Ya Bezzer! Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Your Handy Points/Chance of Finishing 1 pt above 11th Chart (based on league tables since 2000-2001). 42 pts - 100% chance of finishing 1 point above 11th. 41 pts - 94% 40 pts - 81% 39 pts - 81% 38 pts - 75% 37 pts - 69% 36 pts - 56% 35 pts - 50% 34 pts - 44% 33 pts - 7% 32 pts - 0% So, for example, based on points totals from the past 16 seasons, Inverness would require to win 13 points from the available 33 points to have a 50% chance of finishing outside the bottom two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Estragon Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 That's interesting. I always had it in my mind that an average of 1 point/game kept you up...but only three quarters of the time it'd seem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mathematics Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 4 hours ago, Estragon said: That's interesting. I always had it in my mind that an average of 1 point/game kept you up...but only three quarters of the time it'd seem. I think that was usually the case when it was 1 up/1 down, but no more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frankthetank22 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 On 04/03/2017 at 23:19, Ya Bezzer! said: Inverness - Partick (A), Ross County (H), Kilmarnock (H), Aberdeen (A), St. Johnstone (H), Motherwell (A) Hamilton - Hearts (A), Rangers (A), St. Johnstone (H), Motherwell (A), Ross County (H), Dundee (A) Motherwell - Aberdeen (A), St. Johnstone (H), Rangers (A), Hamilton (H), Partick Thistle (A), Inverness (H) Ross County - Kilmarnock (H), Inverness (A), Partick (A), Dundee (H), Hamilton (A), Celtic (H) Kilmarnock - Ross County (A), Partick (H), Inverness (A), Aberdeen (A), Celtic (A), Hearts (H) Dundee - St. Johnstone (A), Celtic (H), Aberdeen (H), Ross County (A), Hearts (A), Hamilton (H) Partick aren't going to finish bottom 2 now so I think they are safe although they could drop down the league obviously. Dundee are almost in the same boat but they probably have the hardest run in to the split so they might find themselves sweating a bit in the final stages. Looks tough for Hamilton as well. Next 3 matches will be huge for Kilmarnock given they have 3 city clubs as the last 3 before the split. Ross County have 5 out of 6 against bottom 6 teams so on paper at least the easiest run in. Motherwell have some tough matches coming up but the target has to be three home wins. Beating Hamilton and Inverness would surely keep us safe. Cheers, a bit happier after seeing it like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nightmare Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 6 hours ago, frankthetank22 said: Cheers, a bit happier after seeing it like that. Why the rolling of the eyes? That's a pretty generous run-in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Griff Sheridan Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 I don't think we're out of the pack just yet. A win today and an Ade Azeez Coming of Age Hat-trick and I might change my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandomGuy. Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Niall Keown in the papers today talking about getting 4th place, all but ending Particks chances of getting 4th place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pie Of The Month Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 No one at the club has learned from last season's constant top 6 chat after any win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DublinMagyar Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 While I admire your confidence the fat lady hasn't sung yet... Mi mi mi mi miFa fa fa fa faLa la la la la la Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caley Shaun Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 The pack is getting clustered. We are only a point behind Accies who play at Ibrox next weekend then there is County and Motherwell, 4pts ahead of us so a win next week coupled by a Motherwell loss would keep us 1 below both of them, both still to play Celtic whilst our "toughest" left is Aberdeen. I think Kilmarnock are safe unless they lose their next 2 against Partick and us, Partick are safe in my opinion, they win games when it matters and Dundee will get some crucial wins. For me its Accies for bottom and Motherwell for relegation play off, we will end 10th which would be some recovery lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Estragon Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Monster game at RP next week, there's only one man for the job.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killie_lad Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Monster game at RP next week, there's only one man for the job.... Crisp boyd? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C4mmy31 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Inverness - Partick (A), Ross County (H), Kilmarnock (H), Aberdeen (A), St. Johnstone (H), Motherwell (A)Hamilton - Hearts (A), Rangers (A), St. Johnstone (H), Motherwell (A), Ross County (H), Dundee (A)Motherwell - Aberdeen (A), St. Johnstone (H), Rangers (A), Hamilton (H), Partick Thistle (A), Inverness (H)Ross County - Kilmarnock (H), Inverness (A), Partick (A), Dundee (H), Hamilton (A), Celtic (H)Kilmarnock - Ross County (A), Partick (H), Inverness (A), Aberdeen (A), Celtic (A), Hearts (H)Dundee - St. Johnstone (A), Celtic (H), Aberdeen (H), Ross County (A), Hearts (A), Hamilton (H) Partick aren't going to finish bottom 2 now so I think they are safe although they could drop down the league obviously. Dundee are almost in the same boat but they probably have the hardest run in to the split so they might find themselves sweating a bit in the final stages. Looks tough for Hamilton as well. Next 3 matches will be huge for Kilmarnock given they have 3 city clubs as the last 3 before the split. Ross County have 5 out of 6 against bottom 6 teams so on paper at least the easiest run in. Motherwell have some tough matches coming up but the target has to be three home wins. Beating Hamilton and Inverness would surely keep us safe. Your Handy Points/Chance of Finishing 1 pt above 11th Chart (based on league tables since 2000-2001). 