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Black Friday - financial crash thread


ICTChris

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The 8m number having issues with debt could rise substantially if they increase the base rate too fast. That would cause significant problems in the UK, which is why they have barely moved it.

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  • 3 months later...

A few positive months for GBP brought to a fairly sudden end today. Some relatively big movements down the way off the back of the most recent updates on the Brexit process. Shame it didn't happen before I was home last week.

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Not sure you can blame the global sell off all on Brexit.
 


The fall in the FTSE was part of a wider global picture which hit markets across the globe but I think he was referring to the value of the pound against other global currencies


It goes up slightly when the government appears to says something sensible and drops again when they assure their domestic base that they didn’t mean to.

It’s been oscillating between €1.12 and €1.14 since September

That said it was above €1.40 in the eve of referendum so the occasional press stories about the pound surging on the back of masterful work by Theresa May or collapsing after yet another Brexit blunder are always a little overstated
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I was looking at the rise and fall of sterling over a few years. In 2009 it was almost at parity for a while. 3rd Jan 2009 it was €1.04.

Can't remember why exactly. Possibly just because we'd massively cut interest rates after the 2008 crash.

Agree with you about the movements in the exchange rate being overdone on the back of 'perceived' good or bad news either way on Brexit.

Edited by Suspect Device
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11 minutes ago, Suspect Device said:

I was looking at the rise and fall of sterling over a few years. In 2009 it was almost at parity for a while.

Yep. Funnily enough it was the financial crash that got it there. That's how badly the financial markets think Brexit is going to affect us. Obviously these 'speculators' have never heard of German Cars, Canada, or that we won the war.

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I was looking at the rise and fall of sterling over a few years. In 2009 it was almost at parity for a while. 3rd Jan 2009 it was €1.04.

Can't remember why exactly. Possibly just because we'd massively cut interest rates after the 2008 crash.

Agree with you about the movements in the exchange rate being overdone on the back of 'perceived' good or bad news either way on Brexit.

 

And in 2009 the Greek sovereign debt crisis hadn’t kicked in yet

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  • 1 year later...
1 hour ago, Suspect Device said:

Wetherspoons up 11% today.

All the housebuilders up.

FTSE250 up over 4%.

So even though I didn't get the result I was hoping for, my pension pot will be get a boost. Evey cloud.......

 

Cold comfort.

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Would expect GBP to rise a little also. Predictions of a drift up to around 1.35, until Brexit is finalised. Then the shorters will have a field day again. No deal and you can expect 1.15 v the dollar and below parity with EUR.

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1 hour ago, Suspect Device said:

I'm half expecting no deal eventually but it will be drawn out to let Boris' backers get their positions first.

Much like betting on the horses, you can only hope to be on the right side of the fix.

Pretty much how it has all played out so far. The big money has consistently ended up on the right side, and I'll be hugely surprised if that changes. Watch the shorts and watch who has investments in US Pharma/Healthcare companies. I'm sure there will be plenty of the same names coming up, and if that is the case then you know exactly which side to back as a winner.

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Wetherspoons up 11% today.
All the housebuilders up.
FTSE250 up over 4%.
So even though I didn't get the result I was hoping for, my pension pot will be get a boost. Evey cloud.......
 
Nothing to do with there being a Tory government - it's because there is a clear majority and what is seen as stability.

It won't last once Brexit really hits.
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47 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

Nothing to do with there being a Tory government - it's because there is a clear majority and what is seen as stability.

It won't last once Brexit really hits.

Use it to your advantage.  Sell a significant proportion of your shares now and buy them back when they are cheaper if you feel Brexit will drag shares down.

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10 minutes ago, Shadow Play said:

Use it to your advantage.  Sell a significant proportion of your shares now and buy them back when they are cheaper if you feel Brexit will drag shares down.

If he has large cap ftse100 stocks who do substantial amounts of their business in USD/EUR or any other currency outside of GBP then that won't make you a profit. The price will inflate if anything, as the GBP value will be higher as a result of the strength of their non GBP business.

Shorting GBP on the other hand could make a lot of profit if sterling falls as many are tipping it to post Brexit.

Edited by Ross.
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2 minutes ago, Ross. said:

If he has large cap ftse100 stocks who do substantial amounts of their business in USD/EUR or any other currency outside of GBP then that won't make you a profit. The price will inflate if anything, as the GBP value relative to the other currencies will be higher.

Shorting GBP on the other hand could make a lot of profit if sterling falls as many are tipping it to post Brexit.

I agree, a large number of ftse 100 stocks earn a significant proportion of their earnings abroad.   Lloyds, and RBS on the other hand earn almost all their income in the UK.

The point I was trying to make was, people are still adamant that Brexit will cause all sorts of problems.  If they genuinely believe that and are in no doubt whatsoever that will be the case there are many ways of making money out of it, including shorting the £.  

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