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Brexit slowly becoming a Farce.


John Lambies Doos

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Irish Teashop on the telly now, clearly struggling to avoid laughing.

FFS - he just said funding for border communities would continue until 2021 when they'd "examine continuing it beyond that"!

Quote

Ireland's Taoiseach Leo Varadkar says the deal has "achieved all we set out to achieve".

 

Edited by btb
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1 minute ago, Michael W said:

Probably unhelpful for the press to call this a deal as it only establishes "sufficient progress" has been made to talk about the future UK/EU relationship...

If they can negotiate an EEA style free trade over the next few months, which should be relatively easy as the UK already complies as an existing EU member, and dress it up in language that makes it look like the UK is out in some way when it is really effectively in but now with no say whatsoever in EU institutions the problems get fixed and the NI-RoI border can be like Norway-Sweden with the Common Travel Area used to claim there is effective immigration control. Interesting person to watch over the next few days is Nigel Farage and how mental he gets. Tories defecting to UKIP to insist on a real Brexit is what can most quickly scuttle this.

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1 hour ago, Colkitto said:

From my understanding of it it's SM & CU along with free movement of people (with some clever word play - alignment)? So we pay £50b and have an inferior trade deal with the EU than we have now - what was the point in all this then?

Fifty billion for longer queues and more expensive import goods.  That'll stick it to the Westminster elite!

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It's the EU that have got what they wanted given they negotiate collectively and it was only their willingness to give the RoI a veto that gave Varadkar the negotiating power. Biggest losers in the short to medium terms if this sticks will be Sinn Fein if there is no special status for NI and an ongoing soft border. That kills the border question which is their raison d'etre as an issue for most people and punts UI off into the distant future in political career terms and makes a failure to agree to a resumption of power sharing difficult to justify. Only fly in the ointment for Ulster Unionism at that point is Scotland because paradoxically what Arlene Foster has been able to engineer courtesy of the numbers balance after Theresa May's bungled snap election really helps the SNP to achieve its goals.

Edited by LongTimeLurker
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On 05/12/2017 at 13:41, welshbairn said:

I bet May and Foster agreed this strategy before to make the DUP look staunchly intransigent to their fan base. There will be a slight modification of the language and they'll come over as heroic hard bitten negotiators and everyone will be happy by Friday.

 

2 hours ago, Double Jack D said:

My politics couldn't be more opposed to the DUP in every way, however kudos to them in the "punching above their weight" stakes. 

 

 

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The Irish question looks like a massive fudge tbh, and you can only ask how long it'd last in the face of a post Brexit UK government that felt it needed to diverge from EU regulations in order to strike up all those amazing free trade deals with everyone else, and they might try and impose a special territorial agreement on Stormont, but how would that stick? Meanwhile the UK government have capitulated on pretty much every point up to and including the divorce settlement.  We'll be shadowing the single market without necessarily being part of it, and certainly with no decision making input on it. We'll have the regulatory framework without any of the protection and diminished access. 

The fallout from the Suez incident was meant to have been a dark night of the soul for the British establishment, a wake up call that we were no longer in the first rank of world powers. By comparison, Brexit is going to make Suez look like a minor speed bump on our way to the bottom. It's fairly difficult to fathom a more self destructive act of politics on these islands, save the Scottish parliament's decision to abolish itself in 1707. 

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4 minutes ago, renton said:

...We'll be shadowing the single market without necessarily being part of it, and certainly with no decision making input on it. We'll have the regulatory framework without any of the protection and diminished access...

Basically that's what Norway already does and it's what people meant by a soft Brexit, but it probably all has to be dressed up as a Canada style free trade deal rather than the EEA to stop Nigel and co gaining too much political traction again. Given the UK was largely disengaged from the EU and had opt out after opt out, hopefully not a lot changes once the dust settles at least if you are not taking advantage of freedom of movement on  a regular basis.

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It's all clear now:

Quote

Canadian model 'basis' for UK-EU talks says Barnier

Michel Barnier concluded his press conference by talking about the all-important question of the UK's future relationship with the EU.

He says there are a "range of models" that so-called third party countries have with the EU, mentioning Norway, Turkey, Ukraine and Canada, which all have a "balance of rights and responsibilities".

He suggests the UK's "red lines" in the negotiation - Theresa May has said the UK will leave the customs union and the single market - rule out a number of the possibilities.

Where does that leave the UK, he hypothesises?

Just one thing - a free trade agreement on the Canadian model. It is not us, it is the British government, which is indicating these red lines that is closing certain doors. That is the model we are going to have to work on."

This is highly significant.

I'm away to listen to the Maple Leaf Rag.

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What this supposed "deal" categorically shows is that an Independent Scotland within the EU will definitely not require a border at Berwick and Gretna.

Wings is all over this and he has an extremely valid point, particularly to Yes/ Leave voters.

The "safe" option for Scotland is now a declaration of independence prior to Brexit to retain our EU membership where we can observe the success/ failure of Brexit on rUK. Should it be a success we would then be able to re-visit our EU membership ourselves at a future date, the politics would demand it. 

I now predict a referendum in the Autumn of 2018 unless there is a transitional deal to extend UK membership beyond March 2019.

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