Brexit slowly becoming a Farce.

[The Holiday Song]

5 hours ago, Mackie The Staggie said:

So.....can we now change the title.

From what I can gather/guess there seems to be 3  main options currently open to the government at the moment.

Option 1 - Allow Northern Ireland to remain within the Single Market, while the rUK is pulled out.

This effectually creates a sea border between NI and the rest of the UK, the issues between trade effectively becomes a rUK problem but there will be issues in Northern Ireland ports and the border question will still hang over it.  But this pales into insignificance as an issue when you consider that by going this route they would have more or less unified Ireland.   I think we can all see where that one ends up as a new generation of 20+ year old males, 3 or 4 generations removed from the troubles of the 70's and 80's, start up again on romanticised stories of 'freedom fighting' from bitter and twisted old men.  

As for Scotland, well the whole independence referendum rightly (imo) comes back and hopefully with it our independence.....although we would likely shite it again

Option 2 - Britain remains part of the Single Market

We follow the model that Norway uses (as it should have been in the first place....but that's another discussion), we allow free movement within the other EU States and any that join thereafter.  This solves the border issue and keeps Northern Ireland as part of the union.  As for Scotland, the desire for independence drops slightly, thus making it difficult for the SNP to pursue another referendum as it will be unclear whether they would win.  Fear of defeat puts them back and the small resurgence in Labour/Lib Dem/Tory in future General Elections continues to grow.  

However this will piss of the right within the party.  May would be effectively finished as Mogg and co topple her from within.  England could very will surge further to the right.

Option 3 - We cancel article 50 and rethink the whole thing.

Whether this goes up for another Referendum or not I don't know.  But the whole thing has been rushed with no plan in place, we should never have triggered article 50 so quickly and the only reason May did was to appease the anti-EU feeling within her party.  At least with the Scottish Independence vote there was some form of documentation of what Scotland would be like.

This would be the end of May, no way this doesn't get spun to her denying the rights of the majority that voted to leave, it open's the gates for Boris and Mogg to take control and the UK lurch further to the right.

 

A rather basic look upon things from someone with little political knowledge....but I say the whole situation is seriously fucked up

 

I’m concerned there’s a fourth option...

No deal brexit

Hard border for Ireland

Loony hardcore Brexiters would love it, as would DUP? What’s to stop this? Good Friday Agreement?

[LongTimeLurker]

1 hour ago, Donathan said:

...Perhaps the Tories could convince someone else to vote with them other than the DUP?

Unlikely after the latest opinion poll numbers with Labour, and the SNP and Lib Dems are pro-Remain, so can't touch what she is doing with a bargepole. There's no way the DUP can go along with what Theresa May is alleged to be proposing because leaving aside any William Ulsterman stuff it would be even more economically disastrous for NI to be uncoupled from GB in customs union terms than it would be to have a hard border with the RoI, so either she backs down or there is going to be a general election early in the New Year. What never ceases to amaze me is how clueless English politicians always are about what makes people in NI tick. The one exception was Blair and that was basically because his mother was from an Orange family in Donegal.

[harry94]

5 hours ago, Mackie The Staggie said:

So.....can we now change the title.

From what I can gather/guess there seems to be 3  main options currently open to the government at the moment.

Option 1 - Allow Northern Ireland to remain within the Single Market, while the rUK is pulled out.

This effectually creates a sea border between NI and the rest of the UK, the issues between trade effectively becomes a rUK problem but there will be issues in Northern Ireland ports and the border question will still hang over it.  But this pales into insignificance as an issue when you consider that by going this route they would have more or less unified Ireland.   I think we can all see where that one ends up as a new generation of 20+ year old males, 3 or 4 generations removed from the troubles of the 70's and 80's, start up again on romanticised stories of 'freedom fighting' from bitter and twisted old men.  

