Hard Brexit: Relation to Scottish Independence.

[Crùbag]

1 hour ago, McSpreader said:

The flip side of that being.......why make it harder to sell your products to a major consumer.

Trade opens doors....it doesn't close them.

The free trade deals we will create around the world will compensate if there is a loss of trade either to or from the EU.

I don't understand why you wouldn't support free trade deals. The type of market place that the EU has created is discriminatory and penalises emerging economies leading to stagnation and emigration. Free trade deals do the opposite.

 

Thought we wanted to close our doors?

Even arch-Brexiters like Daniel Hannan have admitted that immigration numbers are likely to rise after Brexit. So, it could mean swapping the French, Poles, Spaniards and Germans for more Indians and Pakistanis? The Ukip ground troops will love that.

[Colkitto]

It's not just trade deals May needs to get, it's good trade deals she needs to get. If we pay high tariffs, that eventually makes it's way back to the ordinary punter when they go to the supermarket or want to buy a car etc.

May and the Westminster government already sound desperate. All this she "would rather have no deal than a bad deal" is complete bollox!

Then you have Trump and the USA trade deal.What's he going to get out of that I wonder?  He'll take full advantage of a desperate UK seeking any kind of trade deal.

Wait until this hits the ordinary man/woman in the street - prices going sky high, jobs being lost and visas to go on holiday etc.

That's when we hold indyref2 and that's going to happen within a couple of years!  

   

[WILLIEA]

6 minutes ago, AUFC90 said:

Doubt they'll give the shiniest of shites tbh. Independent currency backed up by our share BOE reserves or joining the euro is how it will go down, Im good with either option, I'm also good with a currency union.

Me too! None of those give me any cause for trepidation.

[WILLIEA]

3 minutes ago, Colkitto said:

It's not just trade deals May needs to get, it's good trade deals she needs to get. If we pay high tariffs, that eventually makes it's way back to the ordinary punter when they go to the supermarket or want to buy a car etc.

May and the Westminster government already sound desperate. All this she "would rather have no deal than a bad deal" is complete bollox!

Then you have Trump and the USA trade deal.What's he going to get out of that I wonder?  He'll take full advantage of a desperate UK seeking any kind of trade deal.

Wait until this hits the ordinary man/woman in the street - prices going sky high, jobs being lost and visas to go on holiday etc.

That's when we hold indyref2 and that's going to happen within a couple of years!  

   

Trump and his trade secretary have already said that post brexit confusion is the ideal time to take business away from the UK

[Wee Willie]

10 minutes ago, AUFC90 said:

Doubt they'll give the shiniest of shites tbh. Independent currency backed up by our share BOE reserves or joining the euro is how it will go down, Im good with either option, I'm also good with a currency union.

 

3 minutes ago, WILLIEA said:

Me too! None of those give me any cause for trepidation.

Count me in

[Jacksgranda]

14 minutes ago, AUFC90 said:

Doubt they'll give the shiniest of shites tbh. Independent currency backed up by our share BOE reserves or joining the euro is how it will go down, Im good with either option, I'm also good with a currency union.

A currency union with an non EU member? Would that be allowed (by the EU)?

 

[Gordon EF]

I think both sides have been guilty of predicting what they hope will happen with regards to Brexit affecting independence. For all the column inches generated, nothing's actually happened yet. I suspect you'll get a bit of churn but the 45:55 split isn't going to move much for the foreseeable future. The longer term effects of Brexit (whatever they end up being) and what happens to the demographics of support for independence (is Yes/No just a generic young/old thing or will 2014's 20/30/40-somethings continue to support independence when they're 30/40/50/60- somethings?) are the important things.

Folk can pretend they know what's going to happen all they like but there's far too much up in the air to be certain.

 

[AUFC90]

13 minutes ago, Jacksgranda said:

A currency union with an non EU member? Would that be allowed (by the EU)?

 

I reckon it would be yeah, if for nothing else to show that when you leave the EU you may end up breaking your country up. Using a different currency from the Euro isn't really allowed but Poland and the Czechs do it.

[Booker-T]

13 hours ago, John Lambies Doos said:

Genuine question: Current polls seem to indicate about 46% support for independence but we're around 55% in immediate aftermath of Brexit. With this in mind, and a Hard Brexit revealed, has anyway changed from a No voter to Yes voter with regards to future Scottish independence referendum, or vice versa? Genuine question, so genuine answers please.

 

well.... i'm sure a lot of the 2014 treacherous b*****ds no voters have died ...

IMO most Scottish people voted for independence and no won because :

1. non brit EU nationals living here being conned into a lie about staying with the UK being the only way to maintain their right to remain here  

2. English (and to a lesser extent, welsh) retirees living here - any i know of voted no. There are a lot of English born pensioners here.

3. English workers here i know all voted no with the exception of 1 - the main reason given was fear of losing rights etc 

4. Staunch **** are ****.

5. current and former armed forces (queen and country and all that)

 

Following the disgusting example of the EU referendum which denied a large population of the UK workforce the right to vote should the SNP consider limiting the electorate to people who meet at least one of these conditions

1. People born in and living in Scotland

2. People in higher education in Scotland

3. People currently paying tax/ni in Scotland

?

 

i know... shut up and eat my cereal / don't drink and PnB

[The Chlamydia Kid]

No then, no now.

[DublinMagyar]

No surrender

[DublinMagyar]

No blacks
No dogs
No Irish

[DublinMagyar]

And what does Ulster say TCK?

