Hard Brexit: Relation to Scottish Independence.

[John Lambies Doos]

Genuine question: Current polls seem to indicate about 46% support for independence but we're around 55% in immediate aftermath of Brexit. With this in mind, and a Hard Brexit revealed, has anyway changed from a No voter to Yes voter with regards to future Scottish independence referendum, or vice versa? Genuine question, so genuine answers please.

[Benjamin_Nevis]

I'd imagine for most people "Hard Brexit" is simply a meaningless phrase being chucked around by the media and politicians. You won't get a realistic answer, or indeed sway one way or the other until people see how Brexit will directly affect their everyday lives. 

[McSpreader]

Not me.

I'm happy with a hard Brexit ,as I understand it !

Why not sit tight and see how things pan out then decide if you can win independence ? 

We don't need the customs union as that stops us negotiating free trade deals elsewhere.

We don't need to be a  fully involved member of the single market either as we will almost certainly get access to it as it is in their interest based on the trade deficit from them to us.

We will get a mutually beneficial trade deal with the EU, I'm certain of that. If they aren't prepared to enter into honest negotiatiansbecause they want to'punish ' the UK then that simply proves even moreso  that Leaving such an odious, corrupt and overbearing organisation was,in fact, correct.

So.......Brexit not a reason to go independent, not if you were a No voter anyway. Apart from that what else has changed.

Plus, Sturgeon looks isolated and floundering at the moment and May looks strong, in control and determined to deliver a good Brexit for Britain.

 

[GTG_03]

Not me.
I'm happy with a hard Brexit ,as I understand it !
Why not sit tight and see how things pan out then decide if you can win independence ? 
We don't need the customs union as that stops us negotiating free trade deals elsewhere.
We don't need to be a  fully involved member of the single market either as we will almost certainly get access to it as it is in their interest based on the trade deficit from them to us.
We will get a mutually beneficial trade deal with the EU, I'm certain of that. If they aren't prepared to enter into honest negotiatiansbecause they want to'punish ' the UK then that simply proves even moreso  that Leaving such an odious, corrupt and overbearing organisation was,in fact, correct.
So.......Brexit not a reason to go independent, not if you were a No voter anyway. Apart from that what else has changed.
Plus, Sturgeon looks isolated and floundering at the moment and May looks strong, in control and determined to deliver a good Brexit for Britain.
 

Absolutely deluded. I had pity for May at the beginning as she had inherited a total shambles but so far she's lacked leadership.
Her speeches have lacked any sort of detail and gives the impression of just winging it.
Her ineptitude may just be the final nail in the coffin of the UK as we know it.

[Antiochas III]

When did requiring to import more stuff become better than not?  

Also threatening trade blocks or nations you import stuff from only works if a.  You can produce that stuff by yourself, b. You can get it elsewhere.  

[Big Fifer]

I was yes in 2014 and still am, but I don't think there will be anywhere near enough of a swing from no to yes yet. As a poster above said, without sounding condescending a number of people won't really get what a hard Brexit actually means and how giving up the single market/free movement actually affects them. If I'm being honest I just barely understand it. I'd imagine you won't see a big swing until things start going to shit, if they do.

[Griff Sheridan]

Even when things go to shit, people won't change their minds as the unionist parties and press will blame something other than the actual problem. Cue Scotland becoming more intolerant like large sections of our southern neighbours.

I also agree that the evidence of a swing to Yes still isn't large enough to give the ScotGov enough confidence to call indyref2. Mores the pity.

[Antlion]

29 minutes ago, Griff Sheridan said:

Even when things go to shit, people won't change their minds as the unionist parties and press will blame something other than the actual problem. Cue Scotland becoming more intolerant like large sections of our southern neighbours.

I also agree that the evidence of a swing to Yes still isn't large enough to give the ScotGov enough confidence to call indyref2. Mores the pity.

Without an active campaign, I doubt that the polling will ever consistently show in favour of Scottish statehood. As last time, and as with the Brexiteers during Euroref, the Scottish government will have to call it first and then work for the polls to turn in their favour rather than expecting it to come to them.

The job of the "Yes" campaign might well be made easier once a ref is called 2018 or early 2019, presuming the UK government continues to do what it castigates the EU for doing (enforcing uniformity). Once substantial talks emerge about the Irish border and the shape of it becomes clearer, things can also move forward.

