Dingus son of Dork Posted July 24, 2016 Share Posted July 24, 2016 With speculation over a second Independence Referendum and an alleged surge in support for Yes, is anyone else surprised that there haven't been more opinion polls? Does anyone know if there is any coming up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mortar Bored Posted July 24, 2016 Share Posted July 24, 2016 Cos Brexit innit, that why no Czechs eifer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cream Cheese Posted July 24, 2016 Share Posted July 24, 2016 Because the secret polls they've been conducting don't suit the status quo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dingus son of Dork Posted July 24, 2016 Author Share Posted July 24, 2016 Those guys have too much clout. Plus, all their songs sound the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ad Lib Posted July 24, 2016 Share Posted July 24, 2016 There's been few polls because Sturgeon doesn't actually want to call indyref2. Yet. There is too much uncertainty about what progress will be made on Brexit, how specifically it will affect Scotland, and how that alters both the nature of the argument and the desire on the part of the SNP, or indeed the public, to hold a second one. My guess is she would prefer not to hold one during this Parliament but that her hand might, perversely given the May Holyrood election rhetoric, be forced on her by a combination of those within her party and by her opponents if she is perceived (whether rightly or wrongly) to be using Brexit talks opportunistically rather than trying to secure the "best" deal for the UK. Any polls right now would be volatile, a poor benchmark and a waste of money for just about anyone with skin in the game or newspapers reporting to publish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mortar Bored Posted July 24, 2016 Share Posted July 24, 2016 There's been few polls because Sturgeon doesn't actually want to call indyref2. Yet. There is too much uncertainty about what progress will be made on Brexit, how specifically it will affect Scotland, and how that alters both the nature of the argument and the desire on the part of the SNP, or indeed the public, to hold a second one. My guess is she would prefer not to hold one during this Parliament but that her hand might, perversely given the May Holyrood election rhetoric, be forced on her by a combination of those within her party and by her opponents if she is perceived (whether rightly or wrongly) to be using Brexit talks opportunistically rather than trying to secure the "best" deal for the UK. Any polls right now would be volatile, a poor benchmark and a waste of money for just about anyone with skin in the game or newspapers reporting to publish. So now Sturgeon is controlling polling organisations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted July 24, 2016 Share Posted July 24, 2016 Suspect we'll see more polls once we are out of the "silly season" in news terms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ad Lib Posted July 24, 2016 Share Posted July 24, 2016 3 hours ago, Mortar Bored said: So now Sturgeon is controlling polling organisations? No... There's no incentive to hold polls if it's not something that's going to happen, or if the terms on which the debate is being argued now are going to be fundamentally different from those that they are going to be fought on when it actually is scheduled to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjw Posted July 24, 2016 Share Posted July 24, 2016 Suspect we'll see more polls once we are out of the "silly season" in news terms. About 2019 then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotThePars Posted July 24, 2016 Share Posted July 24, 2016 1 hour ago, LongTimeLurker said: Suspect we'll see more polls once we are out of the "silly season" in news terms. Look forward to the first poll in about 2024 then at this rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotThePars Posted July 24, 2016 Share Posted July 24, 2016 25 minutes ago, mjw said: About 2019 then? FFS I should've read the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArabianKnight Posted July 25, 2016 Share Posted July 25, 2016 On 24/07/2016 at 21:02, Ad Lib said: No... There's no incentive to hold polls if it's not something that's going to happen, or if the terms on which the debate is being argued now are going to be fundamentally different from those that they are going to be fought on when it actually is scheduled to happen. On 24/07/2016 at 17:48, Ad Lib said: There's been few polls because Sturgeon doesn't actually want to call indyref2. Yet. There is too much uncertainty about what progress will be made on Brexit, how specifically it will affect Scotland, and how that alters both the nature of the argument and the desire on the part of the SNP, or indeed the public, to hold a second one. My guess is she would prefer not to hold one during this Parliament but that her hand might, perversely given the May Holyrood election rhetoric, be forced on her by a combination of those within her party and by her opponents if she is perceived (whether rightly or wrongly) to be using Brexit talks opportunistically rather than trying to secure the "best" deal for the UK. Any polls right now would be volatile, a poor benchmark and a waste of money for just about anyone with skin in the game or newspapers reporting to publish. Yes and No. You aren't "wrong" with the points you are making but there's also the counter argument. There's plenty of private polling going on just now; anecdotal evidence alert, I've done a couple of land line polls for TNS and ICM. I also know of a few others that done the same polls within the last week. We won't see a public poll until next week, favourable or not the SNP and the other interested parties will want to shape opinion as much as gauge it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted July 26, 2016 Share Posted July 26, 2016 Was polled yesterday, asked specifically the independence question, how I voted last time and if I'd changed my mind due to leave vote. Last question was just referenced as yes yes for first two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted July 27, 2016 Share Posted July 27, 2016 Did the recent YouGov poll not ask the indy question? Strange if it didn't.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted July 30, 2016 Share Posted July 30, 2016 On 7/27/2016 at 06:46, Colkitto said: Did the recent YouGov poll not ask the indy question? Strange if it didn't.... 47% Yes 53% No http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ihg707zgux/ScottishTrackers_25-Jul-2016_Indy_W.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kejan Posted July 30, 2016 Share Posted July 30, 2016 Makes some Yes targets of 60% in polling pretty much impossible to reach before 20-30 years if ever at all. Whilst it has calmed down a lot since the Brexit panic, the high consistent polling for indy will never come, in my opinion. Give it a bash again and two scenarios - We lose. We wind up this 'Scottish' identity and get back to the Cornwall, North East England we deserve to be. I f yes win, then we become normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted July 30, 2016 Share Posted July 30, 2016 4 hours ago, welshbairn said: 47% Yes 53% No http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ihg707zgux/ScottishTrackers_25-Jul-2016_Indy_W.pdf The old c***s are still the problem. Or at least three out of four are. #prayforharshwinter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sooky Posted July 30, 2016 Share Posted July 30, 2016 I guess this is the issue for the Yes lot. People value UK membership more than EU membership. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Antlion Posted July 30, 2016 Share Posted July 30, 2016 1 hour ago, Sooky said: I guess this is the issue for the Yes lot. People value UK membership more than EU membership. The UK isn't a club of which a nation can apply to join as a "member". It's a unitary nation state designed to deprive its home nations of statehood by creating a superstate. It's disingenuous to claim that Scotland can be a "member" of one union or another - so naturally the British Nationalists will try and insinuate that that's the case. The choice is between Scotland being a region of a state, or a state joined in equal partnership with other states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted July 30, 2016 Share Posted July 30, 2016 Far more Snp voters voted Leave than the other parties in Scotland. Was that because they were confused about tactical voting like Granny or do they think that shared power with Brussels is as bad as Westminster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.