As for Scotland, well the whole independence referendum rightly (imo) comes back and hopefully with it our independence.....although we would likely shite it again

Option 2 - Britain remains part of the Single Market

We follow the model that Norway uses (as it should have been in the first place....but that's another discussion), we allow free movement within the other EU States and any that join thereafter.  This solves the border issue and keeps Northern Ireland as part of the union.  As for Scotland, the desire for independence drops slightly, thus making it difficult for the SNP to pursue another referendum as it will be unclear whether they would win.  Fear of defeat puts them back and the small resurgence in Labour/Lib Dem/Tory in future General Elections continues to grow.  

However this will piss of the right within the party.  May would be effectively finished as Mogg and co topple her from within.  England could very will surge further to the right.

Option 3 - We cancel article 50 and rethink the whole thing.

Whether this goes up for another Referendum or not I don't know.  But the whole thing has been rushed with no plan in place, we should never have triggered article 50 so quickly and the only reason May did was to appease the anti-EU feeling within her party.  At least with the Scottish Independence vote there was some form of documentation of what Scotland would be like.

This would be the end of May, no way this doesn't get spun to her denying the rights of the majority that voted to leave, it open's the gates for Boris and Mogg to take control and the UK lurch further to the right.

 

A rather basic look upon things from someone with little political knowledge....but I say the whole situation is seriously fucked up

That's quite a good summary of things. Another, more dramatic, option would be if the Tory remain vote perhaps courted Labour's very pro EU MPs and kind of almost turned to a national type government to carry overwhelming support for the single market - I think that's probably the best compromise for the narrow victory and is the only practical route to stability. It'll kill many careers but the resulting economic collapse will also take care of that.

My instinct is that this will eventually end up with another referendum and Britain voting to remain in the EU. There will be a lot of resentment but once we actually see what deal has been hashed out (if any), there will be plenty of time for economic hardship. Hell, opinion polling on a Scottish referendum may also take a dramatic turn in events. I think we'll see rapid capital flight from the new year onwards and the job losses will start to hit for real.

I also suspect justification might also be found in this 'fake news' angle and Robert Mueller's investigation on the Trump administration will reveal dirty money and immoral data analytical practices used from outwith the nation itself, it isn't difficult to link Farage to that sort of thing and I suspect that if the investigation in the States will keep in the headlines. Sadly, I think this will also be used as a disingenuous put down of Scotland as a convenient side charge. Part of my worry for Salmond taking this show on RT is that when there is inevitably this uncovering of financing and intelligence operations initiated by Russia in the west, there will definitely be something linking the Scottish Independence referendum. It won't have stretched remotely close to the Cambridge Analytica stuff but there will be contact.

f**k knows why May triggered Article 50 so early. Absolutely mental without having any sort of position on really anything. She may have been trying to fend off a challenge from the right of the party but I don't think anyone would have particularly went for her at the time she did as everyone is happy to have her have the job right now since it is so toxic.

[doulikefish]

Dup whip in no 10 just now,looks like the magic money tree is about to get a shake again lol

[Fullerene]

Let's face it.  As soon as they get close to any kind of deal - somebody will scream "sell-out".
Typically it would be Nigel Farage (and "the great betrayal of the British public") but it could be any other member of the Brexit brigade.
Today it is the DUP.  Tomorrow it will be someone else.

David Davis argues that the Irish border issue will depend on whatever trade deal with strike.
Does that rule out the "no deal" scenario?  I am at a loss to see how a "No Deal" scenario would resolve the Irish border issue.

[doulikefish]

 

[HTG]

2 minutes ago, doulikefish said:

Dup whip in no 10 just now,looks like the magic money tree is about to get a shake again lol

No amount of money can shift the DUP position I wouldn't have thought. 

If she had anything about her, May would tell them to f**k off and just press forward as a minority govt. The problem is that she can't cut a deal in Ireland without really pissing off Scotland. She can't cut a deal for Scotland without the regions and Wales getting hacked off.

She'd be as well stating outright that we will stay in the customs union. With that will come free movement. And with that, complete foaming at the mouth from the right wing brigade. She'll be out a job and the whole thing will be fucked. 

Tough one. Get the indy car started.

[Joey Jo Jo Junior Shabadoo]

[Colkitto]

9 minutes ago, HTG said:

No amount of money can shift the DUP position I wouldn't have thought. 

