, Loondave1 said:

Loving the complaceny that is YES at the moment.

troll someone else sadact

[Loondave1]

troll someone else sadact

Not trolling just pointing out the dangers of complaceny.When Indy2 fails to arrive or goes tits up that will be one of the reasons.

[Ad Lib]

One interesting dynamic will be to see how Ireland fares when Brexit bites. By some distance the largest share of trade they conduct with a single country is the UK (I think it's more than the rest of the EU combined, but I'm not sure). Given Brexit could also absolutely wreck the feasibility of the Common Travel Area, the main things left keeping their "raw interests", if you will, in the EU are the fact they're using the Euro as their currency and some speculative gains from UK business relocating to Dublin for single-market access. I was speaking to an old Uni friend from Ireland and he said it's hard to tell just how dependent they are on the UK being in the single market because a lot of their GDP and tax receipts are based on Ireland essentially marketing itself as an EU tax vehicle.

If you consider the historical development of the EU, the UK and Ireland have, with the exception of the ERM, essentially moved in lockstep in terms of opt-outs (Schengen, CFSP, Justice) and timing of accession to the then EEC. More broadly, but less severely, the accession of the Scandinavian countries and the rejection of the EEC by Norway was also essentially at exactly the same time, because in the 1970s those countries were all quite economically interdependent and the UK actually did more trade with them proportional to the size of their economies than mainland Western Europe.

It will be interesting to see to what extent that's still the case and how much of a divergence in interests among the "Western" European nations emerges as to who needs a good trade deal with the UK more than others. For as long as Germany has the greatest political influence within and over so many of the newer succession States, I'm not sure that even with goodwill Ireland and the Scandinavians will be able to help us rebuild our trade links from outside Swiss style.

If you were to place bets on which countries if any after the UK would leave the EU, I'd be tempted to say the favourites were Ireland, Denmark and Sweden, and that the main thing holding back the first is the fact it would have to disentangle its currency.

[AUFC90]

5 minutes ago, Loondave1 said:

Not trolling just pointing out the dangers of complaceny.When Indy2 fails to arrive or goes tits up that will be one of the reasons.

You're always trolling as you've repeatedly admitted, if there's one poster on this forum not to be taken seriously then it's you. And it's a bit rich coming from someone who's continually saying that a referendum will NEVER happen and that independence will NEVER happend. I don't know any yes voter that thinks it will be a walk in the park. What I do know is the no campaign will make just as much of an arse of it this time as they did the last time.

[Loondave1]

"Uncle Tams" - Jesus Christ you really are a low IQ bitter idiot. I think independence could be a good thing but the attitude of morons like you is what turns a lot of people off to it.

I agree.He is a marvelous example of how to lose Indy2 and is to be encouraged.

[Loondave1]

You're always trolling as you've repeatedly admitted, if there's one poster on this forum not to be taken seriously then it's you. And it's a bit rich coming from someone who's continually saying that a referendum will NEVER happen and that independence will NEVER happend. I don't know any yes voter that thinks it will be a walk in the park. What I do know is the no campaign will make just as much of an arse of it this time as they did the last time.

I suspect Indy2 will never arrive but if it does it will fail because of complacent idiots.Mark it in your diary.

[Antlion]

16 minutes ago, Harambe Legion said:

"Uncle Tams" - Jesus Christ you really are a low IQ bitter idiot. I think independence could be a good thing but the attitude of morons like you is what turns a lot of people off to it.

How would you describe the belligerent minority who don't even want Scotland to have devolved domestic power or administration, but to instead be governed wholly by a party rejected by Scots at the ballot box?

By the way, you've managed that darling thing of condemning someone else as stupid in a post littered with basic, childish errors.