[NotThePars]

I'm curious as to how May has shown strong leadership in, well, anything other than the perverted fantasies of Tories.

[Wee Bully]

I love the fact that the UK will be able to trade with the EU even though it is not in the single market, but Scotland wouldn't be able to trade with rUK if it was to leave the UK and remain in the single market. 

The ability to believe and espouse 2 diametrically opposed views at the same time is impressive.

[Wee Willie]

2 minutes ago, NotThePars said:

I'm curious as to how May has shown strong leadership in, well, anything other than the perverted fantasies of Tories.

and McSpreader

[SweeperDee]

May looks strong, in control and determined to deliver a good Brexit for Britain.
 

This is actually so ludicrous it's made me feel a bit ill. Fucking hell man.

[NotThePars]

and McSpreader

Aye, Tories.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Big Fifer said:

I was yes in 2014 and still am, but I don't think there will be anywhere near enough of a swing from no to yes yet. As a poster above said, without sounding condescending a number of people won't really get what a hard Brexit actually means and how giving up the single market/free movement actually affects them. If I'm being honest I just barely understand it. I'd imagine you won't see a big swing until things start going to shit, if they do.

This

Soft 2014 No voters who were angry about Brexit have had 7 months to get over it and most probably have. Most people I know just don't care. 

If an Indy ref is in the next two years I can't see Yes winning which would set us back about 20 years

[Wee Willie]

21 minutes ago, Karl Fletcher said:

This

Soft 2014 No voters who were angry about Brexit have had 7 months to get over it and most probably have. Most people I know just don't care. 

If an Indy ref is in the next two years I can't see Yes winning which would set us back about 20 years

and that's me f**ked.

I'll be 94 in 20 years time - still doable but...

[moses1924]

If indyref 2 had been held the day after brexit I would probably have voted yes I was so fed up at the result, as a poster above suggested though i now dont see how leaving the eu and uk at the same time will achieve anything nowso am bck to my soft no position. I may still vote yes in a future indyref and being part of the eu would be one reason for that, however I would need the Yes campaign to give a clear plan for currency and an indication as to what terms we would join the eu on.

[Ad Lib]

It needs a lived experience of a decline in living standards before most will actually change their minds.

You've got to remember that the "swing vote" in the Independence Referendum was essentially lower-middle class Scotland. You've got to think about what motivated that group to vote No last time. It wasn't some sort of enthusiastic British nationalist fervour or hostility to Scottish nationalism: it was the pound in their pocket.

Brexit, and especially a Hard Brexit, is liable to shift if anything a group that was more obviously an "internationalist core No" last time towards being sympathetic to independence. But the deteriorating economic situation since 2014 in Scotland, in terms of tax revenue especially, is liable to push the "pound in your pocket" swing voter more firmly into the No camp. I think Alex Massie articulated this quite well when he said although independence is now a more psychologically attractive proposition, it is a harder business than it was in 2014 and a hard Brexit makes it harder still.

It forces Scotland to choose between, on the one hand, a loss of trade links with the EU, or on the other, to expose itself to a loss of both a structural fiscal subsidy and uninhibited trade links with its main trading partner. This is not what the choice was in 2014, given that an independent Scotland would have had all or nothing in terms of trade links with the EU and the UK.

Scotland's economy is also hugely dependent on the financial sector, and a hard Brexit, either with or without some sort of sector deal on financial services, is liable to make Scotland more dependent on the financial services sector and our access to the City of London rather than less.

At the moment I think independence would probably make Scotland a poorer country with both higher taxes and more austere levels of public spending, but that's not necessarily a red line anymore. The question now is really whether the fact the UK isn't in the EU disproportionately harms Scotland economically, and in ways that would in fact be mitigated by Scotland loosening its ties to the UK in favour of retaining or recreating those with the rest of the European Union.

[Mastermind]

No then and that hasn't changed.

[sergie's no1 fan]

[HTG]

EU nationals will cause a big swing from 2014. That demographic alone may tip the balance. Also, some of the more risk averse pensioners may be deid. And the new batch of 16 year olds will almost certainly be overwhelmingly Yes.