[The_Kincardine]

41 minutes ago, Booker-T said:

well.... i'm sure a lot of the 2014 treacherous b*****ds no voters have died ...

IMO most Scottish people voted for independence and no won because :

1. non brit EU nationals living here being conned into a lie about staying with the UK being the only way to maintain their right to remain here  

2. English (and to a lesser extent, welsh) retirees living here - any i know of voted no. There are a lot of English born pensioners here.

3. English workers here i know all voted no with the exception of 1 - the main reason given was fear of losing rights etc 

4. Staunch **** are ****.

5. current and former armed forces (queen and country and all that)

Lovely!  This post makes me happy.

Anyway, why is anyone in the least bit surprised about "hard Brexit"?  Wasn't that what the country voted for?  Not my choice, of course, but it's amazing anyone regards this as new news.

Has no effect on Indyref2/Scotland.  The independence campaign is on ice for a good decade whatever wee Nicola (who is arsing this up) says.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Not me.
I'm happy with a hard Brexit ,as I understand it !
Why not sit tight and see how things pan out then decide if you can win independence ? 
We don't need the customs union as that stops us negotiating free trade deals elsewhere.
We don't need to be a  fully involved member of the single market either as we will almost certainly get access to it as it is in their interest based on the trade deficit from them to us.
We will get a mutually beneficial trade deal with the EU, I'm certain of that. If they aren't prepared to enter into honest negotiatiansbecause they want to'punish ' the UK then that simply proves even moreso  that Leaving such an odious, corrupt and overbearing organisation was,in fact, correct.
So.......Brexit not a reason to go independent, not if you were a No voter anyway. Apart from that what else has changed.
Plus, Sturgeon looks isolated and floundering at the moment and May looks strong, in control and determined to deliver a good Brexit for Britain.
 

[DeeTillEhDeh]

It needs a lived experience of a decline in living standards before most will actually change their minds.
You've got to remember that the "swing vote" in the Independence Referendum was essentially lower-middle class Scotland. You've got to think about what motivated that group to vote No last time. It wasn't some sort of enthusiastic British nationalist fervour or hostility to Scottish nationalism: it was the pound in their pocket.
Brexit, and especially a Hard Brexit, is liable to shift if anything a group that was more obviously an "internationalist core No" last time towards being sympathetic to independence. But the deteriorating economic situation since 2014 in Scotland, in terms of tax revenue especially, is liable to push the "pound in your pocket" swing voter more firmly into the No camp. I think Alex Massie articulated this quite well when he said although independence is now a more psychologically attractive proposition, it is a harder business than it was in 2014 and a hard Brexit makes it harder still.
It forces Scotland to choose between, on the one hand, a loss of trade links with the EU, or on the other, to expose itself to a loss of both a structural fiscal subsidy and uninhibited trade links with its main trading partner. This is not what the choice was in 2014, given that an independent Scotland would have had all or nothing in terms of trade links with the EU and the UK.
Scotland's economy is also hugely dependent on the financial sector, and a hard Brexit, either with or without some sort of sector deal on financial services, is liable to make Scotland more dependent on the financial services sector and our access to the City of London rather than less.
At the moment I think independence would probably make Scotland a poorer country with both higher taxes and more austere levels of public spending, but that's not necessarily a red line anymore. The question now is really whether the fact the UK isn't in the EU disproportionately harms Scotland economically, and in ways that would in fact be mitigated by Scotland loosening its ties to the UK in favour of retaining or recreating those with the rest of the European Union.

Job losses in the public sector as austerity kicks in will have an effect.

In some councils there will almost certainly be compulsory redundancies for teachers - something that has not happened in a very long time.

[HeartsOfficialMoaner]

2 hours ago, Jacksgranda said:

A currency union with an non EU member? Would that be allowed (by the EU)?

 

If we are part of the EU we should have the Euro, part of the UK we should have the pound and going it alone we should have our own currency but I think we need to have a fair bit of money behind us to do that. 

[AUFC90]

53 minutes ago, The_Kincardine said:

Lovely!  This post makes me happy.

Anyway, why is anyone in the least bit surprised about "hard Brexit"?  Wasn't that what the country voted for?  Not my choice, of course, but it's amazing anyone regards this as new news.

Has no effect on Indyref2/Scotland.  The independence campaign is on ice for a good decade whatever wee Nicola (who is arsing this up) says.

Really ? I seem to remember the vote was to leave the EU. The leave campaign was at pains to say that we would be a member of the single market and that we would get a trade deal that was absolutely amazing because Britain is great and Germany sells cars. No one voted for the right wing of the Tory party to do whatever the f**k the want.

[AUFC90]

6 minutes ago, HeartsOfficialMoaner said:

If we are part of the EU we should have the Euro, part of the UK we should have the pound and going it alone we should have our own currency but I think we need to have a fair bit of money behind us to do that. 

If we had our own currency we would use our share of BOE reserves as Scottish pound reserves......plenty. At least you are admitting that there's a few perfectly acceptable and viable options.....progress.

[Antlion]

4 minutes ago, AUFC90 said:

Really ? I seem to remember the vote was to leave the EU. The leave campaign was at pains to say that we would be a member of the single market and that we would get a trade deal that was absolutely amazing because Britain is great and Germany sells cars. No one voted for the right wing of the Tory party to do whatever the f**k the want.

To be fair, 55% of Scottish voters did just over two years ago.