Jump to content

Why no polls?

Dingus son of Dork

Recommended Posts

sophia

sophia

Posted
Posted

It almost feels like it should be a formality and I'd be astonished if all but the Tory 20% don't come around to the same way of thinking.

To have the British Prime Minister grasping the hand of a man who sees his country as the moral equivalent to that run by an imperialist gangster shows how rotten some of the world has become and I happen to think that a European Scotland is more civilised than that.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 616
  • Created
  • Last Reply
milton75

milton75

Posted
Posted
On 2/1/2017 at 18:38, Antlion said:

I'd imagine the majority of "Yes" voters changed to "Yes". Few, I would imagine, were born and raised to be against the centuries-old status quo.

 

On 2/1/2017 at 19:06, Loondave1 said:


So the majority of YES voters used to be NO voters.Think your making it up now to be honest.

I can only speak from personal experience, so this is by no means scientific, but I began voting SNP/thinking about wanting an Indy Scotland around 98, 99. Disenfranchisement with Westminster being a primary motivation, but also a wider mistrust that Labour would ever successfully do anything for the poorest in society. I remember quite distinctly that most of my friends at the time (let's say a circle of about 30-40 close and less close that were in the same age group, i.e. leaving uni and getting first real jobs) disagreed with me. Most saw devolution as a decent thing, but some didn't even want that.

17 or so years later and I can count on one hand the number that didn't vote Yes and don't now want Indy Scotland. So I would say that it's quite possible that a large number of Yes voters, if not most, used to be in the No camp. I will reiterate the proviso that my small sample of mainly lefty middle-class wasters aren't representative of the wider population however.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
John Lambies Doos

John Lambies Doos

Posted
Posted
I can only speak from personal experience, so this is by no means scientific, but I began voting SNP/thinking about wanting an Indy Scotland around 98, 99. Disenfranchisement with Westminster being a primary motivation, but also a wider mistrust that Labour would ever successfully do anything for the poorest in society. I remember quite distinctly that most of my friends at the time (let's say a circle of about 30-40 close and less close that were in the same age group, i.e. leaving uni and getting first real jobs) disagreed with me. Most saw devolution as a decent thing, but some didn't even want that.
17 or so years later and I can count on one hand the number that didn't vote Yes and don't now want Indy Scotland. So I would say that it's quite possible that a large number of Yes voters, if not most, used to be in the No camp. I will reiterate the proviso that my small sample of mainly lefty middle-class wasters aren't representative of the wider population however.


This. Similar experience to me.
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Granny Danger

Granny Danger

Posted
Posted
On 2/8/2017 at 11:16, capybara said:

If we are not an Independent country within the next 7 years , I will run down Princess St wearing nothing but a flimsy Union Jack.

I can think of some really good arguments in favour of Independence but stopping this from happening is the best one yet.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Fide

Fide

Posted
Posted

http://wingsoverscotland.com/kicking-down-the-doors/

Kicking down the doors

Posted on February 14, 2017 by Rev. Stuart Campbell

When we commissioned our latest opinion poll from Panelbase, we were aware that there’d been a lot of polls recently about independence and Brexit/the EU and even Westminster voting intentions, but surprisingly few on the next thing that Scots will actually go to polling stations for – the council elections in May.

labdisaster

That’s odd because it’s a pretty significant vote, and could lead to some fairly seismic changes in how the country is governed. Despite losing the popular vote for the first time in 2012, Labour are still the dominant force in Scotland’s town halls, running almost twice as many of the country’s 32 local authorities (either in sole control or in coalition/minority administrations) as the SNP – 16 to nine.

Depending on the outcome in May, the Nats could either secure a grip on all levels of Scottish elected politics for the first time ever, or a Tory/Labour alliance could keep most councils Unionist – something which could have all sorts of wider ramifications beyond local services. (That’s an article for another day.)

So the results below are pretty interesting.

 

Just before we get to them, a quick note on the stats. 83% of our respondents said they were “likely to vote” in the council elections – defined as rating your probability of doing so at either eight, nine or 10 out of 10.

It’s fairly stupendously unlikely that turnout will actually be anywhere near 83% – the figure in 2012 was 39.6%, and it only got to 52.8% even in 2007, when voters were at the polls anyway to vote in the Holyrood general election. So we’ve used the figures for “likely voters excluding Don’t Knows” in this post, because the chances are that in reality, people who don’t know who they’re voting for by now won’t vote at all.

(Full tables will of course be published on the Panelbase website shortly.)

The headline figures are:

SNP: 47%
Conservatives: 26%
Labour: 14%
Lib Dems: 5%
Greens: 4%
UKIP 3%
Other: 1%

Click the images below to enlarge and see various demographic breakdowns.

council1

council2

council3

The bullet points are:

  • there are no significant differences between genders
  • older age groups swing away from the SNP to the Tories
  • but the SNP are still the most popular party even among the elderly
  • people born in Scotland, or anywhere outside the UK, love the SNP
  • Scottish residents born elsewhere in the EU really hate the Tories
  • but people born in England are overwhelmingly Tory
  • almost 80% of 2014 Yes voters will vote SNP
  • 55% of Remain voters and 35% of Leave voters will vote SNP
  • the Tories are now more than twice as popular among 2014 No voters as Labour
  • 46% of Holyrood 2016 Labour voters now intend to vote for someone else

Make of all that what you will.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Fide

Fide

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Colkitto said:

Latest Panelbase poll on Independence

Yes 46%  No 54%

 

We've got about 18 months to get it over the 50% mark! 

 

Given where the last Yes movement started from, I'm more than happy with that as a starting point.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Colkitto

Colkitto

Posted
Posted
Just now, Fide said:

Given where the last Yes movement started from, I'm more than happy with that as a starting point.

Of course, Article 50 not yet triggered with all that that entails, and no indyref2 campaign yet started.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted

There are something like 180,000 EU Nationals on the electorate in Scotland.

They, and the younger generation, will probably make the difference next time round tbh 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • 2 weeks later...
ayrmad

ayrmad

Posted
Posted
On 15/02/2017 at 15:17, Karl Fletcher said:

There are something like 180,000 EU Nationals on the electorate in Scotland.

They, and the younger generation, will probably make the difference next time round tbh 

There are 3 times that amount from rUK, they'll probably swing it again.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...