42 pts - 100% chance of finishing 1 point above 11th. 41 pts - 94% 40 pts - 81% 39 pts - 81% 38 pts - 75% 37 pts - 69% 36 pts - 56% 35 pts - 50% 34 pts - 44% 33 pts - 7% 32 pts - 0% So, for example, based on points totals from the past 16 seasons, Inverness would require to win 13 points from the available 33 points to have a 50% chance of finishing outside the bottom two. Killie don't have Aberdeen away, it's Rangers at home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staggie52 Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 So the pack remains intact. Hamilton and Motherwell lose way a bit, but nobody breaks away. 4 games to go, any team can potentially reach top six. None of us can overtake the new boys but Thistl, Killie and Dundee have to watch their head as Cathro's boys capsize. Interesting times. Still haven't heard the fat lady sing.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandomGuy. Posted March 19, 2017 Share Posted March 19, 2017 Can I insert some guesswork into the equation? Four games until the split. So lets have a look.... Partick Thistle - 34pts - Next Four games: County (4/6pts, 2PPG), Celtic (0/6, 0), Motherwell (1/6, 0.5), Rangers (0/6, 0) - Estimated Points tally - 36/37pts Kilmarnock - 32pts - ICT (2/6, 1), Rangers (1/6, 0.5), Celtic (0/6, 0), Hearts (3/6, 1.5) - 34pts Dundee - 30pts - Celtic (0/6, 0), Aberdeen (0/6, 0), County (4/6, 2), Hearts (3/6, 1.5), Hamilton (4/6, 2) - 34/35pts County - 28pts - Partick (1/6, 0.5), Dundee (1/6, 0.5), Hamilton (1/6, 0.5), Celtic (0/6, 0) - 29/30pts Motherwell - 27pts - Rangers (0/6, 0), Hamilton (4/6, 2), Partick (4/6, 2), ICT (3/6, 1.5) - 32/33pts ICT - 24pts - Kilmarnock (2/6, 1), Aberdeen (1/6, 0.5), St Johnstone (3/6, 1.5), Motherwell (3/6, 1.5) - 28/29pts Hamilton - 24pts - St Johnstone (1/6, 0.5), Motherwell (1/6, 0.5), County (4/6, 2), Dundee (1/6, 0.5) - 27/28pts Which means, come the split, my predicted table would be... 6. Partick Thistle - 36/37 7. Dundee - 34/35 8. Kilmarnock - 34 9. Motherwell - 32/33 10. County - 29/30 11. ICT - 28/29 12. Hamilton - 27/28 You'd then look at the results against bottom half teams so far.... Dundee - 1.62PPG : 8.1pts gained, Killie - 1.36 : 6.8, Motherwell - 1.69 : 8.5, County - 1 : 5, ICT - 0.92 : 4.6, Hamilton - 1.08 : 5.4 Which means my final bottom half of the table looks like.... 7. Dundee - 42/43 8. Kilmarnock - 41 9. Motherwell - 40-42 10. County - 34/35 11. ICT - 32/33 12. Hamilton - 32/33 As you can see, theres a clear split within the split that happens. Still very tight between the bottom three clubs though, and with ICT starting to pick up points every week they nudge above Hamilton who seem to be in a rough patch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandomGuy. Posted March 19, 2017 Share Posted March 19, 2017 This is just for Thistle fans, who I predicted to make the top half. St Johnstone - 43pts - Hamilton (4/6, 2), Hearts (4/6, 2), ICT (3/6, 1.5), Aberdeen (2/6, 1) - 49/50pts Hearts - 41pts - Celtic (0/6, 0), St Johnstone (1/6, 0.5), Dundee (3/6, 1.5), Kilmarnock (3/6, 1.5) - 43/44pts Partick - 34pts - 36/37pts Games against top six St Johnstone (1.08, 5), Hearts (0.92, 4.6), Partick (0.54, 2.7) 4. St Johnstone - 54/55pts 5. Hearts - 48/49pts 6. Partick Thistle - 39/40pts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moo Posted March 19, 2017 Share Posted March 19, 2017 We've got an extremely hard run in but we seem to pick results up when we're the underdogs. We've been shite this season but not that shite to go down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Griff Sheridan Posted March 19, 2017 Share Posted March 19, 2017 If we're sixth at the split, then that's exactly where we'll stay, as we take the foot off the gas and play the under 20s in the remaining five games. Probably beating one half of the ugly sisters at Firhill in a not-so-famous end of season victory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fuctifano Posted March 19, 2017 Share Posted March 19, 2017 Dunno whether it's best here or in a new thread but I had a look at the projected top 6 / bottom 6 post split fixtures. I've taken the brave assumption that one of Thistle, Killie, or Dundee will occupy 6th spot come 16th April, and the less brave assumption that the current top 5 will also be there. I've done this every year since we've come up and there seems to be a huge amount of swaps this year, I'm guessing because Rangers took over Dundee United's fixtures? Anyway, attached top 6 and bottom 6 fixtures due with what I would think would be the easiest methods of equalising fixtures but if Thistle or Dundee finish top 6 then I can't see a way to get it 19-19 for everyone. In both screenshots the top table is if Thistle finish 6th, then Killie , then Dundee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pie Of The Month Posted March 19, 2017 Share Posted March 19, 2017 Can't wait for the Thistle statement demanding compensation when we end up in the bottom 6 with an 18-20 split and having had 1 home game v Celtic and Rangers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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