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Elixir

2016 Scottish Parliament Election

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The SNP are well ahead in all the polls and will win easy but i cant see any complacency setting in,dont think sturgeon would let that happen.

Out of interest what's the best way for SNP supporter's to vote on the list vote,is it to vote SNP or another party like the greens ??

I think the SNP will fight a hard campaign, they've been in office a while now but not long enough to become complacent.

It will take something monumental to shift the polls and as the Forth Bridge issue showed the more the MSM attack the SNP the further it strengthens their support amongst the public.

Surely the way to return the maximum number of SNP MSPs is to vote that way in the constituency and the list. Only arguement for voting Green in the list is to support a different party who are also in favour of Independence.

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The SNP are well ahead in all the polls and will win easy but i cant see any complacency setting in,dont think sturgeon would let that happen.

Out of interest what's the best way for SNP supporter's to vote on the list vote,is it to vote SNP or another party like the greens ??

The second vote trick would only work if everybody voted say Green.

Which they won't.

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The North East Scotland regional list last time showed that the SNP can pick up extra seats even after winning all of the constituencies:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_East_Scotland_%28Scottish_Parliament_electoral_region%29

Many of the "experts" on this that the media go to for quotes appeared to be unaware that it could even happen.

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I'll be giving the SNP my list vote (Lothian) so at the very least they hoover up Margo MacDonald's old seat. The Green's will retain their one here anyway and they won't get any more than one per region. In the real world there's zero chance of every SNP supporter giving them that level of support.

RISE... :lol:

I reckon the Greens could ge t asecond seat in Lothian - would mean Andy Wightman in parliament which would be no bad thing.

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The interesting bits will be:

1. The size of the SNP win.

2. How well the Greens do.

3. The emergence of any other parties.

4. How the Labour vote holds up.

5. If the Tories make any gains.

6. How low the Lib Dems go.

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I reckon the Greens could ge t asecond seat in Lothian - would mean Andy Wightman in parliament which would be no bad thing.

I hope that happens. Wightman seems to be one of the good guys.

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Apparently if the SNP win the lions share of the constituency votes, because of the way D'hondt works if people give the likes of the greens their second vote, their working majority could actually drop by quite a lot. Its got to be SNP/SNP

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If my flat is sold by the time of the election I won't be voting, but wouldn't be voting SNP on either one, will be interesting how many people lael me some sort of 'unionist' because of it though. All I hope is that the SNP get an actual, effective opposition, one which most of Labour can't provide.

Edited by Menzel

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Apparently if the SNP win the lions share of the constituency votes, because of the way D'hondt works if people give the likes of the greens their second vote, their working majority could actually drop by quite a lot. Its got to be SNP/SNP

I'd quite like the greens having more influence.

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BREAKING: #sp16 poll

Seats predicted by Weber Shandwicks Scotland Votes tool.

SNP 70

LAB 26

CON 18

GREEN 8

LD 7

https://t.co/6N9qW15AFH

Labour, the Tories and the Lib Dems have been relentlessly focusing on perceived failures in hospitals, schools and policing under the SNP.

But the first opinion poll of election year suggests the strategy has not dented the public’s perception that the SNP are best equipped to run the devolved government in Edinburgh.

Only 20 per cent are dissatisfied with the Scottish Government’s performance on justice, 22 per cent on education and 27 per cent on health.

Sturgeon is also by far the most popular politician in the country.

She has a net favourability score of 27, miles ahead of Kezia Dugdale (-9), Ruth Davidson (-6), Willie Rennie (-7) and Patrick Harvie (0).

Looks like SNPbad isn't working too well.

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This SNP list vote wasted pish needs to be challenged. For one Scotland is not homogeneous. There is very good reason to think that in the borders, south west Scotland the highlands the SNP will absolutely be picking up list seats.

Even where the regions SNP should do very well in constituencies the North East showed last time you can win them all and still pick up a list seat.

I see Rise are still struggling to break through that tricky 0% barrier.

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Apparently if the SNP win the lions share of the constituency votes, because of the way D'hondt works if people give the likes of the greens their second vote, their working majority could actually drop by quite a lot. Its got to be SNP/SNP

It actually means that the list quota goes up by significant proportions, meaning that the SNP would, for example, need significantly more amounts of votes for a list candidate, increasing after each one. Compared with supporting another pro-independence party, SNP/SNP would in many areas likely be a wasted vote in favour of helping others (particularly Labour) get in,

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S3xy Scottish Socialism, on 13 Jan 2016 - 20:57, said:S3xy Scottish Socialism, on 13 Jan 2016 - 20:57, said:

Hopefully people aren't daft enough to vote SNP in the list vote as well, unless they want to give the britnat shitebags a helping hand.

You say this - but what's the most 'sensible' option for the list vote? I've not kept up to date at all, and had planned on going all out with SNP, I take it this isn't the brightest idea?

ETA: For anyone that wants to give this clueless fool advice, I'll be voting in the Dundee West area if that helps to pick a 'list' nomination.

Edited by Ludo *1

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You say this - but what's the most 'sensible' option for the list vote? I've not kept up to date at all, and had planned on going all out with SNP, I take it this isn't the brightest idea?

ETA: For anyone that wants to give this clueless fool advice, I'll be voting in the Dundee West area if that helps to pick a 'list' nomination.

Firstly I would say vote for the party you support.

However if you want to get into the maths let's look at the north east result in 2011. Despite winning every constituency seat the SNP were still able to pick up an additional seat on the list. The last seat on the list.

The scores on the doors for that last seat were:

SNP 12791

Tory 12560

Lab 10973

Green 10407

Lib 9089

All socialist parties combined 2700.

So, the Greens were nowhere near getting that last seat and a drop in the SNP vote would have seen another unionist get in. The greens would have to increase their vote by 20%

If you want to vote Green because you like the Greens then fire on. If you want an SNP majority vote SNP both votes. To say SNP is a waste on the list is just bollocks though.

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SNP get 2 list seats on these figures according to Scotland Votes

On a blanket application of the numbers. The SNP won't get the same number of constituency votes in Berwickshire as they do in Dundee east.

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You say this - but what's the most 'sensible' option for the list vote? I've not kept up to date at all, and had planned on going all out with SNP, I take it this isn't the brightest idea?

ETA: For anyone that wants to give this clueless fool advice, I'll be voting in the Dundee West area if that helps to pick a 'list' nomination.

Unless you are absolutely certain about the result of every constituency result across your entire region, splitting your vote is just as likely to elect additional unionists as it is to elect other indy-supporting parties.

The Scot Goes Pop blog has some interesting articles on the maths. Without the previous knowledge of the constituency result, any vote apart from SNP:SNP is a huge gamble and one I won't be taking.

Simple rule for any SNP supporter would be to do the opposite of anything Kevthedense suggests.

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Unless you are absolutely certain about the result of every constituency result across your entire region, splitting your vote is just as likely to elect additional unionists as it is to elect other indy-supporting parties.

The Scot Goes Pop blog has some interesting articles on the maths. Without the previous knowledge of the constituency result, any vote apart from SNP:SNP is a huge gamble and one I won't be taking.

Simple rule for any SNP supporter would be to do the opposite of anything Kevthedense suggests.

Surely things can change. Just look at the fortunes of the SNP in the last 5 years. I'll give the SNP my constituency vote but the Greens are probably getting my list vote. Parties who don't, as a minimum, support Devo Max/Federalism, have no chance of ever getting my vote.

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