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Why no polls?


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There's been few polls because Sturgeon doesn't actually want to call indyref2. Yet. There is too much uncertainty about what progress will be made on Brexit, how specifically it will affect Scotland, and how that alters both the nature of the argument and the desire on the part of the SNP, or indeed the public, to hold a second one.

My guess is she would prefer not to hold one during this Parliament but that her hand might, perversely given the May Holyrood election rhetoric, be forced on her by a combination of those within her party and by her opponents if she is perceived (whether rightly or wrongly) to be using Brexit talks opportunistically rather than trying to secure the "best" deal for the UK.

Any polls right now would be volatile, a poor benchmark and a waste of money for just about anyone with skin in the game or newspapers reporting to publish.

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There's been few polls because Sturgeon doesn't actually want to call indyref2. Yet. There is too much uncertainty about what progress will be made on Brexit, how specifically it will affect Scotland, and how that alters both the nature of the argument and the desire on the part of the SNP, or indeed the public, to hold a second one.

My guess is she would prefer not to hold one during this Parliament but that her hand might, perversely given the May Holyrood election rhetoric, be forced on her by a combination of those within her party and by her opponents if she is perceived (whether rightly or wrongly) to be using Brexit talks opportunistically rather than trying to secure the "best" deal for the UK.

Any polls right now would be volatile, a poor benchmark and a waste of money for just about anyone with skin in the game or newspapers reporting to publish.


So now Sturgeon is controlling polling organisations?
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3 hours ago, Mortar Bored said:


So now Sturgeon is controlling polling organisations?

No...

There's no incentive to hold polls if it's not something that's going to happen, or if the terms on which the debate is being argued now are going to be fundamentally different from those that they are going to be fought on when it actually is scheduled to happen.

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On 24/07/2016 at 21:02, Ad Lib said:

No...

There's no incentive to hold polls if it's not something that's going to happen, or if the terms on which the debate is being argued now are going to be fundamentally different from those that they are going to be fought on when it actually is scheduled to happen.

 

On 24/07/2016 at 17:48, Ad Lib said:

There's been few polls because Sturgeon doesn't actually want to call indyref2. Yet. There is too much uncertainty about what progress will be made on Brexit, how specifically it will affect Scotland, and how that alters both the nature of the argument and the desire on the part of the SNP, or indeed the public, to hold a second one.

My guess is she would prefer not to hold one during this Parliament but that her hand might, perversely given the May Holyrood election rhetoric, be forced on her by a combination of those within her party and by her opponents if she is perceived (whether rightly or wrongly) to be using Brexit talks opportunistically rather than trying to secure the "best" deal for the UK.

Any polls right now would be volatile, a poor benchmark and a waste of money for just about anyone with skin in the game or newspapers reporting to publish.

Yes and No.

 

You aren't "wrong" with the points you are making but there's also the counter argument.

 

There's plenty of private polling going on just now; anecdotal evidence alert, I've done a couple of land line polls for TNS and ICM.

 

I also know of a few others that done the same polls within the last week.

 

We won't see a public poll until next week, favourable or not the SNP and the other interested parties will want to shape opinion as much as gauge it.

 

 

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Makes some Yes targets of 60% in polling pretty much impossible to reach before 20-30 years if ever at all. Whilst it has calmed down a lot since the Brexit panic, the high consistent polling for indy will never come, in my opinion. 

Give it a bash again and two scenarios  -

We lose. We wind up this 'Scottish' identity  and get back to the Cornwall, North East England we deserve to be.

I f yes win, then we become normal.

 

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4 hours ago, welshbairn said:

The old c***s are still the problem.  Or at least three out of four are.

#prayforharshwinter

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1 hour ago, Sooky said:

I guess this is the issue for the Yes lot. People value UK membership more than EU membership. IMG_1469888180.257027.jpg

The UK isn't a club of which a nation can apply to join as a "member". It's a unitary nation state designed to deprive its home nations of statehood by creating a superstate. It's disingenuous to claim that Scotland can be a "member" of one union or another - so naturally the British Nationalists will try and insinuate that that's the case. The choice is between Scotland being a region of a state, or a state joined in equal partnership with other states.

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Far more Snp voters voted Leave than the other parties in Scotland. Was that because they were confused about tactical voting like Granny or do they think that shared power with Brussels is as bad as Westminster?

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