The_Kincardine Posted July 16, 2016 Share Posted July 16, 2016 Talking points? Ayr beating Accies is the stand out and Albion Rovers getting a point vs Morton is pleasing. Last night? How was the DUFC vs Arbroath fixture? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted July 16, 2016 Share Posted July 16, 2016 In what way is Albion Rovers losing on penalties to The Famous pleasing to a gin-addled moron like yourself? Bizarre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandomGuy. Posted July 16, 2016 Share Posted July 16, 2016 Not sure how much to read into the results, half the teams likely aren't fit or even have a full squad yet. Biggest talking point is likely Dundee shitting themselves against East Fife. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Kincardine Posted July 16, 2016 Author Share Posted July 16, 2016 1 minute ago, vikingTON said: In what way is Albion Rovers losing on penalties to The Famous pleasing to a gin-addled moron like yourself? Bizarre. Your post explains it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunning1874 Posted July 16, 2016 Share Posted July 16, 2016 Dundee doing their best to Dundee yet another cup competition early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bennett Posted July 16, 2016 Share Posted July 16, 2016 At Mirren edging it against living, Dundee utd sneaking it against Arbroath last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Kincardine Posted July 16, 2016 Author Share Posted July 16, 2016 2 minutes ago, Dunning1874 said: Dundee doing their best to Dundee yet another cup competition early on. I missed that looking through the scores. Still, The Dee Boys are usually vociferous so we'll see a few of them posting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RangersRyan084 Posted July 16, 2016 Share Posted July 16, 2016 Thistle beat Airdrieonians 1-0 in what im sure was a dreadful match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerberus Posted July 16, 2016 Share Posted July 16, 2016 6 minutes ago, RangersRyan084 said: Thistle beat Airdrieonians 1-0 in what im sure was a dreadful match. It was like El Classico compared to the shite Motherwell and Rangers just served up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meth Damon Posted July 16, 2016 Share Posted July 16, 2016 44 minutes ago, vikingTON said: In what way is Albion Rovers losing on penalties to The Famous pleasing to a gin-addled moron like yourself? Bizarre. They didn't lose on penalties, they drew then lost the penalty shoot out. HTH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Kincardine Posted July 16, 2016 Author Share Posted July 16, 2016 Nade scoring for Stranraer? When did he transfer there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RangersRyan084 Posted July 16, 2016 Share Posted July 16, 2016 22 minutes ago, Cerberus said: It was like El Classico compared to the shite Motherwell and Rangers just served up. Real and Barca have gone downhill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
microdave Posted July 16, 2016 Share Posted July 16, 2016 3 hours ago, The_Kincardine said: Nade scoring for Stranraer? When did he transfer there? About ten days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunning1874 Posted July 17, 2016 Share Posted July 17, 2016 Obviously after one game it's too early to say how each group is going to look in the end, but what are people's thoughts on how many points are likely to be needed to be one of the best second placed teams? I remember seeing a table before the tournament started showing the probability of getting through the Euro 2016 groups based on your number of points and goal difference: I suppose something like that would take forever to make up for one of our resident statisticians? @craigkillie? Obviously 11 or 12 points guarantees you win the group. Moving beyond that, the permutations for each number of points: 10 points - three wins & a draw with no bonus point / 2 wins & 2 draws with 2 bonus points 9 points - 3 wins & a defeat / 2 wins & 2 draws with 1 bonus point / 1 win & 3 draws with 3 bonus points 8 points - 2 wins, a defeat & a draw with 1 bonus point / 2 wins & 2 draws with no bonus points / 1 win & 3 draws with 2 bonus points / 4 draws with bonus points You could finish second with 7 points as well but the chances of being one of the best second placed teams with that number of points are surely minuscule so I've stopped there. I know bugger all about calculating probabilities but I'd say it's looking pretty unlikely for teams to be going through with 8 points here. You'd think we'll end up with at least a couple of second placed teams on 9 points through seeded teams beating all the unseeded clubs then losing to the other seeded team. You could also see, say, Dundee United ending up on 9 via beating Dunfermline & Cowdenbeath then drawing with ICT. Beyond that a second placed team with 10 points isn't a wildly unrealistic scenario. Taking Group D as the example, Ross County & Raith both beat Alloa, Cove & Montrose. Raith & Ross County draw, with whoever wins the shootout topping the group on 11 and the second placed team on 10. Based on that I reckon we'll only have one second placed team with 8 points getting through at most, so they'll realistically need to be dishing out a pumping in one of their wins to go through on goal difference ahead of the others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craigkillie Posted July 17, 2016 Share Posted July 17, 2016 I was thinking about this at our game yesterday, and my initial thought was that 8 points would probably be enough. I feel like a few of the groups will have the Premiership side winning all 4 matches, which would leave the other clubs with a maximum of 9 points. I reckon some of the Championship and League 1 teams will take points off each other in these groups. It's hard to think about at the moment because it's the first time - and my head is thumping after a long haul flight so I can't be bothered trying to put together all the permutations for a group. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fuctifano Posted July 17, 2016 Share Posted July 17, 2016 Did a simulation based on entirely random results ( 40% home win, 30% draw, 30% away win) with a maximum score of 4-0 to stop mental GDs and I assume the home team wins every penalty shoot out. Started from scratch so ignored yesterday's results as I've obviously ranked all the teams as equal by doing random results. Won't be totally accurate for the reasons Craig listed above but might be a useful guide, or I could delete it in shame. I ran 1000 sims, and the smallest total to get through as one of the best 4 runners up was 6 points, +1 GD, 1 out of 1000 or 0.1% For the rest see the spoiler TL; DR version- 8 will more likely get you in than not, but 9 and a positive goal difference could still see you out, or you could scrape in with 6 or 7. Spoiler 6 points, +2 GD = 1.2% 6 points, +3 GD = 3.8% 7 points, -2 GD = 5.1% 7 points, -1 GD = 5.7% 7 points, 0 GD = 8.2% 7 points, + 1 GD = 13.9% 7 points, +2 GD = 27.1% 7 points, + 3 GD =44.3% 7 points, + 4 GD = 54.6% 8 points, -2 GD = 62.6% 8 points, -1 GD = 63.2% 8 points, 0 GD = 65.5% 8 points, +1 GD = 72% 8 points, +2 GD = 86.3% 8 points, + 3 GD = 93.6% 9 points, -2 GD = 98.7% 9 points, -1 GD = 98.7% 9 points, 0 GD = 98.8% 9 points, +1 GD = 99.1% 9 points, +2 GD = 99.6% 9 points, + 3 GD or 10 points = 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StewartyMac Posted July 17, 2016 Share Posted July 17, 2016 If we can beat Brechin and Elgin, we could go into the last game at McDiarmid reasonably secure of making it into the next round. As long as Saints beat Falkirk. Of course, it's the Albion, therefore we'll probably still finish bottom of the group. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandomGuy. Posted July 17, 2016 Share Posted July 17, 2016 From the FancyFitbaStats Twitter page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMMjag Posted July 17, 2016 Share Posted July 17, 2016 A v.v. useful and utterly flawless study. Just give us the cup now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RangersRyan084 Posted July 17, 2016 Share Posted July 17, 2016 Using stats i have found that our team get paid the most statistically. we win better luck next year chapioonieez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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