If she had anything about her, May would tell them to f**k off and just press forward as a minority govt. The problem is that she can't cut a deal in Ireland without really pissing off Scotland. She can't cut a deal for Scotland without the regions and Wales getting hacked off.

She'd be as well stating outright that we will stay in the customs union. With that will come free movement. And with that, complete foaming at the mouth from the right wing brigade. She'll be out a job and the whole thing will be fucked. 

Tough one. Get the indy car started.

The only solution I can see is if the UK stays in the single market & customs union. I agree in that the DUP won't be bought off with this one.  

Every decision just seems to have a consequence to it and any decision made seems to have a domino effect onto something else they haven't thought of or properly thought through. 

No idea where this is going or how it will end up

 

 

[Joey Jo Jo Junior Shabadoo]

2 minutes ago, Colkitto said:

The only solution I can see is if the UK stays in the single market & customs union. I agree in that the DUP won't be bought off with this one.  

Every decision just seems to have a consequence to it and any decision made seems to have a domino effect onto something else they haven't thought of or properly thought through. 

No idea where this is going or how it will end up

 

 

If only somebody had pointed this all out to them in advance of the referendum? 

ETA: I seem to remember when the Irish border question ever came up, they just wheeled out Theresa Villiers to say "don't worry, it's not a problem". That was pretty much it. Looking back, that was their answer to everything.

Edited December 4, 2017 by Joey Jo Jo Junior Shabadoo

[Lurkst]

2 mins 20 in....

 

[Kaz]

Remember when the SNP had to have a plan A, B and C for what we were all going to have for dinner in an Independent Scotland etc? The Scots cringing Britnats have gone very quiet on that front.

 

 

[Granny Danger]

Someone jokingly touched on this earlier, but Sturgeon should offer May support for the Brexit Bill in return for Scotland being able to remain in the Single Market (with all that entails) and no hard border with England.

 

 

 

Oh, and a billion pounds.

[Gaz]

MUSSUS BUNFIELD

[Finch road]

MUSSUS BUNFIELD

I WOULD CARE FOR CHEDDAR CHEESE AND PINEAPPLE ON A SHTICK

[LinkinFighter]

The Northern Irish prods are a strange bunch, pining for the identity of country that doesn't give a f**k about them.

[Michael W]

1 hour ago, Fullerene said:

Let's face it.  As soon as they get close to any kind of deal - somebody will scream "sell-out".
Typically it would be Nigel Farage (and "the great betrayal of the British public") but it could be any other member of the Brexit brigade.
Today it is the DUP.  Tomorrow it will be someone else.

David Davis argues that the Irish border issue will depend on whatever trade deal with strike.
Does that rule out the "no deal" scenario?  I am at a loss to see how a "No Deal" scenario would resolve the Irish border issue.

In a no deal scenario, the UK can do whatever the hell it likes with the Irish border (i.e. nothing if it so wishes).

It's then RoI's problem, and anything negative is on them - they'll be in breach of their obligations to the EU if they don't enforce it. The UK can wash its hands of the matter and blame the EU for being inflexible

Naturally the end result would be a nightmare, and doesn't solve anything. A memory for the box when a oneupmanship card is required to blame someone else. 

Edited December 4, 2017 by Michael W

[Tony Ferrino]

14 minutes ago, LinkinFighter said:

The Northern Irish prods are a strange bunch, pining for the identity of country that doesn't give a f**k about them.

Doesn't  that describe anyone who votes for a right wing party?

[1320Lichtie]

The Northern Irish prods are a strange bunch, pining for the identity of country that doesn't give a f**k about them.

Much like the Scottish ones. Absolute minks like Red Rob and The Chlamydia Kid voting for the Tories along with the rest of their scheme because they’ve got the word Unionist in the party.

Absolute morons.

[John Lambies Doos]

Much like the Scottish ones. Absolute minks like Red Rob and The Chlamydia Kid voting for the Tories along with the rest of their scheme because they’ve got the word Unionist in the party.

Absolute morons.

Does anyone actually take the Chlamydia Kid seriously....? Jackanory